DFS Alerts

Jason Heyward (knee) placed on 10-day IL.

Jason Heyward (knee) placed on 10-day IL.

The Surprising Stack Projected to Smash the Slate Tonight

On a five game slate where the Cubs are the only team above five implied runs, separating themselves by nearly half a run from the rest of the board, it’s a bit of a surprise that they’re currently projected for less than 20% stack ownership on either site. In fact, half of the team teams on FanDuel are projected between 11.0% and 16.0% ownership. On a seven game DraftKings slate, the Cubs and Brewers (4.7 team run total) are a bit above the rest of the pack. Simulations believe that it’s actually the Cincinnati Reds are smashing the slate most often tonight with the wind blowing out against Kyle Hendricks, who has struck out exactly six in three straight, but has still allowed 10% Barrels/BBE this year with much more elevated contact than usual. Still, the Reds merely separate themselves from the rest of the pack by just a few points. There are also several cheap bats in that Cincy projected lineup, making them the top projected value stack as well on either site, though closely followed by the A’s on FanDuel and the Brewers and Cubs on DraftKings. Despite all the smashing and value, Cincinnati stacks are not the top rated stacks tonight. To find out who currently is, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Why Does This Guy Still Cost Less Than $3K?

Whether it’s the five game FanDuel or seven game DraftKings slate, projections for both sites somewhat agree there’s some value in the Chicago and Pittsburgh lineups tonight. Rafael Ortega (129 wRC+, .180 ISO vs RHP since LY) currently tops the FanDuel board at a whopping 5.08 P/$ projection at a cost of $2.3K against Graham Ashcraft, who’s reverse split sees RHBs holding a mere .220 wOBA (.256 xwOBA) against him in a small sample. Ortega is a top 10 projected value on both sites tonight with the wind blowing out fairly strongly at Wrigley tonight, although he’s joined on that list by a couple of different teammates. Alfonso Rivas (107 wRC+, .120 ISO) is the top projected DraftKings value bat tonight at minimum cost ($2K). Ian Happ (115 wRC+, .213 ISO) doubles as a top overall bat and projected point per dollar value at $3K on FanDuel.

While both sites also agree there’s some value in the Pittsburgh projected lineup, where that value may lie differs. Adrian Houser has just a 15.6 K% (6.1 SwStr%) over his last seven starts and is down to 17.6% (7.2 SwStr%) and 8.3 K-BB% on the year. Mostly what the Brewers employ him for are ground balls and while that’s down too this year, a 48.1% mark is still well above average, allowing him to suppress barrels (5.1%). However, he’s also working with a .309 BABIP and 61.9 LOB% that counteracts his 9.1 HR/FB so that all non-FIP estimators are within half a run of his 4.50 ERA. Houser carries a large natural split (LHBs .347 wOBA, .339 xwOBA). Why does Bryan Reynolds (139 wRC+, .243 ISO) still cost less than $3K on FD? Josh VanMeter (71 wRC+, .143 ISO) Is just $200 above the minimum. On DK, Daniel Vogelbach (127 wRC+, .215 ISO) is $2.6K and Hoy Park (61 wRC+) costs the minimum.

With only five games on the slate, you’ll also find a pair of Rays projected among the top six values against Yusei Kikuchi, who has allowed nine of his 13 home runs over his last five starts with multiple home runs in four of those five games without completing five innings once. He now has a 21.3 HR/FB, but with only half of his barrels (16.9%) leaving the yard. Add in a 13.5 BB% (43.2 Z-O-Swing%) and his 25.5 K% is not going nearly as far as it should. More than half his contact has been at least 95 mph off the bat and his lowest estimator is a 4.40 SIERA. Harold Ramirez (135 wRC+, .136 ISO) and Yandy Diaz (126 wRC+, .160 ISO) are both within $200 of $2.5K. On DraftKings, Kolten Wong (114 wRC+, .192 ISO) and Jace Peterson (101 wRC+, .164 ISO) costs $3K or less against J.T. Brubaker (LHBs .340 wOBA, .320 xwOBA since LY).

