DFS Alerts
Coors bats predictably projected for high ownership, but pitching is more spread out
Coors bats litter the top of the Projected Ownership board on either site tonight with a couple of cheap leadoff hitters (Seth Smith, Tim Beckham) mixed in on either site. Third Base is an especially interesting position, where Jake Lamb grabs the top spot on either site, but there are a number of reasonable pivots from Coors, including Miguel Sano, Manny Machado, Jedd Gyorko and maybe even Matt Davidson that may either help spread ownership around or offer contrarian options. The plethora of strikeouts available spreads out the pitching projections pretty well, so there’s nobody players should really be concerned with fading tonight. Chris Archer and Stephen Strasburg get up over 25% on DraftKings, but no pitcher is projected to be in more than 20% of lineups on FanDuel with those two being the only ones above 10%. Premium subscribers can use the Projected Ownership page to identify potential fades and find contrarian options.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Jedd Gyorko, Miguel Sano, Seth Smith, Tim Beckham, Matt Davidson, Chris Archer, Stephen Strasburg
Most favorable hitting conditions may be in Baltimore tonight
Coors is always going to have the top park factor for batters, but considering weather conditions, Baltimore is projected to be one of the warmer spots tonight (around 70 at first pitch), while Kevin is projecting “winds south at 15-20, gusts 25, blowing out to left-center”. This might be something players can really take advantage of as both lineups lean heavily right-handed. The White Sox have a team 126 wRC+ vs LHP and while Wade Miley is striking out everyone this year (29.7%), he has a career 11.6 HR/FB and a 16.2 HR/FB his first (partial) year in Baltimore last season. RHBs have a .340 wOBA against him since 2015. Todd Frazier may not be in the lineup for the White Sox, but Matt Davidson (139 wRC+, .222 ISO vs LHP career) is fourth in the majors in Barrels/BBE (24.3%). Jose Abreu did not hit LHP very well in his first couple of years in the league, but has a 127 wRC+, .240 ISO against them since last season and a 247 wRC+ overall over the last week. Avisail Garcia (118 wRC+, .173 ISO vs LHP since last season) has a 181 wRC+ over the last week. Baltimore, meanwhile doesn’t need a LHP on the mound to flex their RH muscle. Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, and Jonathan Schoop all have at least a 119 wRC+ and .199 ISO vs RHP since 2015. Miguel Gonzalez is a fly ball pitcher, who allowed either 24 or 25 HRs in each of the three seasons he received at least 26 starts as a member of the Orioles, pitching half his games in tonight’s park.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Matt Davidson, Avisail Garcia, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop Miguel Sano leads the majors with 27.3% Barrels/BBE, Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed them on 10% of BBE
The Statcast leader in overall Barrels and Barrels/PA is off the slate tonight, but there’s still some information we can put to use tonight. Miguel Sano strikes out a lot and faces a strikeout pitcher in Eduardo Rodriguez, but also one who has walked 14.7% of batters and has allowed Barrels on 10% of BBE. There then stands a good chance that Sano, the current major league leader with Barrels on 27.3% of BBE, is likely to hit the ball HARD when he does make contact (which he may not even get to do against Rodriguez). Sorting by Barrels/BBE also shows Matt Davidson fourth (25%) among those with at least 30 BBE. That’s probably not a name anyone expected to see and he bats fifth tonight against Wade Miley in Baltimore with Kevin projecting a strong wind blowing out to LF. Davidson (139 wRC+, .222 ISO vs LHP career) costs just $3.5K on DraftKings and not much more than the minimum on FanDuel.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Statcast Other tagged players: Matt Davidson, Eduardo Rodriguez, Wade Miley Coors bats claim the top eight spots in the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight
Arizona and Colorado bats claim the top eight spots on the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight with Trea Turner sneaking in just beneath them against the rookie Nick Pivetta in Philadelphia. Jake Lamb is projected to be the top value among those bats on either site. Early ownership projection numbers have him at a healthy 20%. An acceptable pivot in this case might be Evan Longoria, projected as one of the top values on FanDuel tonight (3.82 Pt/$/K) against Francisco Liriano for just $2.8K. Andrew Benintendi wore a collar last night (0 points), but projects as the top DraftKings value (2.47 Pt/$/K) for just $3.8K against Phil Hughes, who struggles against batters from either side (LHBs .343 wOBA since 2015). On the pitching side, Chris Archer has both the highest projection and a top two value projection on either site. Ownership should be pretty well spread out considering all the high strikeout options on tonight’s slate.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Trea Turner, Evan Longoria, Andrew Benintendi, Chris Archer Dustin Pedroia has five HRs, 93 mph aEV against Phil Hughes (43 PAs, 6 BBE)
Dustin Pedroia is tonight’s BvP champion with a slate leading five HRs against the pitcher he is facing tonight. In all, he has eight extra-base hits in 43 PAs against Phil Hughes with a 93 mph aEV on six BBE and just four strikeouts on a rivalry that goes back to Hughes’ Yankees days. While both have declined, Hughes has seen a steeper drop and certainly still struggles with RHBs (.359 wOBA since 2015). Carlos Gonzalez has homered four times against Zack Greinke, but has struck out eight times in 39 PAs and has just an 88.3 mph aEV in 14 recorded BBE. Greinke has been pitching well with reduced velocity, while Gonzalez has been the one to struggle this year (35 wRC+). He’s hitting more balls on the ground (52%) with a BABIP 100 points below his career average, but his peripherals otherwise appear to be in line. Trevor Story and Mark Reynolds have both homered three times against Greinke, but neither has an aEV exceeding 90 mph. Among those with at least 10 Statcast recorded BBE against tonight’s opponent, Kendrys Morales has a phenomenal 103.5 mph aEV against Chris Archer (10 BBE) with two HRs (23 PA). Going back to Coors, Nolan Arenado has an impressive 94 mph aEV against Greinke (17 BBE), but without a HR (five doubles) in 36 PAs.
