DFS Alerts
Jedd Gyorko (6.83%) projected most likely to homer via RotoGrinders HR Predictor
Chase Anderson is one of the more difficult players to project on tonight’s slate. He has a 10.5 SwStr% and league average strikeout rate with a 2.10 ERA, but estimators much higher due to a 3.2 HR/FB. Making matters a bit more difficult, his change-up is generally his best pitch, making for a reverse split (LHBs .306 wOBA, 28.3 Hard% – RHBs .351 wOBA, 34.5 Hard% since 2015). He’s projected among many other arms tonight via RotoGrinders Player Projections, but should be a better value on DraftKings for just $6.1K, as he’s actually the most expensive FanDuel arm on the slate ($8.4K). It would make some sense that Jedd Gyorko (134 wRC+, .313 ISO vs RHP since last season) has the highest projected HR rate tonight (6.83%) on the RotoGrinders HR Predictor. RHBs have a 14.3 HR/FB against Anderson in his career. The Cardinals are projected for almost four runs on the button (third lowest on the slate), but along with Gyorko, who has been hot (212 wRC+ over the last week), Stephen Piscotty (104 wRC+, .160 ISO vs RHP since last season) hits RHP well with a bump up to second tonight and Chris Carpenter (142 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP since last season) remains a strong option against most RHPs.
As reported by: RotoGrinders HR Predictor Other tagged players: Chase Anderson, Matt Carpenter, Stephen Piscotty
Matt Andriese may project as one of tonight's top values on a slate without standout pitching
Many of tonight’s pitchers are projected fairly similarly with no real standouts. What Matt Andriese has going for him is a fairly low price tag ($7.4K DK/$6.9K FD), which may make him one of the better values tonight. He consistently has had either four of five strikeouts in every start, but with a league average SwStr%. Miami is a slightly below average offense (87 wRC+ vs RHP) in a park that leans slightly pitcher friendly. Andriese has allowed six HRs this season, but has no real platoon split with RHBs hitting him a bit harder than LHBs (36.4% to 32.8%) since 2015. Most of Miami’s better bats present as somewhere around average vs RHP, though Christian Yelich (134 wRC+, .204 ISO) has been solidly above average since last season. There are otherwise no real standouts, though Derek Dietrich (119 wRC+, .147 ISO vs RHP since last season) presents as a top FanDuel value (3.55 Pt/$/K) for the absolute minimum on FanDuel. Inside the dome, this is one of the few games players won’t have to worry about either rain or low temperatures tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Derek Dietrich Red Sox have highest implied run line on the slate (5.2) against late replacement Tyler Wilson
Tyler Wilson is a last minute replacement with a career 5.8 K-BB%, who hasn’t faced more than 17 batters in any appearance at any level this year. Expect to see a lot of the Baltimore bullpen one way or another, as the Red Sox are the only offense projected to score more than five runs tonight. Wilson has actually been a bit worse vs RHBs (.358 wOBA, 11 HRs) during his time in the majors, though LHBs (.330 wOBA, 6 HRs) have hit him well too in a nearly equal number of PAs. Hanley Ramirez (105 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has been one of the hottest bats on the slate (257 wRC+, 50 Hard%, 4 HRs last seven days). Both he and Andrew Benintendi (148 wRC+, .203 ISO vs RHP career) are top bats according to RotoGrinders Player Projections, though this is one of the most stackable lineups on the slate one through eight with perhaps the exception of Jeff Rutledge. The bats are not cheap with a couple exceeding $5K on DraftKings, but there shouldn’t be much issue affording the bats players want to include tonight. Though the skies appear clear tonight, temperatures are only expected to be in the mid-50s in Boston with a 10 mph breeze out towards the Green Monster.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi, Tyler Wilson Straily projects for most Ks on slate (7.6), but half his strikeouts have come in one start
Though Dan Straily has 29 total strikeouts, only 15 came in the four starts where he didn’t face the Padres. Aside from that one great start, his SwStr% has been up and down, though his hard contact rate has been consistently around league average. The biggest thing he has going for him is that the Rays strike out 25.7% of the time vs RHP, placing him in the top spot on the slate in the RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor (7.6), though the RotoGrinders Player Projections don’t see any standout starting pitching options tonight, perhaps making him difficult to value all that highly at the top price on DraftKings ($9.6K). For the Rays, Logan Morrison (111 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the hottest bat in the lineup (248 wRC+, 50 Hard%, 2 HRs last seven days) and should have some value at a low price tonight ($3.3K DK, $2.9K FD), though Corey Dickerson (123 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP since 2015) might be the top bat in the lineup. Straily doesn’t have much of a platoon split and is about league average against batters from either side. Tampa Bay is projected right in the middle of the board tonight with 4.2 implied runs. Though Tampa Bay is a bit of a pitcher’s park, conditions inside the dome are among the best on a five game slate with a bit of uncertainty.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison Ian Kennedy looks to regain his control in elite matchup against the White Sox
Ian Kennedy has been fairly consistent to start his 2017 campaign, allowing three earned runs or less in each of his five outings while flashing double-digit strikeout upside in a previous start against the Los Angeles Angels, a team that is notoriously difficult to punch out consistently. This afternoon Kennedy draws a juicy matchup a White Sox squad that has been atrocious versus right-handed pitching to begin the year. They rank dead last in the Majors with a .265 wOBA and five of their nine starters today strikeout at least 22.7% of the time against righties. While the matchup is great and the strikeout upside is certainly there, Kennedy does carry some risk since he is a fly ball pitcher (48.1% FB%) that typically allows way too much hard contact (36.7% HH%). Add that to the fact he has trouble with walks this season (11.6% BB%), and you get a starting pitcher that can be prone to blowups. Thankfully, home runs and huge innings aren’t too much of a concern against this White Sox lineup that currently possesses a measly 3.5 runs implied team total at the time of this writing. Kennedy remains a slightly above average strikeout pitcher (23.1% K%), and if he can hold the walks in check this afternoon, he could very well be among the top scoring pitchers on the early slate and is in a prime matchup to pivot away from presumably chalkier options like Max Scherzer and John Lackey in tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Todd Frazier scratched from the White Sox lineup; Matt Davidson will start
Frazier is officially a late scratch from the lineup for this afternoon’s matchup between the Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals due to an unspecified reason to this point. In his place, Matt Davidson will now bat seventh and play third base, while Avisail Garcia, Leurys Garcia, and Cody Asche all move up one spot in the order to fourth, fifth, and sixth respectively.
