DFS Alerts

Jeremy Peña scratched Thursday

Jeremy Peña scratched Thursday

Where Is Tonight's Top Offense Currently the Worst Rated Stack?

On an eight game slate where the Dodgers separate themselves from the rest of the board by more than full run projects the Dodgers to be the most popular stack on the board, though currently by a much larger margin on DraftKings than on FanDuel, although, remember that projections are fluid and updated throughout the day. Be sure to check back later, but this is probably something that won’t change. Also unlikely to change is that the Dodgers smash the slate in simulations much more often than any other offense. The Value% column gives us some different stacks to look at, though the Dodgers project so well that they also appear to be strong values tonight. However, the Phillies project as a slightly better value stack on either site against the barrel prone, but improving Josiah Gray. They are edged out slightly by Texas as the top projected value stack on FanDuel. Today’s projections currently create a dymanic where the Dodgers are one of the top rated stacks on one site, but actually the worst rated stack on the other. For more on this and other top rated stacks, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Couple of Top Bats Are Also Top Projected Values

If you’re looking to pay up for top end pitching and Dodger bats tonight, you need value bats sprinkled throughout the rest of your lineup. As luck would have it, PlateIQ projections for FanDuel (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) currently suggest a ton of value can be found right in that Dodger lineup. Max Muncy (123 wRC+, .137 ISO vs RHP since last season) doubles as a top projected overall bat and the second best projected FanDuel value at $2.7K against Jose Urena, against whom LHBs exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against since last season. The projected Dodger lineup features three more batters for $2.6K or less. Jake Lamb (101 wRC+, .208 ISO), Gavin Lux (110 wRC+, .134 ISO) and Cody Bellinger (78 wRC+, .194 ISO) are all top 10 projected FD values tonight. The only problem is that you’re limited in the number of Dodgers you can stack.

FanDuel PlateIQ projections also feature a pair of Phillies and Rangers as to values. Kyle Schwarber (152 wRC+, .351 ISO) is the top projected bat on the board and projects so well, that he also projects as a top value at $3.8K against the barrel prone Josiah Gray (11.5% Barrels/BBE), although he has been pitching better recently. Nick Castellanos (120 wRC+, .219 ISO) costs $2.8K. Also pitching better recently is Spencer Watkins, but batters from either side of the plate still exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season, while Kole Calhoun (99 wRC+, .176 ISO) and Mitch Garver (118 wRC+, .208 ISO) are each less than $2.5K.

A $2.3K Jake Lamb is also the top projected value on DraftKings tonight, but is not joined by any teammates among the top 10 projected values there. If you’re planning on stacking Yankees against Mitch Keller though (batters from either side of the plate own a wOBA and xwOBA between .345 and .364 against him since last year), then Aaron Hicks (75 wRC+) and Joey Gallo (118 wRC+, .251 ISO) are your value bats for less than $3K. DraftKings projections also like a pair of extremely cheap left-handed Rays for $2.1K or less against the debuting Brayan Bello in Boston. Kevin Kiermaier (99 wRC+, .157 ISO) has been fairly efficient, but Taylor Walls (65 wRC+) less so against RHP.

Are You Sure This Game is Not Being Played at Coors?

If you looked at the Dodgers’ 6.34 run team total and had to check to make sure this series hadn’t shifted to Coors, you’re not the only one. It’s merely the presence of Jose Urena on the mound that spiked this total at Dodger Stadium, where the home team separates themselves from the rest of the board by more than a full run. Only two of the remaining 15 teams on an eight game slate reach five implied runs, though exactly half the board is above four and a half implied runs tonight. The result, when considering tonight’s PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change, as always), is that the man who literally smashed last night’s slate (Kyle Schwarber) repeats as tonight’s top projected bat, but the rest of the top 10 is ruled by Dodgers on either site. Urena has come out of the pen four times this year, walking five of 36 batters with just three strikeouts. He has 705.1 career innings with a 7.3 K-BB% and has allowed 9.0% Barrels/BBE on 445 BBE since 2020. While Urena has generated at least half his contact on the ground against batters from either side of the plate since last season (which definitely means stacking is a better option than individual bats), LHBs exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him. RHBs have been above average as well though (.316 wOBA, .333 xwOBA). Freddie Freeman (149 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Max Muncy (123 wRC+, .137 ISO), Mookie Betts (137 wRC+, .243 ISO) and Trea Turner (127 wRC+, .172 ISO) are top six projected bats, split only by Yordan Alvarez from all being top five projected bats.