As reported by: Statcast Matchups Other tagged players: Phil Hughes, Zack Greinke, Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story, Mark Reynolds, Kendrys Morales, Chris Archer Three Nationals among the hottest bats over the last week
The two hottest bats over the last week (both above a 400 wRC+) may not even be in the lineup tonight as neither Marwin Gonzalez (418 wRC+, 5 HRs) nor Steve Pearce (410 wRC+, 77.8 Hard%, 3 HRs) often see opportunities against RHP. If recent hot streaks do lead to them finding themselves playing tonight, keep in mind that both are around league average bats against RHP at a low cost. Three of the next four hottest batters over the last week come from the Washington lineup. Matt Wieters (353 wRC+, 55.6 Hard%, 3 HRs), Ryan Zimmerman (302 wRC+, 61.9 Hard%, 3 HRs) and Anthony Rendon (262 wRC+, 41.2 Hard%, 3 HRs) face rookie Nick Pivetta, making his second major league start. Pivetta was not on the prospect radar, but a hot start (30.5 K-BB% through three AAA starts) got him catapulted to the major league rotation after a couple of injuries. He may have a weakness against LHBs due to a poor change-up, so perhaps a full Washington stack is in order if leaning that way. Mike Trout (322 wRC+, 45.5 Hard%, 2 HRs) is the other name on top of this list, but this isn’t far from his standard week. He did sit out last night’s game with a hamstring issue, so you’ll want to make sure he plays tonight as that lineup may release fairly late for a west coast game.
Other tagged players: Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Marwin Gonzalez, Mike Trout, Steve Pearce Alternatives to Coors include RH Boston bats against Hughes (RHBs .359 wOBA since 2015)
The Diamondbacks and Rockies are naturally the top projected offenses on the board and the only two teams with an implied run total above five. While Greinke has pitched well this season, Coors bats should still be pretty popular tonight. Looking for strong alternatives outside Colorado, we find a great pivot from Goldschmidt at 1B with Freddie Freeman (162 wRC+, .283 ISO vs RHP since 2015) against Lance Lynn, who’s always had trouble with LHBs (.354 wOBA since 2015). Michael Conforto (135 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP career) is up to $3.7K on DraftKings, but still potentially a strong value at the top of the lineup against Tom Koehler (LHBs .343 wOBA since 2015). Seth Smith (122 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is only $2.7K on FanDuel against Miguel Gonzalez (LHBs .327 wOBA since 2015) and is coming off a big night. Lastly, the Red Sox are third with a 4.85 run projection, but Phil Hughes has occasionally shown reverse splits (RHBs .359 wOBA since 2015), making Hanley Ramirez (105 wRC+, .182 ISO vs RHP since 2015) a potentially under-owned top bat, who has multi-position eligibility on DraftKings. Dustin Pedroia (115 wRC+, .128 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may be more popular with great BvP believers due to great numbers (five HRs) against Hughes.