As reported by: Daryl Van Schouwen Other tagged players: Matt Davidson Pirates-Reds game to start in delay
Originally classified ORANGE/YELLOW by RotoGrinders meteorologist Kevin Roth, he has downgraded the game to ORANGE/RED and with the game starting in a delay there is a real concern/risk for postponement. Proceed with players from that game knowing this.
As reported by: Pittsburgh Pirates official Twitter feed
Astros bats offer plenty of power potential in matchup with fly ball RHP, A.J. Griffin
A.J. Griffin is coming off of a fantastic start on the road against the Oakland Athletics his last time out in which he struck out eight and allowed no earned runs in six innings of work. Griffin often gets a bad rap among the DFS community as a below-average starting pitcher, but he is actually much better than typically given credit for, evidenced by his solid career strikeout rate (20.7%) and walk rate (7.1%). His strikeout rate has jumped to 26.7% through three starts this season, but this is likely attributed to the limited sample size since nothing in Griffin’s peripheral metrics implies a valid reason for the uptick in punchouts. Griffin’s primary downfall comes in the home run department where he has traditionally allowed a high fly ball rate (53.8% in 2017) that isn’t helped by a higher than league average hard hit rate. Unfortunately, this makes Griffin a frustrating pitcher to stack against if the BABIP and HR/FB rates go his way, and this is compounded further this afternoon by the fact that this Astros squad can be a frustrating offense to stack given their boom or bust nature. Considering Griffin lacks any pronounced splits over the course of his career, this is a perfect spot to search for some power upside in tournaments with Astros from both sides of the plate. That leads us to three big bats in Carlos Correa (130 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .190 ISO vs RHP since 2016), George Springer (113 wRC+, .336 wOBA, .170 ISO vs RHP since 2016), and Brian McCann (career .201 ISO vs RHP) for tournaments, with Jose Altuve (151 wRC+, .391 wOBA, .183 ISO vs RHP since 2016) and Yulieski Gurriel (135 wRC+, .364 wOBA vs RHP since 2016) being viable in cash games as well.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Brian McCann, Jose Altuve, Yulieski Gurriel, A.J. Griffin Max Scherzer is the definitive top pitching option on both the Early and All Day slates
Max Scherzer is coming off a rough outing his last time out, surrendering two home runs that equated to nearly all five of the earned runs he allowed against the New York Mets in six innings pitched. He’ll take the mound this afternoon at home to take on a dangerous, but strikeout-happy Arizona Diamondbacks squad that features seven hitters (not including the opposing pitcher) that sport strikeout rates north of 20.0% versus right-handed pitching. So, despite ranking fourth in wOBA versus righties this season, it is clear that there is significant upside to be had in this matchup if Scherzer is able to avoid giving up the long ball, which has certainly been a problem for him in recent years. Other than the struggles with home runs, his numbers through five starts align relatively close to his advanced stats from the 2016 season, evidenced by a solid 3.18 SIERA and elite 30.3% strikeout rate. Additionally, Scherzer has done a great job of limiting hard contact this year with an 18.3% hard hit rate, although this is likely a result of an abbreviated sample size since he has basically surrendered near the league average throughout his career. However, if he is able to keep up with the current trend, it should help neutralize his aforementioned home run issues. All in all, it really goes without saying that Scherzer is the definitive top starting pitching option on the Early slate (and it’s not really close), meaning that exposure to Diamondbacks hitters should be minimal. If attempting to go ultra-contrarian, Jake Lamb (129 wRC+, .376 wOBA, .279 ISO since 2016) or Chris Herrmann (.206 ISO since 2016) make the most sense as one-off targets given their power upside and plate skills versus right-handed pitching, though it is tough to ever really argue against rostering Paul Goldschmidt (127 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .187 ISO since 2016) in nearly any matchup as well.