Weather Conditions Push This Offense Up the Board

Whether it’s a five game FanDuel or seven game DraftKings slate tonight, the Chicago Cubs are the lone team above five implied runs tonight, separating themselves from the Blue Jays by nearly half a run and this probably has more to do with weather than anything else, as the Cincinnati Reds own the third highest team total on the board tonight at 4.76 runs. A trio of Blue Jays project among the best bats on FanDuel tonight against, well, Matt Wisler and whomever the Rays have available to throw behind him, as Tampa Bay has not yet let their plans be known. Vladimir Guerroro Jr. (157 wRC+, .274 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is the top projected FD bat tonight with George Springer (134 wRC+, .274 ISO) and Alejandro Kirk (135 wRC+, .183 ISO) not too far behind. Guerrero is just the fifth best projected bat on DraftKings (Springer 10th) with the two extra games available.

Both sites also include a pair of Milwaukee Brewers among tonight’s top 10 projected bats. Home runs are not the problem for J.T. Brubaker. In fact, his 10.3 HR/FB is a full point better than league average and three of his nine came in a single start. He’s also only allowed 16 barrels (6.9%). His 22.0 K% is just two points lower than last year, but the problem is that his walk rate has increased by nearly two points as well (9.0%), decreasing his K-BB (13%) by nearly four points. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .320 and .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Brubaker since last season. Current projections like Christian Yelich (109 wRC+, .130 ISO) and Rowdy Tellez (107 wRC+, .225 ISO) to do the most damage.

A pair of Cubs are also top projected FanDuel bats with the wind blowing out at Wrigley against Graham Ashcraft, who isn’t missing bats (15.8 K%, 8.5 SwStr%), but is doing nearly everything else at an elite rate (4.1 BB%, 57.5 GB%, 85.2 mph EV, 4.4% Barrels/BBE), affording him a 3.27 ERA and nearly matching 3.22 xERA. Ashcraft has produced a massive reverse split (LHBs .220 wOBA, .256 xwOBA), but projections still favor the left-handed production of Ian Happ (115 wRC+, .213 ISO) and Rafael Ortega (129 wRC+, .180 ISO) against him.

Only available on DraftKings, Aaron Judge (161 wRC+, ,281 ISO) and Giancarlo Stanton (135 wRC+, .262 ISO) are top projected bats, despite Luis Garcia holding RHBs to a .256 wOBA (.308 xwOBA). He only has five Quality Starts on the season because he suffers a significant decline after two trips through the order and this has generally limited a lot of his outings. His rate starts are fantastic (18.9 K-BB%), though that third time through penalty shows up in the 8.2% Barrels/BBE he’s allowed. Batting in the top half of the order, Judge and Stanton may be able to take advantage of that third time through decline.

There's a Reason You're Paying Up For Pitching Tonight

We have to consider that a lot of FanDuel players will be paying up for Logan Gilbert against the A’s tonight or even Joe Musgrove at Dodger Stadium tonight because the pickings get slim real fast on a 10 pitcher slate tonight (it’s a bit stronger on DraftKings with four more pitchers available). Current PlateIQ projections for FanDuel (which are fluid and subject to change) suggest that Mitch White is the top value at $6.7K, opposing Musgrove. He has produced a modest 22.1 K% and 14.0 K-BB% over five starts, though with just 37.3% of his contact on the ground and a 91.8 mph EV. Four of his eight barrels (9.6%) have left the yard this season overall (including relief work). The Dodgers have pulled him around the 70-75 pitch range in each of his last three starts, so this is less a point of building up rather than they just don’t want a batting order to see him a third time. His 4.25 ERA is a bit above estimators ranging as low as a 3.74 SIERA, while stranding just 69.1% of runners. The workload is problematic on FD, but that’s likely baked into the low cost. The Padres have just a 97 wRC+, 22.1 K% and 8.1 HR/FB vs RHP this year. White also appears to be a fine SP2 on DK for just $6.4K.

