DFS Alerts
Derek Holland allowing a .212 ISO to RHB over the last two seasons
Holland has posted some very poor stats against right-handers since 2016 (610 batters faced), including a 37.6% Hard% (worst on slate), 34.7% GB% (second-worst), 44.0% FB% (second-worst among pitchers with more than 14 TBF), 5.38 xFiP (worst among pitchers with more than 14 TBF), and a .352 wOBA (second-worst). The Rays will roll with six RHB tonight. One of the biggest concerns when going with this team is their K%. PlateIQ shows their current projected lineup has a 27.7% K% agaisnt LHP over the last two years, but Holland has a low 15.4% K% against RHB, which works in their favor. Holland is a sinker ball pitcher, tossing it 47.28% of the time and his second-favorite pitch is the slider (18.35%). Although none of the Rays’ right-handers excel against sinkers – they’re mostly average or a little below (Bourjos is the exception at 3.28% above average) – five guys are above average when it comes to sliders. Across the league, hitters accumulate 13.67% of their hits against sliders, but Souza (20.33%), Robertson (21.74%), Norris (16.67%) Bourjos (16.79%), and Longoria (13.96%) beat that rate. All of these guys have strong Hard% of at least 33.0% against LHP with Norris and Robertson both topping 44.0%. Plus, those two and Longoria have fly ball rates over 41.0%. Their left-handers aren’t as appealing considering Holland’s 19.3% Hard%, 52.3% GB%, .239 wOBA, .035 ISO, and 3.32 xFIP against RHB over the past two seasons (122 total batters faced). The five righties mentioned above are appealing options today and Vegas gives the team the fifth-highest projected run total on the main slate (4.79).
Other tagged players: Steven Souza, Derek Norris, Daniel Robertson, Derek Holland, Peter Bourjos
Diagnosing Joe Ross's RHB issues and matchup against Baltimore using PlateIQ
Joe Ross has a 15.6 K-BB% that’s actually a bit above his 14.9% career rate this season. He’s a two pitch pitcher (sinker, slider) that generally keeps RHBs grounded (53.9 GB%, 24.2 Hard% career prior to 2017) while being punished by LHBs (.366 wOBA, 37.4 GB%, 36.6 Hard% career). However, this year, RHBs are similarly torching him for a .386 wOBA with just a 33.3 GB% and 38.2 Hard%. He’s throwing the same two pitches 90% of the time, though with a bit of a smaller velocity gap and perhaps less vertical movement on the slider, but let’s use the new PlateIQ matchup to explore this matchup against the Orioles further. Interestingly, it shows us that neither Seth Smith nor Chris Davis have had much success against sinker/slider combos this year, but that’s considering pitchers of either arm side and both have been about league average against those pitches in recent years. When we look at Ross’s pitch map, he usually uses both sides of the plate effectively to keep RHBs uncomfortable, but this season seems to be burying everything inside and middle (13%). Looking at the Baltimore lineup, we find that the middle of their order (Adam Jones, Manny Machado – may not play tonight, and Mark Trumbo) have had success against that combination of pitches in those areas this season, though Jonathan Schoop likes pitches a bit more outside. Switching to the last two seasons, shows Schoop a bit more proficient against those pitches and location along with Jones and Trumbo, while Machado drops back a bit towards league average. What does that mean? Perhaps that we shouldn’t look to Ross to regain his prior form in this matchup, less some adjustment we’re not aware of and it may be that a Baltimore offense projected for just 4.3 runs is worth your investment.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Adam Jones, Seth Smith, Chris Davis, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Jonathan Schoop
Odubel Herrera has a 382 wRC+ and 61.1 Hard% over the last week.
Odubel Herrera has a 382 wRC+ (61.1 Hard%, two HRs) over the last week. Only one other batter, Nelson Cruz (372 wRC+, 54.6 Hard%, two HRs) is within 100 points (10 PA min.) and he’s been in and out of the lineup this week. While knuckleballers can throw anyone off, LHBs have a .347 wOBA against R.A. Dickey since last season, who is now sporting a sad 6.2 SwStr%. Herrera does have a HR against Dickey in six PAs with a 99.7 mph aEV on two batted balls, suggesting he may be able to handle the pitch. Brian McCann, Jonathan Schoop and Mike Zunino all have a wRC+ in the 275-280 range with hard contact 36 to 42% of the time over the last week as well. The two catchers are interesting because although neither is in a power friendly park, they are both facing pitchers who have allowed batters from their side a wOBA in excess of .330 since last season. Schoop has a more interesting matchup against Joe Ross, who has a reputation for keeping RHBs grounded, but that has completely gone up in smoke in this season (33.3 GB%, 38.2 Hard% vs RHBs).
Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Brian McCann, Mike Zunino, Jonathan Schoop Mariners have an implied run line of 4.66 runs, LHBs have a .388 wOBA vs Gibson since 2016
Four offenses have an implied run line of 4.9 runs or higher. The Astros are at the top of the class (5.25) with the Nationals second (5.18) against what might be a sneakily improved version of Alec Asher with a 9.5 SwStr% this season and just six runs in 18.2 innings with 14 strikeouts in three starts that are not against the Astros. The Braves (4.92) are getting a ton of respect without their top hitter against rookie Ben Lively. It must be the park. The Cubs (4.91) have not been good against RHP (88 wRC+) and Tyler Chatwood keeps the ball on the ground with a decent track record away from Coors. The Mariners, however, sit in the middle of the board against Kyle Gibson with a projection of 4.66 runs. Sure, Safeco is a pitcher’s park, but LHBs have a .388 wOBA against Gibson since last year with batters from both sides making hard contact on about one-third of batted balls. Robinson Cano (153 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP since 2016) and Kyle Seager (138 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP since 2016) appear top options at their positions tonight. Both have a hard hit rate above 45% over the last week. Ben Gamel (153 wRC+ vs RHP this season) appears to be your affordable OF bat atop the lineup, while Nelson Cruz (144 wRC+, .242 ISO vs RHP since 2015) could complete a stack if active. Considering circumstances, Mariner bats appear more daily fantasy friendly than many more favorably projected offenses tonight.
Other tagged players: Kyle Seager, Ben Gamel, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Gibson Colorado has lowest projected run total on tonight's slate (3.59)
PlateIQ shows their projected lineup has an average K% of 21.1% over the past two seasons. That sets up a decent strikeout spot for opposing pitcher, Jon Lester, who posted a 24.5% K% and 10.5% SwStr% during the same time span – third and fifth on the main slate, respectively. Against RHB, that number drops a bit to 23.8% but it’s very close to today’s leader, Lance McCullers, at 26.6% in split. That’s important to note as Lester is expected to face six right-handers tonight. Digging deeper, we can see that Lester tosses cutters 22.74% of the time, well above the league average (4.91%) and none of Colorado’s batters hit the pitch particularly well. The average hitter across the MLB accumulates 5.1% of his hits off cutters and no one on the Rockies has a rate higher than 5.93% (Desmond) over the past two years. Notably, Charlie Blackmon struggles against cutters; they account for just 2.24% of his hits. While Blackmon hits fastballs a little above average (56.28% of his hits against a 52.11% average) and Lester throws them 47.82% of the time, he’s below average when it comes to curveballs (13.4% of Lester’s pitches) and sinkers (10.35% of Lester’s pitches). This type of trend holds for most of the lineup, no one really stands out against Lester’s pitching choices. Arenado picks up 11.71% of his hits off curveballs, which is 3.26% above average and that represents the most any batter is above the normal rate against Lester’s main three pitches outside of fastballs. This could help curtail Colorado’s high ISO (.198) and wOBA (.354) against LHP since 2016. It’s also good to know that Lester has a low .291 wOBA, 23.8% Hard% and a .155 ISO against righties. Plus, his 3.7 SIERA since 2016 is the fourth-lowest among tonight’s starters. With both PlateIQ and Vegas on Lester’s side, he’s looking like a solid target. He currently projects as our SP2 on the main slate and he offers a better points-per-dollar projection on DK than our SP1, McCullers.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond Patrick Corbin has allowed a 37.7% Hard% over the last two seasons
The Diamondbacks may have the highest projected run total on the early slate (5.07) but looking toward the other side could be a solid GPP play. Corbin’s hard contact rate is the highest on the early slate overall and when broken down by handedness. Most notably, he has a 38.1% Hard% against RHB since 2016 – if the projected lineup holds, the Padres will deploy seven righty bats this afternoon. Corbin doesn’t have a high K% (18.4%, 9.6% SwStr) and it drops even further against right-handers (15.7%). Despite having a solid 51.6% GB% in split, he’s allowed a .371 wOBA and .203 ISO; his BABIP may be high at .332, but when he’s giving up that much hard contact, the elevated rate isn’t all bad luck. This season, those figures have risen to a .389 wOBA and .227 ISO while his GB% has dropped a touch to 48.1% and his Hard% is 37.9%. The question now is whether the Padres have enough firepower to take advantage of Corbin’s soft spots. Will Myers (43.3% Hard%, 34.3% FB%, .193 ISO, .335 wOBA vs LHP since 2016), Austin Hedges (34.1% Hard%, 50.0% FB%, .123 ISO, .253 wOBA), and Hunter Renfroe (33.3% Hard%, 49.0% FB%, .333 ISO, .440 wOBA) appear to be the best targets to do so. They’ll also have the benefit of playing at Chase Field, which has topped ESPN’s park factors this season as the best place for hitters – it tops their rankings in runs, dingers, and hits. Vegas has their implied total at 4.43, which is fifth on DraftKings’ four-game slate; while it’s definitely risky as the Padres don’t have a tremendous lineup, they may be in a better spot than it appears and their line should suppress their ownership in GPPs. Be sure to check the official lineup when it’s available.
