DFS Alerts
Orlando Arcia (228 wRC+ last seven days) bats second against debuting lefty Dietrich Enns
Dietrich Enns was picked up by the Twins in the Jaime Garcia trade from the Yankees last week. The 26 year-old lefty is nowhere to be found on prospect lists and not even available on either site, but it’s still worth examining the matchup from the Milwaukee standpoint. The Brewers actually have a lower HR rate vs LHP (15.3 HR/FB vs 18.4 HR/FB) than RHP despite the perception that it’s a lineup full of RH power. That may have been true in the past and still is to some extent, but Travis Shaw and Eric Thames have made it a more balanced lineup this season. Orlando Arcia bumps up to second in the lineup tonight and it’s certainly not his performance against LHP this year that’s the cause for this move (84 wRC+, .082 ISO). However, he does have a 228 wRC+ and 40 Hard% over the last week and a reasonable cost on either site. Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Jesus Aguilar, and Keon Broxton all have a an ISO above .200 vs LHP this year, Broxton the only one of that group with a wRC+ below 120. While Braun (165 wRC+, 40 Hard%) is the only one of the four with a wRC+ above 89 over the last week, each of the other three (Santana, Aguilar, Broxton) all have a hard hit rate of at least 50%. Aguilar may be of particular value on FanDuel for just $2.1K. Of course, in order to have value, the Brewers need to make contact. They strike out a lot against pitchers from either side and Enns has had a strikeout rate above 19.5% at every stop as a professional where he’s had more than six innings since 2012. Important to note that on the other side of this matchup, Zach Davies has gone seven innings in four straight with a 19.3 Hard%, but Max Kepler, Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano all have an ISO above .200 against RHP this year and all except Sano have a wRC+ above 160 over the last week. All except Dozier have a hard hit rate above 40% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Jesus Aguilar, Keon Broxton, Dietrich Enns, Zach Davies, Max Kepler, Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario
Jacob deGrom leads Thursday night's starting pitchers with a 13.8% SwStr%
Jacob deGrom is set to take the mound tonight on the road against the Philadelphia Phillies in search of another outing with eight or more strikeouts, which would give him five such starts in his last six contests. deGrom has continued to look like his old self throughout this entire season, but more specifically in the strikeout department. In his first two seasons in the Majors, he notched a 25.5% strikeout rate and 11.8% swinging strike rate in 2014 and a 27.3% strikeout rate and 12.7% swinging strike rate in 2015, meaning that he has seemingly reverted back to the consistent strikeout pitcher that’s he had been for the early stages of his career this season. These statistics just further suggest that last year’s dip in strikeouts was likely the anomaly of the sample set considering deGrom’s 28.8% strikeout rate and 13.8% swinging strike rate through 22 starts would both set new career-highs and are at least somewhat within the range of his 2015 numbers. Adding to the appeal of deGrom on Thursday’s slate is a fantastic matchup with a Phillies squad that is essentially a bottom of the barrel offense against right-handed pitching overall, ranking 24th in wRC+ (88), 24th in wOBA (.310), and 26th in ISO (.152) while striking out at a 23.2% clip that is good for sixth-highest in the Majors. With a salivating matchup on paper, deGrom is arguably one of the safest and highest upside starting pitching options on tonight’s slate, even at his high price point. This looks to be one of those situations where the reward greatly outweighs the risk, and deGrom remains the pitcher with the highest likelihood to post a tournament winning score across the industry this evening.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Taking a contrarian approach to the L.A. Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks matchup
