DFS Alerts
Tommy Pham scratched Friday; Dexter Fowler will play CF and bat second
Pham has officially been scratched from the St. Louis Cardinals lineup for tonight’s game against the Pittsburgh Pirates due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Dexter Fowler, who will take over the center field duties and bat second. Since Fowler is slotting directly into Pham’s spot in the order, the remainder of the Cardinals initial confirmed lineup remains unchanged.
As reported by: Jenifer Langosch Other tagged players: Dexter Fowler
Harper and Goldschmidt project as top bats against two first time starters
Bryce Harper and Paul Goldschmidt are projected as tonight’s top overall bats, both facing first time starters in Luis Castillo and Mark Leiter. Harper may have the more difficult matchup against Castillo, making his major league debut. He was a bit old for the league at 24, but posted a 21.4 K-BB% at AA this year. Evaluations on his major league future seem to be mixed. Leiter has walked more than he’s struck out (-2.4 K-BB%) in 19 major league innings in relief in could have a difficult time in Arizona if that continues. Among those projected for more than eight fantasy points, Yonder Alonso may be the top value on FanDuel (3.74 Pt/$/K). He costs just $3.1K in his battle against Mike Pelfrey (LHBs .368 wOBA since last season). Using the same criteria on DraftKings, Jose Bautista (2.48 Pt/$/K) still costs less than $4K and faces Jakob Junis (41.3% of BBEs 95+ mph EV)
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Mark Leiter Jr., Luis Castillo, Yonder Alonso, Jose Bautista, Mike Pelfrey, Jakob Junis
RotoGrinders Projections see Archer and Strasburg as top arms, but Wood a better value
Chris Archer (8.33) and Stephen Strasburg (7.74) are the only pitchers the Daily K Predictor sees reaching seven strikeouts or more. Masahiro Tanaka (6.7) follows. He’s used his spiltter and slider more often in recent starts to accumulate more strikeouts, but still has problems locating consistently, leading to a massive HR issue (18 in his last nine starts). Trevor Bauer (6.63) generally has an enormous range of outcomes, but his 8.8 SwStr% this year does not support his 27.6 K%. Alex Wood (6.42) only has a problem with volume. He has a 29.8 K% and 66.9 GB% on the season, but rarely throws more than 90 pitches. His cost is discounted below $10K to well compensate for that fact though, as he remains a top pitcher on most slates. J.A. Happ (6.41) was rusty in his first two starts back from the DL, but has struck out 17 of his last 53 batters with just one walk and is sporting a career high 22.7 K-BB% and 10.9 SwStr%. The RotoGrinders Player Projections see Archer and Strasburg as the top two arms as well, but closely followed by Wood, who the projections see as potentially a better value.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Stephen Strasburg, Chris Archer, Masahiro Tanaka, Trevor Bauer, J.A. Happ Jonathan Schoop has three HRs & 98.5 mph aEV (13 BBEs) against Chris Archer
Statcast BvP data spits out some odd information tonight. Much of the Baltimore offense has a high aEV against Chris Archer. Manny Machado (93.8 mph), Mark Trumbo (95.1 mph), and Adam Jones (93 mph) have all hit the ball hard with at least 10 BBEs recorded by Statcast. Seth Smith adds a 102.3 mph aEV on six BBEs. It’s Jonathan Schoop (98.5 mph aEV, 13 BBEs) who has had the most success against him though. He’s homered three times in 19 PAs, while no other Oriole has more than one. In the non-Archer/Orioles high aEV category, Brian Dozier has a 97.5 mph aEV on 13 BBEs against Trevor Bauer, but with just one extra-base hit in 34 PAs. Howie Kendrick (95.4 mph aEV, 11 BBEs) does not have a single extra-base hit against Patrick Corbin (17 PAs). Brett Gardner has homered four times in 12 PAs against Yu Darvish, but without a recorded BBE in the Statcast era.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Chris Archer, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Seth Smith, Brian Dozier, Trevor Bauer, Brett Gardner, Howie Kendrick Carlos Gomez has five HRs last seven days, Masahiro Tanaka has surrendered 18 in 9 starts
Josh Reddick (443 wRC+, 60 Hard%, one HR) just meets the minimum PA requirement (10) for the week, but has returned to the Houston lineup with a fury. He gets a park downgrade tonight and has not had success against King Felix (79.2 mph aEV, 14 BBEs), but it’s been hard to call him anything better than a league average pitcher in recent seasons. Jose Ramirez (307 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) looks to continue his onslaught against Adalberto Mejia (RHBs .367 wOBA career). Carlos Gomez (288 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%, five HRs) brings his hot act to Yankee Stadium to face a pitcher who has allowed 18 HRs over his last nine starts with no discrimination towards batter handedness. Justin Turner (287 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, three HRs) homered off a lefty last night, but has been better against RHP in his career and faces a LHP (Kyle Freeland) who has kept RHBs on the ground (63.6%) much more often than LHBs. Steve Pearce (284 wRC+, 46.7 Hard%, one HR) may be dealing with the wind blowing in from left in Kansas City, but Jakob Junis has allowed an exit velocity above 95 mph on 41.3% of his contact. Yangervis Solarte (281 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, four HRs) is facing Michael Fulmer, who has struggled in June (13 ERs in 18 IP) and may be dealing with a shoulder issue.
