DFS Alerts

Bats From This Game Dominate the Slate

Coors blows the rest of Monday night’s slate out of the water. It features the only two teams above five implied runs with the Padres (6.56) separating themselves by more than a run from the Rockies (5.44). Only three or four more offenses (depending on your site of choice) exceed four and a half implied runs. The obvious result is that players can’t even stack the number of San Diego bats with top 10 projections by PlateIQ tonight. The first four in the San Diego projected lineup are the top four projected bats on the board tonight. Jose Urena held the mighty Dodgers to a single run over 6.2 innings in his first start of the season, despite walking three with just two strikeouts. In fact, he’s walked eight of the 62 batters he’s faced this year with just five walks, which pretty much makes anything else he does irrelevant and relevant is not something Urena has been since 2018 (5.02 FIP, 4.97 xFIP since 2019). Manny Machado (155 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP this year), Jake Cronenworth (99 wRC+, .147 ISO), Trent Grisham (84 wRC+, .136 ISO), Luke Voit (124 wRC+, .237 ISO), Eric Hosmer (89 wRC+, .113 ISO) and Nomar Mazara (111 wRC+, .127 ISO) are all top 10 projected bats tonight.

The only other offense with multiple top 10 projected bats? The Colorado Rockies, of course. Sean Manaea has failed to complete six innings just three times this year. Despite the tendency to pitch deep into games, he’s produced a marginal 15.6 K-BB% with a 4.18 ERA that’s above all estimators, but not by much more than half a run with a 3.63 xERA being the lowest. He’s walked at least three in four of his last five starts. RHBs have a .319 wOBA (.325 xwOBA) against him this season. Kris Bryant (146 wRC+, .222 ISO vs LHP this year) and Connor Joe (136 wRC+, .144 ISO) are your top projected Rockies. In fact, the only top projected bat on both sites, who isn’t playing at Coors tonight is Jose Ramirez (187 wRC+, .329 ISO) against Lance Lynn (LHBs .384 wOBA, .311 xwOBA) in Cleveland.

Top Projected Pitching Values Are More Likely SP2 Types

Brayan Bello failed to impress in his major league debut (also against the Rays), striking out just two of 21 batters with three walks and four runs allowed, although half his contact was on the ground with an 85.9 mph EV. He is the fourth ranked Boston prospect by Fangraphs with a 50 Future Value grade and also the 52nd ranked prospect in all of baseball. After producing a 23.3 K-BB% at AA this season, his stop off at AAA lasted just 51.1 innings (24.4 K-BB%), though the walk rate has been increasing at each level. With 44.4% of his AAA plate appearances being of the non-contact variety, we might have some workload concerns. He’s only improved his stock since a March scouting report heralded his increasing velocity, but also suggested an eventual high leverage reliever role for him, despite a three pitch mix that included a potentially above average slider and changeup. More recent looks suggest a long term rotation role. His low price tag ($6K or less), park upgrade and high upside matchup (Rays 98 wRC+, 24.9 K% vs RHP) makes him the top projected value on either site tonight, though a much tougher roster on a single pitcher site.

The second best projected value on either site is also a difficult roster on a single pitcher one. Despite striking out 11 of the 23 batters he faced over seven innings in his last AAA starts, Spencer Howard returned to the majors to strike out just two of 19 Orioles with as many walks, being pulled after just 68 pitches and four innings. Perhaps two full trips through the order is improvement in his case, but the production really isn’t. He has struck out 14 of 51 batters with four walks, but six of 13 fly balls and five barrels (15.2%) have left the yard, though four were in his first start in Toronto. A matchup against Oakland (70 wRC+, 23.9 K% vs RHP) for less than $6K is great, but who knows what kind of leash he’ll have here?

