DFS Alerts

Two Cleveland RHBs (Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion) among the hottest on the slate

Jose Ramirez remains the hottest hitter on the slate and the only qualified one (10 PA min.) with a wRC+ above 300 over the last week. His 320 wRC+ and 51.5 Hard% with two HRs goes up against Wade Miley, who’s been trading strikeouts for ground ball since the season began, though RHBs continue to have success against him this year (.352 wOBA, 52.1 GB%, 34.7 Hard%). Guillermo Heredia (271 wRC+, 62.5 Hard%, 1 HR) just meets the PA threshold, but should be near the top of the lineup against Daniel Norris (RHBs .344 wOBA, 39.1 Hard% since last season). Justin Turner (261 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, two HRs) sat last night, but will hopefully be back against the lefty Steven Matz tonight, who has stopped throwing his slider. Edwin Encarnacion (247 wRC+, 46.2 Hard%, five HRs) enjoys the same quality matchup with Miley.

Matt Cain has just a 2.8 SwStr% over his last five starts

Five of the 12 offenses on the night slate have an implied run line of 4.9 or higher with only the Mets and Angels below 3.8. RH Yankee bats are an obvious choice against Jesse Chavez (RHBs .341 wOBA, 36.8 Hard% since last year) as are RH Cleveland bats against Wade Miley (.357 wOBA, 33.3 Hard% since last year). Baltimore is projected for more than five runs as well, but Mike Clevinger has been a different pitcher against RHBs this year (.252 wOBA, 30.9 K%) and could foil those plans. Daniel Norris has a 19.2 K-BB% with an 11.0 SwStr% in three June starts, although with just a 26.7 GB% and 48.9 Hard%. RHBs have a .344 wOBA and 39.1 Hard% against him since last year. The most interesting offense to look at might be the Braves. Matt Cain has just a 2.8 SwStr% over the last month making five starts. Both right and left-handed batters have a wOBA above .350 against him since last season. Matts, Adams and Kemp, both have a 140+ wRC+ and .230+ ISO against RHP this year. Tyler Flowers has a 148 wRC+ and .169 ISO against RHP this year too, while NIck Markakis (102 wRC+ vs RHP) could score some runs for just $3.5K on DraftKings.

Josh Donaldson (knee) scratched Thursday, Kendrys Morales will start

A new lineup hasn’t been released yet but Justin Smoak will reportedly bat third, which presumably puts Morales in the cleanup spot. Across 63 plate appearances against LHP since 2016, Morales has posted a .262 ISO, .379 wOBA, 46.8% Hard%, and 34.0% FB%. He’ll face lefty Martin Perez today, who’s allowing a .163 ISO, .348 wOBA, 37.6% Hard%, and 33.3% FB% against RHB this season. It sets up a nice spot for him and his squad has a projected run total of 5.33, although it’s trending in the wrong direction as we approach game time.

UPDATE: Blue Jays have confirmed Morales will bat fourth today.

CHW-MIN game will be delayed Thursday

Due to rain, this game won’t begin on time and new starting time hasn’t been announced yet. David Wolter still believes they’ll be able to get this game in as the inclement weather shouldn’t stick around too long.

Jose Bautista struggling against LHP this season; in solid spot to turn that around on Thursday

Throughout his career, Bautista has produced similar numbers regardless of the opposing pitcher’s handedness. Compare some of his statistics against lefties – .371 wOBA, .236 ISO, 17.5% K%, 48.7% FB%, 33.6% Hard% – to his production against righties – .369 wOBA, .235 ISO, 18.6% K%, 44.4% FB%, 34.9% Hard%. So it’s a little surprising to see such drastic splits this year. While his numbers against RHP have taken slight dips this season, against LHP, he has a miserable .202 wOBA, .054 ISO, 31.3% K%, and 20.0% Hard% while his FB% remains solid at 40.0%. The high strikeout rate and low hard contact are very surprising and likely play a big factor in his decline in the other categories. Also contributing to his drop is his .147 BABIP, which again, is partially due to his low hard contact rate. The thing is, he hasn’t been making a lot of soft contact either, just 8.6%. Oddly enough, 71.4% of his contact is considered medium. Bautista has only made 67 plate appearances against lefties this season and his batted balls will undoubtedly even out towards his normal rates. Even if he doesn’t quite reach the same levels – he is a 36-year-old after all – it would be shocking if is Hard% against LHP didn’t rise substantially, which would bring up his ISO and wOBA in turn. He’ll need to stop striking out as much too. Today’s matchup could provide him an opportunity to begin righting the course in both areas as he squares off against Martin Perez, who holds a 7.7% SwStr% overall along with a low 15.1% K% and a high 37.6% Hard% against RHB this year. He’ll also get a nice warm, humid day down in Arlington this afternoon as he mans the leadoff spot for the Blue Jays. Our projection model believes in him, particularly on DraftKings – he’s our second OF in raw points on the early slate on the site and and second-best points-per-dollar option overall. Also, Toronto has the second-highest total on the board (5.58). It looks like a good time to buy low on Joey Bats.