The Dodgers have a 116 wRC+ against LHP (third) and 113 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers (fifth). Arizona would appear an excellent spot to load up on Dodger RHBs against a rookie lefty who has allowed RHBs a 42.9 Hard% and 30.8 GB% through two starts. Player should certainly consider Kike Hernandez (116 wRC+, .261 ISO vs LHP since 2016) and Austin Barnes (142 wRC+, .265 ISO vs LHP since 2016) on either site and Logan Forsythe (133 wRC+, .182 ISO vs LHP since 2016) on DraftKings if looking to pay up for high priced pitching tonight, but there’s a high risk, potentially profitable contrarian way to view this matchup as well. While several players will be on this side tonight, Anthony Banda was ranked a top 100 prospect by Fangraphs with an above average strikeout rate at almost every stop of the minors. Yu Darvish has massive upside, but has been inconsistent this year and generates a lot of fly balls. LHBs have a 33.6 Hard% against him since last season, RHBs have just a .275 wOBA and 29 Hard%, but 37.5 GB%. Five times in 23 starts, he’s allowed multiple HRs this year, including twice in his last three starts. The fact that Arizona bats are not priced down will make this more difficult, but they are likely to have nearly no ownership. Paul Goldschmidt (163 wRC+, .286 ISO), J.D. Martinez (126 wRC+, .285 ISO) and Jake Lamb (148 wRC+, .293 ISO) have all been torching RHP this year. Arizona, as a team, is tied for sixth with a 110 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers. All three of those batters have an sOPS+ above 130 against fly ball pitchers this year (Baseball-Reference), while the two RHBs have a hard hit rate above 60% over the last week. Yu Darvish can still have a great game, striking out 12 while allowing two or three HRs. He did exactly that three starts back. While most players will be on Dodger bats in this matchup, there’s a potential argument to be made for going the other way for those with high risk tolerance.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Jake Lamb, Yu Darvish, Enrique Hernandez, Austin Barnes, Logan Forsythe, Anthony Banda Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge and Jose Altuve are top projected batters tonight
Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge and Jose Altuve are grouped closely together as the top projected batters tonight (RotoGrinders Player Projections). While each is an MVP candidate this season, examining matchups puts Harper in the worst spot against Dan Straily, who has actually been better against LHBs since last season (.292 wOBA, 30.1 Hard%). However, Straily generates lots of contact in the air, always a danger against Harper (232 sOPS+ vs fly ball pitchers). Judge has been a bit worse, while Marco Estrada a bit better in recent weeks, but the overall results show another fly ball pitcher with a reverse platoon split, this time in favor of the batter. RHBs have a .322 wOBA, 32.8 Hard% and 30.1 GB% against Estrada since last season. Judge has a .320 ISO vs RHP this year. Altuve resides at the top of the top projected offense tonight. He has a 171 wRC+ vs LHP this year and while Carlos Rodon is talented, RHBs have a .341 wOBA against him since last season. Brett Gardner gives the Yankees two bats in the top five overall and doubles as the top projected value on DraftKings (2.38 Pt/$/K) among those projected for at least eight points. FanDuel has several nearly minimum priced batters who project well, including Kike Hernandez (4.17 Pt/$/K) and Austin Barnes (3.78 Pt/$/K) from the Dodgers and Jesus Aguilar (3.82 Pt/$/K). All three are facing rookie LHPs, Aguilar one making his major league debut (Dietrich Enns).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Jose Altuve, Brett Gardner, Austin Barnes, Enrique Hernandez, Jesus Aguilar Danny Salazar has struck out 28 of 71 batters over three starts; Rays have a 27.8 K% last seven days
While nine of 20 pitches on the night slate have a 23% or better strikeout rate, there are four high priced standouts on the slate. James Paxton is second best according to RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight. He has struck out at least seven in six straight and eight of nine with at least six innings in eight straight starts. His 1.7% Barrels/BBE is lowest on the board with 29.9% 95+ mph EV. The Angels don’t strike out a lot, but with a lot, but have just an 85 wRC+ on the road and 84 wRC+ with an 8.8 HR/FB vs LHP. Lining up predominantly RH should not be an issue for Paxton either, as RHBs have just a .266 wOBA against him this year and not much higher for his career. Jacob deGrom is the favorite among the Player Projections. He lasted fewer than six innings for the first time in nearly two months last time out and while three runs (two HRs) is not great, striking out eight Dodgers over five innings should be considered a victory. His 13.9 K% is best on the slate and a transition to Philadelphia puts him in a favorable spot (88 wRC+, 15.2 K-BB% vs RHP, 7.3 HR/FB last seven days). Danny Salazar has struck out 28 of 71 batters since returning from the DL, allowing hard contact on just 26.3% of batted balls over that span. While Tampa Bay has a dangerous offense and he’s struggled with contact and walks in the past, it’s one of the highest strikeout upside spots on the board (Rays 25 K% vs RHP, 27.8 K% last seven days). The Daily K Predictor has he and deGrom in a virtual tie with 8.8 each tonight. Yu Darvish should benefit from a park upgrade on most days with a trade to the Dodgers and is at least no stranger to pitching in difficult environments, which should help with this trip to Arizona. He’s been inconsistent this season, but still has the ability to pop off a huge start, as is evident by sandwiching 22 strikeouts around a 10 run outing in his last three starts. Sonny Gray has just a pedestrian 23.4 K% among this group, but pitched better than his results in his Yankee debut with the defense kicking the ball around the infield. Where he’s excelled recently has been contact management. He’s produced a 60 GB% and -1.3 Hard-Soft% over his last seven starts.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: James Paxton, Jacob deGrom, Yu Darvish, Sonny Gray Giancarlo Stanton has a league leading five HRs over the last week and three career against Tanner Roark
The only two batters on the slate with a 300+ wRC+ over the last week (10 PA min.) have sample size issues. Adrian Sanchez (370 wRC+, 40 Hard%, 0 HRs) has 11 PAs and Tyler White (342 wRC+, 50 Hard%, three HRs) has 12 PAs, but has at least left the yard a few times. Both have hit the ball fairly hard with a couple of the more favorable matchups on the slate against Dan Straily and Carlos Rodon. It says more about the difficulty of the slate than the pitchers themselves that they rank among the top matchups for batters though. Mike Trout (293 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, three HRs) is always matchup proof and would seem an even greater play on such a tough slate, but faces one of the top pitchers in the league in James Paxton (LHBs .286 wOBA since last season) in a tough park in Seattle. Trout has struck out 11 times in 24 PAs with two doubles against Paxton. Danny Valencia (290 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) should be in the lineup against Tyler Skaggs (RHBs .321 wOBA, 31.2 Hard% since 2016). Tim Beckham (284 wRC+, 34.8 Hard%, three HRs) faces Chris Smith (RHBs .278 wOBA, 30.1 Hard% in small sample since 2016). Paul Goldschimdt (264 wRC+, 71.4 Hard%, four HRs) has the top hard hit rate over the last week, but faces Yu Darvish (RHBs .275 wOBA, 29 Hard% since 2016). Giancarlo Stanton (253 wRC+, 60 Hard%, five HRs) and Brian Dozier (252 wRC+, 32 Hard%, five HRs) are tied for the lead with five HRs each over the last week. Stanton faces Tanner Roark (RHBs .283 wOBA, 22.3 Hard% since 2016), whom he has three HRs and just five strikeouts in 34 PAs against. Dozier faces Zach Davies (RHBs .312 wOBA, 30.4 Hard% career), who has just a 19.3 Hard% over his last four starts.
Other tagged players: Adrian Sanchez, Tyler White, Mike Trout, Danny Valencia, Tim Beckham, Paul Goldschmidt, Brian Dozier Only four teams with an implied run line above five with nine of 20 pitchers above a 23 K%
Only four teams have an implied run line above five runs on a 10 game slate with one additional one above 4.61 runs on a slate with several high priced arms and a lot of high strikeout rates. Nine out of 20 pitchers, almost half, have a strikeout rate above 23%. Another issue is that Arizona is the only extremely positive run environment in play tonight and that features Yu Darvish against a top 100 prospect. While there are few poor overall pitchers, there are areas that players can attack. Carlos Rodon is vulnerable to RHBs (.341 wOBA since last season), but with just a 28.3 Hard%, it’s mostly due to poor control and while the Astros have the highest implied run line on the board (5.29) and will be popular, he’s come on of late, striking out nine or more in three straight. RHBs have a .367 wOBA against Wade Miley (33.3 Hard%) since last year. All batters have a 40 GB% and 38.8 Hard% against him over the last month, but the A’s have just one really potent bat against LHP and Ryon Healy (190 wRC+, .315 ISO) has been struggling (53 wRC+ last seven days). The Mets have an implied run line of just 4.36 and likely won’t be very popular against a pitcher with a strong reputation in Vince Velasquez. However, Philadelphia is a bandbox and LHBs have hit him hard since the beginning of last year (.347 wOBA, 34.3 Hard%). Jay Bruce may be gone, but Michael Conforto (164 wRC+, .285 ISO vs RHP this season) and Curtis Granderson (112 wRC+, .240 ISO vs RHP this season) remain. Lastly, Dan Straily may be a pitcher to attack tonight with same handed batters. While RHBs have just a .320 wOBA against him since last season, that comes with a 35.5 Hard% and 31.5 GB% with 33 of his 50 HRs allowed. Ryan Zimmermann (132 wRC+, .256 ISO) and Anthony Rendon (136 wRC+, .231 ISO) are both much improved against RHP this year.
Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Ryon Healy, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Yu Darvish, Anthony Banda, Carlos Rodon, Wade Miley, Vince Velasquez Clint Frazier scratched Wednesday; Garrett Cooper replaces and will bat eighth
Clint Frazier has officially been scratched from the New York Yankees lineup for tonight’s game against the Toronto Blue Jays due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Garrett Cooper, who will take over the first base duties and bat eighth. This change in the field will move Aaron Judge, who was supposed to be the designated hitter, to right field while Chase Headley will now serve as the designated hitter. Since Cooper is slotting directly into Fraziers’s spot in the batting order, the remainder of the Yankees previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Pete Caldera Other tagged players: Garrett Cooper Only one game with rain concerns in Wednesday's MLB weather forecast
It’s a quiet night on the weather front across Major League Baseball, as the only contest receiving any sort of risk classification is the game in Atlanta between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves, where Kevin Roth has the situation graded as YELLOW/ORANGE for the possibility of a late start with a batch of showers slowly moving towards the stadium. A late start would be a huge plus for the risk of starting pitchers in this matchup but hitters remain firmly in play given the overall low postponement chances. Be sure to check out Kevin Roth’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to sign up for RotoGrinders premium content, as Kevin will be posting updates and answering weather-related questions in the premium chat for the final hour before lock all season long.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Trevor Cahill has a .368 BABIP over his last six starts despite a 26.6% HH%
Trevor Cahill has been extremely inconsistent in his six starts since returning from an injury that had previously landed him on the disabled list. Tonight, he’ll face off against the St. Louis Cardinals trying to break out of a slump that has seen him allow five earned runs in two of his previous three outings while failing to record more than three strikeouts in any of those aforementioned starts. With that said, Cahill still remains as one of the several pitchers this season that had seen a drastic increase in his strikeout rate over his typical career numbers, evidenced by his measly 17.2% career punch out rate. However, through 13 starts this season, his strikeout rate is all the way up to 25.3% and is even supported by a 12.0% swinging strike rate, meaning that this newfound strikeout ability is more than sustainable if he is able to continue inducing that many swings and misses in or around the strike zone. Even if those numbers regress a small amount following the stint on the disabled list, Cahill would still find himself in the category of pitchers with above-average strikeout ability. In addition to the increased strikeouts, Cahill has managed to induce groundballs at a 55.4% clip, which is something he has always been able to do well but is extra impressive considering he isn’t sacrificing any of his groundball ability to inflate the strikeout numbers. He also will receive the added benefit of squaring off with a Cardinals lineup Wednesday night that is nothing special against right-handed pitching, ranking 15th in wRC+ (97) and 20th in ISO (.163), while striking out 21.9% of the time, average enough to land right in the middle of the pack among MLB teams but still absolutely remains exploitable. The Cardinals do draw walks at an above-average 9.0% rate which is at least semi-concerning with Cahill’s recent regression in the walk department (9.2% BB%) over earlier season totals. However, Cahill possesses more than enough of an ability to post a reputable outing that would pay off his affordable salary on DraftKings, making him a viable SP2 in large-field tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs Lucas Duda scratched Wednesday; Trevor Plouffe to play 1B and bat 6th, Brad Miller up to the #2 spot
Plouffe will now play first base and bat sixth, while Brad Miller will slot up to the #2 spot from his original spot in the order. Duda’s absence is related to a left thumb contusion, but there is no word on how long it will keep him sidelined. It doesn’t appear likely to force a DL stint at this point.