Alex Cobb is really the only pitcher costing less than Scherzer, who projects as a better value that you’d actually consider using on a single pitcher site, but even he has hit a bit of a wall recently. While Cobb has a 2.79 ERA over his last four starts, he’s only struck out 12 of 81 batters (7.6 SwStr%) over that span. It’s ironic that his ERA is dropping as his estimators are rising. Yet, with a 17.6 K-BB%, 63 GB%, 24.0 Z-O-Swing%, 87.4 mph EV and 4.2% Barrels/BBE, there’s still more than a run and a half gap between his 4.74 ERA and his worst estimator (3.16 DRA). Workload is also a concern, but he completed six innings in his last start and the Diamondbacks own a mere 91 wRC+ and 23.2 K% vs RHP. For $1.2K less, Cobb is also a fine SP2 choice on DraftKings.

Adrian Martinez has struck out just 11 of the 66 batters he’s faced with six barrels (11.8%) and just a 35.3 GB%. On a positive note, he’s walked just two and did have a 26.4 K% over 64 AAA innings this year. He costs less than $7K in Texas (92 wRC+, 23.2 K% vs RHP), but again, we’re talking about another SP2 type. The general gist here is that although your highest priced arms are in difficult spots, you’re still probably paying up for them because there really isn’t much of a middle of the board tonight and the lower priced arms are more SP2 complements than stand on their own types.

Difficult Spots For All of Monday's High Priced Arms

Two pitchers on either a seven or eight game Monday night slate reach the $10K price point on both site, while another does so on FanDuel only and a fourth reaches $9K on both. All of them are in difficult spots. Max Scherzer is the only expensive pitcher on the board and only one to exceed $10K on both sites tonight. He celebrated his return from a month and a half long IL stay by striking out 11 of the 21 Reds he faced. The Braves are certainly a more dynamic offense, but strike out even more (24.7% vs RHP) often in a less hitter friendly park. Scherzer has a 27.6 K-BB%, including a 32.7 K% that tops the board today, through nine starts. He doesn’t generate a lot of ground balls (33.9%), but does generate a lot of popups (eight already) with a low average exit velocity (87.1 mph). Mad Max has gone at least six innings in seven of his nine starts as a Met. While Atlanta isn’t the band box that Cincinnati is, it’s still a hitter friendly park and while the Braves strike out a lot, they’re still a dangerous offense against RHP (107 wRC+, 15.7 HR/FB). They are predominantly right-handed though and Scherzer has a near 100 point standard split by both wOBA and xwOBA this year. With the upside, Scherzer projects as tonight’s top overall arm and a top five point per dollar value on either site. Check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog for potential Scherzer pivots.

Tommy La Stella placed on COVID-19 IL

Tommy La Stella placed on COVID-19 IL

CLE 1B Josh Naylor (back) has been scratched

CLE 1B Josh Naylor (back) has been scratched

The Surprising Stack with the Second Highest Smash Projection

The offenses with the second and third highest team run totals tonight (Dodgers & Yankees) currently project to be more popular stacks than the top team total on the board (Braves), but only just barely with the Dodgers on DraftKings the only stack currently reaching a double digit Own% (projections are fluid and updated throughout the day). The interesting number in the Smash% column is not that the Dodgers lead the way, smashing the slate around 12% of the time in simulations, but that the Arizona Diamondbacks (4.77 team run total) are second. Chad Kuhl has allowed 17 runs over his last 28.1 innings and that includes a three=hit complete game shutout against the Dodgers…at Coors, while much of the damage has been done on the road. His strikeout rate continues to drop and he’s now down to an 8.3 K-BB%. A 3.83 ERA greatly benefits from a 7.6 HR/FB, though he still doesn’t have an estimator below four, even with just 6.5% Barrels/BBE. Projections are really expecting Kuhl’s troubles to continue. The Diamondbacks are also the only stack above a 10.0 Value% on DraftKings tonight and while they’re even slightly higher on FanDuel, Tiger stacks project for the most value (21.64% currently), despite facing one of the top projected pitchers on the board in Lucas Giolito. For more on a couple of unexpected stacks that pop great ratings, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

