DFS Alerts
Despite a difficult matchup, Luis Severino still ranks first among SP on the early slate with a 12.0% SwStr%
Luis Severino continues to chug along in what looks to be a breakout season for this once highly-touted prospect, as he is coming off of a masterful performance against the Chicago White Sox his last time out, limiting them to just one earned run and punching out 12 in seven innings of work. Today, he’ll take the mound against an imposing Houston Astros lineup on the road. While the matchup with a team that owns the highest wOBA and highest ISO in the Majors against right-handed pitching is something we don’t normally go out of the way to target, this is a spot where we can roster one of the most talented in the league at virtually no ownership and at a fair price tag, making Severino an ideal contrarian option for large field tournaments. The primary reason to feel good about Severino this afternoon is the elite skills he brings to the mound, a 28.2% strikeout rate and 56.0% groundball rate to along with below-average hard hits (28.5%) is normally a winning combination for a starting pitcher, no matter the matchup. Essentially this means, on any other day, in any other matchup, Severino would be one of, if not, the top option on the entire slate. So while Jeff Samardzija is the clear optimal play over Severino in cash games for the price and matchup with a team that struggles with power and on-base ability against righties, consider Severino as a low owned tournament pivot with nearly identical upside and peripherals as Samardzija if removing matchup difficulty from the equation.
As reported by: FanGraphs
David Freese scratched Sunday; Jose Osuna replaces and will bat second
Freese has officially been scratched from the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup for today’s game against the San Francisco Giants due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jose Osuna, who will take over the third base duties and bat second. This lineup change will slide John Jaso and Josh each down one spot in the order to third and fourth respectively. However, the remainder of the Pirates previously confirmed lineup will remain unchanged.
As reported by: Adam Berry Other tagged players: Jose Osuna No changes to Saturday's MLB weather forecast, night games remain worry-free
It’s a great night for baseball across the Majors, as zero games on this 7-game main slate have any threat of rain or delays of any kind. The only weather situation of note is a slight wind blowing out to left in Detroit for the second game of a doubleheader between the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers, but the winds won’t be sustained or strong enough to really play a factor in hitting conditions. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Start of Saturday's TB-BAL game will be delayed due to rain
The beginning of today’s game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles will start in a rain delay. There is currently no estimated start time for the contest to get underway but the delay has the potential to be a lengthy one. Kevin Roth had the risk of this game graded as YELLOW/ORANGE due to the chance of a pregame delay, meaning it’s highly likely that this game will play in its entirety once finally getting underway.
As reported by: Roch Kubatko Justin Upton scratched Saturday; J.D. Martinez replaces and will bat third
Upton has officially been scratched from the Detroit Tigers lineup for today’s game against the Cleveland Indians due to soreness in his right side. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by J.D. Martinez, who will take over the right field duties and bat third. Since Martinez is slotting directly into Upton’s spot in the lineup, the remainder of the Tigers previously confirmed batting order will remain unchanged.
As reported by: Tigers PR Other tagged players: JD Martinez Several games with rain delay potential in Saturday's MLB early slate forecast
It looks to be a relatively tumultuous afternoon across the Majors weather-wise, as there a more than a few games with rain delay potential on Saturday’s early slate. The game with the highest chance of a postponement comes to us in New York for the matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets where Kevin Roth currently has the game’s risk classified as ORANGE/YELLOW, This means that a rain delay is likely and a postponement cannot be entirely ruled out. It is certainly a game that will need to be monitored throughout the afternoon if looking to deploy players from this contest in your daily fantasy lineups today. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Jose Berrios has an elite 17.1% HH% and 30.7% K% versus RHB
As a former highly-touted prospect coming up through the Minnesota Twins minor league system, Jose Berrios seems to have figured it out at the Major League level and appears to have officially “arrived” as a front-end of the rotation starting pitcher, allowing two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts. Since being called up from AAA in mid-May, he has a more than respectable 60:17 K: BB ratio and has seen his walk rate drop to 7.1% from the astronomical 12.5% walk rate he allowed in 14 starts last season. Berrios has been incredible at limiting hard contact thus far, coming into tonight’s start with a 24.5% hard hit rate on the year, and though that mark is likely somewhat fluky due to sample size, his hard hit rate would still be below league average even if it were to increase a few percentage points over time. Clearly, Berrios is a great young pitcher with high strikeout potential who has seemingly found his control at the big league level. He’ll receive the added benefit of facing off with a subpar Kansas City Royals offense this afternoon that ranks 27th in wRC+, 26th in wOBA, and 21st in ISO versus right-handed pitching, in addition to striking out at a 20.9% clip and drawing the second fewest number of walks in the Majors (6.4% BB%). As evidenced, Berrios looks to have a clear advantage in terms of matchup over the other top-end starting pitchers, making him a great option in cash games and tournaments alike across the industry, but especially on FanDuel where his salary is less inflated, in order to be able to pay up for higher upside bats than Chris Sale’s salary would dictate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Cleveland @ Detroit has been postponed Friday
Cleveland @ Detroit has been postponed. Please remove all players from that game from your lineups.