The New York Yankees (5.01 run total) are the only other team to feature multiple top 10 projected bats. The Nationals and Rays have gotten to Mitch Keller for eight runs over his last nine innings with five walks, though not a single barrel. Since ditching his four-seamer in favor of a sinker, he’s kept more of his contact on the ground (55.4%), allowing just a single home run on six barrels (6.5%), but it certainly hasn’t improve his swinging strike rate (8.1%). In fact, he has just an 8.0 K-BB% over his last six starts. The only positive is that now he has a chance to erase some of his double digit walk rate on double plays. Batters from either side of the plate own a wOBA and xwOBA between .345 and .364 against Keller since last year. Aaron Judge (157 wRC+, .276 ISO) and Anthony Rizzo (115 wRC+, .231 ISO) are the top projected Yankee bats, though remember that the latter was scratched from last night’s lineup with back issues.

Top Pitching Prospect with Impressive Minor League Numbers

The most interesting thing we find when filtering pitching in LineupHQ for P/$ tonight (and this may eventually be adjusted) is Brayan Bello at the top of the board. For sure, the two most extreme factors determining this are extremely low cost and Tampa Bay’s 25 K% vs RHP. Fenway is a tough park to pitch in with a potentially hitter friendly umpire, but at least weather conditions don’t appear to be significantly unfavorable to the debuting rookie tonight. Bello is the fourth ranked Boston prospect by Fangraphs with a 50 Future Value grade and also the 52nd ranked prospect in all of baseball. After producing a 23.3 K-BB% at AA this season, his stop off at AAA lasted just 51.1 innings (24.4 K-BB%), though the walk rate has been increasing at each level. With 44.4% of his AAA plate appearances being of the non-contact variety, we might have some workload concerns. He’s only improved his stock since a March scouting report heralded his increasing velocity, but also suggested an eventual high leverage reliever role for him, despite a three pitch mix that included a potentially above average slider and changeup.

The next best projected value for less than $9K on FanDuel is Alex Cobb and right behind him Mitch White. Covering them both together makes some sense because while both have favorable matchups, the concern is workload, since Quality Starts mean more on FD. Guess who hasn’t allowed an earned run over his last 9.1 innings? That would be Alex Cobb. He of the estimators still a run and a half or more below his 4.59 ERA. The troubling thing is that he has just a 16.4 K% and 7.2 SwStr% over this span. Without any significant changes to his pitches or usage, let’s hope this is a small sample thing. The great news is that his 18.8 K-BB%, 61.8 GB%, 87.1 mph EV and 2.3% Barrels/BBE are All-Star quality stuff, but he’s also only completed six innings twice this season. With a couple of trips to the IL already, the concern is that the Giants may be a bit more cautious with him going forward. Estimators range from a 2.52 ERA to a 3.16 DRA. The Diamondbacks have a 90 wRC+ and 23.5 K% vs RHP though, so perhaps he can be efficient enough to get through six innings on 90 pitches.

The Dodgers seem to want to cap White at 80 innings, so while the rate stats have been fine this year (15.2 K-BB%), the limited workload increases the risk/reward ratio of a 9.6% barrel rate and 90.2 mph EV. Only a 4.05 DRA is more than one-tenth of a run removed from his 3.93 ERA. He’s going to have to be extremely efficient to get through six innings, even against the Rockies (80 wRC+, 21.3 K% vs RHP) on that pitch count. Both Cobb and White are cheap enough where they can pay off their DK prices within five to six innings.