This LIneup is Loaded with Top Projected Value Against Struggling Pitcher

With some middle of the board pitchers projecting better than some top of the board ones on Friday night, perhaps the need for value bats is not as great, but should that need arise, PlateIQ projections for DraftKings suggest the top three values on the board reside in the Arizona lineup. Chad Kuhl has allowed 17 runs over his last 28.1 innings and that includes a three=hit complete game shutout against the Dodgers…at Coors, while much of the damage has been done on the road. His strikeout rate continues to drop and he’s now down to an 8.3 K-BB%. A 3.83 ERA greatly benefits from a 7.6 HR/FB, though he doesn’t have an estimator below four, even with just 6.5% Barrels/BBE. LHBs have punished him to the tune of a .341 wOBA and .358 xwOBA this season. Alek Thomas (120 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP this year) is the top projected DraftKings value tonight. Right behind him are Geraldo Perdomo (62 wRC+) and Buddy Kennedy (35 wRC+), all below $3K.

The other lineup DraftKings projections suggest you can derive quite a bit of value against is Detroit. This, despite Lucas Giolito being a top projected pitcher and allowing just a single barrel over his last two starts. However, he has been incredibly barrel prone this season (11.1% Barrels/BBE is second highest on the slate) and his velocity has been down over the last month. He continues to own a massive reverse split this year (RHBs .427 wOBA, .396 xwOBA – LHBs .265 wOBA, .289 xwOBA). Detroit bats are cheap. Jeimer Candelario (65 wRC+), Miguel Cabrera (91 wRC+) and Willi Castro (90 wRC+) all cost $2.5K. Not too far behind them, but costing just slight more ($2.6K) and outside the top 10 projected values, is the only batter in the Detroit projected lineup above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year: Riley Greene (121).

In addition to Alek Thomas and Josh Rojas (104 wRC+, .148 ISO) for less than $3K, PlateIQ projections for FanDuel suggest you can find some of the best value in a couple of the top lineups, combining top of the board bats with top of the board values in both the Yankee and Dodger lineups. Joey Gallo (108 wRC+, .208 ISO) and Josh Donaldson (110 wRC+, .158 ISO) cost $2.5K or less against Connor Seabold, making his first Fenway start of the year with less than favorable weather and umpiring conditions. Max Muncy (93 wRC+, .145 ISO) doubles as a top projected bat and value for less than $3K against Keegan Thompson. Jake Lamb (137 wRC+, .231 ISO) has been smoking RHP in his stay in L.A. and costs just $2.2K.

The Two Offenses Loaded with Top Projected Bats

On a 14 game Friday night slate, we find the Braves topping the board with a 5.68 implied run line in Atlanta against Eric Fedde, separating themselves from the rest of the board by nearly half a run with two more teams reaching a five run team total, but only four more above four and a half runs despite the sizable slate and lackluster top of the board pitching. What this suggests is that while the board isn’t loaded with Aces, pitching is good enough while there aren’t many outstanding parks or hitter friendly conditions (though there are a few, like Fenway). With his team topping the board, Ronald Acuna (113 wRC+, .128 ISO vs RHP this year) is the top projected bat on the board, but without being joined by any of his teammates among the top 10 tonight, although Eddie Rosario is the only batter in the projected lineup below a 110 vs RHP this year and batters from either side of the plate above a .330 xwOBA against Fedde this year.

PlateIQ projections are dominated by three Yankees near the top of the board tonight in Fenway. It’s a hitter friendly park with hitter friendly weather and umpiring with the Yankees holding the second highest team run total on the board (5.26) against Connor Seabold, who has struck out 11 of 44 Blue Jays and Cubs with an even more impressive 16.3 SwStr%. Toronto did pop him for three long balls, but those are the only three barrels he’s allowed, while dropping his average exit velocity to 83.9 mph in Chicago. This will be his first home start. Seabhold had an 18.0 K-BB% at AAA (51.2 IP). Aaron Judge (190 wRC+, .344 ISO) and Anthony Rizzo (145 wRC+, .293 ISO) were both a bit too banged up to play last night and their continued absence would certainly alter the top projections, but Giancarlo Stanton (138 wRC+, .288 ISO) should be in there. All three are top six projected bats on either site.