Adrian Martinez threw 5.1 innings of shutout ball in his major league debut, striking out three of 21 Tigers without a walk and 85.1 mph EV. The 25 year-old came over in the Sean Manaea trade just a few months ago without any prospect pedigree or even a Future Value grade on his Fangraphs page. He did have an impressive 18.1 K-BB% in 64 AAA innings this year, but just 11.2% over 44.1 there last year. He projects as the third best value on FanDuel for $6.2K in Seattle (107 wRC+, 22.3 K% vs RHP). You can suddenly see why Logan Gilbert currently projects around 50% ownership on FanDuel tonight.

In terms of additional SP2 arms on DraftKings (look away now if you have a weak stomach), Kyle Hendricks costs just $5.1K against the Reds (87 wRC+, 23.0 K% vs RHP, 75 wRC+, 7.4 HR/FB on the road). He has struck out exactly six batters in three straight starts after having struck out more than two in just two of his previous eight. His newly rediscovered strikeout ability, which does come with an increase in SwStr%, still has him at just 17.2% on the season. He’s no longer a ground ball pitcher (36.3%), who excels at suppressing barrels (10%) either. He does still limit the free passes at least (6.6%). Hendricks has just three Quality Starts all season, completing seven innings in each without completing six innings in any other. His 4.90 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators. Also an issue are the double digit winds blowing out at Wrigley tonight.

Ian Anderson has increased his strikeout rate from 16.2% to 20.2% over his last seven starts, but continues to struggle to find the strike zone with an 11.2 BB% (44.4 Z-O-Swing%). The result has been at least four runs in five of these last seven, while the ground ball rate is down two more points since last year (47.3%). Allowing just 5.0% Barrels/BBE registers a 3.86 xERA, but with just a 9.0 K-BB%, all additional estimators are within one-third of a run of his 4.60 ERA. He costs $7.2K and may have to face some difficult conditions in Philly, but it’s a marginal offense (97 wRC+, 22.4 K% vs RHP), but they have replaced Bryce Harper by something called a Darick Hall in the cleanup spot.

High Upside Spot for Top DraftKings Arm

Thursday’s main slate includes seven games, starting an hour earlier on DraftKings, while FanDuel will stick to the normal start time with five. Two of the 10 available pitchers on FD cross the $10K barrier, while Aaron Nola costs exactly that much on DraftKings, as the most expensive pitcher on the seven game slate. Nola is the top projected pitcher and point per dollar value on the only site on which he is available with the earlier start. He has completed seven innings in four straight starts with a total of three runs allowed and also has at least seven innings of two run ball or better in eight of his last 12 starts. He’s struck out fewer than six just once over that span and just by one with a total of nine walks. His 25.7 K-BB% on the season, pushes all below, but within one-third of a run of his 2.98 ERA. He’s been good enough that projections suggest he can overcome difficult weather in a tough park against a dangerous offense (101 wRC+, 15.0 HR/FB vs RHP), though it’s a pitcher friendly umpire, while the Braves are predominantly right-handed with the highest strikeout rate split on the board against RHP (25.5%). There’s a very clear top of the board arm on FanDuel as well. For more on that and today’s other high priced pitchers, check out Thursday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Lineup update: Matt Wisler will open for the Rays on Thursday.

Lineup update: Matt Wisler will open for the Rays on Thursday.

The Value Stack to Pair with Your High End Hitting & Pitching

On a seven game slate where the Dodgers outrun every other team total by a full two runs at Coors tonight, somewhere upwards of one-fith of stacks are projected to be Dodgers tonight. It’s very tough to get away from, although Cleveland, with a combination of top and value bats, also projected for double digit stacking ownership on either site, despite just a modest, middle of the board, 4.25 run team total against Dylan Bundy. The Dodgers smash the slate even more often in simulations, around one-quarter of the time, while Cleveland is the top value stack, a bit ahead of the Cubs against the volatile Hunter Greene with some pitcher friendly weather at Wrigley tonight. PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change, but where does that leave us in terms of Leverage Ratings? Check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

Fishing for Value in This Low Cost Lineup

How are players going to afford all those Dodger bats with so many high priced pitchers as well? The answer, according to PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change) depends on which site you’re playing on tonight, but there are a couple of lineups where value bats should be able to be found on both sites. FanDuel projections like a couple Minnesota lefties against Cal Quantrill, who has struck out more than four just twice this season with a high of seven, owning just a 7.2 K-BB% on the season. After nine straight starts of at least six innings (eight Quality Starts), he’s failed to go six in each of his last two, while all estimators are more than half a run above his 3.76 ERA, ranging from a 4.37 FIP to a 4.99 DRA. He does have a bit of a reverse split with LHBs owning a .298 wOBA, .317 xwOBA against him since last season, but Max Kepler (113 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP since LY), costing $2.7K), and Nick Gordon (93 wRC+, .150 ISO), at just above the minimum, are both top five projected point per dollar FD values tonight.