Pitching notes for Thursday's early slate

Carlos Martinez is the best pitcher available on the early slate this afternoon; his 28.5% K% is a 4.7% above the second guy, David Paulino, he has the lowest SIERA (3.59), and he’s playing the Phillies, whose lineup has combined K% of 22.1% and a .154 ISO. Vegas agrees, providing Philadelphia the lowest total on the board (3.96). Naturally, he’ll cost a premium today – $13.5k on DraftKings and $10.4k on FanDuel. That feels too cheap on FD – he projects as both our overall SP1 and top points-per-dollar option by a wide margin on the site. His counterpart Aaron Nola is very affordable at $6.6k on DraftKings, although he’s a little more expensive on FanDuel with a $7.7k price tag. The Cardinals have the fourth-lowest implied total (4.52), but PlateIQ shows their ISO at .200 today paired with a .343 wOBA. On the positive side, he has a better strikeout rate against RHB (24.3% this season vs 19.5% against LHB) and he’s currently expected to face seven righties today. David Paulino has the second-highest K% (23.8%), although he’s only pitched 19.2 innings this season. That matches up well with an Oakland team that has the highest projected strikeout rate (23.1%). However, they also hit a ton of fly balls and Paulino has a sky-high 52.7% FB% rate this year along with a 35.7% Hard%, which appears to put him in a dangerous spot. His journey through the minors hasn’t displayed any consistency in batted balls, so he remains a bit of an unknown at this point, but through 113 total batters faced in the majors (which includes three appearances in 2016), he’s posted a 50.0% FB% and 32.9% Hard%. Chase Anderson is third in strikeout rate (22.8%) and he has a 10.4% SwStr%. While the Pirates don’t strikeout a ton – their lineup has a 17.4% K% – they don’t have a very threatening ISO (.164), which could help preserve Anderson’s 2.92 ERA, although he does have a 4.21 SIERA. As with every outdoor game outside of Minneapolis, we’re going to get hitter-friendly weather down in Texas, where the Rangers host the Blue Jays and Marcus Stroman – it’s expected to be warm and humid. Stroman has the second-lowest SIERA (3.69) but he doesn’t boast a strong k-rate (19.7%). Fortunately, the Rangers lineup has a pitcher-friendly 22.7% K%. On the other hand, they have a .217 ISO and high fly-ball rate, which adds plenty of risk, and Texas currently has an implied total of 4.91. Overall, Martinez seems like the obvious target on FanDuel, but with his high price on DraftKings, it may make sense to choose a pair of cheaper options in GPPs. If rolling with him in the SP1 slot, the choice for SP2 on DK is tough with several options projected to produce similar fantasy points. On a warm-weather day like this, ground balls become a key factor. Stroman and Zach Godely lead the way with ground ball rates of 61.2% and 60.2%, respectively. Godley also boasts a 13.5% SwStr%, but he’s in Coors today. Vegas give the Rockies the highest total this afternoon (5.96) despite them having a projected .163 ISO and a 21.9% K%. All this makes Godley, who’s coming off an eight-strikeout start, an interesting high-risk GPP option. Nola and Martinez also have strong ground ball rates of 50.9% and 49.7%, respectively. Nola’s price tag makes him another risky tournament choice worth consideration.

CHW-MIN game (ORANGE/YELLOW) the only major trouble spot on Thursday's early slate

We’re expecting some rain to head into the area right around game time. It looks like there’s a legitimate possibility of a delay. Although it seems like they could wait it out and avoid a PPD, we can’t rule it out. Outside of this matchup, we have the ARI-COL tilt listed as YELLOW/GREEN due to some storms in Denver during the game – while a delay is possible, there won’t be a PPD here. Other than that, we’re good to go.We have excellent hitting conditions across the board with high temperatures and humidity for the whole slate. Check out the weather page for complete details.