The Dodgers are third on the board at 5.07 implied runs and they also feature three top of the board projected bats. Before striking out and walking three Red Sox in his last start, Keegan Thompson had struck out 24 of his previous 72 batters with several articles noting his revamped pitch mix that now included a slider, but it was still four-seam/cutter two-thirds of the time. The truth is that he’s been fine since being inserted into the rotation (14.1 K-BB%), though those high strikeout performances have come against the Pirates, Cubs and Braves, three of the more strikeout prone offenses in the league. Fine (estimators ranging from a 3.69 xERA to a 4.13 xFIP) is probably what he is, though he’s likely to have a tougher time with the Dodgers. Thompson has a reverse split. RHBs have a .329 wOBA (.357 xwOBA) against him this year, while LHBs have a .294 wOBA (.265 xwOBA). None the less, Freddie Freeman (145 wRC+, .191 ISO) is the top projected Dodger bat, followed by Mookie Betts (155 wRC+, .297 ISO) and Max Muncy (93 wRC+, .145 ISO).

Embrace the Pitcher Volatility Tonight

Filter PlateIQ pitching projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) for P/$ for either site tonight and you are not going to find a pitcher costing $9K or more anywhere near the top. All three of the projecting for more than 4.0 P/$ on FanDuel are below $9K and all five above 2.1 P/$ on DraftKings are less than $8K. That’s not only due to a lackluster top of the board, but a lot of volatility in the middle. Volatility means instability and is not something most people want a lot of in their lives, but it can also mean good things as in pitcher upside today and that’s great for GPPs. Let’s start with Lucas Giolito, who’s actually the top projected pitcher on the board and a top two projected value on either site. Has he finally solved his home run problem? Giolito’s only allowed a single barrel over his last two starts and it’s not an issue he’s had since breaking out in 2019. He had allowed 13 barrels (14.6%) over his previous five starts with nine of them leaving the yard and a 92.5 mph EV. It looks like he’s increasing his slider usage (30%) and reducing his fastball usage even further (around 40%) most recently. Despite the two homerless starts, his velocity is really down over the last month too. This is a tough one because you have a pitcher with a 27.3 K%, who has had unprecedented contact profile issues this season (major contact profile issues), but now has back to back Quality Starts without a home run, but continued reduced velocity. The answer tonight may be to embrace the volatility in a great matchup. The Tigers seem to get themselves out (72 wRC+, 24 K%, 7.6 HR/FB vs RHP). All Giolito may need to do is be there. On last word of caution that there may be some hitter friendly weather and umpiring in an already power friendly park. Giolito is not the only volatile middle of the board pitcher with tremendous upside tonight. For more on potentially GPP winning arms, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Lackluster Top of the Board Pitching Starts at the Very Top

Friday night’s slate is just a single game short of the full 15, but features just three $10K pitches and only two more in the $9K range on both sites and considering some of the hitter friendly weather around the league tonight, at least a couple of them may be over-priced. The most expensive arm on the board and only one exceeding $10K on both sites is Nestor Cortes, who has a 4.68 ERA that matches his 4.61 FIP with a 22.3 K% that’s more befitting his 11.8 SwStr% over his last five starts without facing more than 22 batters in any of them. He’s actually increased his season SwStr% over this span, but did have a really good one last time out in Cleveland, striking out six with a single run allowed (his only Quality Start in his last five). We’ve been waiting for some heavy regression all season, not just in his ERA, but in his strikeout rate. A .243 BABIP and 87.1 LOB% suggest he still has a bit to go on the former front, while a now 2.61 K/SwStr illustrates that he’s nearly there on the latter. Considering not only all of the above, but a difficult matchup (Red Sox 118 wRC+, 21.8 K% vs LHP) in a very difficult park (Fenway) with hitter friend weather and umpiring, this looks like a disaster in waiting. Cortes projects outside the top seven on either site and his only real value here is that baseball is so unpredictable and his ownership should be nearly non-existent at his current price in this particular spot.

