DFS Alerts
Diamondbacks RH power the best side to target in matchup with Clayton Richard
Clayton Richard is set to already make his fourth start of the season tonight against the Arizona Diamondbacks after experiencing mixed results over his first three outings. Richard is fairly dominant versus left-handed batters, as he induced an astronomical 80.4% groundball rate while allowing hard contact just 16.1% of the time. This removes Jake Lamb from consideration entirely and is the only left-handed bat in the Diamondbacks lineup this evening. Right-handers are more in play though given Richard’s low 11.5% strikeout rate and high 11.0% walk rate. Any time a pitcher is walking nearly as many hitters as he strikes out, a stack can never be entirely ruled out, especially on an abbreviated slate. However, righties with power upside like Paul Goldschmidt (163 wRC+, .426 wOBA, .201 ISO vs LHP in 2016/17) and Yasmany Tomas (177 wRC+, .446 wOBA, .317 ISO vs LHP in 2016/17) may be the more optimal route to take in tournaments opposed to a full stack.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Clayton Richard
James Paxton has a 24 K-BB% and 83.2 mph aEV through three starts.
James Paxton hasn’t allowed a run this year on a .163 BABIP, but the stuff has been amazing as well. Sustain a 24 K-BB% and 6.1 Hard-Soft% with a 15% popup rate and you might not give up many runs. An 83.2 mph aEV without a single barrel met so far are beyond elite and he transitions from one pitcher’s park to another in Oakland tonight. While his price is increasing (at least $9K on either site), he’s certainly a viable arm on either site. He’s the third best overall projected arm and second best value (via RotoGrinders Player Projections) on FanDuel, where he’s less expensive. Strangely, the A’s have stacked the deck with RHBs because Paxton has a pronounced reverse split (.356 wOBA, 34.5 Hard% vs RHBs – .279 wOBA, 30.5 Hard% vs LHBs since 2015). Adam Rosales (131 wRC+, .239 ISO vs LHP since last season) can’t be entirely overlooked in the two spot for just $2.4K on either site and Khris Davis does have the eighth highest ISO on the slate (.258) vs the handed type pitcher faced tonight since 2015. With Oakland projected for the third lowest run total tonight (3.5) and cool conditions in Oakland tonight, pitching is where players should side in this one.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Adam Rosales
Matt Carpenter returns to Cardinal lineup in Milwuakee
Matt Carpenter has missed the last few days due to a finger injury, but makes his return to the lineup against Zach Davies. Normally he’d be an easy player to roster (147 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP since 2015, a top 10 mark tonight against the handedness of pitcher being faced) in a great hitting environment, especially for LH power, but players may want to hedge considering that you need to be able to grip a bat well to generate power. Carpenter does have a 94.8 mph aEV in seven BBE against Davies, though this pitcher does not have much of a history against Cardinal bats yet, despite being in the same division. After a solid rookie season, Davies has struggled mightily out of the gate. His aEV is just 83.2 mph and he has generated 28.8% soft contact, but it’s all in a 4.2 K-BB% on a much reduced 7.0 SwStr%. He has almost no platoon split for his career, holding batters from both sides just below a .320 wOBA (33 Hard%), which is quite an accomplishment pitching in Milwaukee. With the Cardinals projected for almost four runs even, perhaps this is a spot where players should have limited exposure to St Louis bats while avoiding the struggling arm.
