DFS Alerts
David Holmberg owns a career 5.85 xFIP and 2.2% K-BB% versus RHB
David Holmberg is set to make his sixth start of the year in tonight’s home matchup against the New York Yankees following a brief one inning bullpen appearance just three short days ago. Since 2013, Holmberg has pitched just 93.2 career innings at the Major League level and has not seen great success, evidenced by his 5.52 SIERA, 12.6% strikeout rate, and 10.9% walk rate. He typically hasn’t struggled to that extent with the free passes in the Minors, but the low strikeout rate appears more real than not, as he has never been a strikeout pitcher at baseball’s lower levels. Holmberg has also lacked the ability to control batted balls in any way, making him a low strikeout pitcher with questionable control that is unable to influence groundballs or fly balls one way or another. As a left-handed pitcher, he also draws the unenvious task of facing a Yankees lineup that consists of seven right-handed hitters Monday night. The Yankees bats will surely be popular, but Aaron Judge (48% hard hits, .383 ISO vs LHP) and Gary Sanchez (47% hard hits, .214 ISO vs LHP) are arguably the top plays on this entire slate, making them a tough fade in any format. The other Yankee most likely to take advantage of Holmberg and his 38.5% hard hit rate is Starlin Castro (33% hard hits, .364 OBP vs LHP), while Tyler Austin (195 wRC+, .460 wOBA, .304 ISO in 27 career PAs vs LHP) remains cheap across the industry and will see a bump up to the fifth spot in the order with Aaron Hicks heading to the disabled list and Matt Holliday receiving the night off. Clearly, a Yankees stack seems to be more than viable in large-field tournaments, as Holmberg is bad enough that there is a significant chance the entire lineup can go off in this matchup.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Gary Sanchez, Starlin Castro, Tyler Austin, David Holmberg
Hanley Ramirez scratched on Monday; Chris Young will now enter the lineup and bat 6th
Ramirez has been scratched on Monday and will be replaced by Chris Young, who will slot into the six spot of the Boston order. Bats from both sides of this match-up are best left alone with Chris Sale and Jose Berrios squaring off.
As reported by: Evan Drellich Other tagged players: Chris Young
Daily K Predictor projects Sale for three Ks more than any other pitcher today
Chris Sale (9.64) has more than a three strikeout cushion on any other pitcher on either slate today according to the Daily K Predictor. Jeff Samardzija (6.33) is second and costs $3K to $4.5K less. Sale also projects for the highest point total via the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight, but it’s Jordan Montgomery and Rich Hill who follow. Montgomery has allowed four HRs over his last three starts and faces the top offense against LHP (White Sox 125 wRC+), but his 13.2 SwStr% is second best on the night slate and projects for better than his 22.7 K%. Hill did strike out a season high eight in his last start and could be a bargain if he gets back on track, but still walked three of 23 batters and has failed to go more than five innings in any start despite throwing more than 95 pitches in each of his last four starts. Samardzija may have the top matchup on the board, hosting the Rockies (83 wRC+ on the road, 80 wRC+ vs RHP). Over the last week, Colorado has a team 30 wRC+ with a 27.4 K% and 1.4 Hard-Soft%.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Jeff Samardzija, Jordan Montgomery, Rich Hill
Brian Dozier has homered three times (41 PAs) against Chris Sale
Brian Dozier has a slate leading three HRs against Chris Sale in 41 PAs, but with just an 87.2 mph aEV on 14 BBEs with 11 Ks. Dozier mashes lefties (154 wRC+, .307 ISO since last season) and is more affordable ($3.7 on DK, $3K on FanDuel) than usual against LHP tonight. Among matchups with at least 10 Statcast recorded BBEs, Carlos Gonzalez (94.4 mph aEV, 13 BBEs) has the only aEV above 91.5 mph. He has one HR and three extra-base hits in 33 PAs against Jeff Samardzija, but faces a massive park downshift from Colorado to San Francisco tonight. On just eight BBEs (10 PAs), Francisco Lindor has a 96.2 mph aEV with a HR against Cole Hamels.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Chris Sale, Carlos Gonzalez, Jeff Samardzija, Francisco Lindor, Cole Hamels Four Dodgers among hottest bats on the board over the last week
Corey Seager (363 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%, three HRs) and Robinson Chirinos (359 wRC+, 71.4 Hard%, two HRs) are the hottest hitters on the board tonight (10 PA min. last seven days), but the latter has a tough matchup against Carlos Carrasco (RHBs .278 wOBA since 2015) and is a part-time player. Seager would be a great play against Ricky Nolasco (RHBs 326 wOBA, 34.5 Hard%), but left Saturday’s game with a hamstring injury and hasn’t played since. Joc Pederson (287 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) is a more affordable play in the same lineup, though Justin Turner (260 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%, two HRs) and Cody Bellinger (252 wRC+, 60.9 Hard%, five HRs) are among the hottest bats on the slate too. Anthony Rendon has a 263 wRC+ with two HRs over the last week as well, but has hit the ball hard on just 33.3% of batted balls and Eddie Butler has held RHBs to a .300 wOBA with a 54.2 GB% this season.
Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Robinson Chirinos, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, Anthony Rendon Five of 12 offenses have an implied run line above five on the six game night slate
Five of 12 offenses have an implied run line above five runs tonight with the Yankees (5.84) currently being the highest. It looks like the most stackable spot against David Holmberg (RHBs 39.7 Hard%), but the Yankees are dealing with some injuries and have just a 96 wRC+ LHP. In theory, they should make short work of a subpar lefty, but on a night where players may be paying up for pitching, it could be difficult to afford top Yankee bats as well. Ricky Nolasco has allowed multiple HRs in 10 of 15 starts and would be the next victim against a red-hot Dodger offense (176 wRC+ over the last week). They have a 5.45 implied run line. Nolasco has a reverse split (RHBs .345 wOBA, 36.5 Hard% since last season), which may make Justin Turner (152 wRC+, 225 ISO RHP since last season) and Chris Taylor (124 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP this year) the top plays and persuade the Dodgers to play a few more RHBs tonight. LHBs have hit Nolasco well too though (.326 wOBA, 34.5 Hard%). While Eddie Butler has shown some improvement against RHBs this year (.300 wOBA, 54.2 GB%), LHBs continue to hit him hard (25 GB%, 38.3 Hard%), making not only Harper and Murphy top plays, but Brian Goodwin (101 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP since last season) a nice salary savor as well. Potentially less popular and with the lowest implied run line (5.1) of those above five, Cleveland bats could leave their mark on a returning Cole Hamels tonight.
Other tagged players: Chris Taylor, Ricky Nolasco, David Holmberg, Brian Goodwin, Eddie Butler, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Cole Hamels Eric Fryer scratched Sunday; Yadier Molina replaces and will bat fifth
Fryer has officially been scratched from the St. Louis Cardinals lineup for today’s game against the Pittsburgh Pirates due to a manager’s decision. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Yadier Molina, who will take over the catching duties and bat fifth in his return to the lineup.
As reported by: Official Twitter Account of the St. Louis Cardinals Other tagged players: Yadier Molina Zach Davies has a career-worst 7.9% K-BB% this season
Zach Davies continues to be just a serviceable starting pitcher at the Major League level and is someone that we typically don’t go out of our way to plug in lineups or go out of our way to avoid rostering opposing hitters. Davies is amid a relatively rough stretch of his season as well, allowing at least four runs in each of his last three starts, including a whopping seven earned runs his last time out. Today, he’ll take on a middling Atlanta Braves offense on the road in what has turned into one of the top hitters’ parks in the league, especially for left-handed batters, meaning this remains a boost to the home run and run expectations of the Braves hitters. Davies is a perfectly average starting pitcher, evidenced by his 18.2% career strikeout rate to batters from both sides of the plate, down to 15.5% this year, and is accompanied by a respectable, but not great, 48.1% groundball rate and an above-average 33.7% hard hit rate. Given the neutral matchup, we should give the edge to the Atlanta batters, though they can understandably be an underwhelming offense to target, especially with former MVP candidate, Freddie Freeman, still on the disabled list. The Braves bats are now headlined by the likes of Matt Adams (164 wRC+, .425 wOBA, .365 ISO vs RHP) and Matt Kemp (140 wRC+, .388 wOBA, .234 ISO vs RHP), whom makes his return to the lineup this afternoon following a late change that scratched Danny Santana from said lineup. While Brandon Phillips (121 wRC+, .360 wOBA) and Nick Markakis (108 wRC+, .341 wOBA) aren’t elite enough against right-handed pitching to join the company of the aforementioned players, they do possess enough contact skills at the plate to realistically be included as part of a Braves stack in tournaments, if deciding to take that likely contrarian route this fine Sunday afternoon.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Matt Kemp, Brandon Phillips, Nick Markakis, Zach Davies Danny Santana scratched Sunday; Matt Kemp replaces and will bat fourth
Santana has officially been scratched from the Atlanta Braves lineup for today’s game against the Milwaukee Brewers due to a manager’s decision. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Matt Kemp, who will take over the left field duties and bat fourth. This lineup change will demote Matt Adams and Kurt Suzuki down one spot in the order to fifth and sixth respectively. However, the remainder of the Braves previously confirmed lineup remains unchanged.