Zack Wheeler is the only other pitcher to exceed $10K on either site, which he does by $200 on FanDuel. He has just two non-Quality Start blips over his last 12 starts and simply continues to be one of the best pitchers in the league. Maybe not the top of the top tier, but he does everything well above average, from a 27.9 K% to a 5.6 BB% with a great contact profile (86.2 mph EV, 5.7% Barrels/BBE), while pitching deep into games. Non-FIP estimators (6.6 HR/FB) range barely from a 2.75 xERA to a 3.09 SIERA. Difficult matchup (Cardinals 104 wRC+, 20.7 K% vs RHP), but a predominantly right-handed lineup (.254 xwOBA against Wheeler this year) and a significant park upgrade without any weather hindrance or an umpiring assignment yet. Wheeler is a top three projected arm, but just a marginal value on either site. If you’re looking for a steady pitcher with a high floor (non-GPPs), he’s your guy.

Charlie Morton is exactly $10K on FanDuel, but $800 less on DraftKings and has allowed just four runs over his last 26.2 innings. He has a 35.7 K% (29.2 K-BB%) over his last six starts. Although he’s still generating less than 40% of his contact on the ground, which is new a career low, this is a completely different pitcher than we saw the first couple of months of the season. Even with some leftover stink, all season estimators are now below four with this run, nearly half a run or more below his 4.34 ERA. Atlanta is a hitter friendly park and the Nationals don’t strike out a ton (19.9 K% vs RHP), but really don’t pack much of a punch either (96 wRC+ vs RHP). Morton projects fifth best on FanDuel, sixth on DraftKings, also with marginal value, but projections may be under-shooting him in this case. He’s a strong GPP choice should his ownership projections remain low.

Sonny Gray costs more than $9K on either site, but has struck out just 15 of 86 batters with an 8.7 SwStr% since returning from the IL with his velocity bouncing up and down from start to start. However, he’s also walked just four and now has the best walk rate of his career (6.4%). Also a career low by quite a bit is his 43.6 GB%, though he’s still only allowing 6.0% Barrels/BBE. All estimators are well above his 2.47 ERA with a 2.94 xERA the only one below three. More contact neutral ones hover around three and a half. The Rangers have just a 92 wRC+ with a 23.4 K% vs RHP and with the roof closed, it’s a pitcher’s park in Texas. While Gray projects as a top five DraftKings arm, a lack of consistently strong workloads pushes him towards the end of the top 10 on FanDuel. The upside doesn’t seem to be there right now though.

Tyler Anderson is the last pitcher to reach $9K on both sites. He has struck out exactly two in three of his five starts, but has Quality Starts with a combined 14 strikeouts in his other two. The strikeouts have been inconsistent, but what Tyler Anderson has done is walk very few batters (4.4%) with a lot of weak contact (86.2 mph EV, 6.1% Barrels/BBE, 31.7% 95+ mph) by leaning on his changeup more often this year. He’s completed six innings in eight of his last 10 starts with estimators ranging from a 3.25 xERA to a 4.20 DRA, depending on how much you buy into the contact profile being sustainable. At home, against the Cubs (104 wRC+, 23.5 K% vs LHP), he projects near the bottom half of the top 10, but could be an interesting GPP choice with low enough ownership. However, it seems clear that the middle of the board is going to be more interesting than the top of a lackluster top of the board tonight.

