DFS Alerts
Andrew Cashner has a 6.43 xFIP and -5.1% K-BB% versus LHB this season
Andrew Cashner comes into tonight’s game against the Washington Nationals in search of his sixth quality start in his last eight outings, which is absurd to think about given his horrific 5.90 SIERA on the season, though he has given up five earned runs in two of his last three starts. The main attributes to the high SIERA are a low 10.2% strikeout rate and high 11.4% walk rate, which combine to make a terrible formula for him to be able to maintain anywhere near his current 3.39 ERA that is mostly driven by a low BABIP and his ability to limit hard contact to the tune of a 29.3% rate. It’s obvious that Cashner’s luck is due to run out at any time now, but after looking deeper at his splits, it’s an even greater guarantee that his success against left-handed hitters will not continue. He still has the low strikeouts, high line drive (17.0% LD%) and fly ball rates (41.5% FB%), and just a .244 BABIP that has yet to fully correct itself. All of these aforementioned statistics do not equate to long-term success for any pitcher, let alone one of Cashner’s caliber. Considering his tremendous streak of luck, this is an extremely tough matchup to break down, but we need to continue trusting in the numbers which make Bryce Harper (187 wRC+, .459 wOBA, .379 ISO vs RHP) and Daniel Murphy (148 wRC+, .400 wOBA, .220 ISO vs RHP) the main Nationals hitters to focus exposure and are elite plays on Friday’s slate. Meanwhile, Brian Goodwin and Matt Wieters have not exhibited significant skills against right-handed pitching this season but present salary-saving possibilities as part of a Washington stack in tournaments. The trickier side of this matchup is the Nationals right-handed bats since Cashner owns a 58.3% groundball rate and a below-average 29.9% hard hit rate, which are skills he’s shown in the past and may actually be sustainable for him going forward. Clearly, with Cashner’s overall track record he’s prone to a blow up at any time, but with the possibility of his success against righties continuing, it seems optimal to limit exposure to the Nationals righties like Ryan Zimmerman (176 wRC+, .443 wOBA, .301 ISO vs RHP), Anthony Rendon (119 wRC+, .355 wOBA, .201 ISO vs RHP), and Trea Turner (111 wRC+, .344 wOBA, .192 ISO vs RHP) to just tournaments on tonight’s main slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Brian Goodwin, Matt Wieters, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Andrew Cashner
Several Houston bats have strong heat maps against Matt Shoemaker's target zones
Matt Shoemaker has the highest SwStr% (13.6) on the board over the last month for anyone with more than three starts and has been above 11% in each of those five starts, but allows a lot of hard contact in the air and faces the top offense in baseball. He’s allowed 13 HRs pitching in a power suppressing park and has only even pitched in one power friendly park this season with road starts in Miami, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Houston, Kansas City and Oakland. He allowed two HRs in that last start in Houston. Tonight, he faces a lineup without a top bat in George Springer, but we know he likes to throw that splitter down below the zone (whether he gets there often enough is another question), so we should be able to use PlateIQ to see if there are any strong matchups here. While the Splitter is not a common pitch with small sample sizes over the last two years for hitters, only the last four batters in the lineup have a below average Hit% against the pitch over the last two seasons. However, Josh Reddick, Carlos Correa, Brian McCann, Marwin Gonzalez, Alex Bregman and even Nori Aoki and Jake Marisnick match up well low in the zone where Shoemaker likes to ideally be with Brian McCann perhaps matching up best, excelling where Shoemaker likes to work lefties, down and away.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Josh Reddick, Carlos Correa, Marwin Gonzalez, Alex Bregman, Norichika Aoki, Jake Marisnick, Matt Shoemaker
Bryce Harper is the top bat and a strong value according to RotoGrinders Player Projections
