DFS Alerts
Chris Davis and Jose Bautista have each homered four times against tonight's pitcher
There are not a lot of BvP products that grade out strongly among metrics that are more likely to mean something, but the few that players can find tonight do look particularly strong. Chris Davis has four HRs (28 PAs) against ground-baller Aaron Sanchez, whose GB rate relaxes to 47.1% against LHBs since last season. Davis, additionally, has a 96 mph aEV on 12 BBEs, second best among those with at least 10 BBEs against the pitcher they are facing tonight. Jose Bautista also has four HRs against the opposing pitcher (Chris Tillman) in twice the opportunities (56 PAs), but also a 94.2 mph aEV on 13 BBEs. He can add four more doubles with nine walks and only 11 Ks in this matchup. Jose Reyes has also homered four times against Ricky Nolasco, but the vast majority of those matchups took place more than five years in the past. Lorenzo Cain has not homered in 23 PAs against Hector Santiago, but has does have four doubles against an outstanding 98.7 mph aEV (12 BBEs) against a pitcher who has lived dangerously with a lot of hard contact (RHBs 37.7% since last season) in the air (RHBs 31.1 GB% since last season).
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Jose Bautista, Lorenzo Cain, Aaron Sanchez, Chris Tillman, Hector Santiago
RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor projects three pitchers for at least seven Ks tonight
On a particularly strong slate for pitching, there are three starters tonight with a strikeout rate in excess of 30% and the Daily K Predictor is optimistic about a few arms tonight with three arms (Chris Sale, Nate Karns, and Alex Wood) projected for seven strikeouts or more tonight. Curiously absent is one of those 30% arms in Jacob deGrom, likely because the Angels have had low strikeout rates in the past. However, they are a league average 20.4% vs RHP this year. The Predictor may be under-cutting deGrom, who has a SwStr above 13% in five of his last six starts. Chris Sale (38.8 K%, 16.1 SwStr%) has been the best (fantasy) pitcher in baseball this year, while some can make the argument that Alex Wood (33.1 K%, 12.1 SwStr%, 2.27 ERA, 2.47 SIERA) has been better than Kershaw. Nate Karns is second on the K Predictor (8.57) and has struck out 22 of his last 48 batters with the lowest walk rate of his career (7.7%), but continues to have HR issues and rarely pitches more than six innings. All pitchers mentioned are strong options tonight, though a few of them may need to be paired with a cheaper second pitcher on DraftKings. One thing to consider is that Lisalverto Bonilla has had a SwStr above 15% in each of his two starts and faces a Colorado offense with a 74 wRC+ at home, 71 wRC+ vs RHP and 61 wRC+ over the last week. Their K-BB in those situations (18.3%, 15.6%, and 19.7%).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Nate Karns, Alex Wood, Jacob deGrom, Lisalverto Bonilla Tim Anderson has the top wRC+ (428) over the last week
Although J.D. Martinez is realistically the hottest hitter on the slate (409 wRC+, 64.3 Hard%, 5 HRs) over the last week, when you relax the requirements to a 10 PA min., Chicago’s Tim Anderson actually has the highest wRC+ (428). Anderson has homered twice in 13 PAs with a 45.5 Hard% and faces a southpaw (Ariel Miranda), who has allowed RHBs a 34.3 Hard% and 18 of his 20 HRs allowed in his career. Chris Davis has a 386 wRC+ and 81.8 Hard% (5 HRs) over the last week. He faces a ground ball pitcher in Aaron Sanchez, but against LHBs (.294 wOBA), the GB rate relaxes to 47.1% and Davis has particularly strong numbers against him with four HRs (six XBHs) in 28 PAs with a 96 mph aEV (12 BBEs). Justin Bour (317 wRC+, 63.2 Hard%, 4 HRs) and Mike Trout (308 wRC+, 56.3 Hard%, 5 HRs) have had big weeks as well.
