DFS Alerts

Where to Find the Value in Tonight's Top Lineups

The second game of the Cleveland/Detroit double-header is only available on DraftKings tonight, but according to early PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change), this game is loaded with value bats. In fact, eight of the top 10 projected point per dollar value bats are from this game, where Konnor Pilkington will be facing Alex Faedo. struck out 18 of 61 batters over his first three starts, but just nine of 66 over his last three. Considering the 12.4 BB% and 13.8% Barrels/BBE, he’s going to need those strikeouts. With just two of 13 barrels leaving the yard, he’s generated a 5.4 HR/FB and 3.73 FIP that’s his only estimator not more than one-quarter of a run above his 4.31 ERA. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .360 xwOBA against him, even if he does have a reverse actual split (LHBs .406 wOBA). At the bottom of the Cleveland projected order, Ernie Clement and Myles Straw cost $2.3K or less.

Just when it looked like Faedo was starting to miss bats and generate strikeouts at a league average rate, not only has he struck out just six of his last 42 batters (7.7 SwStr%) in Arizona and Boston, but he’s also now allowed 15 runs (14 earned) over his last 11.1 innings (three starts). He’s allowed eight barrels (18.2%) on a 92.8 mph EV and just a 29.5 GB% over this span. He’s now made 10 starts with just an 18.3 K% and not a single estimator below four and a half. Batters from either side of the plate own at least a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Spencer Torkelson, Jeimer Candelario, Riley Greene, Robbie Grossman, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Reyes all cost $2.6K or less on DraftKings.

FanDuel projections suggest we can find some value in some of the top offenses tonight. Both the Dodgers and Mets are top three offenses with team run totals above five tonight and both feature multiple top of the board projected bats. They also both feature a pair of top projected FanDuel values. While Max Muncy (132 wRC+, .253 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and Will Smith (119 wRC+, .199 ISO) pull double duty as top projected FD bats and values against Kyle Freeland (batters from either side of the plate above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA since LY) and are essential parts of any Dodger stack tonight, Brandon Nimmo (126 wRC+, .148 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Dominic Smith (150 wRC+ last 30 days) can help fill out your Mets stacks for less than $3K with the top projected bats of Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso. LHBs have been about average against Hunter Greene (.312 wOBA, .307 xwOBA).

The only other lineup to feature multiple top 10 projected values on FanDuel is the San Francisco Giants, only available on FD. Austin Slater (136 wRC+, .225 ISO) and Darin Ruf (151 wRC+, .267 ISO) are explosive platoon bats, who do carry some pinch hit risk, but cost just $2.6K against Madison Bumbarner (RHBs .328 wOBA, .339 xwOBA since last year).

It May Not Be Coors, But This Offense Still Dominates Projections

Each of the three offenses above five implied runs are available on both FanDuel and DraftKings tonight, while three of the four additional offenses above four and a half are also, as well. No matter which site you’re playing on, the Dodgers are the top offense on the board and only one reaching a five and a half run team total, though without much separation from the rest of the board. Regardless, Dodger bats dominate the PlateIQ projections tonight (which are fluid and subject to change). It’s almost as if they were playing at Coors again. They aren’t, but they’re still facing the Rockies and Kyle Freeland, who has faced at least 26 batters in seven of his last nine starts, but it’s perplexing as to why, considering he owns a 4.53 ERA with estimators even higher over this span. He’s somehow accumulate six Quality Starts during this run with just a 6.4 K-BB%, partially because just six of 16 barrels (8.0 HR/FB, 8.8% Barrels/BBE) have left the yard. His 4.31 season ERA is below all estimators and at least four-tenths of a run below all non-FIP estimators. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Freeland since last season. Mookie Betts (143 wRC+, .336 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and Trea Turner (178 wRC+, .273 ISO) are the top two projected bats on the board. Fredde Freeman (116 wRC+, .170 ISO), Max Muncy (132 wRC+, .253 ISO) and Will Smith (119 wRC+, .199 ISO) are all top 10 projected batters as well. Without any DraftKings pitcher costing more than $9.3K tonight, Dodger stacks may be affordable too.