Washington may be the lowest (5.08) of the seven offenses implied for five runs or more by Vegas tonight, but the RotoGrinders Player Projections favor Nationals’ bats above any other team tonight with Bryce Harper the top overall projected bat tonight with Ryan Zimmermann, Daniel Murphy and Trea Turner appearing in the top 10 as well. Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb both appear in the top five at home against Zach Davies as well. Considering just the top 10, Bryce Harper is considered so strong against Andrew Cashner (LHBs .364 wOBA, 37.1 Hard% since last season) that he also projects as the second best value among that group on DraftKings even at $5.3K (Mookie Betts is first). On FanDuel, Eric Thames (3.8 Pt/$/K) projects as a strong overall bat and the top value in Arizona against Randall Delgado. At $4.5K, Harper still projects for the best value among the top five overall projected bats as well.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, Eric Thames Several batters back up multiple HRs against tonight's opposing pitcher with a high aEV
Several batters have multiple HRs against the pitcher they are facing tonight with strong supporting exit velocity rates. Jose Abreu has punished Corey Kluber with three long balls and a 93.7 mph aEV on 14 BBEs, though he has also struck out in 10 of 38 PAs. Players might be inclined to side with Carlos Santana against Miguel Gonzalez, who has been punished by LHBs with a wOBA above .400 with a 40% hard hit rate over the last month, but it’s Edwin Encarnacion, who has homered three times in 38 PAs against him with a 93.7 mph aEV on 10 BBEs with just three strikeouts. Matt Kemp has also handled Matt Harvey well with three HRs in 15 PAs (two this year) and a 94.8 mph aEV on nine BBEs. Interestingly, three of the batters with two HRs against tonight’s pitcher are Mets (Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda, and Jay Bruce) with Bruce having the highest aEV (94.8 mph) and the fewest PAs (29).
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Corey Kluber, Matt Kemp, Matt Harrison, Edwin Encarnacion, Miguel Gonzalez, Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda, Jay Bruce, Julio Teheran Looking at low cost, small sample upside on a slate lacking top end arms tonight
The Friday appears to be lacking in top end arms. Corey Kluber announced his return from a month long DL sting with authority by striking out 10 of 20 Athletics, but even he may be on a slightly restricted pitch count (77 pitches eight days ago) and your only other $8.5K+ arm is Ervin Santana, who backs his 2.44 ERA with a 4.93 SIERA, .153 BABIP, 87.7 LOB% and 8.3 K-BB%. The good news is that there are several young upstarts and relievers turned starters with potential low cost upside on the mound, albeit while working with small sample sizes. Let’s start with Joe Biagini, who has excelled in six starts, posting a 15.1 K-BB%, 63.8 GB% and 25.8 Hard%. That’s a top of the rotation profile. Over his last two starts, he’s struck out 13 of 54 batters in 13 innings with a 65.8 GB% and 0.0 Hard-Soft% against the Yankees and Rangers. Whether Nelson Cruz returns tonight or not, Biagini has put himself in a position of value at a cost remaining less than $7K. Brad Peacock has a longer track record of mediocrity that’s harder to shake, but he was somewhat of a prospect once upon a time. He’s struck out 25 of 59 batters in a starting role, walking just four and completing six innings his last time out against non-cream puff offenses in Detroit, Minnesota and Texas. His 12.0 SwStr% over this span projects not as optimally, but he could lose two touchdowns off that strikeout rate and still be useful for less than $8K against the Trout-less Angels. Randall Delgado is another one time prospect, who has had an easier run ( Miami, Pittsburgh, vs Chicago AL), but a 13.0 SwStr% and -5.0 Hard-Soft%, striking out 15 of 57 major league batters is impressive at this level no matter who it’s against. He steps up in class at home against a powerful Milwaukee lineup tonight, but might even see a boost to his strikeout rate in this matchup for less than $7K.
