DFS Alerts
Five Cubs projected to be in 20%+ of lineups tonight
The five most popular players on either site are projected to be Cubs tonight with Schwarber, Russell, Rizzo, Happ and Bryant all expected to be in 20% or more of lineups. The easiest place to diversify might be First Base with several players projected for big nights according to RotoGrinders Player Projections an Freddie Freeman projected to be in 10% of lineups or fewer on either site and Wil Myers (1%) grabbing the top Contrarian Rating (ContR) on either site. Matt Shoemaker and Michael Pineda are projected to be the most popular arms with Jhoulys Chacin a surprising third, no doubt due to Milwaukee’s high strikeout rate and potential injury situation (Braun DL, both Shaw & Thames out of games this week). Michael Fulmer and Gerrit Cole could be more contrarian plays. Each has a tough opponent, but have been pitching well. Premium subscribers can find potential ownership rates on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Wil Myers, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ, Kris Bryant, Matt Shoemaker, Michael Pineda, Jhoulys Chacin, Gerrit Cole, Michael Fulmer
Warm temperatures around the league with wind potentially a factor in several spots
While Wrigley is the most notable with gusts forecasted up 30 mph out to center tonight, it’s not the only stadium where conditions could influence outcomes tonight. St Louis (15-20 mph Left), Kansas City (15 mph Center) and even Los Angeles (10-15 mph Right) could all experience a boost for power hitters tonight with outward bound winds, while batters in Detroit (15-20 mph Right), Atlanta (10 mph Left), and Texas (15-25 mph Right) may all have to hit the ball a little harder to get it into the seats tonight with winds blowing in. Temperatures are projected to be in the high 70s, low 80’s in most spots tonight with the west coast parks a bit cooler (60s) and Minnesota even cooler than that high 50s, if that game is played at all.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page First Base has three of the four top projected bats tonight, but Second Base may hold more value
Despite the Cubs being projected for more than six runs tonight, the RotoGrinders Player Projections only see one of their batters as a top four overall bat and Anthony Rizzo is among two other First Basemen (Freddie Freeman & Eric Thames) and Mike Trout, who had homered in four consecutive games before last night. Ian Happ is mis-priced on DraftKings ($2.7K) and is the easy pick for top value (3.18 Pt/$/K), but he is followed by Rizzo (2.4 Pt/$/K) and another Cub (Addison Russell 2.36 Pt/$/K). FanDuel also sees Happ ($2.3K) as the top value (4.83 Pt/$/K), but here, he is followed by Second Base counterparts Jed Lowrie (3.7 Pt/$/K) and Rougned Odor (3.68 Pt/$/K).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Eric Thames, Mike Trout, Addison Russell, Ian Happ, Rougned Odor, Jed Lowrie Victor Martinez has four career HRs against Ubaldo Jimenez
Victor Martinez has a BvP leading four HRs against Ubaldo Jimenez and while many of their 38 matchups took place prior to Statcast, he still has an excellent 94.2 mph aEV on eight recorded BBEs. J.D. Martinez also has eight recorded BBEs against Jimenez with an impressive 98.3 mph aEV and two HRs. Mike Trout has three HRs against Miguel Gonzalez. Almost all of their 19 matchups occurred before Statcast (two BBEs), players can likely feel confident in this hitter’s abilities.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Miguel Gonzalez, Mike Trout Yankees have a major league leading 143 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers
Jason Vargas may be in the midst of a breakout in his age 34 season. Although his 1.01 ERA flies well below his 3.62 SIERA, his 12.5 SwStr% is easily a career high. The Yankees, however, torture both LHPs (112 wRC+, 16.2 HR/FB) and have a major league best 143 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers. While Kansas City is certainly not Yankee Stadium, Kevin has forecasted winds out to center (15 mph) for the second straight night after the Yankees unloaded on another fly ball pitcher (Jason Hammel) last night. Gary Sanchez (242 sOPS+, 2 HRs), Aaron Judge (222 sOPS+, 8 HRs), Aaron Hicks (205 sOPS+, 2 HRs) and Starlin Castro (185 sOPS+, 5 HRs) have all done severe damage to pitchers with fly ball tendencies. Sanchez (123 wRC+, .339 ISO) and Judge (141 wRC+, .289 ISO) have also punished LHP in their career.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Gary Sanchez, Aaron Hicks, Starlin Castro, Jason Vargas Michael Pineda projected for most strikeouts on night slate (6.37)