Other tagged players: Chris Davis, JD Martinez, Mike Trout, Justin Bour Detroit is projected for 4.79 runs against Nick Martinez even without key middle of the order bats tonight
Detroit has the second highest implied run line tonight (4.79), but despite the losses of Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera, some of their bats may grade out better than the highest projected offense (Washington (5.1 runs) against the tricky knuckleball of R.A. Dickey. Nick Martinez has allowed RHBs a .345 wOBA since last season despite a 25.7 Hard% because he still has a 17.8 HR/FB against them. LHBs have pounded him for .397 wOBA and 35.8 Hard%. This may make Alex Avila a top play both due to offensive prowess (135 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP since last season, 265 wRC+, 62.5 Hard% over the last week), but also as a salary saver behind the plate. In addition to the stats just quoted, his 66.7% of batted balls with an exit velocity above 95 mph leads the majors among those with at least 30 BBEs (he has 42). J.D. Martinez (158 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP since last season) may be able to pick up a lot of the slack from the lineup departures on his own. His 409 wRC+ over the last week leads the majors among those with more than 13 PAs and it includes five HRs and a 64.3 Hard%. Justin Upton (114 wRC+, .234 ISO), Ian Kinsler (112 wRC+, .167 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (122 wRC+, .191 ISO) all grade out well against RHP since last season and could complete a strong stack tonight. In fact, the only detriment to the Detroit offense tonight is a temperature projected to be in the low 50s. This is an otherwise great spot for this offense, which may be enhanced by better lineup spots with their traditional three and four batters out tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Alex Avila, Justin Upton, Nick Martinez, Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos Yonder Alonso OUT against debuting Hector Velazquez
Hector Velazquez is a 28 year-old Mexican League product who signed with the Red Sox this year and has produced a 14.0 K-BB% at AAA due to a low walk rate (4.7%). A little bit of complicated math gets you to an 18.7 K%. He has kept the ball on the ground at a remarkably consistent rate between 51.9% and 52.8% everywhere he’s been over the last four years. Oakland does not have a bad offense (110 wRC+ at home, 100 wRC+ vs RHP), but the park favors pitching. On a potentially chaotic five game slate, he could prove useful in an SP2 role on DraftKings ($6.4K) due to the fact that no one has seen much of him yet on a professional stage. Additionally, Yonder Alonso, one of their top LHBs, sits tonight. It’s difficult to recommend Oakland bats in this virtually unknown spot in a difficult park, except for Khris Davis, who seems to have few issues with big parks or RHP (122 wRC+, .275 ISO vs RHP since 2015).
Other tagged players: Khris Davis Mitch Moreland has three HRs and a 98.2 mph aEV (12 BBEs) against Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray is no longer missing bats at even a league average rate (12.7 K%, 7.9 SwStr% through three starts) and though he’s at least retained his velocity and ground ball rate (56.1%), he’s also seemingly lost the ability to generate weak contact. At a 25 Hard% in both 2013 and 2014, he’s been above 30% in each of the last two seasons. Tonight, he faces a Boston lineup with the lowest strikeout rate on the board (17.4% vs RHP), essentially removing him from consideration even on this weak slate, but it’s also difficult to roster bats against him due to the tendency to keep the ball on the ground. RHBs have actually hit him better since last season (.374 wOBA, 38.5 Hard%), though he’s kept batters from both sides on the ground more on more than 50% of batted balls. In a negative run environment, Mookie Betts (132 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP since 2015) remains a strong bat tonight, though expensive. Mitch Moreland (105 wRC+, .203 ISO vs RHP since 2015) does have some strong numbers against Gray with three HRs in 19 PAs and a 98.3 mph aEV on 12 BBEs.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Sonny Gray Clairifying TOR LU: Carrera, Bautista, Morales, Ceciliani, Coghlan, Barney, Goins, Maile, Stroman
Clairifying TOR LU: Carrera, Bautista, Morales, Ceciliani, Coghlan, Barney, Goins, Maile, Stroman
Hyun-Jin Ryu has walked nine of last 49 and only completed six innings twice
Hyun-Jin Ryu worked his way up over 100 pitches in his last start and is tied for the highest strikeout rate on the night slate (23.6%), but like the pitcher he is tied with and facing, he has had some major walk issues. He’s walked nine of his last 49 batters and has only gone six innings in two of his six starts this season. That’s a difficult profile to pay up for on DraftKings ($9.1K), but he may be more viable on FanDuel ($7.1K). The Marlins (19.2 HR/FB vs LHP) have some lefty-mashers in the middle of that lineup. Stanton (184 wRC+, .429 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Ozuna (148 wRC+, .238 ISO vs LHP since 2015) need not be avoided here, if not using Ryu. J.T. Realmuto (104 wRC+, .190 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is also a catching option. RHBs have a .400 wOBA against Ryu since last season.