A pair of Blue Jays (Donaldson & Smoak) are among the week's hottest hitters
Nelson Cruz has the top wRC+ in baseball (10 PA min.) over the last week (404). While it may be a bit mis-leading due to his missing several games due to injury, in his 15 PAs, he has still made hard contact on 60% of batted balls with two HRs. If he returns to the lineup tonight, it will be against Joe Biagini, who has successfully transitioned from the bullpen to generate a 15.1 K-BB% and 63.8 GB% in six starts. Odubel Herrera was unable to solve the knuckleball along with the rest of the Philadelphia lineup last night, but retains a 335 wRC+ (52.4 Hard% with two HRs) over the last week. He moves to St Louis tonight against Michael Wacha, who has been punished in recent starts, though underlying metrics look a bit better (.455 BABIP, 48.3 LOB%, 50 GB%, league average SwStr%). Ryon Healy is the newest member of the 300 wRC+ club. Over the last week, he’s generated a 304 wRC+ (38.9 Hard%) with four HRs. The under-rated slugger has a 114 wRC+ and .206 ISO against RHP in his career, while RHBs have a .344 wOBA with six HRs against Alex Cobb this year. A pair of Blue Jays (Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak) both follow with a 263 wRC+ and hard hit rate north of 40% over the last week, combining to hit nine HRs. Even in Safeco, they could cause some problems for Sam Gavilgio, who has allowed five HRs in 23 innings with just a 15% strikeout rate. As a group, four of these five hitters have an ISO above .200 since last season against the handedness of the pitcher they are facing tonight.
Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Odubel Herrera, Nelson Cruz, Ryon Healy Bradley Zimmer is a low cost OFer, who has been tearing up RHP (182 wRC+, .381 ISO)
Though few games take place in extremely positive run environments tonight (Arizona, Boston and Cleveland being the most notable exceptions with the jury still out on Atlanta), 11 offenses still have an implied run line of 4.8 runs or more on a 14 game slate. With only Boston (vs Jordan Zimmerman) and Cleveland (vs Miguel Gonzalez) projected above 5.1 runs, it should be another day with ownership well spread out. One interesting name to potentially consider for exposure to a top offense at a low price is Bradley Zimmer tonight. He has a 182 wRC+ and .381 ISO vs RHP with a 48.3 Hard% since being called up. While he’s been hitting the ball on the ground more than you’d like to see (48.6%), but his 94.6 mph aEV and 16.2% Barrels/BBE dictate that he is making some good contact as well. He was surprisingly under-owned at a low cost in Colorado earlier in the week and remains less than $4K on DK (exactly $3K on FD) in another great spot tonight. Miguel Gonzalez has allowed seven HRs over his last five starts with just a 10.5 K% (4.8 SwStr%). LHBs have a .406 wOBA and 40 Hard% against him over that span, while he’s kept them on the ground only 39.6% of the time since last year. While you may be inclined to utilize guys like Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana/Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez in your Cleveland stacks, be sure to include Zimmer as well or even consider him in one off spots.
Other tagged players: Miguel Gonzalez, Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor No serious concerns in the evening weather forecast
Aside from the low chance of a short delay in the Philadelphia/Atlanta game, where players likely aren’t rostering pitchers anyway, Kevin gives us another all clear on Thursday night. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and be sure to follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Washington bats, Lance McCullers project as most popular plays tonight
On an eight game slate with some interesting lineups, Washington bats appear as if they may be most popular, especially Bryce Harper and Trea Turner (projected to be somewhere around 20% on either site) as they can be combined with some lower cost bats in tonight’s lineup like Adam Lind and Wilmer Difo, also projected to be in more than 10% of lineups. The other side of that matchup might be where players find some contrarian options. Joe Ross has struggled with batters from both sides of the plate this year. Jonathan Schoop moves up to bat second tonight with only 5% projected ownership on either site, while Seth Smith, Mark Trumbo and Trey Mancini are not expected to be much more popular. Lance McCullers is projected to be the most popular pitcher on the slate and he might be difficult to get away from because despite struggling in his last start, 17 of 22 batters either struck out or hit a ground ball. Other high priced pitchers have had recent struggles (Lester, Pineda). David Price is not in a great spot against the Yankees tonight, but has looked good in two starts and projects to be the lowest owned of the four. Premium subscribers can see potential ownership rates, which update until first pitch, on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: David Price, Michael Pineda, Jon Lester, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Adam Lind, Wilmer Difo, Seth Smith, Mark Trumbo, Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini R.A. Dickey has a -0.7% K-BB% and a MLB-worst 5.81 SIERA this season
