DFS Alerts
Only five offenses implied for more than 4.9 runs tonight, but just two below four
Only five teams on a 13 game slate have an implied run line higher than 4.9 runs, though only two teams are currently below four and nobody lower than 3.7 runs. Three offenses (Houston, Boston, and Toronto) have an implied run line between 4.65 and 4.75 and will likely see the highest rates of offensive ownership. Josh Reddick (135 wRC+, .187 ISO vs RHP) should be a very popular value play in the Houston lineup against a below average RHP (Jesse Hahn), who has allowed LHBs a .385 wOBA and 37.6 Hard% since last season. Aaron Judge (221 wRC+, .380 ISO vs LHP) will likely be in as many lineups as players can fit him into against Carlos Rodon (RHBs .342 wOBA last season) in his first start of the year. Just under five runs (4.97) are the Diamondbacks hosting Adam Wainwright. Batters from either side have a wOBA above .350 against him since last season, making Paul Goldschmidt (139 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP since 2016) and Jake Lamb (141 wRC+, .287 ISO vs RHP since 2016) great plays at any ownership rates. Although Tampa Bay is third from the bottom with just a 4.05 implied run line, consider that Ivan Nova has allowed a .321 wOBA to LHBs with just a 10.5 K% against them this year, giving Tampa Bay LHBs Corey Dickerson (155 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP this year) and Logan Morrison (151 wRC+, .349 ISO vs RHP this year) several chances to elevate and punish him. Both have a 150+ wRC+ and 50+ Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison
Red Sox-Twins to start in a delay on Tuesday
Tonight’s MIN-BOS tilt will start in a delay due to rain. It still looks like this game should play, but we may deal with a non-negligible delay to kick things off, which is actually a better situation than if we were anticipating a mid-inning delay. Players from this game still carry some risk, especially pitchers, but it’s not a situation to completely write off.
As reported by: Chris Smith
Boston implied run line drops by one-third of a run, still highest on the board
After opening at 6.13, the Boston implied run line reached a high of 6.29 this afternoon before dropping below six runs to 5.96 since the lineup was confirmed. It is still the highest line on the board by more than a quarter of a run over Cleveland and actually gives players more affordable ways of accessing the top projected offense. Detroit has also seen a significant drop from 5.11 to 4.98 after posting a different lineup that moves Mikie Mahtook and Justin Upton up, while shifting J.D.Martinez down a spot. Arizona has seen some interesting movement the other way after opening at 4.31 implied runs and slowly dropping throughout the day to 4.06 runs, they’ve since moved back up to 4.31 within the last couple of hours. Players can see current lines and movement for all games using the Vegas Odds page
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Mikie Mahtook, Justin Upton Affordable Toronto bats expected to be popular on DK, Boston hitters on FD
The Toronto Bash Brothers, Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson, project to be the most popular bats on DraftKings. Each are affordably right around $4K against Kevin Gausman. RHBs have a .373 wOBA against him since last year. The Red Sox have the evening’s highest implied run line, the only team above six runs, and the top half of that order (Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Chris Young) are projected to be the most popular bats on FanDuel. Mark Reynolds, who has three career HRs against Matt Cain, currently has the top Contrarian Rating on either site and is expected to have minimal ownership rates on either site. Max Scherzer is the easy pick to be in the most lineups on the mound tonight. Jose Quintana has been pitching well lately, but is not expected to be in many lineups even against a weakened Yankee lineup. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and are available for premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Chris Young, Mark Reynolds, Max Scherzer, Jose Quintana Boston the most likely trouble spot in the late forecast
