DFS Alerts
Lots of wind and YELLOW/GREEN in NYM-ATL game highlight Sunday's MLB weather forecast
All in all, it’s a pretty decent day for baseball across the Majors today with only one game checking in with any rain concerns whatsoever. That game comes to us in a matchup between the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves at Suntrust Park where Kevin Roth currently has the risk graded as YELLOW/GREEN due to some isolated storms, though a delay shouldn’t be considered likely. There are, however, a few games with strong winds and warm weather. These conditions are more of note at Wrigley Field for today’s game between the Colorado Rockies and Chicago Cubs, where winds are expected to be sustained around 20mph blowing out almost directly to center field. As Kevin Roth stated, this is essentially perfect hitting conditions once again and is the primary factor in the matchup’s implied total increasing to 11.5 runs. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
Chris Archer comes into Sunday with a career-best 22.4% K-B% and 13.2% SwStr%
Chris Archer is set to take the mound against the Oakland Athletics this afternoon coming off of a stellar performance against the Chicago White Sox his last time out, striking out 11 batters in seven innings pitched. After a shaky start to the year in the strikeout department, Archer has really turned it around of late, eclipsing double-digit strikeouts in five of his last seven starts, flashing the elite upside that we have all come to know and love. The current season advanced statistics for Archer have rebounded nicely following his middling start to the 2017 campaign, evidenced by a 3.30 SIERA, 30.0% strikeout rate, and a 7.7% walk rate, that is in line with his career numbers. One potential trouble spot is the small dip in his groundball rate (42.3% GB%) from a career 46.3% rate that is correlated with a career-high 39.2% hard hit rate, though a 13-start sample size is still arguably too small to place that much stock in the hard contact issues. Given the matchup with an Athletics squad that ranks 18th in wOBA and has a 24.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, it’s easy to see why Archer possesses the highest ceiling among starting pitchers on Sunday’s main slate and possibly even the highest floor, despite Oakland currently owning the third-best ISO in the entire league against righties. Add that to the fact that Archer has always been a more dominant pitcher at home throughout his career, which has held true once again, with a 36.4% strikeout rate at Tropicana Field opposed to a 23.1% strikeout rate on the road, and he becomes a difficult fade in any format, cash games and tournaments alike.
As reported by: FanGraphs Chad Green will start for the Yankees Sunday, expected to be on a 50-pitch limit
Domingo German was called up from AAA late last night and was originally expected to make his major league debut in today’s game against the Baltimore Orioles. However, New York Yankees manager Joe Girardi has opted to give the start to Chad Green, who has made seven appearances out of the bullpen this season but will be making his first start of the year this afternoon. Green’s season-high in pitches is only 48 so he is expected to be limited to somewhere around 50 pitches Sunday. This means that Green will likely only be able to go a maximum of three or four innings in this outing, making it difficult for him to become a viable starting pitching option on this slate. As for the aforementioned German, it is still likely for him to make his first appearance in this contest, as Girardi stated that he may choose to piggyback him off of Green once he is pulled from the game.
As reported by: Bryan Hoch Other tagged players: Domingo German ICYMI: No rain concerns in Saturday's MLB weather forecast
All in all, it’s a great night for baseball across the Majors this evening with zero games checking in with any rain concerns whatsoever. Unlike the early slate, there isn’t any slate altering wind at Wrigley Field, but there is a decent breeze blowing out to right center field in Cleveland if looking for any additional reasons to pick on David Holmberg with Indians bats. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page David Holmberg owns a career 0.4% K-BB% versus RHB
David Holmberg is set to make his third start of the year in today’s road matchup against the Cleveland Indians following two mediocre outings, failing to pitch past the fourth in each. Since 2013, Holmberg has pitched just 80 career innings at the Major League level and has not seen great success, evidenced by his 5.68 SIERA, 11.6% strikeout rate, and 11.6% walk rate. He typically hasn’t struggled that much with free passes in the Minors, but the low strikeout rate appears more real than not, as he has never been a strikeout pitcher at baseball’s lower levels. Holmberg has also lacked the ability to control batted balls in any way, making him a low strikeout pitcher with questionable control that is unable to influence groundballs or fly balls one way or another. As a left-handed pitcher, he also draws the unenvious task of facing an Indians lineup that will roll out seven right-handed hitters Saturday night. Edwin Encarnacion has really lacked power against left-handed pitching this season, evidenced by a minuscule 0.92 ISO, but if relying on numbers since last season, he joins Francisco Lindor (151 wRC+, .398 wOBA, .265 ISO vs LHP) as top Cleveland bats to target in all formats. Other than that, no other individual Indians hitters particularly stand out against southpaws, making this more of a stack or fade situation in tournaments, as Holmberg is bad enough that there is a significant chance the entire lineup can go off in this matchup.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, David Holmberg Wil Myers scratched from lineup Saturday; Hunter Renfroe replaces and will bat fourth
Myers has officially been scratched from the San Diego Padres lineup for today’s game against the Kansas City Royals due to an illness. He will be replaced by Hunter Renfroe, who will take over in the outfield and bat fourth, moving Jose Pirela to first base. This lineup change will also slide Yangervis Solarte up to the three-hole from his previous position of cleanup.