Indians-Orioles being delayed due to weather; no start time announced as of yet

It still looks like this game will play, but it’ll get off to a late start with inclement weather currently hitting the stadium. Hitters still look safe to target here.

San Francisco @ Atlanta may be a trouble spot tonight

David’s evening forecast calls for potential rain throughout the night in Atlanta with his latest tweets suggesting pitching could be problematic in that game. There is a slight risk for Cleveland Baltimore to get started late as well, but Carlos Carrasco appears safe at this time. Read the full report on our Weather page and be sure to follow David on Twitter (DavidWolter1) as he updates the situations in Atlanta and Baltimore.

Yankees and Coors bats project to be most popular tonight

Yankees (Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez) and Rockies (Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon) are expected to be most popular on DraftKings tonight with only Gary Sanchez reaching 20% currently. Brian Dozier projects similarly on FanDuel with Gary Sanchez following and then a trail of Coors bats. While this covers the two teams with the highest implied run lines tonight and the only ones above six, there are eight more teams Vegas likes to score five runs or more tonight and plenty of options offensively. Dodger bats have pounded Mets pitching for two straight days and face spot starter Tyler Pill tonight with only Cody Bellinger projected to be in more than 10% of lineups on either site. Cardinal bats with an implied run line of five are expected to be even more lightly owned in Philadelphia against Nick Pivetta. On the mound, Jose Berrios is expected to be most popular, but the cost is high and his estimators are a run above his ERA. Jeff Samardzija has a 3.81 ERA and 29 K% outside of Coors this year and is expected to be owned in no more than 10% of lineups tonight, if weather cooperates. Ownership projections for all players are updated until first pitch and are available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.

Four of the top five projected batters play at Coors tonight

The RotoGrinders Player Projections like Coors bats tonight with Charlie Blackmon, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, and Nolan Arenado all among the top five overall point projections along with Aaron Judge at home against Ricky Nolasco. Colorado and the Yankees are the two offenses with implied run lines above six tonight with Arizona a bit lower a 5.44 currently. The pitching at Coors does have the talent to foil plans. Jeff Hoffman has a 28.4 K% and 2.25 ERA with an 11.3 SwStr% and 3.37 SIERA that are only slightly less optimistic. Taijuan Walker had a strong April before a poor May led to a DL stint. He bounced back with a strong start last time out and is a talented pitcher when healthy. Among players projected for at least seven DK points, Wilmer Flores (vs Rich Hill) and Miguel Sano (vs David Holmberg) project as top values (both at 2.54 Pt/$/K). Sano costs just $3.9K! Projections for FanDuel like Robbie Grossman (3.74 Pt/$/K) from the same lineup and Jedd Gyorko (3.69 Pt/$/K) as top values.

Jose Berrios has an elite 15.5% HH% and 29.2% K% versus RHB

As a former highly-touted prospect coming up through the Minnesota Twins minor league system, Jose Berrios seems to have figured it out at the Major League level and appears to have officially “arrived” as a front-end of the rotation starting pitcher, allowing two earned runs or less in five of his seven starts since being called up in mid-May. During that span, he has a more than respectable 45:14 K:BB ratio and has seen his walk rate drop to 7.7% from the astronomical 12.5% walk rate he issued in 14 starts last season. Berrios has been incredible at limiting hard contact thus far, coming into tonight’s start with a 22.2% hard hit rate on the year, and though that mark is likely somewhat fluky due to sample size, his hard hit rate would still be well below league average even if it were to increase a few percentage points over time. Clearly, Berrios is a great young pitcher with high strikeout potential who has seemingly found his control at the big league level. He’ll receive the added benefit of facing off with a Chicago White Sox squad tonight that ranks 25th in wRC+, 25th in wOBA, and 22nd in ISO versus right-handed pitching, in addition to striking out at a 22.7% clip and drawing the least number of walks in the Majors (6.2% BB%). As evidenced, Berrios looks to have a clear advantage in terms of matchup over the other top-end starting pitchers, making him the preferred option in cash games and tournaments alike across the industry, but especially on FanDuel where his salary is less inflated than other sites.