As reported by: Jason Beck
Start of Friday's Cleveland @ Detroit game will be delayed Friday
Cleveland @ Detroit will be delayed. According to Kevin’s evening forecast, this was the riskiest game on the board (ORANGE/RED).
As reported by: Nick Camino Cleveland @ Detroit one of several games with moderate concern Friday night
Cleveland Detroit looks like the riskiest of a group of games that could have some weather difficulties tonight. While losing pitchers from this game is not a big deal, it's the bats that will hurt us as there seems to be a decent amount of rain in the area that Kevin doesn't see clearing out until around 10 pm. With a hint of RED in his rating, this game appears to be at risk right now. Chicago (NL) Cincinnati and Philadelphia New York (NL) should get started okay, but timing is key here as rain could impact these games anywhere from the mid to late innings. The pitcher to be most concerned about may be Jacob deGrom, though if he works quickly, he may get in the necessary innings before the bad weather hits. Delays are also possible in Pittsburgh (vs San Francisco) and Chicago (AL) (vs Texas). Read Kevin's full report on the Weather page and be sure to follow him on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for important updates on this busy night.
Jacob deGrom and Alex Wood expected to be highest owned pitchers Friday night
Tampa Bay still has a sizeable lead with the top implied run line tonight (5.79), but according to early ownership projections, hitter ownership will be well spread out without a single bat currently expected to be in more than 20% of lineups on a full slate, though there are several Rays in the 15% range, more than any other team. Top Contrarian Rating on either site goes to Cameron Maybin facing a lefty (Ariel Miranda) with minimal expected ownership (1%). Jacob deGrom and Alex Wood are expected to be more popular than Lance McCullers tonight, but maybe that shouldn’t be against a Yankee lineup missing several key bats. Jacob Faria is also currently expected to be in fewer than 15% of lineups on either site. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and are available for all players to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Alex Wood, Cameron Maybin, Lance McCullers, Jacob Faria Lucas Duda scratched Friday; T.J. Rivera replaces at first base
Duda has officially been scratched from the New York Mets lineup for tonight’s game against the Philadelphia Phillies due to a lingering illness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by T.J. Rivera, who will take over the first base duties and bat sixth. This lineup change will bump Wilmer Flores up one spot in the order to fifth. However, the remainder of the Mets previously confirmed lineup will remain unchanged.
As reported by: Anthony DiComo Other tagged players: T.J. Rivera Cleveland has a 112 sOPS+ against RHP (fifth best in baseball)
Anibal Sanchez hasn’t looked terrible in two starts, allowing three ERs (four total) in 11 innings over two starts with a 20 K% and 50 GB% (-6.4 Hard-Soft%). He’s still a fairly extreme fly ball pitcher (38.7 GB% last two calendar years) and the Indians have a 112 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers. In particular, Jose Ramirez (175 sOPS+, 10 HRs), Bradley Zimmer (172), Lonnie Chisenhall (150), and Edwin Encarnacion (149, 12 HRs) have all smashed fly ball pitchers. Since the start of last season, RHBs have actually hit Sanchez better (.385 wOBA, 36.8 Hard%), but LHBs have a .340 wOBA against him too (29.1 Hard%).
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Bradley Zimmer, Lonnie Chisenhall, Edwin Encarnacion, Anibal Sanchez Four RH Dodger batters have a 120+ sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers
Strengthening Lance McCullers’ case against the New York Yankees, aside from the top ground ball rate and a top seven K-BB% among qualified pitchers, the Yankees have just an 82 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers (fourth worst in baseball). Aaron Judge (198 sOPS+) is the only healthy batter with more than 25 PAs that exceeds a 105 sOPS+ against ground ball hitters and then Chris Carter (105) is the only other above average bat. On the other end of the spectrum, the Nationals (122 sOPS+) and Dodgers (118 sOPS+) are top four offenses against ground ball pitchers. Washington is a tough draw for Mike Leake, even without Trea Turner, but Austin Barnes (257 sOPS+), Justin Turner (196), Kike Hernandez (132) and Franklin Gutierrez (121) are all RH Dodger bats who can make life tough on Clayton Richard tonight. PlateIQ tells us that Clayton Richard likes to work low and away to RHBs, while Brooks Baseball tells us he favors the curve and change as secondary pitches against batters from that side. Several RH Dodger bats appear to handle the low and away pitch well, but while Kike Hernandez and Austin Barnes have had some success against the curveball, no Dodger RHBs have had great success with the change over the last two years.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Austin Barnes, Franklin Gutierrez, Enrique Hernandez, Lance McCullers, Aaron Judge, Chris Carter, Mike Leake, Clayton Richard Ariel Miranda will start Friday, not Sam Gaviglio, as Mariners shuffle rotation
The Seattle Mariners have decided to utilize their off day yesterday as a chance to change up the order of their starting rotation. This change will bump Ariel Miranda up a day and move Sam Gaviglio’s next scheduled start to Saturday, who was originally projected to start Friday evening against the Los Angeles Angels. Be sure to check out the Starting Lineups page and Projections page for the latest updates to the Angels hitters’ projections.
As reported by: Bob Dutton Other tagged players: Sam Gaviglio