Other tagged players: Zach Davies Andrew Cashner had an atrocious 30.0% Hard-Soft% versus LHB in 2016
Andrew Cashner is coming off a respectable outing to his standards against the Seattle Mariners, allowing three earned runs in 5.1 innings pitched. He’s set to take on a Kansas City Royals lineup tonight that does lack some individual power from either side of the plate but does possess some above average hitters from the left side. Regardless, this is a pitcher that induced just a 12.5% soft contact rate last season while issuing free passes at a 10.2% rate. He was even worse against lefties, evidenced by his 11.0% soft contact rate that was accompanied by an 11.8% walk rate. The main problem arises in Cashner’s ability to keep the ball on the ground just 37.4% of the time versus left-handed batters, which should give contact-centric lefties like Eric Hosmer (.171 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17) and Alex Gordon (.157 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17) a better opportunity of leaving the yard than normal, especially on the road. However, not to bury the lead, righty-masher, Mike Moustakas (131 wRC+, .364 wOBA, .292 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), still headlines the batters to target in this Royals offense.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon, Andrew Cashner Bryce Harper projected to be most popular bat coming off a monster night
Bryce Harper is easily projected to be the most popular bat tonight, coming off a monster night on Wednesday. While he’s rarely a bad pick these days, he did have incredible career numbers going in against Teheran and who knows if the knuckleball will throw him off tonight. It’s not an impossible fade. With a surprising number of competent arms on the short slate, things are fairly well spread out, but Carlos Martinez is expected to be in more lineups than any other pitcher. While that’s fair with a top strikeout projection against the Brewers, there’s also some risk in that he’s been generating more fly balls and walked eight last time out. Among pitchers on the top half of the board, Aaron Nola is off to a great start and may be the contrarian play against a Mets offense that has struck out 23.5% of the time with just a 71 wRC+ vs RHP. Premium subscribers can use the Projected Ownership page to see projected rates for all players tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Carlos Martinez, Aaron Nola Carlos Martinez sits atop the Daily K Predictor (8.06) vs Brewers, but also walked eight last time out
Carlos Martinez sits in the top spot in the Daily K Predictor tonight (8.06) thanks mostly to facing the Brewers (25.6 K% vs RHP). He does have double digit strikeouts in two of his three starts, but just three in the one in between, while he added eight walks last time out. While he projects as a top five pitcher overall in the RotoGrinders Player Projections, there’s a certain variance factor present. He’s even lost more than 15 points off his GB rate (down to 40.9% this year). Martinez hasn’t always been so precise with LHBs (.323 wOBA, 32.1 Hard% since 2015) and Eric Thames remains one of the hottest bats in the league (244 wRC+, .487 ISO vs RHP, 368 wRC+ with six HRs over the last week). He’s also among the league leaders with eight Barrels (via Statcast).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Eric Thames Weather concerns in BAL-CIN game headline updated MLB weather forecast
The second line of storms heading towards Cincinnati tonight seems to be the primary concern in Kevin Roth’s latest MLB weather forecast. Currently, Roth has the game classified as YELLOW/ORANGE, which means he is leaning more towards a possible delay than a possible postponement. Barring any significant changes before lock, hitters in this contest should remain fully in play, though pitchers are obviously much riskier options anytime there is a chance of a rain delay. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Patrick Corbin has allowed a .355 wOBA to RHBs since 2015
Players should pay little attention to Patrick Corbin’s 2.81 ERA with estimators double that, as he’s walked as many as he’s struck out with just a 6.2 SwStr%. The favorable environment in San Diego may draw some to him as an SP2 on DraftKings at a low price (San Diego has the fourth lowest implied run line tonight – 3.7), but there’s neither upside, nor safety here. While nowhere close to a friendly park for power, Petco hasn’t been terrible to RH power in recent seasons. Wil Myers (121 wRC+, .172 ISO, 39.7 Hard% vs LHP since 2015) has a 141 wRC+ and .224 ISO at home since 2015 and projects just outside the top five on DraftKings (8.39 points via RotoGrinders Player Projections). Manuel Margot (118 wRC+, .179 ISO vs LHP), Hunter Renfroe (143 wRC+, .311 ISO at home), and Yangervis Solarte (101 wRC+, .153 ISO vs LHP since last season) may all be useful at low prices as well. Even Hedges and Cordoba can be considered as punt plays for the cost at scarce positions against a pitcher who has allowed a .355 wOBA and 35.5 Hard% to RHBs since 2015.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Patrick Corbin, Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Yangervis Solarte, Austin Hedges, Allen Cordoba Daniel Murphy scratched from the Nationals lineup tonight
Murphy has been officially scratched from the Washington Nationals lineup for tonight’s game against the Atlanta Braves due to an unreported circumstance. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Wilmer Difo, who will bat second and play shortstop. This will slide Grant Green over to second base, though his position in the batting order remains the same. To conclude the lineup changes, Ryan Zimmerman will now move up a spot and bat fourth, and Anthony Rendon will now hit out of the five-hole. The loss of one of the Nationals best left-handed bats does make Aaron Nola a slightly more appealing option but should still be reserved for tournament use only.