The fifth best projected DraftKings value is Josiah Gray at $8.2K. He has struck out at least six in four of his last five parts, but was lit up for six runs by the Marlins last time out. Just as he did last year, Gray has struck out more batters than average (25.4%), but also walked more than average too (10.1%). The home run ball was a big issue last season and he’s still allowing 11.5% Barrels/BBE on the season, but just five (5.3%) over his last six starts. That’s improvement. Most estimators are now closer to four than five. Non-FIP estimators are all within one-fifth of a run of his 4.22 ERA. Perhaps the hitter friendly environment in Philadelphia could be neutralized by the pitcher friendly umpire, absence of Bryce Harper and fairly neutral weather. The Phillies have been merely average against RHP (101 wRC+, 21.9 K%) and most of that is with Harper in the lineup. Gray is certainly worth a GPP flier or two tonight.

If you really need to punt our SP2 spot on DraftKings tonight, Spenser Watkins looks like a slightly different pitcher since returning to the Baltimore rotation and costs the minimum. He has allowed two runs (one earned) over 11 innings, striking out 9 of 41 batters, while walking just two. He’s also done this with his first two double digit SwStr% starts of the season, despite a velocity decrease. Watkins has increased cutter usage to 36.7% (35.3 Whiff% this year). We’re still talking about a pitcher with a 5.0 K-BB% and 10.7% Barrels/BBE over 95.2 career innings, so utilize caution. He did allow two of those barrels last time out as well, but it wouldn’t hurt to get out ahead of any potential changes in a few GPP lineups, just in case this is real.

Everything Could Fall in Place For This Top Arm

Wednesday night’s seven game slate does not feature many weather issues, whether it be rain concerns or extreme conditions favoring either hitting or pitching. What it does feature is several extreme umpires in one direction or another. We’ll mention a few of those spots here, but you get access to all umpire ratings and assignments with a premium membership in Lineup HQ. Two pitchers reach the $10K price point tonight and each do so on both sites. Most expensively, Atlanta got him for four runs and two home runs, but Austin Nola struck out at least eight for the third straight starts and completed seven innings for the fifth straight time last time out. He’s running a 25.6 K-BB% with only 33.5% of his contact hit an exit velocity of 95 mph or above. The result is that while Nola has a 3.13 ERA, he doesn’t have a single estimator above three. Conditions are more neutral in Philadelphia tonight for his matchup with the Nationals, who don’t strike out much (20 K%), but also have little power (9.3 HR/FB) vs RHP. There are additional factors here that could play in Nola’s favor. While both Juan Soto and Nelson Cruz are in tonight’s projected lineup, both missed last night’s game due to nagging injuries. Their continued absence would further handicap an already power challenged offense. This is also a spot with an extremely pitcher friendly umpire. Nola is not only the top projected pitcher on the board, but a great projected value on either site. Unfortunately, this probably means he’ll also be extremely popular, but check back on ownership projections later in the day. For more analysis on top of the board pitching, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Nelson Cruz scratched Tuesday

Nelson Cruz scratched Tuesday

The start of Mets-Reds will be delayed Tuesday due to weather

Game update: The start of Mets-Reds will be delayed Tuesday due to weather

Anthony Rizzo (back) scratched Tuesday

Anthony Rizzo (back) scratched Tuesday

This Stack Currently Projects for the Triple Crown (Own%, Smash%, Value%)

They may not be the top offense in the eyes of the sportsbooks, but with one-third of the board reaching five implied runs without anyone conquering five and a half, it’s a bit of a melting pot atop the board tonight and the Phillies with tremendous hitting weather in a great hitting park are one of those offenses in the mix. Current projections suggest they’ll be the most popular stack tonight, but not by very much and only reaching a double digit Own% on DraftKings currently. It is incredibly important to remember that these projections are fluid too and do update throughout the afternoon. Who do current simulations see smashing the slate most often? Again, it’s the Phillies, but again, barely ahead of the Dodgers and not reaching a double digit Smash% on either site. Another category where Philadelphia stacks hold a miniscule lead without reaching double digits is Value% on FanDuel. Where we do finally see some separation from the board is in stacking value projections on DraftKings. At a 21.31 Value%, the Tigers currently project for nearly twice as much value as any other stack on the board. Who are the top rated stacks? Not really any of the teams we’ve talked about here. To find out more, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The Lineup That's Loaded with Projected Value

There’s a good chance that a lot of players might be paying down for pitching and may not need as many value bats as usual, but when they’re right there in some of the top lineups, why not? This is the case for the Dodgers, who are tied for fifth on the board at 5.25 implied runs and are one of just two teams to feature multiple top 10 projected bats tonight. They also feature multiple top 10 projected values on FanDuel against German Marquez (LHBs .333 wOBA, .343 xwOBA since last season). Max Muncy (120 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Jake Lamb (102 wRC+, .211 ISO) are cheaper FD bats, making your Dodger stacks easier.