Other tagged players: Dustin Pedroia, Seth Smith, Michael Conforto, Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt Plenty of strikeouts, but also a ton of walks on tonight's board
There are four arms on the night slate that exceed a 29% strikeout rate this year. All of them have a walk rate above 11%, while two (Miley & Rodriguez) have walked more than 14% of the batters he’s faced. Wade Miley also has just a 9.6 SwStr%. One of them, Yu Darvish (7.85), sits atop tonight’s Daily K Predictor, tralied closely by Zack Greinke (7.51) in Colorado and Stephen Strasburg (7.47) in Philadelphia. Don’t be so quick to dismiss Greinke in Coors. He’s facing a stuttering offense (75 wRC+ vs RHP, 60 wRC+ over the last week) at a reduced cost (around $8K on either site) and seems not to have be too greatly affected by reduced velocity, striking out 20 of his last 50 batters, including 11 of these Rockies in his last start. Strikeouts shouldn’t be a problem tonight, but there’s a question of what comes with it. Strasburg may be in the best spot in addition to the upside. He’s gone exactly seven innings in every start. Looking for a lower cost arm with some upside might bring you to Andrew Triggs (at least on DraftKings – $6.7K). While his nine strikeouts in his last start represent just over 40% of his season total of 22, his SwStr rate has been above 12% in three of his five starts. Triggs adds a great batted ball profile (55.8 GB%, 24.1 Hard%), but faces a tough Detroit offense that has been the top team in the majors against GB pitchers (148 sOPS+ via Baseball Reference).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Andrew Triggs, Zack Greinke, Yu Darvish, Wade Miley, Eduardo Rodriguez Mike Trout absent from Angels lineup tonight
Ariel Miranda has pitched better at home (17.2 K-BB% since last season) than on the road, but has been a bit of a HR machine either way (10 in 50 innings at home). The Angels have just a 4.0 HR/FB vs LHP, but are predominantly RH. Though Miranda has kept RHBs to a wOBA more than 40 points lower than to LHBs, he’s surrendered 17 of his 18 career HRs to righties. If we’re dealing with a potential hard contact generator against a contact prone offense (6.8 K-BB% vs LHP), it’s difficult to find enough upside beyond the risk for more than $7K. Mike Trout was a top ranked bat no matter the platoon split of the pitcher. Projecting for a middling 4.1 runs with the expectation of a full strengh lineup, the issue is that they still don’t strike out. Ben Revere may actually lessen the strikeout expectation, In a solidly negative run environment no bat deems necessary exposure here, but as one of just a few games without weather related risk tonight, Kole Calhoun (102 wRC+, .160 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Yunel Escobar (126 wRC+, .107 ISO vs LHP since 2015) may merit looks.
Other tagged players: Kole Calhoun, Yunel Escobar, Ariel Miranda Alex Meyer has allowed five HRs in 31.2 major league IP with a .432 wOBA allowed to LHBs
Alex Meyer was the fifth ranked prospect for the Angels via Fangraphs this season, but with just a 40 grade in a poor system. He’s 27 and missed most of last year due to injury. Some like the raw stuff, but he doesn’t throw enough strikes and walked more Blue Jays than he struck out in his first start, generating just three swings and misses. The one thing that may be in his favor, if we can call him a power pitcher bringing it at over 95 mph (though Baseball Reference defines it by strikeouts and walks), the Mariners drop 39% of their overall offense with a 77 sOPS+ vs power arms. In very little major league work, he’s allowed five HRs in 31.2 IP with LHBs pounding him for a .432 wOBA, though Nelson Cruz (142 wRC+, .242 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has homered against once in two PAs. Robinson Cano (141 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the top projected bat in the lineup, though the top five through Kyle Seager (127 wRC+, .195 ISO vs RHP since 2015) should be playable. Safeco is the most pitcher friendly run environment in play tonight, but players can’t be too picky with weather concerns in a couple of other spots.
As reported by: Baseball Reference Team Splits Other tagged players: Alex Meyer, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager Two games at risk tonight, NY@ATL likely for at least a delay
Two of the three games without the benefit of a dome tonight carry some weather related risk according to Kevin’s evening update. The most concerning development is in Atlanta (vs New York NL), where a line of storms could hit the Mets and Braves right around mid-game. With some kind of weather impact likely, Kevin has this game at ORANGE/YELLOW. It may be too risky for Wheeler and Garcia at best. St Louis ( Milwaukee) was rained out last night, so it's likely that they'll try harder to get this one in despite continuous rain in the area for days. The good news is that it should be gone by game time, which makes the question about field conditions. This means that at least we should know for sure before lock, so make sure to follow Kevin on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for further updates as well as reading his full report on the Weather page.