As reported by: Mark Zuckerman Danny Duffy has an elite 14.1 SwStr%, but does struggle against RH power (42 HRs since 2015)
Danny Duffy won’t retain the 93% strand rate that has allowed him to compile a 2.80 ERA, but he does have an elite 14.1 SwStr% despite a 22.1 K% just above average. The Rangers are a decent offense, which plays up in a favorable run scoring environment in Texas with temperatures expected to be in the high 70s. Duffy is projected as the third best pitcher and second best value on DraftKings tonight (RotoGrinders Player Projections) where he costs a very reasonable $8.2K. Duffy can struggle against RHBs (.327 wOBA, 34.5 Hard%, 42 HRs since 2015) and Mike Napoli (108 wRC+, .177 ISO vs LHP since 2015) has the most success against him with two homers in seven PAs, but that was long enough ago that there’s no Statcast data between the two and Duffy has become a much better overall pitcher in the last year. Players looking for a cheap bat should eye Ryan Rua (94 wRC+, .174 ISO vs LHP) on FanDuel for the minimum ($2K), where he projects as a top value (RotoGrinders Player Projections). With SS a bit light tonight, Elvis Andrus (141 wRC+, .168 ISO vs LHP since last season) is certainly worth a look as well.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Mike Napoli, Elvis Andrus, Ryan Rua Nationals currently own a 4.5 runs implied team total, the second-highest on the slate
R.A. Dickey has pitched reasonably well through two starts in this young season, pitching into the sixth and allowing three earned runs or less in each outing, but as with any knuckleballer, his stuff and fortunes can change at a moment’s notice. Tonight’ he’ll face off with a Washington Nationals lineup that provides plenty of power from both sides of the plate. A full stack is always in play against a knuckleballer like Dickey considering how quickly runs can pile up if he has an off game, but there are still several appealing one-off options in this lineup if opting not to stack. Dickey’s splits have been virtually identical to right-handed and left-handed handed hitters, though he does walk lefties at a slightly higher rate (10.1% in 2016) and surrenders significantly more fly balls (40.2% in 2016). Daniel Murphy (161 wRC+, .415 wOBA, .255 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17) and Bryce Harper (130 wRC+, .369 wOBA, .222 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17) are the definitive lefties to target, though both Adam Eaton (151 wRC+, .396 wOBA vs RHP in 2017) and Matt Wieters (142 wRC+, .383 wOBA, .205 ISO vs RHP in 2017) are viable as part of a stack. Ryan Zimmerman loses the platoon advantage versus Dickey but is off to a scorching start thus far, putting him firmly in play as a way to complete a stack or as a low-owned one-off option in tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Adam Eaton, Matt Wieters, Ryan Zimmerman, R.A. Dickey Noah Syndergaard top projected pitcher and top FanDuel value according to RotoGrinders Player Projections
Noah Syndergaard is tonight’s top projected pitcher on either site and even the top projected value on RotoGrinders Player Projections on FanDuel. He is, however, just third on the slate with 7.11 projected strikeouts according to the Daily K Predictor. Perhaps that’s because Thor has left two of his three starts early due to finger maladies (blister, torn nail), but he has lasted at least six innings in each start and the Mets insist he’s good to go tonight. Yet to allow a single walk or HR, Syndergaard boasts a 27.4 K-BB% with a 57.7 GB% and 84.1 mph aEV through three starts. While he still may have issues with Stolen Bases, he’s taken steps to speed up his time to the plate and has even caught a few this year. While it’s difficult to recommend a player against an elite pitcher on just the hope of an SB because he has to reach base first, Cesar Hernandez (99 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) would probably be your best bet there and $3K or less on either site. Freddy Galvis has two HRs (93.3 mph aEV on 8 BBE) is the only batter in the lineup with any success against Syndergaard, but the Phillies have the only implied run line below three on the slate (2.8). Kevin has called for a chance of rain, which hopefully holds off until after the game. In a pitcher’s park with a temperature in the high 50’s and wind blowing in lightly from right (9 mph), Syndergaard is clearly the play here.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis Mets counteract the RHB domination of Aaron Nola with four LHB that own a .200 ISO or greater since 2016
Aaron Nola is off to a solid start this season despite facing a dangerous Washington Nationals lineup in both of his outings thus far. He held them mostly in check each time, allowing three earned runs or less while striking out at least six both times out. Tonight, Nola will match up with a New York Mets squad that is equally dangerous at the plate and is able to counteract Nola’s prowess versus right-handed batters (27.8% K%, 3.5% BB% in 2016) with six left-handed bats. Nola is still slightly above average against lefties but his strikeout rate drops to 21.9% and his walk rate balloons to 8.8% while surrendering a bit higher than average 30.1% hard contact rate. This is enough to remove him as a starting pitcher we can utilize in cash games, though he may still be worth a look in tournaments on what is a short main slate given the strikeout potential littered up and down this Mets lineup. On the other hand, a Mets stack is far from recommended, though if targeting one-offs for their power potential, Jay Bruce (141 wRC+, .379 wOBA, .268 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), Michael Conforto (120 wRC+, .347 wOBA, .235 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), Asdrubal Cabrera (115 wRC+, .340 wOBA, .199 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), and Curtis Granderson (.224 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17)lead the short list of lefties with enough upside to pay off their salaries in tournaments.