Kevin sees the potential for a late start in Boston (vs Minnesota), but hopes to see it play clean after that, though that’s not certain. The good news is that hitters from the offense with the highest run line tonight appear to be safe, though players who like Drew Pomeranz may need to consider the risk of a delay after the game starts. Read Kevin’s full report on the Weather page and be sure to follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Arizona and Washington are top three offenses vs ground ball pitchers (121 sOPS+ each)
Arizona and Washington are each tied for second with a 121 sOPS+ against ground ball pitching, significant because both are facing good ground ball pitchers tonight. The Nationals face Jake Arrieta, who’s 17.8 K-BB% suggests he’s been better than his 4.36 ERA, but may be tough to trust in this matchup. Carlos Martinez (27.8 K%, 2.87 ERA, 3.68 SIERA) has been better, but Arizona’s success against ground ball pitchers in a difficult park could provide reason for caution. One reason for that success is Paul Goldschmidt, who has raised his fly ball rate 10 points this year, but may just be bouncing back from a 28.8 FB% last season. He leads the team with a 236 sOPS+, but just four HRs against ground ballers this season. On the other end of the spectrum, Baltimore (83 sOPS+) and Miami (79 sOPS+) have been bottom five offenses vs GB pitchers. Joe Biagini has struggled a bit in recent starts, but is very cheap on DraftKings, facing a Baltimore offense with a 16.1 K-BB% vs RHP too. Robert Gsellman has gotten tattooed in two straight starts (14 ERs – 9.1 IP) and hasn’t been much better against the Marlins in three starts (14.2 IP – 14 R – 10 ER – 4 HR – 5 BB – 14 K).
As reported by: Baseball Reference Team Splits Other tagged players: Carlos Martinez, Jake Arrieta, Robert Gsellman, Joseph Biagini RotoGrinders Player Projections like inexpensive Boston bats on FanDuel tonight
The top seven overall bats according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections come from seven different teams tonight with the Blue Jays the first team to show up with a pair (Jose Bautista & Justin Smoak). Cody Bellinger (153 wRC+, .398 ISO vs RHP) was shut down last night, but owns the top projected bat in another solid matchup at home against Jesse Chavez (LHBs .327 wOBA since last season). Mookie Betts (115 wRC+, .257 ISO vs LHP since 2015) grabs the second spot in the lineup with the top implied run line against Hector Santiago (RHBs 37.5 Hard% since last year). Charlie Blackmon (135 wRC+, .277 ISO vs RHP) rounds out the top three with a massive park downgrade in San Francisco, but Matt Cain (LHBs .380 wOBA since last year) can make any park feel like Coors. Top projected values on FanDuel are among the cheaper Boston bats in Chris Young (4.47 Pt/$/K) and Sam Travis (3.86 Pt/$/K), both for just $2.3K. The former has failed to do much against LHP this year (71 wRC+, .047 ISO), while the latter does not yet have even 30 PAs against them at the major league level. Among those projected for at least seven points on DraftKings, Carlos Santana may be the top value for just $3.2K against Tyson Ross. He has a 107 wRC+ and .189 ISO vs RHP this year, but drops down to seventh in the Cleveland lineup tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Sam Travis, Mookie Betts, Carlos Santana, Cody Bellinger, Jose Bautista, Justin Smoak, Mookie Betts, Charlie Blackmon Consider LH Cincinnati bats against Junior Guerra (LHBs 36.8 Hard% since last year)
