DFS Alerts
Kluber and Verlander projected as top owned pitchers, but both have struggled early
Projected ownership numbers like Eric Thames best on DraftKings, but Matt Carpenter as the top 1B option on FanDuel, where each are severely under-priced. There are a plethora of viable 1B options tonight and perhaps Freddie Freeman (vs Jeremy Hellickson), projected for less than 5% ownership on either site, makes for a nice alternative. Corey Kluber and Justin Verlander are expected to be the most popular pitchers, but tonight might be a good night to fade the mound chalk, as both have had their struggles this year and there are several cheaper arms with some decent strikeout upside. Sean Manaea currently projects at 5% or below on either site. A really contrarian move might be to consider Johnny Cueto (13.5 SwStr%) at a much reduced price against an extremely cold Colorado lineup in an extremely cold park tonight. Premium subscribers can find many more pivots off popular plays on our Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Justin Verlander, Johnny Cueto, Sean Manaea, Eric Thames, Matt Carpenter, Freddie Freeman
Madison Bumgarner placed on DL after dirt bike accident
Bumgarner has been placed on the 10-day DL retroactive to April 19th due to a dirt bike accident which occurred on the Giants off day. He’s back resting at the team hotel in Colorado and will be reevaluated next week. Ken Rosenthal is reporting that it’s looking like Bumgarner could miss 6-8 weeks, but we should have a clearer timeline in the coming days.
As reported by: Andrew Baggarly
Justin Verlander boasts the highest K% (28.1% in 2016) among tonight's starting pitchers
Justin Verlander is looking to rebound from a dreadful performance his last time out against the Cleveland Indians where he allowed nine earned runs and surrendered an uncharacteristic three long balls in just four innings pitched. He’ll take the mound tonight against a much less imposing Minnesota Twins lineup that ranks in the bottom half of the Majors in wOBA (.305) and ISO (.124) against right-handed pitching thus far this season. Even in the small sample, these numbers align pretty similarly to their rankings from 2016, although they have been hitting for much less power to this point given the struggles of some of their big power bats like Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, and Max Kepler. The Twins are rolling out six left-handed batters in their lineup for Friday’s matchup with Verlander, which is actually fantastic news for his strikeout upside since he had a phenomenal 32.1% strikeout rate versus lefties last season to the tune of minuscule 25.4% hard hit rate when they did manage to make contact. Given Verlander’s dominance against lefties and his more than proficient abilities versus right-handed batters (19.2% K-BB%), the Twins hitters become easy fades on a full 15-game slate, while Verlander is set up to be a possibly overlooked starting pitching option that possesses massive upside for tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Wind blowing in from left at Citi Field, temperatures in the 40s at Coors
While Kevin has noted slight threats of rain in several spots tonight, conditions in New York (vs Washington) appear specifically difficult for hitters with winds blowing in from left at 15 mph and temperatures barely 50 degrees. With Cespedes and Zimmerman out, there’s little RH power in the game to begin with, but any that’s left takes a step down. Temperatures are rather low in most spots tonight, be especially Colorado, where it’s expected to be in the low 40s. Perhaps, with two good pitchers on the mound, this would be a good night to fade Coors (breeze blowing in from right 10 mph). Domed stadiums appear to be the best conditions for offense tonight and probably even better if the roof is open in Arizona. Although a pitcher’s park, it should be noted that the warmest spot tonight is in Los Angeles, where the game between the Blue Jays and Angels is said to kick off above 80 degrees. With Mat Latos and Alex Meyer on the mound tonight, it could play more batter friendly than normal. Be sure to look for Kevin’s evening update, the final word on all weather related game risk.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Mat Latos, Alex Meyer Sean Manaea and Nelson Cruz both among top projected players and values tonight
Nelson Cruz not only projects as one of the top three hitters on DraftKings (10.42), along with Paul Goldschmidt (10.89) and Mike Trout (10.4), but also projects as one of the top three values for just $4.2K (2.48 Pt/$/K). Those three are joined by Anthony Rizzo on FanDuel, as the only hitters projected for more than 13 points. Despite liking Cruz, the RotoGrinders Player Projections also see Sean Manaea as a top six pitcher and top five value on either site. While good players rarely advocate using a batter against your own pitcher, exposure to both sides of this matchup should be considered, but not necessarily in the same lineup. On DraftKings, Trevor Cahill rates as potentially the top value (3 Pt/$/K on a $5.6K cost). He’s ridden a breaking ball to an impressive 16.9 SwStr% through two starts.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Sean Manaea, Paul Goldschmidt, Mike Trout, Anthony Rizzo, Trevor Cahill RotoGrinders HR Predictor projects James McCann (6.53%) fourth most likely to go yard tonight
Trey Mancini and his small sample size against LHP (214 wRC+, .467) is vaulted to the head of the RotoGrinders HR Predictor tonight (8.89%). Perhaps expectations need to be lessened a bit with an unexpected venture into the seventh spot in the lineup. Eric Thames (7.24%) has a similar caveat, but his numbers just can’t be ignored (262 wRC+, .524 ISO vs RHP). Nelson Cruz (6.97%) is the first full sample size batter to show up (6.97%). Sean Manaea has shown elite bat missing skills, but RHBs have a 33.9 Hard% against him. The most interesting name might be fourth because it’s an extremely affordable Catcher. James McCann (6.53%) costs less than $3K on either site. He has a 130 wRC+, .292 ISO vs LHP since last year and Hector Santiago, who has a 37.5 Hard% against RHBs since 2015 and has allowed a 91.2 mph aEV this season, one of the higher marks in the league.