Other tagged players: Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera, Curtis Granderson, Aaron Nola Kemp returns, Swanson sits against Strasburg in Atlanta
Stephen Strasburg is just behind Noah Syndergaard in terms of cost, as the second most expensive pitcher on the slate tonight. While there are several young pitchers off to strong starts on the slate tonight, Strasburg could fly underneath the radar despite having a highest strikeout projection than Thor on the RotoGrinders K Predictor (7.36 vs 7.11). However, he falls to second (behind Syndergaard) in terms of overall RotoGrinders Player Projections. Atlanta is an opponent he is familiar with as Freddie Freeman leads all players with four career HRs (47 PAs) against the pitcher they are facing tonight. He does have just an 88.7 mph aEV on merely four Statcast recorded BBE in the matchup. Freeman’s 161 wRC+ (.276 ISO) vs RHP since 2015 is 4th best on the slate against the handed type pitcher being faced tonight (min. 30 PA), while his 425 wRC+ (3 HR, 53.3 Hard%) by far makes him the hottest bat on the slate over the last week. His nine Barrels this season is also tied for the major league lead. Adonis Garcia is moved into the second slot today with Dansby Swanson sitting. Garcia is actually the only batter with at least 10 BBE recorded against Strasburg and although he has no extra-base hits, he does hold a 97.2 mph aEV in those matchups. Matt Kemp returns for the home team and does have the second best ISO (.198) in the linneup against RHP since 2015. It may be best to stick to just Freeman or side with a pitcher who has gone exactly seven innings in each of his three starts with eight Ks in each of his last two in this one, considering Garcia’s 76 career wRC+ vs RHP. The Braves have an implied run line of just 3.3, second lowest on the slate. Conditions appear to be neutral with temperatures in the 70s and barely a breeze expected. We do not yet know how the new park in Atlanta will play with just a handful of games being played there so far.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Adonis Garcia, Matt Kemp Smith, Mancini, Castillo all OUT of Baltimore lineup tonight, Kim leads off in Cincinnati
Seth Smith, Trey Mancini & Welington Castillo are on the bench for a Baltimore offense projected by Vegas for 4.6 runs, in a virtual tie for the top spot of the night. While it may seem that the biggest factor against them is Kevin’s early weather report (ORANGE/YELLOW), Scott Feldman has done a good job managing contact (23.3 Hard%) and has missed more bats than expected (9.5 SwStr%), though his 12.2% Barrels/BBE are highest on the slate. Feldman has also held batters from each side to a sub-.330 wOBA, sub-30 Hard% since 2015. Chris Davis (142 wRC+, .308 ISO vs RHP) is the only qualified batters on the slate that does have an ISO above .300 against the handed type pitcher being faced tonight (since 2015, 30 PA min.). He and Mark Trumbo (123 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP) in the upper portion of the RotoGrinders HR Predictor tonight with a 5.58% chance of going yard. In addition, Manny Machado (132 wRC+, .240 ISO vs RHP) finds himself as the #3 overall bat according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections, while Hyun-Soo Kim (126 wRC+ career vs RHP) shows up as one of the top projected values on FanDuel for just $2.5K. The good news, from a weather standpoint is temperatures near 80 at first pitch with the potential for a breeze out towards left field if it does play. This is a park that is already very power friendly. This is a matchup where players should probably side with bats over arm if forced to choose, but Baltimore bats could potentially be not much better than accurately valued by some expensive price tags.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Scott Feldman, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis