DFS Alerts
RH Detroit power grab top overall and value spots via RotoGrinders Player Projections
Tampa Bay may have a lead on the pack in terms of implied runs tonight, but Corey Dickerson trades spots with J.D. Martinez at the top of the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight, while Detroit is the only team to have two batters in the top sixth on either site, as Miguel Cabrera joins Martinez on FanDuel. It certainly makes sense facing a reverse platoon RHP with a severe HR problem in Josh Tomlin. Both have a .240 ISO and 42 Hard% against RHP since last season. Bryce Harper, Travis Shaw and Anthony Rizzo round out the top five on either site. Eric Thames is the top projected value on FanDuel (3.9 Pt/$/K) against Edinson Volquez, as his cost has now dipped below $3K. Volquez has walked 14 of his last 70 batters. Matt Olsen (3.2 Pt/$/K) grabs the top value projection on DraftKings against Mike Foltynewicz for $2.3K. LHBs have a .354 wOBA against Folty since last season. Among batters above $3K, Miguel Cabrera is projected as the top value (2.31 Pt/$/K).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Corey Dickerson, Bryce Harper, Travis Shaw, Anthony Rizzo, Eric Thames, Matt Olson
Lance McCullers (7.61) tops the Daily K Predictor tonight, Jacob deGrom leads Player Projections
Lance McCullers has the top strikeout projection according to the Daily K Predictor (7.61) on a slate full of high strikeout arms. Eight pitchers have at least a 12 SwStr% and 23 K% on the season. McCullers is followed closely by Robbie Ray (7.45) and Jacob Faria (7.39) with Alex Wood (6.95) the only other pitcher above 6.5. It’s actually Jacob deGrom that is neck and neck at the top of the overall RotoGrinders Player Projections with Alex Wood though. Both have a slight lead on Robbie Ray. deGrom has gone at least eight innings in three straight starts, while his SwStr% has held steady, but he seems to have traded off strikeouts (20.7%) for better contact results (54.7 GB%, 3.1 Hard-Soft%). Alex Wood has a 23.4 K-BB% that would be top six if qualified and the best ground ball rate in the majors (66.7%). The concern with him is usually workload. It’s unknown if 98 pitches in his last start helps or hurts his cause tonight as the cost has risen in a great spot in San Diego. McCullers has struck out eight in four straight, showing no rust from a couple of weeks on the DL in his last start. He has the top ground ball rate among qualifiers (63%) with the seventh best K-BB (22.4%). Just 27.8% of batted balls have exited the bat at 95 mph or better. Throwing just 76 pitches in his return from the DL, a pitch limitation could be a concern, but the matchup may be a bit better than perceived as the Yankees are missing some middle of the order bats. Jacob Faria has gone at least six innings in all four major league starts with a 23.3 K-BB%, matching the elite arms, but with just a 39.4 GB%, which might be an issue in the heat in Baltimore tonight. Robbie Ray still has that elite strikeout arm (32.9% over the last month), but has walked exactly four in three straight starts (twice against Philly) and has a hard hit rate above 40% in three of his last four. He does have a great matchup at home against the Rockies (17.4 K-BB% vs LHP, 18 wRC+, -9.5 Hard-Soft% over the last week).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Robbie Ray, Jacob Faria, Alex Wood, Jacob deGrom Evan Longoria has homered eight times (13 extra-base hits) vs Chris Tillman
There’s not always a lot of deep BvP information available, but today’s an exception. Several batters have homered at least three times against the pitcher they are facing tonight with Evan Longoria leading the way with eight (68 PAs) against Chris Tilllman with 13 extra-base hits in all. On 19 Statcast recorded BBEs, he has a 90.9 mph aEV, which is not extremely high, but favorable over a larger sample. Consider that no pitcher with more than 52 BBEs have averaged higher this year. Andrew McCutchen has homered three times with nine extra-base hits against Johnny Cueto, but with just three recorded BBEs (98.4 mph). Kendrys Morales has three HRs (six extra-base hits) in 22 PAs against Doug Fister (96.6 mph aEV, six BBEs). Among matchups with at least 10 Statcast recorded BBEs, two batters have exceeded a 91 mph aEV. Steven Souza Jr. (95.4 mph aEV, 12 BBEs, 1 HR, 25 PAs) also against Chris Tillman and D.J. LeMahieu (93.8 mph aEV, 14 BBEs, 2 doubles, 21 PAs) against Robbie Ray. A pair of shortstops also have two HRs against the pitcher they are facing tonight in 9 PAs each and an aEV above 100 mph: Trevor Story (five BBEs) against Robbie Ray and Carlos Correa (seven BBEs) vs Michael Pineda.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Andrew McCutchen, Kendrys Morales, Steven Souza, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa John Jaso leads the majors with a 345 wRC+ (50 Hard%, two HRs) over the last week
John Jaso (345 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) has the top wRC+ in the majors over the last week (10 PA min.). He’s in a somewhat difficult spot at home against Johnny Cueto tonight, who is allowing a hard contact rate above 35% to LHBs this year and 8.2% Barrels/BBE overall. The biggest surprise about Jaso this year is a power spike (.222 ISO vs RHP). Caleb Joseph (337 wRC+, 85.7 Hard%, 1 HR) is the only other batter with a wRC+ above 300, but that’s only in 11 PAs and Jacob Faria is probably not the guy you want to play a light hitting, bottom of the order catcher against, although weather conditions in Baltimore are expected to be ripe for power. Danny Valencia (282 wRC+, 40 Hard%, one HR) faces rookie Parker Bridwell (RHBs .352 wOBA, 45 Hard%), who has an 89.7 mph aEV so far. Khris Davis (264 wRC+, 57.1 Hard%, three HRs) hits RHP well (141 wRC+, .298 ISO this year), but Mike Foltynewicz has held RHBs to a .310 wOBA and 25.4 Hard% since last season. George Springer (260 wRC+, 31.6 Hard%, three HRs) might be the top play on this list. Michael Pineda has little platoon split (RHBs .324 wOBA since last season) and is coming off a start in which he allowed three runs. An interesting thing you’ll find is that if you sort on Fangraphs by hard hit rate over the last 7 days (10 PA min. again), eight of the 12 batters at 60% or above are catchers.
Other tagged players: Caleb Joseph, Danny Valencia, Khris Davis, George Springer Ten of 30 teams tonight currently have an implied run line above 4.8
One-third of the 30 offenses on a full Friday night slate have an implied run line above 4.8 tonight. The Tampa Bay Rays are currently a full quarter of a run higher than any other team facing Chris Tillman (13.8 K%, 8.39 ERA, 5.66 SIERA, 89.6 mph aEV, 40.5% 95 mph EV). Evan Longoria has homered eight times against Tillman in his career, who has allowed a .351 wOBA to LHBs since last season. It’s expected to be 90 degrees at first pitch in Baltimore with the wind blowing out. The Rays will and should be a popular stack tonight. It’s not the only great spot tonight though and we can even look at the potential of some offenses below 4.8 implied runs. The Miami Marlins might be one such offense with a significant park upgrade in Milwaukee. Matt Garza has a 14.6 K% and 5.31 ERA/4.93 SIERA over the last month. LHBs have a .346 wOBA, 36.3 Hard% against Garza since last year, which automatically includes Justin Bour (122 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP since 2016) and Christian Yelich (130 wRC+, .181 ISO vs RHP since 2016), though the power has been lacking from the latter this year (.109 ISO vs RHP). He still has a 94.5 mph aEV, but a 58.3 GB% is killing him. Also mentioned in our excellent Trendspotting article today, Giancarlo Stanton has a 21% Increase in his rolling 10 day hard % since June 18. He has a 201 wRC+ with three HRs over the last week, while Marcell Ozuna has been lighting up RHP too this season (147 wRC+, .286 ISO), though he has a -53 wRC+ over the last week.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Trendspotting Other tagged players: Evan Longoria, Justin Bour, Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna Start of Thursday's NYY-CWS game will be delayed due to rain
The beginning of today’s game between the New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox will start in a rain delay. There is currently no estimated start time for the contest to get underway but the delay has the potential to be a lengthy one. Kevin Roth had the risk of this game graded as ORANGE/YELLOW due to the chance of a mid-game delay, meaning there’s potential for more rain to move in behind this initial delay. The safe route is to remove exposure to players in this contest given the chance of a postponement but if willing to take on some extra risk, hitters could pay off big time at a reduced ownership if the game plays through upon completion of the rain delay.
As reported by: Daryl Van Schouwen
Welington Castillo scratched, Caleb Joseph replaces and will bat seventh
Castillo has officially been scratched from the Baltimore Orioles lineup for tonight’s game against the Tampa Bay Rays due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Caleb Joseph, who will take over the catching duties and bat seventh. Since Joseph is slotting directly into Castillo’s spot in the lineup, the remainder of the Orioles previously confirmed batting order remains unchanged.
As reported by: Eduardon A Encina Hunter Renfroe (165 wRC+, .304 ISO vs LHP) a potential piece to help pay up for Kershaw
Players are looking for affordable bats to help pay up for pitching and Russell Martin has been mentioned a few times as a value play tonight near the top of the order for an offense with one the highest projected run lines tonight. Chase Utley provides another low cost path if he’s atop the Dodger lineup tonight (not yet confirmed). With a lack of strong options at SS, that’s a position players might consider punting entirely, though in order to afford Kershaw, players are still likely to need at least one really cheap outfielder. That’s an ideal spot for Hunter Renfroe tonight. He’s batting clean up against Jaime Garcia has no wOBA split this year (.310 for either side), but has allowed eight of his 10 HRs to RHBs, against whom he has just a 5.3 K-BB%. Renfroe has career 165 wRC+ and .304 ISO vs LHP. He costs less than $3K on either site. Low cost Yankee bats are an excellent option as well if you have confidence in the weather in Chicago.
Other tagged players: Clayton Kershaw, Russell Martin, Chase Utley Affordable Toronto bats expected to be most popular tonight
Toronto Blue Jays are expected to be the most popular bats on the slate, but not necessarily who players might think. In an attempt to pay up for expensive pitching, players are likely to gravitate towards bargain plays like Russell Martin ($2.8K) on FanDuel and Jose Bautista on DraftKings ($4.1K). Manny Machado ($3.9K) may be another popular pick there as he’s hit J.A. Happ well in his career (98.9 mph aEV). Wil Myers grades one of the strongest Contrarian Scores on either site against Jaime Garcia. Clayton Kershaw, the reason players are looking for bargains, is easily expected to be the most popular play, well ahead of Chris Archer. Dinelson Lamet is currently projected outside the top five arms in ownership. His 24.6 K-BB% through six starts is just 0.3 points below Kershaw’s mark, which is third best in the league. He faces the Braves at Petco tonight. Premium subscribers can find potential ownership rates for all players on our Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Clayton Kershaw, Jose Bautista, Wil Myers, Chris Archer, Manny Machado, Dinelson Lamet Mid-game risk in Yankees @ White Sox tonight.
Aside from the small chance of a short delay in Milwaukee Cincinnati, the Yankees White Sox carries the only real risk on the board and that could be in the form of a mid-game delay. Players shouldn’t have trouble avoiding pitchers from the game, but the problem is if it results in anything worse. A PPD before the game is official would be a big blow to players backing Yankee bats against James Shields. The good news is that this is the last game of a series outside the division, so officials may be more likely to wait it out and get this one in. Read the full report on the Weather page and be sure to follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates on this game.
Despite recent rough patch, Chris Archer still has a career-high 13.0% SwStr% this season
Chris Archer is set to take the mound against the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight coming off of a subpar performance against the Baltimore Orioles his last time out, allowing four earned runs in six innings pitched and striking out just four batters. Poor outing aside, Archer has really turned it around after a shaky start to the year, especially in the strikeout department, notching eight or more strikeouts in seven of his last ten starts, flashing the elite upside that we have all come to know and love. The current season advanced statistics for Archer have rebounded nicely following his middling start to the 2017 campaign, evidenced by a 3.48 SIERA, 29.2% strikeout rate, and a 7.6% walk rate, that is essentially in line with his career numbers. One potential trouble spot is the small dip in his groundball rate (42.5% GB%) from a career 46.2% rate that is correlated with a career-high 40.4% hard hit rate, though a 16-start sample size is still arguably too small to place too much stock in the hard contact issues but are still concerning. Given the matchup with a Pirates squad that is merely a below-average offense against right-handed pitching overall, it’s easy to see why Archer still possesses one of the highest ceilings among starting pitchers on Thursday’s slate, despite Pittsburgh owning the second-best strikeout rate (18.6% K%) against righties. If weighting splits, another small drawback with this spot is that Archer has always been a more dominant pitcher at home throughout his career, which has held true once again, with a 33.3% strikeout rate at Tropicana Field opposed to a 24.1% strikeout rate on the road.
As reported by: FanGraphs LHBs are still hitting Jimmy Nelson hard, just not nearly as often since May (32.5 K-BB%)
Jimmy Nelson has a career .343 wOBA against LHBs with a 9.1 K-BB% and 35.8 Hard%. He started the year much the same with LHBs having a .378 wOBA, 7.3 K-BB% and 38.8 Hard% in April. But then something clicked. Since the beginning of May, LHBs are still hitting him hard (34.3%), but they’re not hitting him nearly as often (32.5 K-BB%, .252 wOBA). That has essentially been the difference in his break out. RHBs have a .337 wOBA and 12.3 K-BB% over that time despite a 61.1 GB% and -4.0 Hard-Soft%. Using Brooks Baseball, we don’t see much of a change in approach. He’s dropped down on his four-seam usage by around 10% to LHBs and increased his sinker and curveball more, but it’s in the pitches themselves. The Whiff% for all of his pitches has increased drastically (except for the changeup). His four-seam, slider, and curve all have a 15+ Whiff% against LHBs since the start of May, while the sinker and curve both induce grounders on more than 50% of batted balls. Velocity readings show that he’s throwing his slider a mph harder and his curve a mph slower too since the beginning of May. A guy like Joey Votto with a low strikeout rate (10.1% vs RHP this year) can still be used against him. PlateIQ tells us that Nelson likes to go middle out and down against LHBs and Votto hits those locations very well. The rest of the Cincinnati lineup is littered with RHBs below Votto, perhaps for that reason tonight, but they’re just very likely to pound the ball into the ground. Nelson doesn’t appear to be a drastically different pitcher since May, but he seems to be getting drastically different results.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Joey Votto Three Blue Jays among top 10 projected hitters via RotoGrinders Player Projections
Aaron Judge (169 wRC+, .331 ISO vs RHP career) is the top projected batter tonight against James Shields (RHBs .374 wOBA since last season) via the RotoGrinders Player Projections. Cody Bellinger (149 wRC+, .386 ISO vs RHP) follows close behind againt JC Ramirez (LHBs .343 wOBA since last season). An argument can be made that the two rookies have been the top hitters in baseball this year. Though none appear in the top five, the Blue Jays have a trio of players in the top 10 projected bats tonight, more than any other team. Jose Bautista (125 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP since 2016), Justin Smoak (117 wRC+, .241 ISO) and Josh Donaldson (149 wRC+, .266 ISO) are expected to take care of Ubaldo Jimenez (RHBs .314 wOBA since last season). The projections see a lot of minimally priced bats as top values on FanDuel tonight, which can be useful if paying up for pitching, but Mookie Betts (3.61 Pt/$/K) is the top projected value for any batter projected for more than 8.5 points. Hunter Renfroe (2.43 Pt/$/K) and Jose Bautista (2.37 Pt/$/K) are potential top values on DraftKings. Renfroe has a career 165 wRC+ and .304 ISO vs LHP with a 46.3 FB%.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Mookie Betts, Hunter Renfroe Dinelson Lamet tops the Daily K Predictor tonight (7.43), Kershaw tops Player Projections
The RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor has Dinelson Lamet at the top of the heap tonight (7.43), just ahead of Chris Archer (7.35), while Clayton Kershaw (6.99) comes in third. Small sample size warnings apply, but he does have a 32.3 K% and 14.0 SwStr% through six major league starts and has walked more than one just once in his last five starts. Kershaw, who has struck out 35.2% of batters (13.8 SwStr%) over the last month is the top overall projected pitcher according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections. Chris Archer once again finds himself in the middle with a bit of a gap from Kershaw to him and then from him to Lamet. Archer and Kershaw both have a 29.2 K% this year. Though Kershaw has already allowed a career high 17 HRs, eight more than Archer, Kershaw has an aEV nearly four mph slower (85.7 – 89.4) and has allowed 10% less contact at 95 mph or above (29.5% – 39.3%). Sufficient reason for Kershaw to cost $2K more on either site tonight, though both are top arms on the slate in solid spots (Kershaw visiting the Angels, Archer in Pittsburgh). Along with Lamet, who has allowed a lot of hard contact to go with the strikeouts (18.4% Barrels/BBE), J.A. Happ is a more affordable pitcher to consider as well. His 22.3 K-BB% would be a top 10 mark if qualified, while a 10.6 SwStr% is a career high by a full point as well. Batters are chasing pitchers out of the strike zone 36.8% of the time. He hosts a Baltimore offense that despite being predominantly right-handed, continues to struggle with LHP (18.7 K-BB%).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Dinelson Lamet, Chris Archer, J.A. Happ Manny Machado has two HRs with a 98.9 mph aEV against J.A. Happ
Several players have homered twice against the pitcher they are facing tonight, but only Manny Machado (98.9 mph, 11 BBEs) and Kendrys Morales (99 mph aEV, four BBEs) exceed a 92 mph aEV. Machado has faced J.A. Happ 40 times, adding a double and triple to his two homers. Morales has faced Ubaldo Jimenez 22 times with two additional doubles. Josh Donaldson also has a 93.9 mph aEV against Jimenez, but with just three extra-base hits and a single homer in 33 PAs. Joey Votto has a 93.9 mph aEV on 13 BBEs against Jimmy Nelson, but without an extra-base hit in 26 PAs. Relaxing requirements to nine BBEs, Jose Reyes has a 95.2 mph aEV against Jose Urena with a double and a triple in 10 PAs.
Other tagged players: J.A. Happ, Kendrys Morales, Josh Donaldson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jimmy Nelson, Joey Votto, Jose Reyes, Jose Urena