Other tagged players: Wil Myers, Austin Hedges, Patrick Corbin Thursday's MLB forecast clear; Marlins-Pirates (YELLOW/GREEN) only game to monitor
It’s a nice, dry day around the country – as of now, it doesn’t look like there will be any real weather concerns for today’s games. In Pittsburgh, Kevin Roth is anticipating some spotty showers but he’s given it a fantasy-friendly rating of YELLOW/GREEN. In Chicago, rain will come after the matchup featuring the Rockies and Cubs (GREEN). There won’t be too much wind around the league and most games will be in the 70s at first pitch. The Astros-Royals tilt will be the warmest on the slate with temperatures expected to be 82 degrees when they get going while the Red Sox-Yankees meeting will be the coldest at 67. Be sure to check out our weather page for complete details.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Dallas Keuchel scratched from start Wednesday night; Dayan Diaz will start
Keuchel has officially been scratched from his start in tonight’s game against the Kansas City Royals due to an illness. In his place, Dayan Diaz will draw his first career start, which suddenly puts the Royals bats firmly into play considering they are priced across the industry as if they are facing an elite pitcher. A Royals stack should be extremely low-owned in tournaments given the last-minute nature of the news of Keuchel’s illness.
As reported by: Julia Morales Other tagged players: Dayan Diaz
Look towards west coast for tonight's cheapest leadoff bats.
Players looking for their cheap bats at the top of the lineup tonight have just two options, both in the same game. On one side, Franchy Cordero is facing Zack Greinke. On the other side, Daniel Descalso has it a little bit better against Luis Perdomo, who has struggled against LHBs (.365 wOBA, 38.5 Hard% career), though he still keeps them on the ground 52% of the time. Chris Young ($3.2K DK, $2.2K FD) bats second against C.C. Sabathia. Jesus Aguilar bats third against a low strikeout lefty in Ty Blach for just $2.2K on FanDuel, though First Base is a difficult position to punt. If players aren’t as picky about premium lineup placement, we can expand to include last night’s superstar Scooter Gennett ($2.2K on FD) against a pitcher who struggles both on the road and vs LHBs (Lance Lynn). On the opposite side of that game, Jose Martinez costs just $2.1K on FD, $3.1K on DK against Bronson Arroyo. Consider Guillermo Heredia as well if he leads off against the left-handed Adalberto Mejia tonight.
Other tagged players: Franchy Cordero, Jesus Aguilar, Chris Young, Scooter Gennett, Guillermo Heredia An inexpensive John Lackey could be the most popular pitcher on DraftKings
For the second night in a row, several offenses have an implied run line above 4.8 tonight, spreading ownership expectations out fairly well on the hitting side with no player projected to be in more than 18% of lineups. Batting second for an offense with one of the highest implied run lines, Alex Avila is still too cheap and may be one of tonight’s most popular bats. On the pitching side, Dallas Keuchel and Zack Greinke are expected to be in more lineups than any other pitcher on FanDuel, while John Lackey appears too cheap on DraftKings ($7.4K) and could find himself in more than 30% of lineups as players may be able to pair him with a more expensive arm. Luis Perdomo has held 66.5% of batters faced this season to either a strikeout or ground out (just three points less than Keuchel) and projects for less than 5% ownership on DraftKings for $5.9K.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Dallas Keuchel, Zack Greinke, Luis Perdomo, Alex Avila No major weather concerns on the Wednesday night slate
Kevin gives us the all clear on Wednesday without any significantly impactful winds expected tonight either. Players can read the forecast on our Weather page and make sure to follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page George Springer, Jose Altuve projected as top bats tonight
The Houston Astros have a 128 wRC+ on the road (1st), 113 wRC+ vs LHP (2nd), 163 wRC+ over the last week (2nd) and 127 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers (1st). It’s no surprise that the RotoGrinders Player Projections point towards George Springer and Jose Altuve as the top overall hitters against in Kansas City tonight, even though the Astros are only eighth with a 4.78 implied run line tonight. Considering how expensive these players are, players may need to think twice about the cost of rostering them, but on the other hand, the Vegas line may lower their ownership rates. Players looking for more value, might consider Colby Rasmus against Mike Pelfrey on DraftKings (projected for 2.74 Pt/$/K) or Chris Young (4.16 Pt/$/K), who costs just $200 above the minimum on FanDuel against C.C. Sabathia. For those paying up for their SP1 on DraftKings, Buck Farmer projects for an unprecedented 4.04 Pt/$/K at minimum cost and could fill out the second spot on your roster.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Colby Rasmus, Chris Young, Buck Farmer Dallas Keuchel checks-in as the highest priced SP on the slate, and deservedly so