If not the Dodgers, or maybe in addition to the Dodgers, there’s also a game in Baltimore with some hitter friendly conditions expected, where the Orioles continue to stretch Austin Voth out, up to 62 pitches last time out. He does have an impressive 15.3 SwStr% over three short starts, though let’s defer to his career 22.1 K% for the time being, which isn’t bad at all. A poor contact profile has been his issue (8.5% Barrels/BBE). His 7.34 ERA through 30.2 innings this year is nearly double his estimators (.412 BABIP, 58.8 LOB%). Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Voth since last season. FanDuel projections suggest there’s some value top to middle of the projected Texas lineup with Josh Smith (144 wRC+) and Kole Calhoun (102 wRC+, .178 ISO) costing exactly $2.3K each.

DraftKings projections however, suggest almost all the top 10 value is in Detroit. While nothing in Cal Quantrill’s profile is a massive regression candidate, he probably had a little bit coming with each of a .269 BABIP, 75.8 LOB% and 9.7 HR/FB, which have combined to result in a 3.72 ERA that’s at least three-quarters of a run below all estimators. The largest and really only issue is a 14.6 K%, which makes it really difficult to keep an ERA below four with unless there’s some sort of contact profile wizardry and his is fairly average. The Detroit lineup is projected to lineup nearly entirely left-handed against him tonight and batters from that side have a .299 wOBA and .317 xwOBA against him since last season. There’s nothing particularly good about the Detroit offense, but they are particularly cheap. Willi Castro (72 wRC+) is the top projected value on DK tonight. Riley Greene (139 wRC+), Victor Reyes (83 wRC+), Jeimer Candelario (108 wRC+, .160 ISO) and Harold Castro (94 wRC+) are all top 10 projected DK values as well. Candelario and Javier Baez are the only batters in the projected lineup exceeding a .140 ISO against RHP since last season, but these players don’t have to do much to cover prices all $2.5K or less.

Power, Park and Weather Boost These Bats to the Top of the Board

One-third or eight of the 24 teams on a 12 game slate reach a five run team total on Tuesday night, which re-emphasizes the poor state of pitching on this slate. Seven more (so more than half the board) reaches at least four and a half implied runs tonight. The Braves are at the top of the board with a 5.44 run team total, but don’t really separate themselves from several other teams in that range. The result is that Ronald Acuna Jr. (141 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is currently the only top 10 projected value by PlateIQ against contact prone, extreme ground baller Andre Pallante in a hitter friendly park, but pitcher friendly umpire in Atlanta. In fact, only two teams place multiple batters inside the top 10.

Let’s start with the top projected bat on the board. It’s warm with the wind blowing out in Philly tonight and Weather Edge is currently stating that offense (both runs and home runs) increase dramatically under tonight’s expected conditions. Paolo Espino has struck out 14 of 76 batters over four starts, but with just a 6.1 SwStr%. Four of his five barrels (8.9%) have left the yard. Facing mostly marginal offenses, his 3.91 ERA over this span is much lower than estimators, due to an 81.5 LOB%. Ideally, Espino would probably not be part of a fully healthy major league rotation. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .308 and .338 wOBA and xwOBA against Espino since last year, so slightly above average before we even consider the environment and conditions. In addition, the top of the Washington bullpen (if there is one) has been used heavily the last few days and may not be available tonight. The entire bullpen has a 5.63 FIP that’s second worst in the majors over the last 30 days. All of this, plus his own numbers against RHP since last season (148 wRC+, .340 ISO) are why Kyle Schwarber is the top projected bat on the board tonight. It’s also why he’s joined among the top 10 by Rhys Hoskins (119 wRC+, .244 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (119 wRC+, .219 ISO). The latter has been struggling, but the former owns a projected lineup leading 211 wRC+ over the last 30 days, while Schwarber has been barreling 21.1% of his contact this year. The Phillies have the fourth highest implied run line on the board tonight (5.28).