Lineup update: Anthony Banda will open for the Blue Jays on Thursday

Lineup update: Anthony Banda will open for the Blue Jays on Thursday

Lineup update: Jeff Hoffman will start Game 2 for the Reds on Thursday

Lineup update: Jeff Hoffman will start Game 2 for the Reds on Thursday

The Surprising Stack with the Top Smash%

With more than half the board above four and a half implied runs, but a couple of offenses somewhat separating from the rest of the board above five, current projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) suggest there’s no clear consensus where players will turn on either a nine or 10 game slate. The two Los Angeles teams are the only stacks above a 10% ownership projection on FanDuel right now with both featuring top of the board bats, alongside lower priced values. DraftKings projections suggest players may opt to favor Arizona stacks slightly more than any other (but it’s close) with some cheap bats atop the projected lineup against Austin Gomber, who has struggled, as each of his secondary pitches (slider, changeup, curveball) have declined in velocity and whiff rate this year. The Smash% column is where the biggest surprise comes from because the Blue Jays win early simulations with a rate around 15% against Marco Gonzales in Seattle, despite a 4.64 run team total that merely places them in the middle of the board tonight. Never the less, both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (154 wRC+, .253 ISO vs LHP since LY) and George Springer (130 wRC+, .224 ISO) project as top of the board bats against a pitcher who’s .243 BABIP and 84.1 LOB% are almost sure to regress heavily. On either site, the Diamondbacks currently project as the overwhelming top value stack. The currently projected lineup only features two bats above $3K on either site for a team with a 4.75 implied run line. How will Arizona’s high projected ownership affect their team rating and which stack projects a better Leverage Rating than Toronto? Check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

Several Offenses Project Both Top Bats and Values

If you’re considering adding two of the top three projected bats on the board in Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani to your lineups tonight, the good news is that there are also a pair of Angels projecting as top of the board values on either site, making this stack a lot easier. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .335 wOBA against Jordan Lyles since last season and the Orioles give him such a long leash, while the Angels strike out so much that you may consider using him in lineups where you’re not stacking against him on DraftKings. However, Brandon Marsh (91 wRC+, .142 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Andrew Velazquez (35 wRC+) both cost the minimum there. You probably aren’t considering using Lyles on a single pitcher site like FanDuel, where Jonathan Villar (95 wRC+, .167 ISO) costs just $2.2K and Trout (181 wRC+, .374 ISO) projects so well, that he’s a top 10 value even at $3.8K.

FanDuel projections also suggest filling out your Dodger stack starting with top of the board bats Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman by adding top projected values Max Muncy (122 wRC+, .236 ISO) and Jake Lamb (99 wRC+, .203 ISO) for less than $3K against Mark Leiter (batters from either side of the plate within eight points of a .330 xwOBA since 2021). FD projections also suggest Joey Gallo (120 wRC+, .255 ISO) and Josh Donaldson (109 wRC+, .173 ISO) have tremendous value for $2.5K or less in Boston against Josh Winckowski (batters from either side between a .290 and .315 wOBA and xwOBA). The weather forecast for Fenway is only expected to enhances it’s hitter friendliness.

Both sites project a ton of value in the Arizona lineup, including Jordan Luplow (110 wRC+, .279 ISO vs LHP since last season) currently running the top point per dollar projection on either site against Austin Gomber (RHBs .349 wOBA, .340 xwOBA since 2021). Cooper Hummel (65 wRC+, .153 ISO) is also a top five projected value within $100 of $2.5K on either site. Carson Kelly (130 wRC+, .239 ISO) costs $2.3K on either site. Lastly, only available on DraftKings, PlateIQ projections foresee top 10 value in Michael Chavis and Yoshi Tsutsugo for less than $3K against a terrible Cincinnati bullpen (6.09 FIP last 30 days) in a tremendously hitter friendly park.