Lefty-masher Wilmer Flores (180 wRC+, .338 ISO since 2015) returns to bat cleanup at low price vs Jaime Garcia
The Mets lineup is severely compromised against LHP without Cespedes and even D’arnaud tonight, but they do get lefty-masher Wilmer Flores (180 wRC+, .338 ISO vs LHP since 2015) tonight in the cleanup spot at the absurdly low price of $3K on DraftKings and $2.4K on FanDuel. He even has two career HRs in 10 PAs against Jaime Garcia. You have to credit DraftKings with finally spiking the prices of Michael Conforto (11 wRC+ vs LHP career) and Jay Bruce (75 wRC+, .166 ISO vs LHP since 2015) in time to face the left-handed Garcia tonight. While Jose Reyes (115 wRC+, .184 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Asdrubal Cabrera (107 wRC+, .140 ISO vs LHP since 2015) have been average bats against LHP, Flores is the one players want exposure to tonight. Reyes, however, has put up a 178 wRC+, .324 ISO vs LHP since last season without a significant change in BABIP and is the hottest bat in the lineup over the last week (222 wRC+). He simply added 10 points to his hard hit rate and over seven points to his fly ball rate against southpaws. Garcia may have a 3.99 ERA, but just 13.5 K% despite a league average 9.4 SwStr% with estimators above five due to a .242 BABIP. Garcia, normally a ground ball prone pitcher (56.1 career GB%) has seen that number drop to 43.6% this year.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Jaime Garcia, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera Adam Wainwight projected to be most popular pitcher on tonight's slate
Adam Wainwright may not have drawn much interest if the game hadn’t been rained out last night, but on this slate, he’s projected to be the most popular arm on the board according to the Projected Ownership page (premium subscription). Considering Milwaukee’s 25.7 K% vs RHP and the fact that he accumulated over one-third of his season strikeout total in one start against the Brewers this year and it’s not difficult to see why. Especially with Hernan Perez (71 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) in the three hole again for Ryan Braun. The Brewers are projected for a slate low 3.5 runs, but Eric Thames (180 wRC+, .366 ISO vs RHP) is still projected as a top bat tonight. Though he has cooled off quite a bit (22 wRC+ last seven days), he’s still hit 50% of batted balls hard over the last week. LHBs (.362 wOBA, 33.3 Hard%) have had much more success than RHBs (.313 wOBA, 28.6 Hard%) against Wainwright since 2015.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Hernan Perez, Eric Thames Manny Machado (130 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP since 2015) projects as top bat vs Kyle Kendrick (7 HRs in 27 AAA IP)
The Orioles are projected only behind the offense they are facing tonight (4.8 runs) against Kyle Kendrick, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2015, when he had an ERA and FIP over six, but somehow merited a promotion with seven HRs allowed in 27 innings at AAA. Such is the state of the Boston pitching staff. While it is chilly in Boston tonight with temperatures in the mid-50s winds 11 mph out to left), expectations are for a pummeling tonight with Manny Machado (130 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP since 2015) nearly a must have bat (176 wRC+, 68.4 Hard% over the last week). Additionally, Adam Jones (114 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Seth Smith (119 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP since 2015) projecting as top values on FanDuel, while Smith also earns honors on DraftKings as well (2.16 Pt/$/K) according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections. This is a strongly stackable lineup with the possible exception of the Catcher position. Even J.J. Hardy merits consideration on FanDuel for just $2.1K.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Kyle Kendrick, Seth Smith, Adam Jones, J.J. Hardy Freddie Freeman is second in the major league in Barrels (15) with almost half his contact above 95 mph
Zack Wheeler walked four batters in his last start. He previously had not walked more than two, but struggled with his control and command often pre-surgery, so this is where he was expected to have issues coming off a two year layoff. Due to a 63.8 LOB% and some shoddy bullpen work with inherited runners, his ERA looks worse than his estimators. He’s a quality arm when he commands the breaking stuff and actually has the second highest strikeout rate (22.5%) on the night slate. The Braves are not a bad offense (99 wRC+, 19.5 K% vs RHP), but Wheeler is the pick for top FanDuel value on the slate (3.87 Pt/$/K) via RotoGrinders Player Projections, though his $9K price tag on DraftKings might be a bit aggressive. As Wheeler has missed two seasons, there’s very little Statcast BvP info on this matchup, but there’s plenty on Freddie Freeman (162 wRC+, .283 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who may be becoming matchup proof. He’s only one Barrel behind Aaron Judge for the major league lead with 15 with nearly half of his batted balls (37 of 76) hitting an exit velocity above 95 mph. Expensive as he may be, Freeman is the one bat that merits strong consideration out of this lineup on any given night. Ender Inciarte (108 wRC+, .124 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Matt Kemp (105 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP since 2015) both also have a wRC+ above 150 over the last week. One consideration may be that Kevin’s morning forecast projected potential weather interference in this game and it’s not as warm (mid-60s) as the last two nights when the ball had been jumping out of the park.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Statcast Other tagged players: Zack Wheeler, Ender Inciarte, Matt Kemp