FanDuel projections also suggest complimenting the top overall bat of Jose Ramirez (158 wRC+, .311 ISO) with Franmil Reyes (110 wRC+, .233 ISO) and Steven Kwan (116 wRC+) at $2.4K each against Dylan Bundy, who isn’t walking anyone (4.7%), but that’s really the only positive. He’s struck out more than three just twice over his last eight starts and is down to a 17.9 K% on the year. When you’re not striking anyone out and 10.6% of your contact has been barreled, that’s going to be a problem. The walk rate is the only thing keeping his xERA (3.83) below four, but that’s the only estimator we can say that about. Batters from either side of the plate are within a .330 to .348 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.

Over on DraftKings, projections are actually suggesting the top value lineups are facing the pitchers with the top value projections, which is certainly possible at the right prices. It’s pitcher friendly weather in Wrigley for Hunter Greene’s 28.9 K%, which is second highest on the board, but he’s struggled with walks and contact on occasion. LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within two points of .310 against him. He actually has a reverse split, but Rafael Ortega (131 wRC+, .181 ISO) and Alfonso Rivas (111 wRC+) are both extremely cheap.

Three of the top five projected point per dollar values on DraftKings are Marlins. Andre Pallante generates a lot of weak ground balls, which does give him some value in a favorable park at a very low cost, but he also has just a 4.8 K-BB% and a reverse split (RHBs .357 wOBA, .339 xwOBA). Jesus Aguliar (111 wRC+, .192 ISO) is the top projected DraftKings value for just $2.2K with Brian Anderson (121 wRC+, .132 ISO) and Garrett Cooper (138 wRC+, .164 ISO) both costing less than $3K as well.

No Other Offense Within Two Runs

The Dodgers are still at Coors tonight, but on just a seven game slate. Despite falling 10 runs short of their team totals over the last two nights combined, how do you think they’re going to look on a seven game slate after their team run total and projections dominated a full 15 game slate last night? Yes, you would be correct. Complete domination. The Dodgers currently own a 6.75 implied run line that’s exactly two runs above any other offense tonight. It’s a massive gap. Four of the top five projected bats on either site are Dodgers (split only Jose Ramirez against Dylan Bundy). German Marquez has Quality Starts in each of his last three road starts, but hasn’t allowed fewer than three earned runs in a home start since opening day and even only that few once. The strikeouts have been hit or miss with a 10.9 K-BB% overall and 45.7% of his contact at least 95 mph in exit velocity. Exactly half his contact being on the ground is about the only positive thing here, although estimators are all more than half a run below his 5.58 ERA (.320 BABIP, 64.8 LOB%, 18.2 HR/FB). Marquez only has a bit of a split, but batters from either side of the plate are above a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him and that’s enough for great Dodger bats from either side of the plate to project tremendously against him. Trea Turner (129 wRC+, .173 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Freddie Freeman (147 wRC+, .205 ISO) are the top two projected bats on the board. Will Smith (133 wRC+, .230 ISO) and Max Muncy (123 wRC+, .236 ISO) are top five as well with Justin Turner (115 wRC+, .163 ISO) also sneaking into the top 10.

While that doesn’t leave a lot of room for other offenses, the Toronto Blue Jays (4.73 implied runs) also sneak their two top hitters, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (158 wRC+, .276 ISO) and George Springer (133 wRC+, .270 ISO), into the bottom half of the top 10 projected hitters tonight. Nick Pivetta has been striking out a lot of batters (though with a suspect SwStr%), but has marginal control (8.1 BB%) and does not fare well upon contact (90.9 mph EV, 9.1% Barrels/BBE). RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within three points of .300 against him since last season. Lastly, the only reason the Angels only feature a single top 10 projected bat tonight is because Shohei Ohtani, although Mike Trout (193 wRC+, .392 ISO) being outside the top five is a bit of a rarity, but RHBs have a .237 wOBA (.290 xwOBA) against Michael Kopech since last season.