The Dodgers are tied for fifth on the board at 5.25 implied runs, but are the only other offense to feature multiple top 10 projected bats in Mookie Betts (136 wRC+, .238 ISO) and Freddie Freeman (149 wRC+, .212 ISO). Cody Bellinger is the only batter in the projected lineup below a 100 wRC+ and Gavin Lux the only one below a .170 ISO against RHP since last season. German Marquz has walked eight of his last 47 batters with just four strikeouts, dipping his strikeout rate to 18.7% on the season (10.2 K-BB%). Despite a 48.7 GB%, he’s still allowed 8.1% Barrels/BBE because 45.4% of his contact has been hard hit (95+ mph EV). His 92.0 Z-Contact% is easily worst on the board today. He does have a .100 point difference in his Home/Road wOBA allowed and an 8.4 point increase in his K-BB% in away games, but that still doesn’t inspire much confidence in this spot. A .320 BABIP, 63.6 LOB% and 17.9 HR/FB generate estimators ranging from a 4.16 xFIP to a 4.98 FIP, all well below his 5.89 ERA, but none of those numbers is actually good. He does have a bit of a split (LHBs .333 wOBA, .343 xwOBA since last season), but RHBs are still average against him (.313 wOBA, .307 xwOBA).

Where to Consider Embracing Risk and Paying Down for Pitching Tonight

Ten of Yusei Kikuchi’s 14 home runs and 16 of his 28 barrels (16.8%) have been surrendered over his last six starts, over which he has a 37.5 GB% and 95.1 mph EV. He’s also struck out 30 of the 101 batters hes’ faced over this span (14.7 SwStr%), but with 12 walks. The strikeouts aren’t doing you much good, as he’s only completed six innings once in this span and three times all season. As one might expect, his contact inclusive estimators are much higher than his 4.74 ERA this year, while contact neutral ones are a half run lower. This sounds like the beginning of a post where we’re considering which pitchers we want to attack, but it’s not. Yusei Kikuchi is actually essentially tied for the top projection on the board (PlateIQ projections are fluid and updated throughout the day) and costing less than $8K on either site, he’s also the runaway top projected point per dollar value. Part of it is the dismal state of pitching on this slate, but part of it is also the matchup and environment. Oakland is a substantial park upgrade and power suppressor, even if the weather is slightly more hitter friendly than usual. The A’s have an 84 wRC+, 23 K% and 8.8 HR/FB vs LHP this year. They have just a 70 wRC+ and 5.3 HR/FB at home. Embrace the risk and check in on Kikuchi’s ownership projections later in the day.

Kikuchi (4.11) is the only pitcher currently reaching a four P/$ projection on FanDuel tonight, although the top 11 projected values all cost less than $8.5K. You wouldn’t want to use most of them on a single pitcher site however. Alex Wood has allowed 13 runs (three home runs) over his last 11 innings with just a 42.9 GB% and 90.6 mph EV over that span. His velocity has been steadily dropping (though it did bump up in his last start), as he’s down to a 22.5 K% on the season. On positive notes, he’s still allowed just 13 barrels (5.9%) with a 6.3 BB% with estimators all well below a 5.03 ERA (.340 BABIP, 66.8 LOB%, 13.6 HR/FB). In fact, a 4.22 DRA is the only one above four, but watching his velocity going forward will be key. This is another spot where we like the matchup. The Diamondbacks have an 85 wRC+ and 23.5 K% vs LHP. Wood costs exactly $8K on FanDuel, but projects just outside the top five values for $9.2K on DraftKings.

The Dodgers seem to want to cap Mitch White at 80 innings, so while the rate stats have been fine this year (15.2 K-BB%), the limited workload increases the risk/reward ratio of a 9.6% barrel rate and 90.2 mph EV. Only a 4.05 DRA is more than one-tenth of a run removed from his 3.93 ERA. Average pitcher on a capped workload might be fine in a neutral environment against a poor offense against RHP (81 wRC+), but the Rockies don’t strike out much (21.1% vs RHP). White is a top three projected value on either site for $7.4K, which, again, says more about the state of pitching on this slate than anything else.