R.A. Dickey continues to be an extremely hittable pitcher at this stage of his career, coming off of two straight outings allowing at least five earned runs, but he seems to do just enough, consistently enough, to limit damage that the Atlanta Braves are able to keep utilizing him as an innings eater for their young and eventually up and coming squad. This year, Dickey has seen a drastic drop in his already low strikeout rate, down to 10.7% to go along with an 11.4% walk rate. As usual with his knuckleball, Dickey has managed to induce groundballs at a respectable clip (50.9%) and limit hard contact to just 28.6% of the time. With the aforementioned low strikeouts and high walks, it’s difficult to imagine Dickey’s 5.10 ERA improving with a 5.81 SIERA, and he has allowed a minimum of three runs in each of his last seven starts. When attacking Dickey with opposing batters, a problem arises with a bit of guesswork in figuring out which individual batters to utilize against him, as the nature of a knuckleball makes at bat outcomes relatively unpredictable. This makes the Philadelphia Phillies more of a stack or fade situation in tournaments tonight since there should be plenty of baserunners with a high probability of home runs but difficult to predict where said production will come from. Aaron Altherr (152 wRC+, .404 wOBA, .220 ISO vs RHP), Tommy Joseph (.213 ISO vs RHP since 2016), and scorching-hot Odubel Herrera (382 wRC+, .754 wOBA, .750 ISO vs RHP) are the top hitters we would want to target in tournament stack, while Cesar Hernandez (111 wRC+, .341 vs RHP) and Michael Saunders, who has two home runs in seven at-bats against Dickey, are logical members to round out a Phillies stack as well.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Odubel Herrera, Tommy Joseph, Michael Saunders, Cesar Hernandez, R.A. Dickey Alternate Washington lineup projects both value and top overall bats tonight via RotoGrinders Player Projections
The two offensive stars to actually grace the Washington lineup in the rescheduled affair against the Orioles (Bryce Harper and Trea Turner) are the RotoGrinders Player Projections’ top overall bats along with George Springer and Jose Altuve against Jason Hammel. While all four cost at least $5.4K on DraftKings, it may be more feasible to accumulate a few of those bats in a FanDuel lineup with each projected for at least 3.0 Pt/$/K. Several low cost Washington bats (Adam Lind, Wilmer Difo, and Stephen Drew) aid the cause with FD projections above 3.7 Pt/$/K, while a $2.1K Adam Engel projects for 2.77 Pt/$/K on DraftKings against Jake Odorizzi. Brian McCann, Evan Longoria and Aaron Altherr are all $3.6K or less on DraftKings as well with a projection above 2.3 Pt/$/K.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Trea Turner, Adam Lind, Wilmer Difo, Stephen Drew, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Adam Engel, Brian McCann, Evan Longoria, Aaron Altherr Alec Asher vs Washington may now offer low cost solutions to high cost pitching
Alec Asher has allowed six runs in 18.2 innings with 14 strikeouts, two walks and three HRs in starts not against the Houston Astros, but has had just a 7.4 SwStr% in each of his last two starts. A tough start in Washington (122 wRC+ at home, 112 wRC+ vs RHP) becomes a bit more interesting with Werth, Murphy, Zimmerman and Rendon out of the lineup as Asher costs just $4.7K on DraftKings. Using the new PlateIQ tool, we can see that this particular Washington lineup has just a 19.6 K% vs RHP this year with a .297 wOBA and .177 ISO. This is opposed to a 19.2 K%, .345 wOBA and 198 ISO vs RHP as an entire team this year. The real gain here is in wOBA with the small sample sizes of Wilmer Difo (.229), Drew (.148) and Goodwin (.264) bringing the current lineup’s total to below .300 against RHP. Asher doesn’t have to do much for less than $5K, but now this matchup offers some low cost solutions to higher priced pitchers on either side with either Asher or someone like Adam Lind (107 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP since 2016) as well as Drew (116 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP since 2016).
