DFS Alerts
Nationals bats aim to capitalize in matchup with Jeremy Hellickson without Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman
Jeremy Hellickson is coming off a rough start his last time out against the Chicago Cubs, allowing six earned runs in just four innings pitched. The beginning of some negative regression for Hellickson is not all that surprising when considering the significant gap between his 5.41 SIERA and currently respectable 3.18 ERA. The primary contributors to his high SIERA is an embarrassingly low 9.5% strikeout rate and an inability to induce ground balls, evidenced by a 34.5% ground ball rate that is down from a career 39.3% rate. Hellickson can always put up a solid start if the fly balls and BABIP go in his favor, but the aforementioned metrics don’t bode well in a matchup with a Washington Nationals squad that leads the league in runs scored this far this season. The Nationals are without both Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman this afternoon, but there are still plenty of skilled bats to target in this Washington lineup. Daniel Murphy (160 wRC+, .416 wOBA, .251 ISO vs RHP since 2016) and Trea Turner (150 wRC+, .402 wOBA, .249 ISO vs RHP since 2016) headline these hitters, while Anthony Rendon (109 wRC+, .339 wOBA, .182 ISO vs RHP since 2016) and Adam Lind (164 wRC+, .431 wOBA, .310 ISO vs RHP), who is off to a hot start this season, are the preferred secondary options to consider as part of a stack in tournaments.
Other tagged players: Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Adam Lind, Jeremy Hellickson
Several trouble spots to monitor this afternoon in latest MLB weather forecast
There are several areas with weather concerns to monitor throughout the afternoon, but the biggest threat looks to be in Colorado in a matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies as Kevin currently has the game classified as YELLOW/ORANGE. Fortunately, a postponement seems to be extremely unlikely, though a rain delay can not be entirely ruled out. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
Chris Sale has notched a career-high 16.6% SwStr% through six starts
If looking at results and advanced metrics, Chris Sale has been the best pitcher in Major League Baseball this season by a wide margin. This afternoon he’ll take the mound in search of his sixth consecutive start with double-digit strikeouts against a Minnesota Twins squad that is no stranger to punching out on a consistent basis. The Twins are typically a team that we don’t go out of our to target with left-handed pitchers, but Sale is in a class of his own and has shown almost no weakness in any aspect of his game this season, evidenced by a 2.12 SIERA, 37.5% strikeout rate, 4.8% walk rate, and 16.6% swinging strike rate thus far. Clearly, Sale brings dominant upside to the mound each and every start and has managed to pitch past the seventh inning in every single start this season, including three consecutive outings with at least eight innings pitched. Add that to the fact that the Twins haven’t been quite as feisty versus southpaws compared to seasons past, as they currently rank in the bottom-third of the league in in both wOBA and ISO against left-handed pitching. These stats are unlikely to see any positive regression in a matchup with Sale where he has the additional benefit of a significant ballpark upgrade without the Green Monster looming in left field for right-handed hitters to barrage. The only case to be made for fading Sale this afternoon is on FanDuel where the Coors Field game is included on the main slate, making it difficult (basically impossible) to pay for both Sale and several Coors batters. Otherwise, Sale clearly stands far and above as the top pitching option on the entire slate, and it’s not really close.
As reported by: FanGraphs Matt Harvey suspended three days; Adam Wilk will start in his place today
Harvey has officially been suspended for three days, retroactive to Saturday, by the New York Mets for violating an unspecified team rule. Adam Wilk will draw the start in his place for this afternoon’s matchup with the Miami Marlins. As for Wilk, he hasn’t started a game at the Major League level since 2015, immediately vaulting the Marlins into consideration for all formats on Sunday’s main slate.
As reported by: Anthony DiComo Other tagged players: Adam Wilk Mike Trout scratched from Angels lineup; Ben Revere will replace him
Trout was an extremely late scratch from the Angels lineup for tonight’s game against the Houston Astros due to a hamstring injury he aggravated during pregame warmups. Ben Revere will replace him in the lineup and play left field, while Cameron Maybin will slide over to center field. There has yet to be any sort of announcement from the team on an updated batting order, but the news of Trout’s unavailability became available just after the game’s scheduled lock time, making it impossible to swap Trout out of any daily fantasy rosters.