The only drawback to rostering Jeffrey Springs had been his workload, but he’s now been extended beyond 90 pitches in three of his last four starts, including more than 100 last time out. He has allowed multiple home runs in three of his last six starts on nine barrels (10%), but also has a 23.9 K-BB% over that span. One of the few pitchers we’ve seen move from the pen to the rotation without losing anything, a 3.53 DRA is two-tenths of a run higher than any of his other estimators, though all are more than three-quarters of a run above his 2.25 ERA (92.2 LOB%). Springs costs $9.7K on DraftKings, but $8.4K on FanDuel. Yet, he projects as just tonight’s seventh best arm and a marginal value. The reason is because he’s facing a good offense (board topping 120 wRC+ vs LHP with a 21 K%) in a tough park (Fenway) under difficult conditions (wind blowing out with some rain concerns).

One last pitcher, who probably deserves some words on a slate like this is Kyle Hendricks. He does not project particularly well at all, but has struck out 25 of his last 93 batters with at least six in each of his last three starts. He had previously exceeded three strikeouts in just one of seven starts. With this strikeout bump, he has an ERA and estimators below four over this span and perhaps it is real with a 15+ SwStr% in three of the four starts. Simply, fewer four-seam fastballs with more sinkers and changeups appears to be the recipe. Skepticism is normal and may even be correct. Hendricks still has season estimators all within one-third of a run of his 4.76 ERA, but we have to consider that this is a different pitcher now, completing just his third and fourth Quality Starts of the season last two times out. And on this slate, with a reasonable matchup (Brewers 107 wRC+, 23.4 K%) in a somewhat neutral park, he may be worth considering for $7.6K on DraftKings, though his $9.6K FanDuel cost may be too high.

Tonight's Top End Pitching is Full of Risk

A 12 game Tuesday night slate features a little bit of a lot of things. We have spot starters, pitchers who are not fully stretched out, weather concerns, hitter friendly weather and to top it all off, the only pitcher to exceed $10K on either site is…Nick Pivetta? This is not going to be easy, but let’s cover some high priced pitching anyway. Pivetta has 10 Quality Starts in his last 11 tries, allowing more than two runs in just one of them. He’s running a 24.2 K% and 17.6 K-BB% over this span, though with just a 9.1 SwStr% that bears watching, considering the retention of a 90.7 mph EV over this span. His 3.23 ERA is a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.68 FIP to a 4.24 xERA with just 10 of his 24 barrels (9.3%) leaving the yard. On the positive side, the Rays strike out a ton against RHP (25.1% with a 97 wRC+). Looking at the projected Tampa Bay lineup in PlateIQ, four of the first five have a sub-17.5 K% against RHP this year, but the remaining five exceed 26%. On the other hand, Fenway is a tough park to pitch in and weather conditions may make it even more difficult tonight. Pivetta is the third best projected pitcher on this board, but just a middle of the board projected value (although PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change). To see how the rest of tonight’s most expensive pitchers measure up, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

With Top Projected Bats & Values, Fading This Stack May Be High Risk

A seven game Monday night slate belongs to the Dodgers offensively. Although not entirely separating themselves from the rest of the board, they to have the highest team total at 5.56 runs where PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) project them to be the most popular stack and smash the slate more than any other stack on either site, while they do create some separation form the rest of the board in these areas. In fact, they currently pull off the Triple Crown on FanDuel, projecting for the most value as well with an affordable Max Muncy and Will Smith projecting both as top overall bats and top point per dollar values tonight. On DraftKings, it’s all Dodgers until we get to the Value% column, where Tigers hold a lead over the White Sox, both separating themselves from any other stack. Detroit has been better against LHP (99 wRC+) and they are cheap against Konnor Pilkington, who has been struggling recently. Dodgers, Dodgers, Dodgers…Dodgers, Dodgers, Dodgers, but does their Smash% overlap their Own% enough to make them the top rated stack tonight? Check out tonight’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.