As reported by: @Rays Other tagged players: Trevor Plouffe, Brad Miller
Bartolo Colon has posted a 10.5% K% and 42.4% HH% in four starts with the Minnesota Twins
Bartolo Colon currently finds himself in the midst of a stretch since signing with the Minnesota Twins where he hasn’t been completely horrible. In fact, he’s managed to “limit” his opponents to four earned runs or less in each of those four starts, and somehow was able to cap it off with a complete game against the Texas Rangers his last time out. He’ll take the mound tonight for the fifth time as a member of the Twins rotation against a powerful Milwaukee Brewers lineup that ranks 10th in ISO (.186) against right-handed pitching, putting them in the perfect position to take advantage of a fastball pitcher like Colon that struggles striking hitters out (13.1% K%). On the year, Colon has been substantially worse against left-handed batters, evidenced by a 43.9% fly ball rate and 40.4% hard hit rate compared to a more respectable 50.6% groundball rate and 30.5% hard hit rate versus righties. Unfortunately, this Brewers squad does somewhat lack the ability to go left-handed, as Eric Thames, Travis Shaw, and Eric Sogard are the only lefties that can be realistically expected to be in Milwaukee’s lineup this evening. Meaning, the aforementioned Shaw (144 wRC+, .401 wOBA, .270 ISO vs RHP), Thames (134 wRC+, .385 wOBA, .278 ISO vs RHP), and Sogard (114 wRC+, .355 wOBA vs RHP) will be the premier options from this Brewers lineup should they each crack the lineup Wednesday night. With that said, Colon isn’t immune to right-handed batters by any means, but he certainly does have a better ability to control batted ball outcomes on a more consistent basis, which makes guys like Ryan Braun (119 wRC+, .363 wOBA, .247 ISO vs RHP) and Domingo Santana (117 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .184 ISO vs RHP) more effective as tournament options that can be included in a stack than core pieces to a cash game lineup.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Eric Thames, Eric Sogard, Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Bartolo Colon Main slate pitching much less cut and dry than last night's Sale/Kluber show
Deciding on an arm was relatively easy last night, with your main decision being whether or not to roll with Kluber or Sale – both of whom threw gems. Tonight is much less straightforward, as we do have a handful of high-end arms on the hill, but none that can quite match the skill level of the two aces of Tuesday night. Masahiro Tanaka has seen some notable improvement of late in terms of both home runs allowed and strikeouts – he’s allowed just six HRs over his last eight starts (a noticeable improvement over his early season numbers) and has struck out at least five in ten straight starts with a 27.6 K-BB% and 50.6 GB%. He shut this lineup down in the last meeting between these teams and has double-digit strikeout upside once again. Justin Verlander is an option that may get a little overlooked, but that may not have been the case if this game was slated to play in Pittsburgh, where power generally goes to die. Verlander has went at least seven innings with eight Ks in three of his last four starts, and while he is still allowing a little more hard contact than we’d like, the Pirates aren’t a team we’d expect to take advantage of that. Collin McHugh is another interesting name taking on the bottom-dwelling White Sox, who have sold away most of their intriguing parts as their season has continued to fall apart. He hasn’t been exceptional, but McHugh has been at least serviceable in all three starts since returning from the DL, and he’ll step into his best match-up yet with a Chicago offense that ranked near the bottom of the league in wRC+ and ISO against RHP before the departure of Frazier and Cabrera. McHugh has had a SwStr% above 10% in all three starts, which does suggest that he should have a shot to hit his ceiling at a middling price tag. For those looking to all-out punt the SP spot, Asher Wojciechowski has some appeal at home against the Padres, but he’s likely better suited as an SP2 on multi-SP sites rather than on a single pitcher site.