The New York Mets, with a 5.36 run team total that is third best on the board, are the only other offense featuring multiple top 10 projected bats tonight. Hunter Greene can miss lots of bats (28.9 K%, 13.2 SwStr%), but has also allowed at least three runs in fewer than six innings in nine of his 15 starts. In fact, he’s only completed six innings three times (allowing a total of five hits in those starts). A 9.9 BB% with 10.8% Barrels/BBE is a scary combination. It’s probably a Cincinnati problem that 20 of his 21 barrels have left the yard, generating a 5.54 FIP (19.2 HR/FB), but a 3.76 SIERA is still his only estimator below four. The Great American Smallpark is a massive upgrade for Mets’ bats and Greene has exhibited a reverse split thus far (RHBs .384 wOBA, .354 xwOBA), while LHBs have been about average against him (.312 wOBA, .307 xwOBA). Pete Alonso (141 wRC+, .247 ISO) is a top five projected bat on either site tonight, joined by Francisco Lindor (110 wRC+, .188 ISO) among the top 10.

Top Projected Value Has Re-Entered the Circle of Trust with Improved Performance

Despite the differences between sites tonight in start times and games offered, PlateIQ projections for DraftKings (which are fluid and subject to change) feature four pitchers above 2.0 P/$, while FanDuel projections feature just one more arm (five) above 3.0 P/$. On FanDuel, three of these pitchers cost at least $10K, but sandwiched in the middle is Julio Urias at $9.5K. With increased velocity and a 33.7 K% over his last four starts, which includes Coors, the Guardians, Braves and Giants, Urias has re-entered the Circle of Trust. The downside is that the Dodgers have not let him go beyond six innings in any start, though he’s been between 87 and 94 pitches in his each of his last seven starts after not having reached that limit in any of his first eight. The control (6.2 BB%) and contact profile (86.6 mph EV, 27.3% 95+ mph EV) were never things we had to worry about. As such, his 2.99 ERA is closest to a his 2.64 ERA with all additional estimators more than a run separated from actual results. However, estimators over the last month are much closer to three than four. Problematically, the Rockies have been very good against LHP this year (115 wRC+, 18.8 K%), though Urias is a top five projected arm on either site (top three on DraftKings). In addition to being the third best projected value on FanDuel, he’s the fourth best projected value on DraftKings at just $8.3K.

Madison Bumgarner has gone beyond five innings in just one of his last five starts, but has seen a velocity spike in recent efforts. Unfortunately, it hasn’t led to an increase in strikeouts. Down to just a 16.5 K% (7.9 SwStr%), the difference between a 3.63 ERA and estimators all more than a full run higher is simply that seven of 39 runs have been unearned. Bumgarner’s 45.4% hard hit rate (95+ mph EV) is worst on the board. The Giants have a 104 wRC+, but 23.7 K% vs LHP. Costing just $7.2K on the only site where he is available, Bumgarner is essentially tied with Urias as the third best projected value tonight, though he’s a difficult pitcher to trust, considering the lack of upside he’s shown this year.

Aside from Urias and a couple of $9K arms projecting as the top three DraftKings values, the only other arm above a 2.0 P/$ DK projection is Konnor Pilkington. He struck out 18 of 61 batters over his first three starts, but just nine of 66 over his last three. Considering the 12.4 BB% and 13.8% Barrels/BBE, he’s going to need those strikeouts. With just two of 13 barrels leaving the yard, he’s generated a 5.4 HR/FB and 3.73 FIP that’s his only estimator not more than one-quarter of a run above his 4.31 ERA. While Detroit has been better against LHP (99 wRC+, 22.7 K%, 6.4 HR/FB), they haven’t been good. Perhaps this is the matchup that gets Pilkington back on track, but at $6.0K, it’s a small risk to take in your SP2 spot, especially considering the rest of the arms in that price range (Alex Faedo opposing Pilkington, Dakota Hudson in Atlanta, Dylan Bundy in Chicago and Kyle Freeland in Los Angeles).

One of Several Top of the Board Arms in Great Spots on Monday

DraftKings and FanDuel each feature seven game main slates with an early start on this holiday, but not the same seven games at the same start times. FanDuel will go a full hour earlier with the Giants at Diamondbacks, but omit the second game of the double header in Detroit, which is included on the DraftKings slate, starting a half hour later. DraftKings doesn’t feature any $10K pitchers tonight, while FanDuel has four. PlateIQ projections, which are fluid and subject to change, foresee an essential tie atop the board. One of those pitchers being Alek Manoah, the most expensive arm on either site, though $1.7K less on DraftKings. It may not be the strikeout rate we were hoping for (22.7%), but Manoah has failed to produce a Quality Start just twice this season and accumulating large enough strikeout totals by consistently pitching deep into games with excellent control (5.1 BB%) and contact management (86.8 mph EV, 3.8% Barrels/BBE, 25.9% 95+ mph EV). That contact profile generates a 2.80 xERA that’s his only estimator within a run of a 2.09 ERA (.253 BABIP, 81.4 LOB%, 6.7 HR/FB), but all are below four. It’s certainly the matchup and park you’re looking for in Oakland (A’s 68 wRC+, 4.8 HR/FB at home, 73 wRC+, 24 K%, 7.9 HR/FB vs RHP). Manoah is also a top five projected value on either site. To find out which pitchers project similarly to Manoah tonight, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Jonathan India scratched Sunday

Jonathan India scratched Sunday

Thairo Estrada (illness) scratched Saturday

Thairo Estrada (illness) scratched Saturday

Ryan Jeffers (thumb) scratched Saturday

Ryan Jeffers (thumb) scratched Saturday

Yankees-Guardians postponed Friday due to rain

Game update: Yankees-Guardians postponed Friday due to rain

The start of Yankees-Guardians will be delayed Friday due to rain

Game update: The start of Yankees-Guardians will be delayed Friday due to rain

It May Be Difficult to Get Away From this Affordable Stack Tonight

While the Rockies actually have the top implied run line on a 10 game slate (5.88), it’s actually six teams that separate themselves from the rest of the board at 4.9 run team totals or higher. Colorado stacks are not currently projected to be most popular tonight (PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change). Teams just below them, the Diamondbacks and Twins, with a combination of attractive and cheap bats, might be the more popular stacks tonight. These are also the two stacks that smash the slate most often in simulations, around 15-16% of the time with no other team carrying a double digit Smash% at this point in time. Arizona stacks are simply too affordable as well, especially on FanDuel. They are the top value stack on either site, but with more separation from the rest of the board on FD than DK. When an offense projects at the top of the board for the triple crown (Own%, Smash%, Value%) it often means they are going to go over-owned and don’t project a great Leverage Rating. To find out if that’s the case here, check out tonight’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Top Offenses Also Loaded with Value on Friday Night

Arizona bats are not priced up for Coors on FanDuel. In addition to carrying several top of the board projected bats, four of the top five projected values on FanDuel are Diamondbacks, including the only two to project above 5.0 P/$ tonight. Antonio Senzatela has just a 9.8 K% over eight home starts this year. With a modest 44.3 GB% and 90.5 mph EV, Senzatela has allowed just 11 barrels (5.1%) with just four leaving the yard (6.9 HR/FB). Neither of those things seems very sustainable. While a .399 BABIP may regress the power numbers against him should increase. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .332 and .349 wOBA and xwOBA against Senzatela this year. Alek Thomas (119 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP since LY) is not only one of the top projected bats on the board, but top projected FD value. David Peralta (103 wRC+, .172 ISO), Ketel Marte (112 wRC+, .159 ISO) and Josh Rojas (95 wRC+, .142 ISO) all cost less than $3K as well. In fact, the entire projected Arizona lineup costs $3.1K or less. DraftKings makes it a bit tougher with their top projected Arizona values near the bottom of the lineup in Buddy Kennedy (34 wRC+), who is the top projected DK value at $2.2K, and Carson Kelly (49 wRC+) at $2.1K.

The Minnesota Twins also combine top projected bats with top projected values tonight. Over 35 innings, Spenser Watkins has just a 1.3 K-BB%, 90.1 Z-Contact%, 90.6 mph EV and 9.7% Barrels/BBE. He hasn’t gone beyond the fifth inning in any of nine starts without an estimator below five and a half. LHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season, while RHBs are above .400. Stacks can combine the top projected bat on the board in Byron Buxton (154 wRC+, .342 ISO) with a top projected value on either site for less than $2.5K in Nick Gordon (93 wRC+, .150 ISO) in a wrap-around stack. Ryan Jeffers (65 wRC+, .173 ISO) costs less than $2.5K on DraftKings. Gary Sanchez (101 wRC+, .211 ISO) and Max Kepler (116 wRC+, .215 ISO) cost less than $3K on FanDuel.

Carlos Santana (78 wRC+) and Abraham Toro (85 wRC+, .181 ISO) both project as top 10 values on FanDuel for less than $2.5K against James Kaprielian (LHBs .375 wOBA, .388 xwOBA since 2021), while Stephen Piscotty (105 wRC+) and Nick Allen (143 wRC+, .294 ISO) project as a pair of top DraftKings values on the other side of this matchup against Marco Gonzales (RHBs .328 wOBA, .333 xwOBA since last season). A trio of Tigers also project as top 10 DK values against Brad Keller (batters from either side between a .339 and .369 wOBA and xwOBA since LY). Victor Reyes (78 wRC+), Riley Greene (130 wRC+) and Spencer Torkelson (69 wRC+) all cost less than $2.5K.

These Two Offenses Projected to Crush Great Spots

Friday night’s six game slate features six offenses separating themselves from the rest of the board at 4.9 implied runs or more with no other offense the 4.5 run team total barrier. This slate features a game at Coors and Spenser Watkins, whom it is like a game at Coors when facing. While the Rockies actually top the board at 5.88 implied runs, PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change) aren’t as smitten with the home team as they are the road team in this affair (Diamondbacks 5.62). Three Arizona hitters project as top 10 bats on either site tonight. Antonio Senzatela has just a 9.8 K% over eight home starts this year. With a modest 44.3 GB% and 90.5 mph EV, Senzatela has allowed just 11 barrels (5.1%) with just four leaving the yard (6.9 HR/FB). Neither of those things seems very sustainable. While a .399 BABIP may regress the power numbers against him should increase. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .332 and .349 wOBA and xwOBA against Senzatela this year. Ketel Marte (112 wRC+, .159 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Alek Thomas (119 wRC+, .206 ISO) and Christian Walker (91 wRC+, .203 ISO) are all top of the board projected bats tonight.

That’s not the only offense current projections love though, as we also find three Twins (5.47) among the top 10. Byron Buxton (154 wRC+, .342 ISO) is the top projected bat on the board. Over 35 innings, Spenser Watkins has just a 1.3 K-BB%, 90.1 Z-Contact%, 90.6 mph EV and 9.7% Barrels/BBE. He hasn’t gone beyond the fifth inning in any of nine starts without an estimator below five and a half. LHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season, while RHBs are above .400. Buxton is joined atop the projections by Carlos Correa (135 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Jorge Polanco (126 wRC+, .225 ISO). Top of the board projections fill out merely with three AL MVP candidates in Aaron Judge, Mike Trout and Yordan Alvarez.

This Matchup May Contain Two Most Under-Valued Pitchers on the Board

The top of the board gives you plenty to think about tonight. Great pitchers in a great spots, highly volatile ones in highly volatile spots and also weather, but the middle of the board offers some value too. Alex Cobb has struck out just six of 36 batters (Reds & Pirates) since his latest return from the IL, but a 5.48 ERA is quite humorous (though not to him) in combination with a 19.5 K-BB%, 62.3 GB%, 87.1 mph EV and 2.3% Barrels/BBE. Five of his three barrels have left the yard. No, that does not make any sense on any level, but that’s the point. Non-FIP estimators (17.9 HR/FB) range from a 2.33 xERA to a 3.05 DRA. The legitimate downside here is that he’s only completed six innings this season, partially because he keeps getting injured and has to build back up. The White Sox have been poor (89 wRC+, 7.4 HR/FB), but contact prone (20.4 K%) against RHP this year. Even with the workload concern, Cobb is the only pitcher to project above 4.0 P/$ on FanDuel currently, costing just $7.6K. He projects as just the eighth best value, but still viable, at $8.3K on DraftKings.