As reported by: Official Twitter Account of the Los Angeles Angels Tons of rain to monitor in latest MLB weather forecast, highest risk in MIL-PIT and STL-ATL
There are several rain situations to monitor across the Majors in Saturday’s most recent MLB weather forecast, but the biggest trouble spots come to us in the Milwaukee Brewers-Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals-Atlanta Braves games. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Chris Owings (illness) scratched from Diamondbacks lineup tonight
Owings has officially been scratched from the Diamondbacks lineup for tonight’s game against the Colorado Rockies due to an illness. Gregor Blanco will replace him in the lineup and bat eighth. This will move Nick Ahmed up to the two-hole in the order and immediately vaults him into cash game consideration for a reasonable price tag across the industry.
As reported by: Steve Gilbert Jedd Gyorko scratched from Cardinals lineup tonight
Gyorko has officially been scratched from the Cardinals lineup for tonight’s game against the Atlanta Braves due to a bruised hand he sustained in Friday’s contest. Greg Garcia will replace him at third base, but there has yet to be any official confirmation of an updated Cardinals batting order.
As reported by: Derrick Goold Lance McCullers owns a 39.5% K% and 65.8% GB% versus RHB this season
Lance McCullers has had some unexpected difficulty in some recent outings, but he is coming off of a solid performance in his last start, allowing just two earned runs and striking out 10 Texas Rangers in 6.1 innings of work. Tonight, he’ll take on a Los Angeles Angels squad that ranks middle of the pack in strikeouts, but they offer a lot to like elsewhere, as they rank 26th in wOBA and 28th in ISO against right-handed pitching. McCullers has always been a solid strikeout pitcher throughout his career, evidenced by a 30.3% strikeout rate to left-handed batters and a 24.9% mark to righties, while he has improved that number to a 39.5% whiff rate versus righties so far this season. Another sign that McCullers may finally be developing into a Major League caliber ace starting pitcher is that for the first time in his career he is issuing free passes at a below league average rate (7.4% BB%). It’s pretty difficult to make a viable argument for paying up to McCullers on DraftKings, where he is significantly overpriced, over Clayton Kershaw, but on sites like FanDuel, he becomes an intriguing tournament option away from Kershaw and Dylan Bundy. This strategy becomes interesting given McCullers’ likelihood of being the highest point-per-dollar starting pitcher on FanDuel and would allow players to pay up for better quality hitters in multiple spots to presumably make up the raw projected point difference between McCullers and Kershaw at the end of the night.
As reported by: FanGraphs Reds bats in position to go overlooked despite excellent matchup with Ty Blach
Ty Blach is coming off of two consecutive solid outings in which he’s allowed two earned runs or less, including seven shutout innings in his previous start against the San Diego Padres. The primary issue with Blach’s pitching profile is the absurdly low 11.5% strikeout rate he has notched through 13 career MLB appearances, including four starts, which could become an issue against a Cincinnati Reds lineup that typically punches out a decent amount versus left-handed pitching. The decreased threat of strikeouts makes the Reds an interesting stack in tournaments at home in Great American Ballpark (a.k.a. Great American Smallpark), though it seems best to avoid too many one-offs given Blach’s ability to suppress offense thus far in his brief Major League career, evidenced by a.198 wOBA versus left-handed batters and a .221 wOBA versus righties. Despite the solid numbers for Blach, anytime a starting pitcher allows this many balls in play, it’s a great spot to target an offense in hopes of capitalizing on several big innings before getting to the front end of a team’s bullpen. Eugenio Suarez (141 wRC+, .389 wOBA, .261 ISO vs LHP since 2016) and Adam Duvall (119 wRC+, .356 wOBA, .288 ISO vs LHP since 2016) are the clear top Reds hitters to target as the core to Cincinnati stacks, while Joey Votto (131 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .190 ISO vs LHP since 2016) and Zack Cozart (.242 ISO vs LHP since 2016) also remain firmly in play even with Votto’s steep decline in power versus left-handed pitching. If aiming to complete the full five-man stack, Jose Peraza or Billy Hamilton make the most sense given their stolen base upside should they reach safely as the lead runner.
