DFS Alerts
Jordan Montgomery has the highest SwStr rate (13.4%) of any starting pitcher today
Jordan Montgomery has the slate’s top strikeout projection on the Daily K Predictor (5.57). His 22.5 K% is third highest tonight, but his 13.4 SwStr% is higher than any starting pitcher for the entire day. His fly ball tendencies (37.8 GB%) along with a 23.5 Hard% appear to make him a strong if for this Kansas City park as well. While he does have a double digit walk rate, but eight of his 15 walks came in back-to-back starts before settling back down to one in his last start. The Royals have just a 79 sOPS+ (Baseball-Reference) against fly ball pitchers in addition to their 9.1 HR/FB at home and 5.7 HR/FB vs LHP. While not without flaws, the profile probably plays on a weak five game slate for $7K to $8K. He’s only faced 17 LHBs in his rookie season, but RHBs have a .308 wOBA against him (23.9 Hard%). Lorenzo Cain (149 wRC+, .214 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is probably your top Kansas City bat. Whit Merrifield (137 wRC+, 46.2 Hard% vs LHP) could be an interesting salary saver on FanDuel ($2.5K) if necessary, although players would probably a better lineup spot. If thinking about Sal Perez, he has just a 62 wRC+ against LHP since 2015.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Lorenzo Cain, Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez
Marcus Stroman is the top projected pitcher on the night slate against Freeman-less Braves
Marcus Stroman was probably the top pitcher on the slate under normal circumstances, but may generate his own tier facing an Atlanta lineup without Freddie Freeman. It was already a fine run prevention spot (89 wRC+ at home, 94 wRC+ vs RHP) made much better. The Braves don’t strike out a lot (20% exactly vs RHP), but there are no elite strikeout arms on this slate. Stroman has a 19.0 K% that’s been inconsistent with totals of ten, two, one and nine over his last four starts. The one thing he does consistently do is keep the ball on the ground (58.7%). That’s not usually a skill you want to pay $11.3K for, but there’s really nobody else you’re paying up for. Atlanta, somehow, has a higher implied run line (3.8) than two other teams tonight, but Stroman is the top projected pitcher on the slate (RotoGrinders Player Projections) and second on the Daily K Predictor (5.57). Considering the high ground ball rate (59.8% against batters from both sides since 2015) and lack of quality pitchers in almost every other spot on the slate, this is probably the lineup players should least consider for offensive needs.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Mariners look to capitalize on Dylan Covey’s rocky start
The rookie pitcher has allowed the highest Hard% (37.5%) and Hd-St% (18.0%) on the main slate to go along with an atrocious 7.98 ERA and 5.16 SIERA, which are also the worst among tonight’s starters. He also has a low 14.4% K% and 6.6% SwStr%. On top of all of that, he’s allowing 2.76 HR/9 and a 23.7% HR/FB rate. It’s safe to say Covey hasn’t been able to successfully adjust to the major league level. Things won’t get much easier tonight as he faces a Mariners team that’s posted the eight-best wOBA (.332) and fifth-best wRC+ (114) against RHP this season. Lefty Kyle Seager (.218 ISO, .376 wOBA, 41.0% Hard%) immediately jumps out as a top option, as does LHH Ben Gamel (.146 ISO, .339 wOBA, 34.9% Hard%). Both of these guys have a 42.9% FB%, which is important for this matchup as Covey has limited LHH to 30.6% FB% so far. He was a strong ground ball pitcher coming up through the minors, posting a GB% of 57.5% in all six stops, but five of them were a form of A ball and he ended up skipping AAA. In the majors, he’s demonstrated some reverse splits so far, allowing right-handed batters to produce a 41.8% fly ball rate along with a 30.4% HR/FB rate, 42.9% Hard%, and a .542 wOBA. Enter Nelson Cruz, who’s fared well against RHP this season with a .269 ISO, .405 wOBA, and 165 wRC+. He’s also posted a 44.1% FB%, 19.5% HR/FB, and 35.5% Hard%. Also of interest is Taylor Motter. Although he’s only had 94 plate appearances against RHP this year, he’s been mashing them for a .274 ISO, 43.1% FB%, 20.0% HR/FB, and 44.8% Hard%. Seattle currently has the highest projected run total on the main slate (4.77) and they’re certainly an interesting stack for this five-gamer tonight.
Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Taylor Motter, Dylan Covey
Hyun-Jin Ryu leads main slate starters with a 23.6% K% this season
The Dodgers’ pitcher is actually tied with Edinson Volquez in K%, but his SwStr% is 2.2% higher (11.5%) and it’s the third-highest on the five-game slate. Plus, the Dodgers are the biggest favorites (-186) and his opponent, Miami, has the lowest projected run total on the board (3.33). The Marlins haven’t struck out a ton this season (20.0%, 11th), but they’ve been slightly worse against lefties (21.0%, 15th), which works in Ryu’s favor. Part of his issue this season has been control – his walk rate is up to 10.0% from a career average of 6.0% while his F-Strike% is a little below average at 58.6%. Last game he gave up six walks through four innings and in the one prior, he gave up three walks and was limited to 5.1 innings, although he also managed nine strikeouts. Fortunately, the Marlins have the second-lowest BB% in baseball (7.1%). If he manages to limit his BB% tonight, he should be able to reach the six-inning mark, which he’s only done twice this season. Outside of those issues, Ryu has been effective, limiting contact to 73.2%, Hard% to 30.0%, and his FB% is just 28.4%. Although he gave up five earned runs last time out, Vegas clearly isn’t too concerned, and he still has a SIERA of 4.07 this season, which is fourth-best among tonight’s starters. On a slate lacking pitching options, Ryu is definitely a top target; he currently projects as our SP2 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Yankees-Royals game considered orange/yellow tonight
Kevin Roth is anticipating some storms tonight in Kansas City that may get worse as the night progresses. As of now, he’s expecting a 38% chance of precipitation at first pitch and that increases to 83% by 11 pm. We’ll get a clearer picture as we near lock, so be sure to check back for Roth’s evening update. Everything is pretty clear elsewhere; the Phillies-Rangers game is considered yellow as they also have some storms approaching, but he’s expecting it to stay clear until after the game. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Ervin Santana and his 98.4% LOB% aim to continue balancing act in matchup with Colorado Rockies
Ervin Santana continues to pitch well outside of one subpar outing against the Boston Red Sox in which he allowed six earned runs, despite a .128 BABIP that indicates he is in line for some serious negative regression to his 1.50 ERA. This is further evidenced by a 4.61 SIERA and 10.4% walk rate. However, it is tough to argue against Santana, who has allowed one earned run or less in seven of his eight starts, as a viable pitching option on a slate such as this that is lacking quality starting pitching targets. While a lot of his success is BABIP driven, there is some skill involved in Santana’s hot start, as he has held opposing batters to just a 25.9% hard hit rate that can reasonably be expected from him given his career numbers. Although, both his strikeouts and walks are on the rise this season, Santana remains far from a strikeout pitcher with just a 20.3% strikeout rate. Normally, on basically any other slate, we would want to stay away from Santana and his inevitable BABIP and LOB% regression, but there’s just no one else that stands out as a usable starting pitcher on the Early slate. He also benefits from a matchup with a Colorado Rockies squad that has been a below-average offense on the road and against right-handed pitching this season, making Santana the de facto top pitching option the slate and tough to fade on two-pitcher sites like DraftKings where his salary remains low.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Nationals bats could go overlooked with other high implied totals on the Early slate
Tyler Glasnow was a highly-touted prospect coming up in the Minors but he continues to struggle at the Major League level and is coming off one of his worst starts of the season, allowing seven earned runs in just 2.1 innings pitched against the Arizona Diamondbacks his last time out. Glasnow possesses strikeout ability but cannot find his control, evidenced by a 13.8% walk rate through his first seven starts. This afternoon Glasnow will toe the rubber against a Washington Nationals squad that is ranked 2nd in both ISO and wOBA versus right-handed pitching and can obviously get to any pitcher, let alone one with significant control problems like Glasnow. This is not a particularly great matchup for any of the individual Nationals hitters considering Glasnow’s ability to limit hard contact (22.4% HH%) and notch the occasional strikeout or two (20.4% K%) but it is a great spot to stack this loaded Washington lineup. However, if looking to pick out individual batters, the minuscule career sample size of Glasnow indicates that we should pick on him with right-handed batters, as he does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground (42.7% GB%) and limiting hard contact to lefties (18.1% HH%). With that said, Bryce Harper (208 wRC+, .498 wOBA, .406 ISO vs RHP) and Daniel Murphy (137 wRC+, .386 wOBA, .208 ISO vs RHP) are still the top overall options despite hitting from the left side, while Trea Turner (.208 ISO vs RHP) and Anthony Rendon are excellent targets to round out a stack in tournaments. If needing to save some salary, Brian Goodwin will draw a start in the outfield in place of Jayson Werth and bat second, making him a logical stacking candidate, along with Adam Lind (155 wRC+, .414 wOBA, .293 ISO vs RHP), who stars in place of Ryan Zimmerman Thursday afternoon.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Brian Goodwin, Adam Lind, Tyler Glasnow Jordan Zimmermann holds a 24.8% GB% this season
Zimmerman is a pitcher to pick on today. He has a 5.63 SIERA, 12.6% K%, and 42.3% Hard%. Although the Orioles are stacked with right-handed bats, Zimmerman has been equally bad, if not worse, against RHH (.406 wOBA, 49.3% FB%, 38.0% Hard%) as LHH (.385 wOBA, 46.9% FB%, 47.0% Hard%). Even without Machado in the lineup, Baltimore’s first six batters will have ISOs of .187 or higher against RHP. In addition to the obvious choices like Davis (44.3% FB%, 28.8% HR/FB, 43.0% Hard%, .268 vs. RHP since 2016) and Trumbo (42.1% FB%, 23.0% HR/FB, 37.8% Hard%, .270), Jones (38.6% FB%, 16.3% HR/FB, 32.9% Hard%. .187 ISO), Smith (37.6% FB%, 13.6% HR/FB, 30.5% Hard%, .200 ISO), Schoop (36.5% FB%, 15.3% HR/FB, 30.0% Hard%, .201 ISO), and Mancini (26.7% FB%, 62.5% HR/FB, 50.0% Hard%, .405 ISO) will all be interesting options. Mancini has a .425 wOBA, and 172 wRC+ against RHP through 47 plate appearances. Although his fly ball rate isn’t great, he’s posted a 30.0% LD% and his ground ball rate of 43.3% is average. On the downside, he has a 29.8% K% against righties. However, as mentioned, Zimmerman has a low K% and his SwStr% is 8.2%. Mancini, who’s batting second today, has shown some real upside with a pair of two-homerun games in April and his matchup with Zimmerman is a great spot to target.
Other tagged players: Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado, Trey Mancini, Seth Smith, Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop, Jordan Zimmermann Matt Szczur scratched from Padres lineup; Allen Cordoba replaces
Szczur has been officially scratched from the San Diego Padres lineup for tonight’s game against the Milwaukee Brewers due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Allen Cordoba, who will bat eighth. Meaning, the remainder of the Padres batting order will remain the same.
As reported by: Official Twitter Account of the San Diego Padres Other tagged players: Allen Cordoba Start of Wednesday's game between COL-MIN will be delayed due to rain
The game between the Colorado Rockies and Minnesota Twins will officially begin in a rain delay tonight. This news was essentially expected after Kevin Roth initially classified the game as RED/ORANGE in his latest weather update prior to lock. Obviously, players in this game remain extremely risky should the game be postponed, while the starting pitchers should be avoided at all costs given the threat of an in-game delay, that is if they decide to even begin play after the initial rain delay concludes. Of course, that is under the assumption that the rain delay does conclude at some point.
Miguel Cabrera has been scratched, Alex Avila now IN Detroit lineup
Cabrera has been officially scratched from the Detroit Tigers lineup for tonight’s game against the Baltimore Orioles due to soreness in the left side of his body. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Alex Avila, while J.D. Martinez will slide up in the order to bat third.
As reported by: Detroit Tigers Other tagged players: Alex Avila NYY lineup clarification: Gardner, Sanchez, Holliday, Castro, Judge, Headley, Gregorius, Hicks, Carter
Updating a previous report from a New York Yankees beat writer, Jacoby Ellsbury is not in tonight’s starting lineup and Aaron Hicks will replace him and bat eighth. This slides both Chase Headley and Didi Gregorius up one spot in the order to sixth and seventh respectively. The remainder of the lineup remains unchanged.
As reported by: Official Twitter Account of the New York Yankees Ian Happ may be the most popular cheap bat, but he's not the only one in a decent spot tonight
Ian Happ is the easy and likely to be very popular cheap bat ($2.7K or less) in the middle of the top projected offense tonight. Further down in the same lineup, Miguel Montero ($3K DK, $2.5K FD) should be a popular cheap Catcher. The batting order spot shouldn’t matter much as few Catchers have envious lineup spots tonight. Stephen Vogt (unconfirmed) could be an alternative option for a couple hundred more. John Jaso ($3.1K DK, $2.3K FD) bats second against Jacob Turner as well as Adam Frazier ($3.3K DK, $2.3K FD) as a Happ alternative out of the leadoff spot. Luis Valbuena costs an absurd $2.2K on FanDuel, hitting cleanup against Miguel Gonzalez. Looking for Outfield affordables at the top of the lineup brings players potentially Matt Joyce ($3.3K DK, $2.7K FD), who should be in the Oakland lineup, and Leury Garcia ($2.6K on DK) leading off for the White Sox.
Other tagged players: Miguel Montero, Stephen Vogt, John Jaso, Adam Frazier, Luis Valbuena, Matt Joyce, Leury Garcia Colorado @ Minnesota in danger of PPD, also some risk at Wrigley
Kevin is not a fan of the outlook in Minnesota tonight, going RED/ORANGE, making all players a significant risk in this game. The risk at Wrigley has decreased somewhat. While bats appear playable, Kevin still sees the chance for a delay and has it YELLOW/ORANGE. Rain should be cleared out of St Louis by first pitch and Kevin otherwise updates some wind conditions. Read the full report on the Weather page and be sure to follow Kevin (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Jacoby Ellsbury NOT in Yankee lineup, Aaron Hicks bats eighth
The original Yankees lineup had Jacoby Ellsbury in it, batting sixth. He is getting the night off. Headley and Gregorius move up. Aaron Hicks will bat eighth.
As reported by: Pete Caldera Other tagged players: Jacoby Ellsbury