Several Pairs of Teammates Projecting as Top of the Board Bats Tonight

Either a nine or 10 game slate (FD omitting second game of double-header in Cincinnati) features a bit of separation atop the board with one caveat. That being that the Reds have not yet named a game two pitcher, so there is not currently a reliable line on that game. We will proceed accordingly, but a reminder to check in on projections and see where all that fits in later. Currently, the Braves sit atop the board at 5.9 implied runs, facing the talented, but still developing Matthew Liberatore at home. They are nearly a half run ahead of the Dodgers, who are nearly a half run ahead of the Yankees, as the only three teams exceeding five implied runs tonight. Again, that could change with Pittsburgh/Cincinnati coming on board as the pitching in that game is likely to be subpar, which we already know about Bryse Wilson. Seven more teams reach the four and half run team total mark tonight, making it more than half the board. What we currently see are more Dodgers atop the board in terms of PlateIQ projections, though several teams put a pair of bats in the top 10. It’s essentially a lineup of the top hitters in the league without particular matchups generating anyone we wouldn’t expect to normally be up there.

Mark Leiter has struck out 15 of 50 batters faced out of the bullpen since returning to the majors in late June, but just seven of 45 in three April starts. He threw 57 pitches last time out and should be stretched out for about five innings here and now has a fairly impressive 24.8 K% with a 51.3 GB% on the season, but he’s also walked 10.4% and probably won’t hold that strikeout rate in a starting role. Leiter has a sizeable reverse split with RHBs owning a .348 wOBA against him (LHBs .255), though Statcast closes that gap significantly to .338 and .323 xwOBAs, still in favor of RHBs, just slightly now. Projections…well…project Mookie Betts (136 wRC+, .240 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Trea Turner (127 wRC+, .171 ISO) and Freddie Freeman (148 wRC+, .209 ISO) to do some work against him.

Mike Trout (181 wRC+, .374 ISO) and Shohei Ohtani (152 wRC+, .304 ISO) both project as top three bats against Jordan Lyles in Baltimore. The Orioles allow Lyles to pitch deep into games and he hasn’t been horrible (11.9 K-BB%), though he has allowed 10.1% Barrels/BBE and been a bit fortunate that only 12 of 31 have left the yard. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .335 wOBA against him since last season. The Angels present an interesting dynamic this year where they offer a stars and scrubs lineup, smash or crash, where they strikeout so often and have so many outs in the lower half that you can often stack their top bats, while also benefit by utilizing the same pitcher against them. This may be one of those cases.

Ronald Acuna Jr. (169 wRC+, .299 ISO vs LHP since LY) is also a top three projected bat and is joined in the top 10 by Matt Olson (142 wRC+, .282 ISO). Liberatore may one day become the All-Star pitcher that scouting reports suggest he has the talent to be, but for now he’s just a guy with a 7.2 K-BB%, 29.4 GB% and 14% Barrels/BBE through his first five starts. More than half his contact (52.6%) has been hard hit (95+ mph EV) and all estimators exceed five. He does have two starts of five shutout innings each, both at home (Pirates, Brewers), but has been wrecked in three road starts (13 runs in 10.2 innings). RHBs exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him, but LHBs have hit him well too (.331 wOBA, .346 xwOBA) and Olson crushes same-handed pitching.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (154 wRC+, .253 ISO) and George Springer (130 wRC+, .224 ISO) are the last pair of top projected teammates. Since being hit on the wrist by a comebacker at the end of April, Marco Gonzales has compiled nine Quality Starts in 12 attempts, including four straight and he’s done this with just a 2.3 K-BB%. While Gonzales has managed contact fairly well over this span (6.9% Barrels/BBE, 87.1 mph EV), it’s a .243 BABIP and 84.1 LOB% that bear responsibility for a 3.18 ERA with estimators two runs higher. In fact, he doesn’t have an estimator below a 4.75 xERA on the season. RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within three points of .330 against him since last season. It may be a pitcher friendly park, but PlateIQ projections don’t expect Gonzales to continue his magic tricks against the Jays tonight.