As reported by: RotoGrinders HR Predictor Other tagged players: Hector Santiago, Nelson Cruz, Sean Manaea, Trey Mancini, Eric Thames Cubs bats are one of the top places to look for hitting away from Coors Field
Tim Adleman is set to toe the rubber in tonight’s game against the Chicago Cubs after pitching decently well in his first start of the season against the Milwaukee Brewers, allowing just one earned run while punching out five in four innings of work. The currently available sample size of Adleman at the Major League level is still fairly limited, but he has shown early signs of being a reverse splits pitcher, posting a 21.0% strikeout to lefties compared to a 14.1% strikeout rate to right-handed batters. Adleman has also surrendered an above average hard contact rate (33.0%) and a massive amount of flyballs to left-handed batters (53.7%), putting power lefties like Anthony Rizzo (150 wRC+, .398 wOBA, .254 ISO vs RHP since 2016) and Kyle Schwarber (148 wRC+, .387 wOBA, .256 ISO career vs RHP) in amazing spots to potentially go deep in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark this evening. However, given Adleman’s low strikeout rate and 37.0% hard contact rate to righties, there is no reason to write-off Cubs right-handed bats like Kris Bryant (132 wRC+, .371 wOBA, .227 ISO vs RHP since 2016), Wilson Contreras (120 wRC+, .353 wOBA, .202 ISO vs RHP since 2016), and even Addison Russell as a part of a Cubs stack or one-offs. With all this said, the Cubs are shaping up to be one of the top places to look for offense away from Coors Field on Friday’s slate.
Other tagged players: Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Tim Adleman Jose Abreu has homered three times with a 94.1 mph aEV (12 BBE) vs Corey Kluber
Three batters have homered three times against the pitcher they are facing tonight. One (Joe Mauer vs Justin Verlander) may have too much old data attached to it. Statcast record just seven BBE in the matchup with an aEV of just 84.6 mph. Matt Carpenter has punished Wily Peralta (98.1 mph aEV, 13 BBE) with eight extra-base hits total in 46 PA. Jose Abreu is the surprise here, but he has hit Corey Kluber really well, including a 94.1 mph aEV on 12 BBE, despite striking out nine times as well in 35 PA with just a single walk. Kluber has struggled some to start the season and Abreu has hit RHP fairly well over the last few years (128 wRC+, .193 ISO since 2015) and should see almost no ownership on this 1B rich slate. Among those with at least 10 BBE recorded by Statcast, Carpenter’s aEV is exceeded only by Miguel Cabrera (98.9 mph aEV, 14 BBE) vs Hector Santiago, including two HRs. Yet another viable 1B option tonight.
As reported by: Statcast Matchups Other tagged players: Corey Kluber, Matt Carpenter, Wily Peralta, Joe Mauer, Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Hector Santiago LHBs in Milwaukee may serve as matchup pivot to higher implied run lines tonight
There are several offenses that appear to have strongly favorable matchups tonight, though few of those match up a large sample size with a favorable run scoring environment. For instance, Alex Cobb’s .493 wOBA against LHBs is worst on the board since he returned last year, but that encompasses only 80 batters faced and Tampa Bay is slightly pitcher friendly. Alex Meyer has allowed a .437 wOBA to just 52 RHBs and pitches in a more negative run environment. Tyler Glasnow, another pitcher friendly park, .374 wOBA to 67 LHBs, though his issues are mostly walk related. It’s not until we get down to Wily Peralta (LHBs .370 wOBA since 2015) that we get into some depth in a nice hitting environment. Matt Carpenter (148 wRC+, .251 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is going to put players to a decision at 1B for just $2.9K on FanDuel, especially since the next best matchup is LHBs against Adam Wainwright (.367 wOBA). With deGrom off the board, perhaps players will pay up for the bat on FanDuel, but Thames is likely to be the more popular choice for $900 left on DraftKings. Although both teams are implied for a bit below four and a half runs, Milwaukee might offer alternative stacking options to Coors, which does not even boast either of the top two projected run totals tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Eric Thames, Adam Wainwright, Wily Peralta, Alex Cobb, Alex Meyer, Tyler Glasnow Pair of low priced pitchers lead the slate in SwStr% this year
Looking at today’s slate, even before Jacob deGrom was scratched, you’d be hard pressed to correctly guess the top two SwStr rates this season (among those with at least two starts). Johnny Cueto (13.5%) and Dylan Bundy (13.2%) are third and fourth, but both are in difficult spots tonight. One is in Coors and one faces a Boston offense that rarely strikes out. Sean Manaea (28.2 K%, 15.6 SwStr%) has been getting some more attention recently, especially after leaving a no-hit bid in the fifth inning last time out after walking the bases loaded. He faces a powerful Seattle lineup, but in a friendly home park at a cost below $8K. The top SwStr rate on the board tonight belongs to Trevor Cahill (30.6 K%, 16.9 SwStr% through two starts), which probably comes as a shock to most players. Long known as a ground ball, high contact pitcher, it may be his new knuckle-curve (thrown 27.7% of the time this year) that’s responsible with a 29.8 SwStr%. It’s a pitch he picked up in the Cub bullpen a couple years back and has further refined in a starting roll. Considering that arms like Pomeranz and Richard have recently turned their careers around when San Diego picked them up off the scrap heap, perhaps there’s some hope here.