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Adam Lind, Wilmer Difo, Brian Goodwin, Stephen Drew Cubs have a 113 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers
While the Cubs have struggled with an 88 wRC+ against RHP, they do have the seventh best offense in baseball against fly ball pitchers (113 sOPS+). While Tyler Chatwood has a 57.4 GB% this year, he does have a double digit walk rate, the one area where the Chicago offense has continued to excel this year. The only batter in the lineup who has struggled severely against ground ball pitchers is Ben Zobrist (42 sOPS+). Anthony Rizzo has a 176 sOPS+ with four HRs against ground ballers, while Ian Happ has a 219 sOPS+ in just 22 PAs. From the right-hand side, both Javier Baez (179 sOPS+, three HRs) and Willson Contreras (147 sOPS+, three HRs) have fared well.
As reported by: Baseball Reference Team Splits Other tagged players: Tyler Chatwood, Ian Happ, Willson Contreras, Javier Baez, Ben Zobrist Christian Yelich has a 97.7 mph aEV (5 BBEs) & 3 HRs (17 PAs) vs Gerrit Cole
Six batters have more than 10 batted balls recorded by Statcast against the pitcher they are facing tonight. All of those matchups take place in the Boston/New York game with Brett Gardner (92.2 mph aEV) the only batter who has averaged above 90 mph on his exit velocity. He has one extra-base hit in 55 PAs against David Price. That’s not to say there’s no interesting information, as Hanley Ramirez and Jackie Bradley Jr. exceed a 95 mph aEV against Pineda on eight BBEs each, while Gary Sanchez has homered twice against Price (6 PAs – 97.9 mph aEV – 4 BBEs). If we’re looking at HRs, Evan Longoria has taken Derek Holland deep four times (37 PAs), but with just one recorded BBE (93.6 mph). Christian Yelich has homered three times against Gerrit Cole (17 PAs – 97.7 mph aEV – 5 BBEs), as has Salvador Perez against Lance McCullers (9 PAs – 90 mph aEV – 5 BBEs) in the most surprising dominance on the board.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Gerrit Cole, Salvador Perez, Lance McCullers, Evan Longoria, Derek Holland, David Price, Gary Sanchez, Michael Pineda, Jackie Bradley, Hanley Ramirez, Brett Gardner Lance McCullers lasted less than five innings in Texas, but with eight Ks plus nine GBs
Looking at traditional lines, all of the higher priced pitchers (Lance McCullers, Jon Lester, and Michael Pineda) have struggled lately with David Price entering Yankee Stadium with just two 2017 starts under his belt. With a lack of desirables lower on the board, players are still likely to gravitate towards these expensive arms tonight with sufficient reason to do so. Price has looked like his old self in his first two starts, Lester is facing a poor Colorado offense on the road and against LHP, and Pineda is otherwise finally generating an ERA in line with his peripherals. Lance McCullers, though not even completing five innings in his last start, may have actually dominated the Rangers if you look at the underlying numbers. He faced 22 batters striking out eight with another nine putting the ball on the ground. Of his 12 batted balls, only four were categorized as hit hard and as many were hit weakly, while he walked two as well. There’s not a pitcher in the league who wouldn’t take their chances with those rates. He improves his matchup in Kansas City tonight (84 wRC+ at home, 83 wRC+ vs RHP) and projects for eight strikeouts tonight via the Daily K Predictor with no other pitcher within two Ks. He’s also the top overall projected pitcher by the RotoGrinders Player Projections, edging out Jon Lester by a couple of points on either site.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Jon Lester, Michael Pineda, David Price