Other tagged players: Jake Lamb, Chris Herrmann, Paul Goldschmidt Kyle Gibson has notched just a 2.8% K-BB% through five starts this season
Kyle Gibson has been atrocious to start the 2017 campaign with just 13 strikeouts and 10 walks in 22 innings pitched that has equated to a gaudy 8.06 ERA and 5.27 SIERA through five starts. Gibson used to be decent at inducing ground balls, but that number has gradually been decreasing each season, culminating this year with just a 47.6% ground ball rate. Given his career 15.5% strikeout rate and 12.2% whiff rate in 2017, a ground ball rate that low just won’t cut it at the Major League level. As far as Gibson’s ground ball splits, he has been decent at keeping the ball on the ground versus right-handed batters (53.8%) but has been relatively inconsistent with those rates in recent years, evidenced by his propensity to keep lefties far more often in the 2016 season. To summarize, essentially hitters from both sides of the plate are firmly in play for all formats on the Early slate and stack is perfectly viable in tournaments as well. Khris Davis (129 wRC+, .356 wOBA) is far and away the top Oakland bat to target given his .295 ISO versus right-handed pitching since last season, while Matt Joyce (141 wRC+, .381 wOBA, .234 ISO in 2016), Ryon Healy (108 wRC+, .325 wOBA, .181 ISO since 2016), Yonder Alonso, and Stephen Vogt (.161 ISO) remain as secondary options that are likely best utilized to round out an Athletics stack in tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Matt Joyce, Ryon Healy, Yonder Alonso, Stephen Vogt, Kyle Gibson Tyler Wilson will start for Baltimore tonight against the Red Sox
Wilson has only pitched out of the bullpen this season for the Orioles and is being recalled from AAA to start after Ubaldo Jiminez had to pitch in relief last night after Kevin Gausman was ejected. The Red Sox bats are top targets in the small five game evening slate – don’t expect Wilson to last long though given he hasn’t started a game all season.
As reported by: David Hall on Twitter Despite the CLE-DET postponement, there are still a couple trouble spots to monitor in the latest MLB weather forecast
The weather picture on the Early slate has already been partially cleared up with the game between the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers already being officially postponed. However, there are still rain situations to monitor in both the Pirates-Reds and Phillies-Cubs games, though the matchup in Cincinnati looks to be at a higher risk of postponement given the current classification of ORANGE/YELLOW. This is the initial weather forecast posted this morning, so things can certainly change in each weather scenario. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians postponed
This game will not play take these players out of your lineups.
Tim Beckham, John Jaso present low cost top of lineup bats in good spots tonight
Marwin Gonzalez bats seventh and is merely a league average bat against RHP, but has a league high 405 wRC+ over the last week with four HRs and Houston has the highest implied run line of the night against Nick Martinez. At just $3K on DK and $2.5K on FD, he should get strong consideration as an alternate bat in stacks as a salary saver with three to four strongly viable $10K pitchers on the mound tonight. John Jaso (119 wRC+, .160 ISO vs RHP since 2015) bats second against Rookie Davis (LHBs .553 wOBA) for just $2.3K on FanDuel, where the biggest obstacle appears to be weather related. Andrew Toles (125 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP career – $3.2 DK/$2.7 FD) is leading off for in the Dodger against Jeff Samardzija (LHBs .355 wOBA since 2015). Tim Beckham (118 wRC+, .168 ISO vs LHP since last season) bats leadoff for $2.9K on either site against Adam Conley (RHBs .316 wOBA since 2015). Batting sixth, FanDuel players have to look at Steve Pearce (139 wRC+, .243 ISO vs LHP since last season) for $2.2K against C.C. Sabathia (RHBs .343 since 2015). Joey Rickard (115 wRC+, .153 ISO vs LHP since last year) does not have a strong matchup against Drew Pomeranz (RHBs .300 wOBA since 2015), but does present a leadoff bat at the absolute minimum on FanDuel. Gorkys Hernandez (not yet confirmed), Carlos Sanchez, and Ben Gamel represent extremely cheap, but below average bats at the top of the lineup tonight.
Other tagged players: John Jaso, Marwin Gonzalez, Steve Pearce, Joey Rickard, Gorkys Hernandez, Yolmer Sanchez, Ben Gamel, Andrew Toles Increased weather risk in Cincinnati (vs Pittsburgh) in Kevin's late update
Increased weather risk in Cincinnati (vs Pittsburgh) seemed to come out of nowhere as it’s gone from GREEN in the morning to YELLOW/ORANGE in the evening update. Kevin still believes the game can be played, but considering it’s a division game, they could be more inclined to play it safe. Regardless, it’s easy enough to move off Taillon in that game, but Rookie Davis appeared a pitcher to target with bats tonight. Rain appears to be clearing out of Kansas City (vs Chicago AL) and should hold off until late or even after the game in Minnesota (vs Oakland) in the only other two games that appear to draw any risk. Players can note that after the last two days, power boosting outward bound winds appear to be less of a thing tonight, except for Yankee Stadium (10-15 mph to right) where LHBs obviously need all the help they can with that short porch.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page