Other tagged players: Adam Duvall, Joey Votto, Zack Cozart, Ty Blach Several cheap leadoff options tonight, including Tim Beckham and Kolten Wong
We’re still waiting for several lineups, but it already appears like a great day for cheap top of the lineup value that might be necessary with several $10K pitchers on the mound tonight. Kolten Wong (95 wRC+, .142 ISO vs RHP since 2016) leads off for the Cardinals in Atlanta tonight for $2.7K on DraftKings against Mike Foltynewicz (LHBs .354 wOBA since 2015). Jose Martinez (98 wRC+) bats second for $2.6K or less on either site. T.J. Rivera (154 wRC+, 190 ISO vs RHP) and Josh Bell (123 wRC+, .155 ISO vs RHP) both bat second against Tom Koehler and Jimmy Nelson at $3.1K or less on DK, while the former is just $2.4K on FD. Seth Smith (122 wRC+, .182 ISO vs RHP since 2016) leads off against Miguel Gonzalez for just $2.7K on FanDuel. Tim Beckham (115 wRC+, .162 ISO vs LHP since 2016) also leads off against Francisco Liriano for less than $3K on DraftKings. Matt Davidson (139 wRC+, .222 ISO vs LHP) does not bat leadoff, but only costs $2.3K on FanDuel, batting fifth against Wade Miley.
Other tagged players: Kolten Wong, T.J. Rivera, Josh Bellamy, Seth Smith, Matt Davidson, Jose Martinez
An 11.8% SwStr% implies positive regression for Chris Archer in the K% department
Chris Archer is set to take on the Toronto Blue Jays tonight for already the third time this season. In his previous two outings versus Toronto, he has pitched into at least the eighth inning while allowing no more than two earned runs in each start. Archer has seen mixed results in the strikeout department in those starts, but he did punch out eight Blue Jays in their last meeting at Tropicana Field. The current season numbers for Archer are less than impressive, evidenced by a 4.17 SIERA, 22.4% strikeout rate, and high 9.1% walk rate. On a positive note, there really isn’t anything in his advanced pitching data to support the dip in strikeout rate and increase in SIERA so it should only be a matter of time before Archer begins to experience some positive regression in those categories. One potential trouble spot is the dip in his groundball rate (37.8% GB%) from a career 46.2% rate that is correlated with a career-high 38.4% hard hit rate, though the sample size is still too minuscule to place too much stock in the hard contact issues. With the plethora of solid pitching options available on Friday’s slate, it’s entirely possible that Archer goes overlooked by the masses given his mediocre start to the 2017 campaign, but if we factor in historical data and performance, he ranks near the top of the list at home against a Toronto squad that ranks 9th in strikeouts, 24th in ISO and 27th in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Add that to the fact that Archer has always been a more dominant pitcher at home throughout his career, which has held true once again, with a 27.2% strikeout rate at the Trop opposed to just a 17.9% strikeout rate on the road, and immediately becomes one of the top starting pitching options on the slate for all formats.
As reported by: FanGraphs Some risk in Pittsburgh and Atlanta in Kevin's late update
It looks as if most of this afternoon’s rain is clearing from the north eastern portion of the country where baseball is being played tonight. Kevin has removed the RED from the Milwaukee Cincinnati game, but it sill appears fairly risky at a solid ORANGE with storms in the area. The outlook for St Louis Atlanta has also dampened a bit going to YELLOW/ORANGE, though Kevin is more optimistic that they will get this game in. Baltimore (vs Chicago AL) stands a small chance of seeing a delay as well with wind still projected to be blowing out to left in excess of 10 mph. Read the full report on our Weather page and don’t forget to follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates on this busy night.
Some risk in Pittsburgh and Atlanta in Kevin's late update
It looks as if most of this afternoon’s rain is clearing from the north eastern portion of the country where baseball is being played tonight. Kevin has removed the RED from the Milwaukee Cincinnati game, but it sill appears fairly risky at a solid ORANGE with storms in the area. The outlook for St Louis Atlanta has also dampened a bit going to YELLOW/ORANGE, though Kevin is more optimistic that they will get this game in. Baltimore (vs Chicago AL) stands a small chance of seeing a delay as well with wind still projected to be blowing out to left in excess of 10 mph. Read the full report on our Weather page and don’t forget to follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates on this busy night.
Miguel Sano's suspension appeal took place today, but he won't know fate of that hearing until early next week - He will start tonight
To clear up any potential confusion, Sano’s appeal hearing took place today, but he’s not going to learn the fate of that hearing until early next week, meaning he’s a full go for tonight’s game against the Red Sox. Proceed as normal.
As reported by: Phil Miller