Highly Volatile Arms Project as Strong Values in High Upside Spots

Hunter Greene is the second best projected pitcher on the board currently (PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change) with a price tag sitting in the middle of the board ($9.1K FD, $8.1K DK) on a seven game slate. He’s allowed five home runs, while striking out nine of his last 44 batters with four walks against the Brewers and Dodgers. His 8.2 SwStr% against the Dodgers was his second lowest of the season. His strikeout rate still stands at 28.9% (second best on the board). It’s just a matter of harnessing the stuff, not handing out free passes (9.8 BB%) and keeping the ball in the park. He has six starts with multiple home runs allowed, including at least three on three different occasions. In his defense, it’s a tough park and he’s only generated a single barrel that hasn’t left the park, but that’s still 11.4% of his contact. A 5.70 FIP exceeds his 5.60 ERA, but all other estimators are more than a run lower. He’s volatile, but with tremendous upside in a favorable spot. Weather Edge suggest Wrigley is more pitcher friendly tonight with a pitcher friendly umpire against a team with a 98 wRC+ and 22.8 K% vs RHP. Greene is a top two projected point per dollar value on either site tonight.

The other pitcher who projects well enough to stand alone from a point per dollar perspective for less than $9K is Michael Kopech ($8.9K FD, $7.6K DK). He has struck out just six of his last 49 batters with five walks and is down to just a 22.9 K% on the season with a 9.8 SwStr%. Pair that with some awful control (11.6 BB%) and he’s running a SIERA and xFIP above four and a half. The confusing thing is that an 89.5 mph EV and 7.5% Barrels/BBE is fine, but doesn’t seem like it would drop his xERA more than a run below those contact neutral estimators, but it does. Then consider that just four of those 12 barrels have left the yard (4.8 HR/FB) and you get the unsustainable 3.62 FIP, which is still more than a run above his 2.59 ERA (.191 BABIP). It’s not that he has an easy matchup tonight, but a high upside one against the Angels (106 wRC+ and board high 26 K% vs RHP). This lineup simply strikes out a ton with a lot of outs in the bottom half.

DraftKings projections also suggest Andre Pallante is a decent punt at $5.1K. He has struck out just 12 of 88 batters in a starting role with 10 walks. On a positive note, he’s also only allowed two barrels with a ground ball rate above 60% as a starter. On the season, he has a 62.7 GB% with just 3.3% Barrels/BBE, but even with that contact profile, a 4.8 K-BB% isn’t going to cut it. A 3.68 xERA (that’s likely unsustainable) is his only estimator below four. He pitches in a pitcher friendly park (though with a hitter friendly umpire today) against a predominantly right-handed lineup that has been really good against RHP (110 wRC+, 22.4 K%), while he’s shown a reverse split (RHBs .357 wOBA, .339 xwOBA), but the Marlins also have just an 86 wRC+ on the road and he really doesn’t have to do much to cover this cost.

The same pitcher friendly Wrigley weather in a strong spot conditions apply to Justin Steele at a low price ($6.5K DK). The eight Pirates he struck out last time out exceeds his total from his previous three starts combined (seven). Make no mistake, Steele is a contact manager (50.3 GB%, 87 mph EV, 3.1% Barels/BBE) with the strikeouts (21.3%) and walks (10.1%) hit or miss on any given occasion. He’s also only gone beyond five innings four times, but three of those have been over his last four starts. With a .314 BABIP and 64.4 LOB%, all of his estimators are more than one-third of a run below his 4.59 ERA. The Reds have a modest 98 wRC+ and 22.4 K% vs LHP, but just a 73 wRC+ and 7.2 HR/FB on the road.