Michael Pineda has the top strikeout projection (6.37) on the Daily K Predictor tonight and is also the top overall pitcher via RotoGrinders Player Projections, barely edging out Gerrit Cole tonight. Pineda has a quality matchup in Kansas City (79 wRC+ at home and vs RHP, 8.6 HR/FB at home) and increased GB rate (51.4%) with a decreased hard hit rate (28.7%) to go along with the second best K-BB in the majors (26.7%). With an ERA (3.27) finally a bit closer to his estimators, he’s an easy pitching choice for players tonight. The Royals also have a 91 sOPS+ and 27.7 K% against power pitchers, according to Baseball-Reference. Michael Fulmer has the second highest strikeout projection (6.02) and has gone at least seven innings in three of four starts. He could be at to do at least that again as bullpens were worn out in a 13 inning, 24 run affair last night.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Michael Fulmer J.D. Martinez and Chris Davis each have four HRs and a hard hit rate above 65% over the last week
J.D. Martinez (434 wRC+, 70 Hard%, 4 HRs) is the hottest bat on the slate over the last week (10 PA min.), homering twice last night and making his impact felt after missing the first month and a half of the season. He has a neutral matchup against Ubaldo Jimenez (RHBs .306 wOBA since 2016), but should bat with runners on base if Ubaldo is his normal wild self. Eric Sogard is the second hottest hitter on the slate (399 wRC+, 50 Hard%, 2 HRs). The two bombs represent 20% of his career total and San Diego is not a favorable environment, but he costs less than $3K on either site and could bat near the top of the order again against Jhoulys Chacin (LHBs .340 wOBA since 2016). A pair of Orioles follow with Chris Davis (385 wRC+, 81.8 Hard%, 4 HRs) and Caleb Joseph (357 wRC+, .45.5 Hard%, 1 HR). The former is at least an interesting consideration, even against Michael Fulmer (LHBs .255 wOBA career), as he’s a formidable opponent for any RHP when he’s this hot. Jayson Werth (310 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, 1 HR) finds himself in a difficult environment for RHBs againsta tough pitcher (Gerrit Cole) and may be better off avoided tonight. Ian Happ has had a red hot start to his major league career (296 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%, 2 HR) and is basically free in the middle of the Cubs’ lineup with the wind blowing out at Wrigley.
Other tagged players: Chris Davis, Caleb Joseph, Jayson Werth, Eric Sogard, Ian Happ Jason Vargas owns a 25.4% K% against RHH this season
Including the 41 RHH faced last season, that rate is 25.7%. Despite a fastball that averages 86.1 mph, a new release point – lower and farther left – has enabled Vargas to record a 12.5% SwStr% overall, which would be the highest of his career. Impressively, the Royals pitcher has posted a 1.01 ERA this season. He hasn’t allowed an earned run over his last 13 innings (two starts) and he’s pitched 6.0 or more innings in all but one of his seven starts this season, four of which were shutouts. However, he’s undoubtedly gotten a little lucky along the way; his .264 BABIP is .019 below his career average and he’s only allowed a 2.0% HR/FB rate so far. The latter metric has been aided by his ability to limit Hard% to 26.2%, but it’s bound to regress towards his career 8.7% rate. Additionally, he has a 3.65 SIERA; although that’s a solid number, it still presents a 2.64 gap from his ERA. Tonight, Vargas will face off against a Yankees team loaded with power righties with high strikeout rates. It’s a matchup that presents interesting tournament options in both directions. On one side, Vargas has a great ERA and high K% against righties and he has the pleasure of pitching to guys like Aaron Judge (35.4% K% vs. LHP), Gary Sanchez (29.2% K%), Matt Holliday (22.6% K%), and Chris Carter (32.0% K%). At the same time, when these guys have managed to make contact, they’ve been crushing lefties and Vargas has allowed a 43.6% FB% and 30.5% Hard% to RHH. Judge (52.4% FB%, 27.3% HR/FB, 42.6% Hard%, .289 ISO, 178 wRC+ vs. LHP this season), Sanchez (43.6% FB%, 35.3% HR/FB, 46.2% Hard%, .339 ISO, 123 wRC+ since 2016), Holliday (35.3% FB%, 50.0% HR/FB, .391 ISO, 224 wRC+ this season), and Carter (50.0% FB%, 12.5% HR/FB, 31.3% Hard%, .167 ISO, 38 wRC+ this season) will be a dangerous group for Vargas to get through, particularly in the HR/FB category. The question is whether they’ll be able to make contact with the ball in the first place. The other major concern for the Yankees is the ballpark as there are only 0.77 home runs per game to left field in Kauffman Stadium. Overall, Vargas seems to be in the better spot, but a pivot to a Yankees stack is an interesting high-ceiling play with Vargas due for some negative regression. Another thing working in New York’s favor is Vargas’ K/9 has slipped to 5.21 over his past three starts, which is 2.65 below his season average.