Other tagged players: Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto, Hyun-Jin Ryu The Dodgers have a 124 wRC+ at home and 117 wRC+ vs RHP
Edinson Volquez has a 15.3 BB%, which just about renders his 23.6 K% completely useless. He’s not gone more than six innings this season, reaching that mark only twice. The Dodgers pound mediocre RHP (117 wRC+) at home (124 wRC+) and are virtually tied for the top implied run line tonight (4.7). LHBs have a .356 wOBA (35.7 Hard%) against Volquez (RHBs .332 wOBA, 28.8 Hard%) since last season, making the top half of the projected (Pederson, Seager, Turner, Grandal, Bellinger) not only playable, but desirable as well. Each has at least a 120 wRC+ and .220 ISO vs RHP since 2015 (or career) and of that group, only Pederson has a wRC+ below 135 over the last week.
Other tagged players: Joc Pederson, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, Yasmani Grandal, Edinson Volquez Rookie Sam Gaviglio does not miss a lot of bats, but has a great matchup (White Sox) in a great park (Seattle)
Sam Gaviglio made his major league debut less than a month shy of his 27th birthday with two innings of relief last week, in which he struck out four of eight Blue Jays. He had just a 12.4 K% at AAA this year and hasn’t been above 20% since AA in 2014. He has generated ground balls at more than 50% at nearly every stop along his minor league journey. The biggest advantages he’ll have is the element of surprise, an extremely negative run environment, and the fact they he may be facing the equivalent of a minor league lineup in the White Sox (79 wRC+ on the road, 76 wRC+ vs RHP). With weather looming in Kansas City and bad tempers in Atlanta, he may serve as an interesting contrarian option on two pitcher sites (5% ownership projection on DraftKings). Without knowing too much about him, the top offensive plays on this side of the ball may be Leury Garcia (105 wRC+, .189 ISO vs RHP career), potentially leading off, and Jose Abreu (127 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP since 2015).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Dodgers lefties in nice spot against Edinson Volquez, who's allowed a 46.8% Hard% to LHH this season
Los Angeles will face Edinson Volquez tonight, who’s struggled against LHH this season – 40.0% FB%, 16.7% HR/FB, 46.8% Hard%, .399 wOBA. That sets up a nice spot for the Dodgers, who are projected to have four of their first five batters swinging from the left side of the plate. All four have ISOs of .219 or more and Hard% of at least 39.6% against LHP. Bellinger, who’s only had 60 plate appearances in split, leads the way with a .407 ISO, 50.0% FB%, 33.3% HR/FB, and a 44.7% Hard%. Stacking him with Yasmani Grandal (.256 ISO, 40.9% FB%, 22.6% HR/FB, 39.6% Hard% vs. LHP since 2016), Joc Pederson (.253 ISO, 38.7% FB%, 22.9% HR/FB, 40.2% Hard%), and Corey Seager (.219 ISO, 290% FB%, 20.2% HR/FB, 40.9% Hard%) seems like a solid play. An issue here is the K%, as Bellinger, Grandal, and Pederson have all posted a K% between 25.8-26.7%, and Volquez has a 23.6% K% this season. However, he has an average SwStr% of 9.3% and as expected, he’s been much more effective against righty bats – 27.3% K% to 21.6% K% against LHH. All of this looks nice for these lefties and Vegas gives the Dodgers the second-highest projected run total on the board (4.68).