Clarifying MIN lineup: Dozier, Grossman, Sano, Kepler, Vargas, Rosario, Gimenez, Adrianza, Berrios
The initial lineup tweeted out by a San Francisco Giants beat writer was incorrect and the above-posted lineup is the actual confirmed Minnesota Twins lineup for Saturday’s early slate of games. The primary differences are that Kennys Vargas will start for Joe Mauer, while Eddie Rosario, Chris Gimenez, and Ehire Adrianza have been confirmed in the correct lineup where they were initially left out of the incorrect Twins lineup.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Starting Lineups Page Carlos Martinez has an outstanding 25.5% K-BB% versus RHB this season
Carlos Martinez is coming off of a less than stellar start his last time out, allowing four earned runs in 6.1 innings pitched, though he still did manage eight punchouts. This afternoon he’ll take on a hapless Philadelphia Phillies lineup that will roll out six right-handed batters, which is always a positive sign for Martinez, as he has some serious control (13.1% BB%) and hard contact (38.4%) issues against left-handed batters. It also doesn’t hurt that the Phillies don’t really have any lefties, outside of maybe Odubel Herrera, that would give us cause for concern in rostering Martinez today. He has also been as dominant as ever against right-handed batters this season, evidenced by a 30.4% strikeout rate, 5.0% walk rate, and a below-average 28.2% hard hit rate to go along with solid groundball skills to hitters from both sides of the plate. Piling on to the argument of playing Martinez is the fact that Phillies own a minuscule .305 wOBA and 23.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, which just further elevates Martinez’s floor and ceiling in this matchup. Clearly, the aforementioned statistics vault Martinez into the status of the top starting pitching option on Saturday’s early slate, and even possibly, someone we would want to go all-in on in tournaments given his high floor and upside combination. He can also be paired rather easily with the top offenses on this slate considering the plethora of cost-saving hitting options in the game at Wrigley Field between the Colorado Rockies and Chicago Cubs
As reported by: FanGraphs Yadier Molina scratched from Cardinals lineup Saturday; Eric Fryer replaces and will bat eighth
Shortly after appearing in the St. Louis Cardinals’ original lineup for today’s game against the Philadelphia Phillies, the team has officially announced that Yadier Molina has been scratched from the lineup due to a back injury that has now forced him to miss two consecutive games. He’ll be replaced at catcher by Eric Fryer, who will bat eighth. This means that Aledmys Diaz, Tommy Pham, and Kolten Wong all slide up one spot in the order and will now hit fifth, sixth, and seventh respectively.
Other tagged players: Eric Fryer No rain concerns in Saturday's early MLB weather forecast, but plenty of wind
All in all, it’s a great day for baseball across the Majors this afternoon with zero games checking in with any rain concerns whatsoever. There is, however, a couple games with strong winds and warm weather. These conditions are more of note at Wrigley Field for today’s game between the Colorado Rockies and Chicago Cubs, where winds are expected to be sustained well over 20mph blowing out almost directly to center field. As Kevin Roth stated, this is essentially perfect hitting conditions and is the primary factor in the matchup’s implied total increasing to 12.5 runs. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Yadier Molina scratched Friday
Yadier Molina scratched Friday. No word on replacement yet.
As reported by: Jennifer Langosch
Ben Revere scratched Friday; Cameron Maybin has been activated from the DL and will now lead off
Maybin will now hit out of the leadoff spot after being activated from the DL. Andrelton Simmons now shifts from the leadoff spot down to the six hole.
As reported by: Tim Mead Other tagged players: Cameron Maybin
Yankees up 0.47 implied runs since open, one of the most positive moves of the day
With a little more than an hour before first pitch, a look at today’s line movement shows the Yankees as one of the top climbers today, up 0.48 runs since open and over a quarter of a run over the last four hours against Dylan Bundy. Cleveland is up 0.47 runs, including a 0.16 run increase in the last hour. Also up one-tenth of a run to 4.91 over the last hour are the Mets, who actually reached that point around midnight last night, before declining a bit in the early morning and working their way back up. One of the more interesting droppers has been Houston, decreasing 0.13 runs in the hour after a lineup without Springer was announced. The biggest drop since open belongs to Atlanta, who started at 4.81 runs and has dropped 0.22 runs since then. Players can find not only current Vegas lines, but movement throughout the day on the RotoGrinders Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Corey Kluber, Bryce Harper and a pair of Catchers may be tonight's most popular plays
Tonight’s ownership projections don’t currently see a batter above 16% with Catchers being the top guy on either site (Gary Sanchez FD, Brian McCann DK) along with Bryce Harper in a plush matchup with Andrew Cashner. The more interesting projections are on the mound, where Corey Kluber could be dealing with both a pitch count (77 pitches in his first start eight days ago after a month on the DL) and a sketchy weather report (although concern is more about a delay than a PPD). He’s still, however, expected to be the overwhelming favorite on either site, potentially appearing in up to 40% of rosters on DraftKings. No other pitcher is currently projected to be in more than 10% of lineups. It’s interesting that Joe Biagini (15.1 K-BB%, 63.8 GB% and 25.8 Hard% through six starts) is expected to be in less than 5% of lineups on either site. Premium subscribers find constantly updating ownership projections for all players on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Brian McCann, Gary Sanchez Potential for a late start in Cleveland in tonight's evening forecast
Kevin’s late forecast focuses on just one game tonight and of course it’s the only game with a top end pitcher going. Not only may Corey Kluber have to deal with a pitch count (he threw 77 in his first start after a month on the DL), but Chicago (AL) Cleveland is the only game where Kevin sees the potential for a delay. The good news is that he doesn't see a postponement risk and the delay is more likely to be prior to start. These circumstances would be ideal as Kluber is a difficult pitcher to entirely fade tonight. Kevin also mentions some wind conditions around the majors tonight. Read the full report on the Weather page and follow Kevin on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for further updates.