Carlos Carrasco has a 21.3% K-BB% versus RHB and faces a starting lineup with just two LHB

Carlos Carrasco is coming off of solid outings in two of his last three starts where he allowed two earned runs or less in each. Tonight, he’ll receive the benefit of taking on a boom or bust Baltimore Orioles squad that has been susceptible against pitchers from both sides of the mound all season long. Carrasco’s walk rate has come up slightly (6.9% BB%), but other than that, his numbers this season are virtually in line with what he did last year, evidenced by his 24.9% strikeout rate, 11.7% SwStr% and 3.82 SIERA. He also has a respectable, but not great, 43.8% groundball rate and average 29.9% hard hit rate that has seemed to normalize after a drastic spike last season. His hard-hit rate in the two previous seasons was 27.5% and 24.9%, for example. As previously mentioned, Carrasco receives the privilege of drawing a matchup with an Orioles lineup that is essentially an average offense with some pop (.184 ISO) that strikes out at 22,7% clip against right-handed pitching, while drawing walks just 6.7% of the time, good for 28th in the entire league. The downside with Carrasco is that he struggles with home runs from time to time, but he may be facing this Baltimore lineup at the right time with several of their key pieces currently on the disabled list. Even if he surrenders a home run or two, Carrasco has already proven his ability to provide safety in plus matchups consistently this season, and though he has yet to flash his normal double-digit strikeout upside, this is certainly a spot where he could . With Carrasco’s recent inconsistency, he may go overlooked being priced so closely to Jose Berrios, who is pitching at home and has the better matchup with the Chicago White Sox. This is not to say Carrasco is a better overall choice than Berrios for the money but he is an interesting pivot in large-field tournaments on Wednesday’s main slate should Berrios not live up to expectations.

Carlos Carrasco projects for second most strikeouts and overall fantasy points on the night slate

The RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor has Justin Verlander (6.16) and Carlos Carrasco (6.09) essentially tied tonight with James Paxton (5.87), Taijuan Walker (5.84) and Jeff Samardzija (5.75) not far behind. The RotoGrinders Player Projections see Jose Berrios and Carlos Carrasco as the top two overall arms. Carrasco, appearing second in both spots, would appear to be the comfortable play today against a primarily RH lineup in Baltimore. He’s held batters from that side of the plate to a .247 wOBA and 21.4 K-BB% this season. Berrios has been good, but has seen his price tag shoot way up and may have some trouble supporting his 2.74 ERA with a .230 BABIP and 81.1 LOB%. He may be a bit over-priced. Justin Verlander has extreme fly ball tendencies (34.4 GB%) with just a 16.9 K% over the last month (20.7% for the year). James Paxton has struck out just 11 of his last 66 batters, walking nine, while allowing 14 ERs over 12.2 innings with dropping velocity. There may be some health questions there. Taijuan Walker just returned to strike out six over five innings of one run ball. If healthy, he had a 20.8 K-BB% in April before a 2.0 K-BB% in May preceding a trip to the DL. The concerns for him tonight are Coors and a possible pitch count (82 in his first start back). Jeff Samardzija would appear to be another strong play if the weather cooperates. Outside of Coors, he has a 3.81 ERA and 29 K%. The Braves don’t strike out much, but make up for that with a real lack of power. Jordan Montgomery may be the wild card here. His 9.4 HR/FB may not be sustainable in that park, but he faces a low power offense (Angels) and has the second highest SwStr rate (12.9%) on the slate. Sean Manaea has the highest (15.0%), but faces the Astros (126 wRC+ at home, 113 wRC+ vs LHP, 173 wRC+ over the last week).

Nelson Cruz has three HRs (44 PAs) with a 97.6 mph aEV (eight BBEs) vs Justin Verlander

Not a single BvP matchup on the slate has more than nine recorded BBEs in the Statcast era (since 2015), but among those with at least eight only one matchup stands out with an aEV above 91 mph. Nelson Cruz has destroyed Justin Verlander. In 44 PAs career, he has three HRs and three doubles, but also a 97.6 mph aEV on eight recorded BBEs since 2015. In 12 PAs, Evan Gattis has also hit Sean Manaea hard. Though he has just a single HR and no other extra-base hits, his aEV is 96.9 mph on seven BBEs.