Opposing Cobb, Lance Lynn struck out a season high eight of 29 Orioles with his velocity a tick higher than his first two starts. He’s now struck out 17 of 73 batters with a 15.2 SwStr% and just three walks. With three of his four barrels (7.8%) leaving the yard, along with a .354 BABIP and 52.9 LOB%, his 6.19 ERA is more than a run above all estimators, ranging widely from a 3.32 SIERA & xFIP to a 5.08 xERA in a small sample, but his latest effort should produce more optimism than concern, despite the ugly final line. Should the underlying numbers stabilize where they are, and they’re just about at stabilization points, it would point to Lynn being back to his standard form and running a price tag we won’t see him at for much longer. The Giants have a 107 wRC+ and 22.6 K% vs RHP, but Lynn projects as a top five value on either site for less than $8K.

Do not despair at Blake Snell’s surprisingly low 24.4 K%, as his 13.4 SwStr% is higher than last year and right in line with his career rate (13.6%). The walks are still a major problem (12.2%), allowing him to only complete six innings twice in seven starts, but the 5.60 ERA is a product of his 58.6 LOB%. Estimators range from a 3.78 FIP to a 4.34 xFIP and would drop even lower with an increase in strikeouts. Snell does not project particularly well against the Dodgers (106 wRC+, 22.2 K% vs LHP), but is a reasonable GPP risk in the $8K range.

Considering those who may play well in an SP2 spot on DraftKings, Brad Keller may have pitched his way out of some rotations by now, but not the Royals, despite a career low 15.3 K% without much improvement in any other area. Despite a solid walk rate (7.8%) and nearly half of his contact on the ground (49.6%), limiting barrels to 6.2% of contact, he’s failed to allow at least three runs in just one of his last nine starts. The 68.5 LOB% is a bit low, but his best estimator is still a worse than league average 4.23 xERA. The only appeals here are cost ($5.7K) and matchup (Tigers 68 wRC+, 24.1 K%, 6.7 HR/FB vs RHP). Keller is the top projected value on DraftKings currently, but also has the riskiest weather forecast on the slate. James Kaprielian has walked more batter than he’s struck out in five of his 11 starts (5.3 K-BB%) and has allowed 9.1% Barrels/BBE without completing six innings in any single start. He does not possess a single estimator below five, but does have one above six (6.11 FIP). He doesn’t even have a particularly friendly matchup (Mariners 108 wRC+, 22.2 K% vs RHP), but cost ($5.5K) plus a favorable park and umpire give him the third best point per dollar value projection on DK tonight. J.P. Crawrod is also serving his suspension tonight. These are not attractive pay downs and more like pitcher punts, who should only be necessary if you’re planning on paying up for SP1 with a top offense.

Top Strikeout Rate in a Great Spot Likely Drives Up Ownership

A moderate sized 10 game slate on Friday offers two pitchers above $10K on both sites with another exceeding that mark only on DraftKings. A 32.4 K% for Corbin Burnes tops the slate. He’s failed to produce a Quality Start only three times since his first of the season, completing seven innings in half (seven) of those starts. Home runs are up a bit this year with 12 (14.3 HR/FB), but he’s only registered two barrels that haven’t left the yard with just 34.8% of his contact at 95 mph EV or above. A 26.7 K-BB% produces non-FIP estimators that are all above, but within half a run of his 2.41 ERA. Despite the single batter barrage a few Pirates have gone on over the last few weeks (three players with three homer games), this is still an offense with just an 88 wRC+ and 25.0 K% vs RHP. The latter number, the second highest split on the board. This combination of factors gives him the top pitcher projection tonight as well as the second best point per dollar projection on either site. Expect Burnes to be quite popular tonight. Burnes is the most expensive pitcher on the board on FanDuel, but only second most expensive on DraftKings. For more on possible pivots, as well as a potential slate breaker, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Jed Lowrie (shoulder) placed on 10-day IL.

Jed Lowrie (shoulder) placed on 10-day IL.