Other tagged players: Josh Reddick, Jose Ramirez, Steve Pearce, Yangervis Solarte, Michael Fulmer, Jakob Junis, Kyle Freeland, Masahiro Tanaka, Felix Hernandez Cleveland has been pounding LHP recently w/ cheaper lefty mashers at the bottom of the lineup
Four teams have an implied run line above five and a half tonight with another nine between 4.8 and 5.2. That should spread out the bats well enough and even move down ownership of Aaron Judge against Yu Darvish. One would think that red-hot Cleveland RHBs would be popular again against LHP Adalberto Mejia (RHBs .367 wOBA, 37.2 Hard%). Edwin Encarnacion (144 wRC+, .190 ISO vs LHP this year) and Jose Ramirez (114 wRC+, .190 ISO vs LHP) remain expensive and potentially difficult to afford with high cost pitching, but consider that Austin Jackson (176 wRC+, .263 ISO) and Yan Gomes (124 wRC+, .235 ISO) have been just as effective against southpaws this year, while both have a 190+ ISO and 50% hard hit rate over the last week and cost much less. The Dodgers are another team pounding the baseball and while some may consider avoiding their lefties against Kyle Freeland, let’s note something odd in his splits that may keep Cody Bellinger (153 wRC+, .388 ISO, 50 Hard% vs LHP) and Corey Seager (148 wRC+, .237 ISO vs LHP) on the board. Freeland has generated ground balls on contact 63.6% of the time against RHBs, but just 38% of the time against same handed batters with a 36% hard hit rate. Both of those Dodger LHBs have a 230+ wRC+ and 60+ Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Yan Gomes, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Kyle Freeland, Aaron Judge, Yu Darvish Braves-Giants being delayed due to rain
No official start time has been announced, but it looks like there will be clearing in the near future which should allow this game to play through tonight.
As reported by: @Braves
Baltimore has dropped under five implied runs in the last hour.
Baltimore has dropped from 5.11 implied runs to 4.96 in the last hour, tied for the largest line move in that time span with the team they are facing, who have improved by as much (5.39 to 5.54). Mike Clevinger appeared to be being a bit under-valued by Vegas. He has a 20.6 K-BB% over his last five starts with a .252 wOBA and 30.9 K% against RHP this year and appears to be getting some late support. Players can track line moves throughout the day using our Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Hyun-Jin Ryu may be more popular than a very expensive Luis Severino on DraftKings tonight
On a six game slate with the Yankees implied for the most runs (5.65), Aaron Judge is expected to be in around 30% of lineups on either site, as he’s been the last couple of days at home. Several Yankee teammates and Nelson Cruz in a nice lefty-mashing spot join him above 20% tonight. Although Miguel Cabrera appears to be the value pick at 1B at least on DraftKings for $3.4K, Justin Bour gets higher Contrarian Ratings (ContR) in a matchup against Jake Arrieta. Pitching is more interesting. Luis Severino costs at least $3K more than anyone else on DraftKings, where he’s expected to be exceeded by Hyun-Jin Ryu. On a six game slate, most usable options should be well represented on a two pitcher site, but Jaime Garcia at 25% may be getting the short end. He’s back to generating lots of weak ground balls this year with a SwStr above 18% over his last two starts. All in a similar price range on FanDuel, Severino is expected to be more popular than anyone else by far with Garcia coming in around 10%. Premium subscribers can find ownership projections for all players, which are updated throughout the evening, on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Luis Severino, Aaron Judge, Jaime Garcia, Nelson Cruz, Justin Bour, Miguel Cabrera Potential late start in Atlanta again, though little overall concern.