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Matt Holliday, Chris Carter, Gary Sanchez
Starters could be asked for more in Detroit after 13 inning, 24 run marathon with Orioles last night
While there are no clear studies concerning games that go 13 innings with 24 runs scored, we do know that teams sometimes suffer hangover effects after double-headers and there may be some leftover impact for the Tigers and Orioles in tonight’s game. One could be starting pitchers being pushed a bit further, potentially favoring the Tigers with Michael Fulmer on the mound (at least seven innings in three of last four starts), but also at the plate if Ubaldo Jimenez is hung out to dry. While the Tigers are generally predominantly right-handed, they may stick a few LHBs in there tonight against Ubaldo’s .385 wOBA allowed since last season. Alex Avila is almost assuredly going to catch tonight and would make for a great value play with a 130 wRC+ and .198 ISO vs RHP since last season, while Tyler Collins is a more average bat (95 wRC+, .146 ISO), but even cheaper. Victor Martinez (116 wRC+, .177 ISO vs RHP since last season) has some great numbers against Jimenez (four HRs in 38 PAs, 94.2 mph aEV on eight Statcast recorded BBEs). Fifteen to twenty mph winds blowing in from RF could put a bit of a damper on things though. J.D Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton and Ian Kinsler are all certainly in play as well with a wRC+ above 110 against RHP since last year for all four bats and Kinsler the only one below a .230 ISO.
Other tagged players: Ubaldo Jimenez, Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, JD Martinez, Victor Martinez, Justin Upton, Alex Avila, Tyler Collins Cubs implied for 6.48 runs w/ wind blowing out again, but Votto may be superior to Rizzo
With the wind once again blasting out at Wrigley, the Cubs have an implied run line above six (6.48) for the second consecutive day. Scott Feldman may not be as HR prone as Arroyo yesterday, but still allows contact at an above average rate with about an average ground ball rate. The biggest concern for the Cubs might be the weather forecast, as Kevin had this game ORANGE/YELLOW in his early forecast. If that improves later, this is an easy stack and with the Reds even implied for 5.02 runs, players can even add Joey Votto (169 wRC+, .251 ISO vs RHP since 2015) over Anthony Rizzo (144 wRC+, .255 ISO since 2015) to diversify, as he has has some quality numbers against Kyle Hendricks (two HRs in 17 PAs with a 97.1 aEV on eight Statcast recorded BBEs). Hendricks may have a 21.0 K% with a 3.40 ERA, but his velocity (two mph) and SwStr% (3.4 points) are both significantly down this season, while his hard hit rate is up to 35%.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo Arizona is one of two teams with a projected total over 5 runs on the early slate
The Diamondbacks are set to take on Matt Harvey this afternoon, which is looking like a nice matchup. Harvey has a SIERA of 5.1 and ERA of 5.63 this season to go along with a 14.9% K% and 10.3 BB%. He’s struggled against both righties and lefties so far; against right-handers, he’s allowing a .375 wOBA, 38.2% Hard%, and a 33.3% HR/FB rate, although he’s produced a 53.4% GB% and limited them to a 27.3% FB%. Against LHH, his GB% is a much lower 38.3% and the FB% is up to 38.2% – these changes parallel his career splits – while he’s allowed a .318 wOBA, and a Hard% of 31.6%. Jake Lamb stands out as a lefty to target; he’s posted impressive numbers against RHP since 2016: 38.2% FB%, 22.5% HR/FB, 40.6% Hard%, .279 ISO, .382 wOBA, and 133 wRC+. David Peralta (.169 ISO, .334 wOBA, 13.3% HR/FB, 36.6% Hard% in split since 2016) is another solid lefty option while Paul Goldschmidt (.227 ISO, .381 wOBA, 132 wRC+, 20.3% HR/FB, 38.6% Hard% in split since 2016) and Yasmany Tomas(.228 ISO, .324 wOBA, 94 wRC+, 21.0% HR/FB, 39.7% Hard%) present a pair of right-handers to attack Harvey with. All four guys have a K% above 20.0%, but as mentioned, Harvey’s K% is way down along with his SwStr%, which is currently sitting at 7.9%.