Abundance of High End Pitchers in Difficult Spots

Five of the 14 pitchers available on Wednesday night’s slate exceed $10K on FanDuel, while Sandy Alcantara costs exactly that much on DraftKings and is the most expensive pitcher on either site. He has completed at least seven innings in nine consecutive starts, allowing more than two runs only his last time out with his second and third home run of this span allowed as well. The strikeout rate isn’t much above average (23%), but doesn’t have to be when you’re pitching this deep into games and every other aspect of your game is stellar (55 GB%, 15.7 IFFB%, 6.9 BB%, 86.9 mph EV, 5.0% Barrels/BBE). The 1.95 ERA is an obvious regression candidate (.244 BABIP, 7.2 HR/FB), but his worst estimator is still just a 3.55 SIERA. The matchup is not ideal (Cardinals 106 wRC+, 20.5 K% vs RHP) and the umpire is hitter friendly, but the park is favorable. This combination of factors makes Alcantara just the fourth best projected pitcher on the board tonight, but that should also suppress the ownership for a pitcher with one of the highest floors in the league. Tonight’s top projected arm might surprise some. To find out who and why, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Tommy Pham (back) scratched Tuesday

Tommy Pham (back) scratched Tuesday

We Already Know the Top Offense, But Which Stack Projects for the Most Value?

What you’re basically looking for on a slate like today’s (either 14 or 15 games with the Dodgers at Coors a run and a half ahead of every other team with only one other offense reaching five implied runs), is a way to get away from the Dodgers and differentiate in GPPs. For one, there’s a lot of good pitching on this board and nearly all of it costs $9K or more. Might that lower Dodger ownership? Current projections, which are fluid and updated throughout the day, don’t believe so with Dodger stacks above 15% projected ownership and nearly three times any other stack. Shocking nobody, the Dodgers smash the slate in nearly 20% of simulations, which is also nearly three times any other stack. Dodger Smash% is slightly higher than Dodger Own%, so that’s something that may suggest Dodger stacks are still a decent bet, but more on in today’s PlateIQ Live Blog. The cheap bats you’re going to stack next to Dodger bats? That’s the Pirates with the top Value% on either site, but more overwhelmingly so on DraftKings. RHBs have a .383 wOBA and xwOBA against Patrick Corbin since last season and many Pittsburgh bats cost less than $3K.

RHBs Have a .383 wOBA and xwOBA Against This Pitcher Since Last Year

You’ve got more top Dodger bats than you can possibly stack and a lot of strong expensive pitching available on Tuesday night. You may even have to punt a position or two, but are certainly looking for value bats in your lineup. The place to start…might actually be the Dodger lineup. Max Muncy (129 wRC+, .232 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is still too cheap on FanDuel ($3.2K), doubling as a top projected overall bat and value there. Trayce Thompson (150 wRC+, .385 ISO) is the top projected value on DraftKings ($2K), but also costs just $2.5K on FanDuel. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Freeland since last season.

It always seems like you can find a ton of value against Patrick Corbin. Maybe that’s because RHBs own a .383 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year (LHBs .330, .334), while sites continually fail to price bats like they’re playing at Coors when facing him. Projections for both sites agree that players may be able to find some of the best value on the board in Pittsburgh bats tonight, though Michael Chavis (129 wRC+, .244 ISO) is the only one who crosses sites for $2.5K or less on either. Bryan Reynolds (129 wRC+, .167 ISO) remains below $3K on FanDuel, while Daniel Vogelbach has struggled in limited opportunities against LHP (10 wRC+), but costs just $2.4K on DraftKings, while Diego Castillo (98 wRC+, .250 ISO) costs even less.

DraftKings projections believe your Angels (read Trout & Ohtani) stack can be made easier with Brandon Marsh (99 wRC+, .147 ISO) and Andrew Velazquez (42 wRC+, .135 ISO) both costing the minimum against Johnny Cueto (LHBs .325 wOBA, .317 xwOBA since last season). In Kansas City, Josh Smith (156 wRC+ vs RHP) is projected to lead off against Jon Heasley (batters from either side above a .360 xwOBA) for less than $2.5K on either site. He’s joined as a top projected value on FanDuel by Kole Calhoun (98 wRC+, .167 ISO vs RHP since LY) for just $2.3K.