As reported by: Mark Bowman Other tagged players: Matt Kemp Some wind and very little rain concerns highlight Sunday's MLB weather forecast
There are almost no games this afternoon with a realistic threat of a rain delay, though there are several games that have some advantageous winds for hitters to potentially take advantage. The worst rain “concern” comes to us in Cleveland for the game between the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians where Kevin Roth currently has the risk classified as GREEN/YELLOW due to some very light showers in the area. Clearly, it’s easy to see that we should be in for a quiet weather day when the worst weather risk has the color GREEN associated with its classification. However, still be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Marwin Gonzalez scratched Saturday; Yulieski Gurriel replaces and will bat seventh
Gonzalez has officially been scratched from the Houston Astros lineup for tonight’s game against the Seattle Mariners due to oblique tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Yulieski Gurriel, who will take over the first base duties and bat seventh. Since Gurriel is slotting directly into Gonzalez’s spot in the lineup, the remainder of the Astros previously confirmed batting order remains unchanged.
As reported by: Brian McTaggart Other tagged players: Yulieski Gurriel Danny Valencia scratched Saturday; Taylor Motter replaces and will bat eighth
Valencia has officially been scratched from the Seattle Mariners lineup for tonight’s game against the Houston Astros due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Taylor Motter, who will take over the first base duties and bat eight. This lineup change will slide Jarrod Dyson up one spot to the seven-hole. However, the remainder of the Mariners previously confirmed batting order remains unchanged.
As reported by: Bob Condotta Other tagged players: Taylor Motter Yunel Escobar scratched Saturday; Cliff Pennington replaces and will bat ninth
Escobar has officially been scratched from the Los Angeles Angels lineup for tonight’s game against the Boston Red Sox due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Cliff Pennington, who will take over the third base duties and bat ninth. This lineup change will slide Andrelton Simmons, Martin Maldonado, Danny Espinosa, Luis Valbuena, and Eric Young each up one spot in the batting order to fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth respectively.
As reported by: Jeff Fletcher Other tagged players: Cliff Pennington Yadier Molina scratched Saturday; Eric Fryer replaces and will bat eighth
Molina has officially been scratched from the St. Louis Cardinals lineup for tonight’s game against the Pittsburgh Pirates due to knee soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Eric Fryer, who will take over the catching duties and bat eighth. This lineup change will slide Jose Martinez, Paul DeJong, and Greg Garcia each up one spot in the batting order to fifth, sixth, and seventh respectively. However, the remainder of the Cardinals previously confirmed batting order will remain the same.
As reported by: Jenifer Langosch Eddie Rosario scratched Saturday; Chris Gimenez replaces and will bat seventh
Rosario has officially been scratched from the Minnesota Twins lineup for today’s game against the Cleveland Indians due to an illness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Chris Gimenez, who will take over the left field duties and bat seventh. This lineup change will move Jorge Polanco up one spot to the seven-hole, while the remainder of the Twins previously confirmed batting order will remain the same.
As reported by: LaVelle E. Neal III Other tagged players: Chris Gimenez