DFS Alerts
The best hitter in the league this year (Aaron Judge) is also the hottest bat on the night slate
The highest wRC+ over the last week for any batter on the night slate (10 PA min.) belongs to probably the best player in baseball this year, Aaron Judge. His 251 wRC+ over the last week isn’t that much of an improvement on his season number, while his 37.5 Hard% (three HRs) is actually a decline. He’s facing a pitcher who allows a lot of hard contact (James Shields 40.5% 95+ mph EV) with the weather being the greatest concern tonight. Travis Shaw (250 wRC+, 43.8 Hard%, four HRs) is also a top play tonight against Homer Bailey (eight runs in 1.2 innings in his only start). Curtis Granderson (248 wRC+, 50 Hard%, four HRs) faces Jose Urena (9.0% Barrels/BBE). Scooter Gennett (246 wRC+, 57.1 Hard%, three HRs) is trying to prove that that four homer game wasn’t so much a fluke. He faces a retooled Jimmy Nelson, who has a 32.5 K-BB% vs LHBs since the end of May.
Other tagged players: Travis Shaw, Curtis Granderson, Scooter Gennett, Jimmy Nelson
Matt Davidson tops our home run predictor Thursday (8.02%)
Davidson has been struggling over the past five games, striking out 13 times in 20 at bats without picking up a single hit. As a result his price has tumbled from $4,600 to $3,400 in a little over a week on DraftKings. He’s in a good spot to turn that slump around today, which makes him an intriguing option at a discounted price. Impressively, Davidson has posted a 52.8% FB% and a 41.1% Hard% this season over 220 at bats. Against RHP, his fly ball rate has remained consistent (52.5%) but his hard contact has been even better (47.5%). Although opposing starting pitcher Luis Cessa hasn’t given up a ton of hard contact to RHB since 2016 (29.3%) righties have tagged him for a .222 ISO and a 19.6% HR/FB rate on a 37.6% FB% – not surprisingly, Davidson has a high HR/FB rate himself (25.8%). Cessa has only made two starts and three appearances in 2017 (12.1 IP) and he’s allowed exactly one dinger each time he took the hill, which has left him with a 2.19 HR/9. That’s not far off from his 2016 performance – 17 appearances and 70.1 IP – when he tallied a 2.05 HR/9 rate. While in the minors these numbers were much lower; for example, across 11 appearances, 10 starts, and 65.0 IP in AAA this season, he’s allowed 0.97 HR/9. Although we have a small sample size, it seems like Cessa is still struggling to adjust to the major league level and Davidson is poised to take advantage of that tonight. This game could run into some weather issues – although if they get the game in, it’ll be warm and humid with 12 mph wind blowing out to left – and the White Sox haven’t announced an official lineup yet. Be sure to check up on those prior to lock and also take a look at projected ownership as Davidson could sneak by tonight, which would make him an appealing GPP target.
Milwauke Brewer bats could provide a path to Kershaw on FanDuel
The Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees all have implied run lines between 5.6 and 5.9 with an additional four teams between 4.8 and 5.1 before another drop off to 4.5 implied runs on an eight game nights slate. Players paying up for Clayton Kershaw or Chris Archer may want to consider Milwaukee Brewer bats (4.9 implied run line), affordably priced on FanDuel against Homer Bailey. Only Travis Shaw (250 wRC+) and Keon Broxton (209 wRC+) have been hitting well over the last week, but Eric Sogard (163 wRC+, .156 ISO vs RHP) and Eric Thames (137 wRC+, .296 ISO) have hit RHP well this year and cost right around $3K. Players willing to punt the SS position could also consider Orlando Arcia (182 wRC+, 37.5 Hard% last seven days) for $2.2K. Bailey was absolutely lit up for eight runs in less than two innings in his first start of the year. DraftKings players may have a more difficult time finding affordable bats, but can supplement high cost pitching with a cheaper SP2, absorbing some risk for potential upside with Dinelson Lamet, Jaime Garcia, JC Ramirez or Luis Cessa.
Other tagged players: Eric Sogard, Travis Shaw, Keon Broxton, Orlando Arcia, Homer Bailey, Clayton Kershaw, Dinelson Lamet, Jaime Garcia, J.C. Ramirez Dinelson Lamet leads main slate with a 14.0% SwStr% this season
The rookie’s 32.3% strikeout rate is also the highest on the board tonight while his 3.35 SIERA is third. On the flip side, his 6.6 ERA is the second-worst among pitchers with more than one start this season and he’s allowing a ridiculously high 55.3% FB% and 40.8% Hard%. He’s only pitched 30.0 innings in the bigs – and faced 130 batters – but he’s been volatile so far. He’s racked up as many as 12 strikeouts in a single outing and he gave up three homers and seven earned runs in another. That makes him an interesting tournament play, especially in this spot against the Braves, who have a projected team ISO of .148 and are expected to feature four batters with ISOs of .103 or lower. They also have a friendly 20.0% K% against RHP this year. Vegas seems to think highly of his prospects as they’ve given Atlanta the third-lowest implied total tonight (3.95). He appears to be a great value on DraftKings where he costs $7.0k – $1.1k cheaper than FanDuel – and checks in as our top points-per-dollar option in our projections model. He may be better suited for tournaments due to the wide range of potential outcomes, but it does seem to be the time to target him against a weak offense as his ceiling will be high. Be sure to check out the Braves’ official lineup when it’s released and Lamet’s projected ownership later today.
Weather risk lowered for early slate games
The Rangers-Indians and Royals-Tigers games have both been reduced to GREEN/YELLOW this afternoon as it looks like they’ll mostly avoid precipitation. Both matchups will still feature plenty of wind. In Cleveland, where several big lefty bats will have a favorable matchup, we’re expecting sustained winds of 20 mph blowing out to right with gusts up to 30. Andrew Cashner has posted a 40.2% FB% against LHB this year and Cleveland has four LHB with fly ball rates between 41.9-46.7%, all of whom have hard contact rates between 28.6-37.2%. On top of that, Cashner has an overall contact rate of 86.7%. There’s definitely some big homer upside here; Cleveland looks like a strong team to stack today.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Cleveland leads early slate in projected runs (6.04)
The Tribe have a very nice spot against Andrew Cashner this afternoon, who’s posted a 5.76 SIERA this season along with a 5.7% SwStr% and 11.2% K%. He has some noticeable handedness splits – 40.2% FB%, 6.24 xFIP, 8.6% K%, 31.3% Hard% against LHB this year; 21.4% FB%, 4.65 xFIP, 13.5%, 28.8% Hard% against RHB – which favors Cleveland’s lineup as they’ll have six batters attacking from the left side of the plate. That group includes Jose Ramirez (41.9% FB%, 37.2% Hard%, .271 ISO, .417 wOBA vs RHP this season), Francisco Lindor (45.1% FB%, 28.6% Hard%, .218 ISO, .313 wOBA), Jason Kipnis (44.0% FB%, 32.7% Hard%, .173 ISO, .311 wOBA), Michael Brantley (29.5% FB%, 42.9% Hard%, .163 ISO, .360 wOBA), Carlos Santana (46.7% FB%, 31.6% Hard%, .184 ISO, .330 wOBA), and Bradley Zimmer (29.6% FB%, 35.1% Hard%, .229 ISO, .388 WOBA). Edwin Encarnacion (41.7% FB%, 37.9% Hard%, .246 ISO, .357 wOBA) also has some excellent splits against RHP. According to PlateIQ, the Indian’s lineup has a combined strikeout rate of 22.2%, but that isn’t a huge concern against Cashner. Overall, the Rangers’ starter has allowed a slate-high 86.7% contact rate and his propensity to give up a good amount of fly balls to lefties is dangerous against this group featuring four LHB with fly ball rates between 41.9-46.7%. The team is clearly in a great matchup to stack, but they’ll surely come with high ownership.
Thursday's MLB forecast shows a couple of trouble spots on early slate
We’re expecting some scattered showers in Detroit this afternoon that could potentially impact the Royals-Tigers game. It’s currently considered YELLOW/ORANGE and it’ll be important to monitor the situation as we near lock and gain a better sense of coverage. It will be windy there either way with gusts up to 35 mph across the field towards the third base line. We’re anticipating similar conditions in Cleveland with heavy winds blowing out to right field. Due to rain heading into the area later in the afternoon, we’re considering this game YELLOW. There are only two games of note on the main slate as of this morning – both the Twins-Red Sox (YELLOW) and Yankees-White Sox (ORANGE/YELLOW) games may be affected by storms. Be sure to check back for our afternoon forecast to get an update on these situations.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Toronto has begun to separate from other top offenses, 5.76 implied runs currently
Toronto is now the top projected offense tonight on our Vegas Odds page, which has them at 5.76 runs. They were just below Houston and Boston earlier this afternoon. The Red Sox have dropped off just over one-tenth of a run since early afternoon, while the Astros now sit third at 5.34 implied runs. They were at 5.74 just a few hours ago. The Yankees are another big dropper after a lineup was released without several regulars. They’ve dropped from 4.81 runs to 4.65.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Stephen Strasburg projected to be the over-whelming favorite tonight
Mookie Betts is the only batter currently projected to be in more than than 20% of lineups on FanDuel tonight, as he costs less than $4K for the offense with the second highest implied run line tonight. On DraftKings, Josh Donaldson and Miguel Cabrera share that honor, both of their teams with top four implied run lines tonight as well. The top contrarian score there goes to Adrian Beltre (1% projection). He has a 125 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP since last season and faces an erratic righty in Trevor Bauer. Wil Myers captures the top contrarian score on DraftKings, facing the returning Bartolo Colon. On the pitching side, Stephen Strasburg is currently projected to be in two to three times more lineups than any other pitcher depending on the site. Of course, this makes almost everyone else a contrarian play, especially on FanDuel, where nobody is expected to be in much more than 10% of lineups.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Josh Donaldson, Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Beltre, Wil Myers Yankees @ White Sox carries some risk in Kevin's evening forecast
Kevin currently has the Yankees White Sox game graded YELLOW/ORANGE, but his forecast projects a window between a possible late start and potential late game weather activity in which to get this game in. That's great news for Masahiro Tanaka backers, but players will definitely need to be cautious and stay up to date with Kevin on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for further updates. There could be some light rain around Detroit (vs Kansas City) as well, but it’s not expected to impact the game. Players can read the full forecast on the Weather page.
Chase Anderson has improved against RHBs this month by increasing his cutter usage
After his start on May 21st, Chase Anderson had a 4.25 ERA with a 36.4 Hard% and estimators above four as well with an xFIP nearly reaching five. In six starts since then he has a 23.8 K-BB%, 1.33 ERA, 2.72 FIP and 3.56 xFIP. A significant reverse platoon pitcher (RHBs .363 wOBA, 37.4 Hard% since last year). Over those last six starts though, RHBs have just a .221 wOBA as he’s held his K-BB% against batters from either side, increasing his GB rate to 47.7% vs same handed batters, though the hard hit rate still remains high (34.1%). Brooks Baseball seems to indicate that he’s cut down on his change-up and four-seam usage against RHBs in June, in favor of cutters, which has a 20.41 SwStr% and 71.43 GB% against them this month. That’s one heck of a pitch. If we look at the past two seasons on PlateIQ though, the cutter is a pitch that RHBs Adam Duvall (107 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP this year) and Eugenio Suarez (91 wRC+, .158 ISO vs RHP) have both handled well, at least in terms of having a higher than league average Hit% against the pitch. In a home park that greatly favors power hitters, both are still a threat to leave the yard and perhaps still in play against Anderson tonight, whose cost now exceeds $9K.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez Mookie Betts is top overall projected bat tonight, while Dustin Pedroia rates as a top value
Arizona is the only offense with two batters in the top five overall (top six on DraftKings) among the RotoGrinders Players Projections. Both Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb stand a good chance of being among top scorers at home tonight against Adam Wainwright, who has allowed a .350+ wOBA to batters from both sides this year. Jose Bautista and Justin Smoak (180 wRC+, .233 ISO vs LHP this year) both project strongly against Wade Miley, who has sacrificed strikeouts for ground balls lately. RHBs have a .358 wOBA against him since last season, but Bautista has just a 35 wRC+ and .063 ISO against LHP this year. Mookie Betts (111 wRC+, .254 ISO vs LHP since 2016) is the top overall projected bat against Adalberto Mejia (RHBs .349 wOBA, 37.1 Hard%). On FanDuel, a minimum priced Max Moroff in the leadoff spot for Pittsburgh against Blake Snell projects at the top potential value (3.88 Pt/$/K), followed by a trio of Boston bats below $3K (Chris Young, Dustin Pedroia, Sam Travis). Pedroia and Travis also share top value honors on DraftKings at just below 2.5 Pt/$/K, followed closely by Jose Bautista (2.47 Pt/$/K).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Dustin Pedroia, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, Jose Bautista, Justin Smoak, Sam Travis, Chris Young, Maxwell Moroff Yu Darvish (7.14) tops the Daily K Predictor today, Stephen Strasburg tops Player Projections
Yu Darvish is the only pitcher projected above seven Ks (7.14) from the Daily K Predictor today. He’s followed fairly closely by Masahiro Tanaka (6.95), Stephen Strasburg (6.77) and even Rick Porcello (6.68) before dropping off. RotoGrinders Player Projections like Strasburg then Tanaka, followed by Chase Anderson and Marcus Stroman before Yu Darvish grouped closely together. Darvish struck out 10 Yankees without a walk in his last start and has a 30.6 K% for the last month, widening his K-BB to 18% on the season. He’s not in the greatest spot in Cleveland tonight, but perhaps he’s finally getting it going after a sub-standard start to the season. Strasburg has struck out just 10 of his last 50 batters and allowed at least five runs in two of his last three starts. You take the good with the bad with him, but his 20.7 K-BB% is a top 10 mark among qualifiers. Masahiro Tanaka did not allow a run in his last start, but four HRs in his previous two, so that issue may not be solved, but 27 strikeouts (76 batters) over his last three starts, players should be more willing to accept the risk at a cost below $9K, especially against the White Sox (83 wRC+ vs RHP). Marcus Stroman has just a league average strikeout rate with a 60.3 GB%. He does have a SwStr rate above 13% in three straight starts though and face a Baltimore offense with a 15.8 K-BB% vs RHP and 83 sOPS+ vs ground ball pitchers. Chase Anderson is up to a 23.3 K% (10.6 SwStr%) on the season, but his 2.92 ERA is suppressed by a 7.9 HR/FB (4.17 SIERA), even with three HRs allowed over his last two starts. He has been exceptional with contact management this season according to Statcast, (84.2 mph aEV, 4.1% Barrels/BBE, 26.1% 95+ mph EV) but now costs more than $9K. Zack Godley is another pitcher to watch. He has struck out 16 of his last 50 batters and has a SwStr rate above 11% in eight of nine starts overall with a 59.9 GB%. He gets a bit of a penalty for the park in Arizona against an average St Louis offense (98 wRC+ vs RHP).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Stephen Strasburg, Masahiro Tanaka, Marcus Stroman, Chase Anderson, Zack Godley Brian Dozier, two others, have homered three times against pitcher they are facing tonight
Brian Dozier is one of three batters with three HRs against the pitcher they are facing tonight. In 40 PAs against Rick Porcello, who has been having HR issues recently, Dozier has struck out just four times with just one other extra-base hit. Ten BBEs have been recorded by Statcast with a 90 mph aEV. Edwin Encarnacion has also homered three times against Yu Darvish (26 PAs), but with a more average 87.8 mph aEV on just five recorded BBEs. Evan Longoria has taken Ivan Nova deep three times in 42 PAs, but those were likely all during his Yankee days and Pittsburgh is a different kind of park to RHBs. Three BBEs have been recorded with a 100 mph aEV. Among those with at least 10 Statcast recorded BBEs, Mark Trumbo has the highest aEV (95 mph, 12 BBEs) against Marcus Stroman with a HR and two doubles in 15 PAs. Ian Kinsler has four doubles and a HR in 16 PAs against Ian Kennedy (96.3 mph aEV, seven BBEs). The one interesting thing players may notice is that these are all RHBs against RHPs.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Evan Longoria, Mark Trumbo, Ian Kinsler Michael Taylor (331 wRC+) is one of just three hitters with a wRC+ above 300 over last seven days
Robinson Chirinos doesn’t play every day, but perhaps he should for a while. He was in the lineup last night and homered. He now has a 482 wRC+, 83.3 Hard% and three HRs in 11 PAs over the last week. He faces the erratic Trevor Bauer tonight (RHBs .292 wOBA, 31.1 Hard% since last season) in a run friendly environment in Cleveland at a low cost. Michael Taylor (331 wRC+, 57.1 Hard%, three HRs) and Josh Reddick (326 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) are the only other two batters in the league with a wRC+ above 300 over the last week (10 PA min.). Taylor’s emergence has been a real surprise and he lacks much value out of the eighth spot in the order, but John Lackey has no real platoon split anymore and has been and ERA with estimators well above four. Reddick is sure to be popular as an affordable bat near the top of the order for one of the top projected offenses tonight against Jesse Hahn (LHBs .385 wOBA since last season). Two more bats to consider are Curtis Granderson (277 wRC+, 57.1 Hard%, four HRs), who has been back in the leadoff spot on occasion and has hit LHP sufficiently (97 wRC+, .193 ISO since last season). Jeff Locke has allowed LHBs a .338 wOBA since last season. Joc Pederson (275 wRC+, 46.2 Hard%, three HRs) gets Alex Meyer, who can miss bats, but also walks a ton of batters and has allowed a .353 wOBA (35.2 Hard%) to LHBs since last year.
Other tagged players: Josh Reddick, Robinson Chirinos, Curtis Granderson, Joc Pederson