Outside of one or two subpar outings, Dallas Keuchel has looked like his former Cy Young self, sporting a sparkling 1.67 ERA and a 2.97 SIERA, which is tied for fifth-best in the Majors and ahead of Zack Greinke, who will likely be another popular pitching option on Wednesday’s slate. Even though there is more than a full run difference between Keuchel’s ERA and SIERA (typically a cause for concern), it’s important to note that hard-hit numbers are not factored into SIERA, which explains why his ERA can be expected to remain substantially lower if he is able to maintain anywhere near a 20.1% hard hit rate through the remainder of the season. Keuchel’s 14.3% hard hit rate to left-handed batters and 21.1% hard hit rate versus righties are remarkably elite numbers, so it’s not all that surprising that he is outperforming his aforementioned SIERA by more than run. Tonight, Keuchel is set to face off with with a Kansas City Royals squad that strike out 18.7% of the time and lack any significant power against left-handed pitching, with an abysmal .125 ISO. Clearly, the upside and safety are present for Keuchel in this matchup on the road at Kauffman Stadium, a notoriously good park for pitchers, and even if Keuchel allows a home run or two, which seems like more of an issue than it really is given his high 17.1% HR/FB rate, he should still be able to post a strong outing. Additionally, his fantastic 67.4% groundball rate enables him to limit potential damage and pitch deeper into games, effectively raising his floor and ceiling, and puts him firmly in line as the top starting pitching option on tonight’s slate, above pitchers like Greinke and even Yu Darvish. Despite potentially significant ownership, Keuchel should be the primary target for our lineups in both cash games and tournaments alike across the industry this evening.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Projections Fowler sits against Arroyo as Cardinals will try for a third time against a fly ball pitcher in Cincinnati
The Cardinals are one of six offenses with an implied run line of 4.9 or more tonight, while the Reds are in the middle of the pack with 4.5 implied runs tonight against Lance Lynn, but this matchup may deserve a closer look. Bronson Arroyo has already allowed 19 HRs, but the Cardinals have been shut down by two below average extreme fly ball pitchers each of the last two nights in Cincinnati. It will be interesting to see whether the public sides with them again or fears getting burned again. Whatever ownership trends suggest later, it might be wise to do the opposite. The absence of Dexter Fowler may dampen the overall outlook slightly and Matt Carpenter may not be someone players can entirely fade tonight at a very reasonable cost (51% fly ball rate and .203 ISO vs RHP this year), but he has a -46 wRC+ and 29.4 Hard% over the last week. On the other side, Lance Lynn has a 4.23 SIERA well above his 2.97 ERA due to a .204 BABIP and 83.3 LOB%. He’s always struggled both on the road (11.4 HR/FB career almost exaclty doubles his home rate) and against LHBs (.343 wOBA career). He absolutely can not be expected to contain Scooter Gennett, who hit four HRs last night, but Scott Schebler (108 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP since last season) returns to the lineup also tonight. Maybe Joey Votto (162 wRC+, 250 ISO vs RHP since last season) is the First Baseman players should want in this matchup tonight and Cincinnati LHBs might be the more interesting stack.
Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Scott Schebler, Scooter Gennett, Bronson Arroyo, Lance Lynn Brian McCann hits changeups well and gets the start over Gattis against the lefty Vargas
Evan Gattis is usually in the lineup for Brian McCann against LHPs, but a look at the new PlateIQ tool might be able to tell us why McCann is batting sixth tonight with Gattis on the bench against Jason Vargas. McCann does not have a career PA against Vargas, but there are reasons to believe he may be successful. Vargas prefers to keep the ball down and in against LHBs, which is right where PlateIQ tells us the Catcher likes it. In addtion, Vargas favors changeups 28.4% of the time against even LHBs, while McCann has a 21.88 Hit% against the pitch, double the league average. More traditional advanced stats back this information up as well as LHBs have a .405 wOBA against Vargas since last season and McCann has a 104 wRC+ and .184 ISO against LHP over that span as well.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Jason Vargas