Other tagged players: Trevor Cahill, Johnny Cueto, Dylan Bundy, Drew Pomeranz Multiple infielders (one outfield bat) with a wRC+ above 300 over the last week
Eric Thames is topping most lists concerning tearing the cover off baseballs today and he is the week’s hottest hitter (354 wRC+, 48 Hard%), nothing a meeting with the declining Adam Wainwright (RHBs .367 wRC+, 32.9 Hard% since 2015) should do to interrupt, but he joins a list of four other bats with a wRC+ above 300 over the last week. Freddie Freeman (345 wRC+, 44.4 Hard%) is one of many viable 1B pivots and should continue to punish Jeremy Hellickson (LHBs .320 wOBA). Bryce Harper (340 wRC+, 38.1 Hard%) will now be facing Matt Harvey. Incidentally, he’s the only batter on this list with a hard hit rate below 40% over the last week. Jedd Gyorko (316 wRC+, 50 Hard%) will face the same handed Wily Peralta (RHBs .348 wOBA). He may be the outlier on this list, but does have an ISO above .200 against RHP since last season. Nolan Arenado (307 wRC+, 44.4 Hard%) does have a tough assignment against Johnny Cueto (RHBs .293 wOBA), but does get the generous Coors boost. Jose Ramirez (299 wRC+, 42.1 Hard%) deserves mention too, against the struggling Jose Quintana (RHBs .316 wOBA).
Other tagged players: Eric Thames, Bryce Harper, Jedd Gyorko, Nolan Arenado, Jose Ramirez Eric Thames now has a 262 wRC+ and .524 ISO vs RHP.
Eric Thames has put up a 262 wRC+ and .524 ISO against RHP this year. He has a 354 wRC+ and 48 Hard% overall in the last week of baseball and gets to face Adam Wainwright on the downside (LHBs .367 wOBA since 2015) at an affordable $3.8K still on DraftKings. While several 1B option grade out well today, it’s going to be very difficult to fade this sensation today. Trey Mancini should be back in the lineup at home against Drew Pomeranz (RHBs .296 wOBA since 2015). He’s pummeled LHP for a 214 wRC+ and .467 ISO in his short career so far. Among those with larger sample sizes, Nelson Cruz has a 185 wRC+ (.333 ISO vs LHP). He’s not in a great park in Oakland and Sean Manaea (RHBs .315 wOBA) has shown some elite bat missing skills, but RHBs have hit the ball hard (33.9%) against him. Paul Goldschmidt still hammers lefties (174 wRC+, .227 ISO since 2015) and is always in a great spot at home, but it’s a ground ball hitter (30.1 FB% vs LHP) vs a ground ball pitcher (48.6 GB% vs RHBs since 2015). Mike Trout (171 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP since 2015) in a nice spot against Mat Latos at home and Bryce Harper (167 wRC+, .284 ISO vs RHP since 2015) now facing Matt Harvey in New York, round out our list of top bats vs the handedness of the pitcher they are facing tonight.
Other tagged players: Trey Mancini, Nelson Cruz, Paul Goldschmidt, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper Jacob deGrom scratched from Friday's start; Matt Harvey to start tonight on normal rest
deGrom has been scratched from Friday’s start with the Nationals due to a stiff neck. Matt Harvey will now get the start on Friday night, and he’ll actually be pitching on normal rest which bodes well. His typical pre-start routine may be a bit off, but otherwise he should be all systems go. Harvey still isn’t a recommended DFS option outside of GPPs, as guys like Corey Kluber, Justin Verlander and Jon Lester all possess higher ceilings/floors.
As reported by: Ken Rosenthal Other tagged players: Matt Harvey Clarifying PHI lineup: Aaron Altherr replacing Michael Saunders (illness)
Altherr will replace Saunders in the outfield and the batting order, slotting 5th against RH Noah Syndergaard. None of the Phillies are recommended targets even on a shorter slate, as they’re up against one of the toughest right-handers in the league.
As reported by: Jim Salisbury Other tagged players: Michael Saunders Risk in BAL-CIN game increased to ORANGE in latest MLB weather forecast
The second line of storms heading towards Cincinnati tonight seems to be a bigger concern in Kevin Roth’s latest MLB weather forecast than originally anticipated. Currently, Roth has the game classified as ORANGE, which means that a delay is highly likely and a postponement cannot be entirely ruled out. Barring any significant changes prior to lock, both hitters and pitchers in this contest remain high-risk plays given the possibility of a postponement. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page