The weather report in Atlanta (vs San Francisco) appears more optimistic tonight with the evening forecast calling for a potential late start, but clear skies after that. There aren’t any other concerns on the six game slate. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and follow David on Twitter (@DavidWolter1) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Giants (76 sOPS+) and Marlins (81 sOPS+) are bottom five offenses against ground ball pitchers
The Giants have been a bottom offense in almost every category this season and although they’re probably not as bad as the numbers when fully healthy and have shown improvement over the last few weeks, they remain last in the majors with a 76 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers. Jaime Garcia’s 56.5 GB% (1.6 Hard-Soft%) is seventh best among qualified starters this season in addition to an 18+ SwStr% in each of his last two starts. Jake Arrieta has had more difficult time generating grounders this season (43.8%) and stranding runners (65.8%), but his peripherals are fine (18.2 K-BB%) and perhaps he’s turning it around in June with a 54.8 GB% in three starts. That’s significant because the Marlins are a bottom five offense with just an 81 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers, although Giancarlo Stanton (190 sOPS+, five HRs) and Marcell Ozuna (174 sOPS+, seven HRs have excelled against them). With Arrieta holding RHBs to a .291 wOBA and 21.3 K-BB% this season, Justin Bour (116 sOPS+, five HRs vs ground ball pitchers) may be his biggest concern.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Jaime Garcia, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Justin Bour Mike Clevinger has a 20.6 K-BB% over his last five starts
Mike Clevinger has a 16.2 K-BB% on the season with a double digit walk rate, but a 20.6 K-BB% with a league average walk rate if you remove his first two starts. Against RHBs, he has allowed a .252 wOBA with a 30.9 K%. That’s significant because the Orioles have only a couple of LHBs. The Orioles have a 16.3 K-BB% vs RHP (94 wRC+) as well as a 94 wRC+ at home. In addition, they have been equally poor against fly ball pitchers (94 sOPS+) despite the power friendly park. Clevinger has coaxed grounders on only 38.5% of his contact. Of the players in the lineup tonight for Baltimore with more than 20 PAs against fly ball pitchers, only Trey Mancini (138 sOPS+, five HRs), Seth Smith (136 sOPS+, three HRs), Welington Castillo (118 sOPS+, four HRs) and Jonathan Schoop (107 sOPS+, four HRs) have an sOPS+ above 90 this year. Castillo has additionally struggled with RHP throughout his career. Clevinger costs just $5.7K on DraftKings and could be an interesting SP2 on a small slate.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Seth Smith, Trey Mancini, Jonathan Schoop, Welington Castillo Yankees and Indians dominate RG Player Projections, cheap lefty-mashers for top value
Aaron Judge and Edwin Encarnacion have the top batter projections tonight in the RotoGrinders Player Projections. Both have mashable matchups. The rest of the top five is scattered among different teams before the Yankees and Indians make up the reminder of the top 10 by themselves. It’s surely a night where both offenses project very well and should be easily affordable with only only one $10K pitcher on either site. If looking to save a few dollars, the projections believe the best place for that might be first base on DraftKings, where you’d be forced to forego Encarnacion in favor of Danny Valencia (2.55 Pt/$/K) or Wilmer Flores (2.51 Pt/$/K) both facing LHPs for $3K or less, though the latter is third base eligible as well. Miguel Cabrera (2.48 Pt/$/K) is another top choice for a few dollars more. Projections for FanDuel really like another lefty-masher, Franklin Gutierrez (3.92 Pt/$/K) for just above the minimum.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Danny Valencia, Wilmer Flores, Miguel Cabrera, Franklin Gutierrez Anthony Rizzo has four HRs against Jeff Locke despite just an 84.8 mph aEV
There’s very little useful Statcast information on tonight’s BvP matchups. Not a single player with more than seven BBEs since 2015 (when the Statcast era began) has an aEV above 90.1 mph. We do have HRs though. Despite just an 84.8 mph aEV on 15 recorded BBEs, Anthony Rizzo has homered four times against Jeff Locke with seven total extra-base hits in 30 PAs. With only three Statcast recorded BBEs between them, Matt Kemp and Brandon Phillips have a combined seven HRs against Matt Cain. Kemp and Cain faced each other often during the former’s Dodger days. Both, along with Phillips are lesser quality players now, but Cain (2.8 SwStr% last five starts) may have fallen the farthest from his All-Star days. On just six BBEs, Edwin Encarnacion has a 100.2 mph aEV against Wade Miley with two HRs and two doubles in 17 PAs, as if there weren’t already enough motivation to load up on that matchup.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Jeff Locke, Matt Kemp, Brandon Phillips, Matt Cain, Edwin Encarnacion, Wade Miley Jaime Garcia & Jake Arrieta may compare favorably to Luis Severino at lower costs on DK
It would be easy to call Luis Severino the top pitcher on the slate tonight, but not so easy to fit his $12.3K cost into your DraftKings lineup. The RotoGrinders Player Projections see him as the top pitcher on the slate, but not too far above Jake Arrieta or even Jaime Garcia for $5K less. It’s a different story on FanDuel, where cost runs more closely together. Over the last month, Severino has a 27.3 K% and 12.8 SwStr%. By a fraction of a point, Arrieta edges him with a 27.4 K%, while Garcia has a 12.9 SwStr%. Despite moving to a tougher park this season, Garcia seems to have solved his HR problem (12.9 HR/FB) and is back to generating weak ground balls (56.6 GB%, 1.6 Hard-Soft%). Arrieta is still working things out and hasn’t been as good as seasons past, but his contact has not been that bad (43.8 GB%, 32.4 Hard%) and his peripherals are better than last year (18.2 K-BB%). A little strand rate luck (65.8%) and he’s still a quality pitcher. All three have similarly favorable matchups tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Jake Arrieta, Luis Severino