Houston tops Wednesday's main slate with 5.97 projected runs
They’re one of four teams above 5.0 projected runs Wednesday night – the others are the Nationals (5.41), Brewers (5.18), and the Yankees (5.1). The Astros will take on Miguel Gonzalez, who has the lowest strikeout rate among all starters today (12.7%) and is poor in the category against both RHB (12.2%) and LHB (13.2%) alike. Although he’s worse against lefties (221 TBF in 2017) – .365 wOBA, .226 ISO, 39.6% FB%, 35.5% Hard% – than righties (228 TBF) – .348 wOBA, .178 ISO, 40.3% FB%, 30.7% Hard% – he’s still worth attacking from the right side of the plate, especially considering that all four RHB projected to start have ISOs between .196 and .263. The Nationals will square off against Adam Conley, who’s demonstrated reverse splits this season. Against LHB (65 TBF), he’s given up a 36.0% Hard%, 42.9% FB%, and .225 ISO, which bodes well for lefties Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy, who typically do worse against LHP. Against righties, Conley has a similar batted ball profile – 37.6% Hard%, 40.5% FB% – but his ISO is lower (.156). Even so, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Matt Wieters, and Wilmer Difo all have ISOs between .222-.365 this season (sample sizes range from 43-92 PA), which means Conley may have trouble working through this lineup. Of course, Zimmerman (42.9% Hard% vs LHP this year) and Rendon (36.4% Hard%, 52.7% FB%) are the top targets among the righties to take advantage of Conley’s primary weaknesses. The Brewers will face fantasy-friendly Bartolo Colon, who pitched a complete-game win last time out – although he gave up nine hits, four earned runs, and a homer. Colon has the second lowest k-rate (13.1%), which is good news for a projected lineup that struggles in that area – they have a 24.2% K% against RHP this year. Colon has a worse batted ball profile against LHB (200 TBF) – 40.4% Hard%, 43.9% FB%, 36.3% GB% against 30.5% Hard%, 29.0% FB%, 50.6% GB% – but has given up a .240 ISO, .407 wOBA to RHB (204 TBF) as compared to .374 wOBA and .225 ISO to the other side. Finally, the Yankees are ready to rock against Nick Tepesch, who’s only made two appearances and pitched 5.2 innings over the past two seasons due to injury. Over the course of his career (224.2 IP), dating back to 2013, he’s posted a SIERA of 4.56 and a low K% of 14.0%. His handedness splits aren’t huge; against RHB (427 TBF), he’s allowed a .342 wOBA, .151 ISO, 31.0% Hard%, 34.4% FB% as compared to .340 wOBA, .191 ISO, 30.3% Hard%, 32.1% FB%. His only appearance in the majors this season was for the Twins on May 6th, when he gave up five hits despite lasting just 1.2 innings.
No weather concerns for Wednesday's afternoon games; one spot to monitor this evening
We’re not expecting any precipitation for the five early contests Wednesday. Three of the games will have temperatures in the 80s while the SEA-OAK and CHC-SFG contests are expected to be in the 60s at first pitch. We’re expecting gusts up to 25 mph out to left center in San Francisco, but that’s only a little stronger than normal. This evening, the PHI-ATL matchup may be in danger on the main slate. It’s currently considered YELLOW/ORANGE due to scattered showers and storms. It’ll be worth checking out the afternoon forecast when we’ll have a clearer picture of the situation. We’ll have an updated forecast around 5:30pm eastern available on our weather page as usual; following that post Kevin will be offering updates in premium chat from 6pm until lock. The link to our premium chat channel is below.
As reported by: RG Premium Chat