Tornado Watch in Kansas City puts the NYY-KCR game at ORANGE in latest MLB weather forecast
There are just two games with weather concerns on Thursday night’s docket, coming to us in Atlanta for a matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Atlanta Braves and in Kansas City for the tilt between the New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals. The game in Atlanta is far less concerning with a classification of YELLOW for a chance pop-up scattered storms, while the game in Kansas City looks to carry much more risk given the classification of ORANGE and Tornado Watch that has been issued for the area through this evening. This obviously puts us in a tough position to roster starting pitchers and even distributes a ton of added risk to hitters should the game be postponed. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
RHBs have .542 wOBA, 42.9 Hard% against Dylan Covey, Nelson Cruz top projected bat
Dylan Covey struck out nine in his last start, bringing his season total to 20 in six starts. RHBs have absolutely destroyed him to the tune of a .542 wOBA and 42.9 Hard%. As such, Nelson Cruz (141 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the top overall projected bat on the slate (RotoGrinders Player Projections), as well as the hottest Mariner over the last week (188 wRC+), although Kyle Seager (127 wRC+, .195 ISO vs RHP since 2015) also has a 68.4 Hard% over the last seven days. LHBs have a .308 wOBA and 30.6 Hard% against Covey. The Mariners are the top projected offense on the slate (4.77 runs). Most Mariner bats would appear at least playable tonight with Jean Segura (144 wRC+, 37.5 Hard% over the last week) a fine alternative to Corey Seager at SS.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Kyle Seager, Jean Segura, Dylan Covey LHBs have a .338 wOBA against Teheran since last season, Smoak 302 wRC+, 4 HRs last seven days
Julio Teheran may not be enjoying his new ballpark, but he can’t blame it for his 16.9 K%. His 8.1 HR/FB is saving his 4.08 ERA from further embarrassment and it could be even worse once his HR rate reaches his 10% career mark. If it regresses to a league average mark in a more power friendly park, he’s going to really be in trouble, especially if the strikeout rate remains well below average. LHBs have a .338 wOBA and 35.2 Hard% against him since last season, which are pretty close to his career marks as well. Toronto doesn’t have many LHBs, but Justin Smoak (103 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP since 2015) appears a great value tonight and has a 302 wRC+ with four HRs (50 Hard%) over the last week. Jose Bautista (136 wRC+, .256 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has been hot too (242 wRC+, 50 Hard%), but players will likely want to avoid other RHBs. Teheran has allowed them just a .239 wOBA since last season. While other LHBs appear solid on a point per dollar projection, there shouldn’t be much need to save that much salary tonight. Ezequiel Carrera (52.6 Hard% last seven days) at the top of the lineup and Kendrys Morales (114 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP since 2015), if they found a way to use him in an NL park, could be exceptions.
Other tagged players: Julio Teheran, Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, Ezequiel Carrera Yankees mash both LHP (117 wRC+) and fly ball pitchers (145 sOPS+)
Danny Duffy is pitching with reduced velocity and strikeouts are down. His SwStr% has been up and down, but was 15.5% in his last start after being below six in two of his previous three. His ERA remains at 3.38, well below his 4.75 SIERA, due to an unsustainable 3.6 HR/FB. He’s the third straight fly ball pitcher the Royals will toss at the Yankees. Generally an asset in that park, the Yankees mash fly ball pitchers (145 sOPS+ is best in baseball) as well as LHP (117 wRC+, 15.7 HR/FB). Aaron Hicks (three HRs), Gary Sanchez (two HRs), Aaron Judge (eight HRs) and Starlin Castro (four HRs) all exceed a 200 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers. Sanchez (121 wRC+, .317 ISO career), Judge (135 wRC+, .275 ISO career) and Matt Holiday (125 wRC+, .240 ISO since 2015) also punish LHP as well. Judge and Sanchez have also exceeded a 50% hard hit rate over the last week. Duffy allowed 26 HRs to RHBs last season and 15 the year before in under 150 innings. This is a dangerous spot for a pitcher flying well below his ERA estimators.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Gary Sanchez, Aaron Hicks, Matt Holliday, Starlin Castro, Danny Duffy