No weather concerns for early slate; Rockies-Twins considered orange/red tonight
The two outdoor games this afternoon – Rays-Indians and Dodgers-Giants – are all clear. Both have some decent winds blowing out and it’s going to be 82 degrees in Cleveland at first pitch. On the main slate, Kevin Roth is expecting some isolated storms for the Yankees-Royals (green/yellow) and Red Sox-Cardinals (yellow) games while he’s anticipating worse conditions for the Reds-Cubs (orange/yellow) and Rockies-Twins (orange/red) matchups. Although some weather models indicate the storms could clear up by game time in Minneapolis, Roth isn’t convinced. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Joey Rickard is the top option for a cheap bat in the leadoff spot
We’re still waiting on some late lineup confirmations, but we’re already looking at nice cheap bats to helps supplement your expensive pitching or top bats. If unconcerned about lineup placement when considering Catcher, James McCann (136 wRC+, .310 ISO vs LHP since last season), Martin Maldonado (136 wRC+, .136 ISO vs LHP since last season) and Jett Bandy (125 wRC+, .269 ISO vs LHP career) are all extremely affordable options and above average hitters against southpaws. Ian Happ costs just $2.2K on FanDuel in the middle of the top projected offense tonight, while teammate Jeimer Candelario costs just $200 more. This is likely where most players will look to save some offensive dollars. Nich Ahmed (unconfirmed) has a 219 wRC+ over the last week and costs $2.8K on either site against Tommy Milone if players are looking to punt SS tonight, while Wilmer Difo is the minimum on FanDuel against Chad Kuhl. Your cheap Outfielders are where some of the more premium lineup spots can be found with Joey Rickard (120 wRC+, .175 ISO vs LHP career) costs less than $3K on either site, as does Adam Frazier (107 wRC+ vs RHP) in a tougher spot against Stephen Strasburg.
Other tagged players: Adam Frazier, Wilmer Difo, Nick Ahmed, Jeimer Candelario, Ian Happ, James McCann, Martin Maldonado, Jett Bandy YELLOW/ORANGE in COL-MIN game highlights Tuesday's latest MLB weather forecast
There is currently a severe thunderstorm watch in Minnesota that could affect the start time of the game between the Colorado Rockies and Minnesota Twins, but Kevin Roth does believe that most of the storms should be cleared out by first pitch and the game is likely to play through. However, he did classify the game at YELLOW/ORANGE currently with hopes of decreasing the risk closer to lock. The other weather situation of note is the strong sustained winds blowing out to center at Wrigley Field in Chicago with warm temperatures, meaning that hitting conditions look to be ideal, putting Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs bats firmly into play for all formats. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
Temperatures around 80 with strong outward bound winds not only in Chicago, but KC too
Oddly, it’s the California games with the lowest projected temperatures tonight, around or just below 60 degrees in Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco, while temperatures are expected to be in the high 70s/low 80s in every other out-door spot tonight. Winds could play a factor in most outdoor games with inward bound projections from RF in Pittsburgh (9 mph), Detroit (12 mph) and Texas (18 mph). Chicago (center) and Kansas City (left) could see strong outward bound wins with gusts up to 30 mph, perhaps making the larger park feel a bit more like home for Sanchez, Judge and Holliday.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Gary Sanchez, Matt Holliday