Junior Guerra has a 3.11 ERA, but 5.78 SIERA through seven starts with just a 3.1 K-BB%. While he has held LHBs to a .277 wOBA since last season that comes with a 36.8 Hard%. He’s due for a beating and this Cincinnati offense has the left-handed power to administer one. Joey Votto (162 wRC+, .253 ISO) and Scott Schebler (112 RC+, .223 ISO) have excelled against RHP since last season, while Scooter Gennett (148 wRC+, .293 ISO) has done so this year and even Tucker Barnhart (not in projected lineup) has been crushing the ball lately (399 wRC+ last seven days). Junior Guerra likes to live outside against LHBs according to Plate IQ and Votto and Schebler are hot in those zones as well. Guerra also likes to throw a splitter that Schebler has some success against. To cap it off, Cincinnati is one of the highlighted offenses by our daily Trendspotting article (premium subscription required) in which key batted ball trends are looked at. Adam Duvall hits RHP well (103 wRC+, .250 ISO since last year) and grades out well in that article as well.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Trendspotting Other tagged players: Scott Schebler, Scooter Gennett, Tucker Barnhart, Junior Guerra Max Scherzer projects as the top pitcher tonight, but James Paxton could be a better value
Max Scherzer is the top projected pitcher on the slate by a wide margin with the RotoGrinders Player Projections grouping several pitchers (James Paxton, Luis Severino, Carlos Martinez, Justin Verlander) closely together far behind him. The Daily K Predictor also likes Scherzer (8.77) for more than a strikeout more than Justin Verlander (7.62) and James Paxton (7.01). While Scherzer is the no brainer, Paxton could be the top value. His velocity and strikeouts bumped back up in his most recent start (eight strikeouts, 25 batters). He faces the Phillies (71 wRC+ on the road, 82 wRC+ vs LHP) at Safeco for less than $9K on either site. Verlander struck out 11 with just one walk in his last start. He also has a favorable matchup against the Royals (85 wRC+ on the road, 82 wRC+ vs RHP), but has an 11.2 BB% on the season and has allowed hard contact on 37.8% of batted balls with a 34% ground ball rate. He costs a bit more than Paxton on FanDuel. A cheaper name to look at might be Aaron Nola. Consistency has been an issue, but after a strong effort in his most recent start (7.1 IP – 1 ER – 8 K), he now has a 49.1 GB%, 3.5 Hard-Soft% and 15.2 K-BB% on the season. He faces a tough offense, but in a great park in Seattle.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Carlos Marmol, Aaron Nola Royals have a deep history against Justin Verlander, Eric Hosmer 94.4 mph aEV (13 BBEs)
Alex Gordon has homered three times against Justin Verlander. No other matchup has more BvP homers, but Gordon also has just an 84.7 mph aEV on 10 BBEs and hasn’t been a relevant hitter in nearly two years. The numbers on Verlander and the Royals go deep with Eric Hosmer having the most success. He’s homered just twice in 83 PAs, but has eight extra-base hits and a 94.4 mph aEV on 13 BBEs recorded since 2015. The issue with Hosmer has always been elevating the ball, but Verlander’s extreme fly ball rate helps him out there. Mark Reynolds has 95.9 mph aEV on six BBEs and two HRs (six extra-base hits) in 28 PAs against Matt Cain, but how will that transfer from Colorado to San Francisco. Evan Gattis has a 96.9 mph aEV on seven BBEs and one HR in 12 PAs against Sean Manaea.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Alex Gordon, Justin Verlander, Evan Gattis, Mark Reynolds, Sean Manaea, Matt Cain Week's hottest hitters results in very few playable bats tonight.
Six batters have a wRC+ above 300 over the last week, though players are unlikely to use any of them tonight. .Corey Seager (473 wRC+, 77.8 Hard%, three HRs) has missed the last couple of days with a hamstring injury. Tucker Barnhart (399 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%, 0 HRs) and Robinson Chirinos (358 wRC+, 71.4 Hard%, two HRs) barely meet the 10 PA minimum threshold. Josh Reddick (332 wRC+, 53.3 Hard%, two HRs) often sits against LHP. Howie Kendrick (327 wRC+, 50 Hard%, 0 HRs) has a tough matchup in Seattle against a reverse split pitcher (James Paxton RHBs .303 wOBA since last season). Michael Taylor (301 wRC+, 72.7 Hard%, three HRs) will likely bat eighth against Jake Arrieta (RHBs .263 wOBA since last season). We find some more useful names in the next tier like Curtis Granderson (285 wRC+, 50 Hard%, three HRs) vs Dan Straily, Joc Pederson (280 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) vs Jesse Chavez, and even Sandy Leon (276 wRC+, 55.6 Hard%, one HR) vs Hector Santiago.
Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Tucker Barnhart, Robinson Chirinos, Josh Reddick, Howie Kendrick, Michael A. Taylor, Curtis Granderson, Sandy Leon The Red Sox have an implied run line more than a half run higher than any other offense
The Boston Red Sox have a significant lead on the field with a 6.29 implied run line, well over half a run more than any other team. Eight more teams are implied for 4.9 runs or more. More affordable Boston bats like Dustin Pedroia, Chris Young, Sandy Leon, Jackie Bradley Jr. and whoever ends up at 1B if Hanley Ramirez misses again (Hector Santiago has actually been worse against LHBs) could provide a pathway to pay up for Max Scherzer. LH Cleveland bats should be popular against Tyson Ross as will Toronto stacks against Kevin Gausman (RHBs .373 wOBA since last season). Another spot players may want to look for affordable bats is LH Pirates. Alex Cobb has surrendered a .359 wOBA (37.3 Hard%) to LHBs since last season and the Pirates are employing a more balanced lineup in recent weeks. Adam Frazier (105 wRC+) has been a league average bat against RHP, while both Josh Bell and John Jaso have an ISO above .200 against them. On the other side of that matchup, batters from either side have a wOBA above .340 against Trevor Williams, though RHBs have a hard hit rate nearly 10 points higher (34.7% to 25.4%). The Rays have just a middling 4.42 implied run line.
Other tagged players: Chris Young, Sandy Leon, Jackie Bradley, Hanley Ramirez, Max Scherzer, Adam Frazier, Josh Bellamy, John Jaso Texas @ Cleveland may be a potential delay spot in the evening forecast
Texas Cleveland appears to be the game with the biggest chance of seeing a weather related delay as Kevin also notes much smaller risks in Minnesota Boston and New York (AL) Chicago (AL), though he doesn't expect any impact in those games. Carlos Carrasco would be the concern here as anything other than a short delay once the game starts could put him at risk. There are other pitchers to pivot to, but they are already expected to be highly owned. Ownership considerations may still make him worth the risk. Of course, players will want to stay tuned to Kevin's Twitter feed (KevinRothWx) for further updates and read the full report on the Weather page.
Big bats and value plays from Nationals and Yankees expected to be most popular tonight
It’s a six game slate unusually rich in both arms and bats tonight. Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper and Cody Bellinger are all expected to be extremely popular tonight and then some value plays like Tyler Austin and Brian Goodwin as well, especially for players still looking to pay up for pitching. Overall, Dodger bats appear as if they may go under-owned, especially from the RH side on DraftKings. Ricky Nolasco has reverse platoon splits this year (RHBs .391 wOBA), over the last two seasons (RHBs .345 wOBA). On the mound, Chris Sale is expected to be a bit more popular than Jeff Samardzija, who has a massive price advantage as well as a park and matchup one. A high price tag may be the reason for Jose Berrios projecting at less than 10% on either site currently. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and are available for all players to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Cody Bellinger, Tyler Austin, Brian Goodwin, Jeff Samardzija, Jose Berrios, Chris Sale Nationals have three of the top five overall projected bats via RotoGrinders Player Projections
The Nationals have the second highest implied run line at this time (5.53), but three of the top five projected bats according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections. Bryce Harper projects for the most daily fantasy points tonight against Eddie Butler, followed by Aaron Judge before teammates Trea Turner and Daniel Murphy. NL Rookie of the Year lock Cody Bellinger rounds out the top five. All except Turner have the platoon advantage tonight, but Butler’s 54.2 GB% against RHBs could actually help his speed play up in this spot. Tyler Austin (3.95 Pt/$/K) projects as the top value on Fanduel just $2.2K and should be coming up with plenty of runners on base provided the big bats ahead of him don’t clear them first. Mitch Moreland is the top projected value on either site (2.34 Pt/$/K on DK) if we’re looking at an eight point projection minimum, though Jose Berrios has been a much improved pitcher at the major league level this year.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, Cody Bellinger, Tyler Austin, Mitch Moreland