DFS Alerts
Kyle Seager (hip) scratched today; Mike Freeman will start at third base
Seager has officially been scratched from the Seattle Mariners for today’s game against the Oakland Athletics due to a sore hip. Mike Freeman will replace him at third base and bat eighth. This lineup change slides Dan Vogelbach up to the five-hole vacated by Seager, while Guillermo Heredia moves up one spot to seventh. Other than making sure Seager isn’t in your lineups, this news does very little to alter the fantasy landscape of the Sunday afternoon slate.
As reported by: Bob Dutton Other tagged players: Mike Freeman
Mike Leake owns a -6.2% Hard-Soft% through three starts in 2017
Mike Leake has been fantastic to start the 2017 campaign, pitching into at least the seventh inning in each of his first three outings while striking out at least six in two of them. The one strikeout performance against the Pittsburgh Pirates has brought his strikeout rate back down to an uninspiring 17.7%, but he still did surrender just one earned run in that contest. This afternoon, Leake will take the mound on the road against a free-swinging Milwaukee Brewers lineup, which should help increase his strikeout and daily fantasy ceiling in this matchup. He also has pinpoint control and a 57.1% ground ball rate to this point, which should assist him in limiting any damage Milwaukee is able to create this afternoon. Even though a 1.3% walk rate is unsustainable, it is not all that much lower than the 4.0% walk rate Leake posted last season, suggesting that he is not in line for any sort of massive negative regression. Nothing in Leake’s advanced metrics suggest that he is suddenly a completely different pitcher this season than in seasons past, but on a slate that is lacking quality starting pitching options outside of Danny Salazar, he becomes an intriguing tournament pivot as a salary-saving option on FanDuel or a safe SP2 on DraftKings at his current price tag for cash games or tournaments. Clearly, there are better places to look for hitting on the main slate but taking a shot in tournaments at Brewers power bats like Eric Thames (228 wRC+, .519 wOBA, .468 ISO vs RHP), Ryan Braun (126 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .238 ISO vs RHP since 2016) or Travis Shaw (.314 ISO vs RHP) as one-offs aren’t entirely off the table.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Eric Thames, Ryan Braun, Travis Shaw No rain concerns in Sunday's latest MLB weather forecast
It’s a rare great day for baseball weather-wise around the Major Leagues with every game checking with zero rain concerns. Something of note, however, is that the temperature in Denver is expected to be hovering right around 80 degrees at game time, which makes the already elite hitting environment of Coors Field that much more lucrative for daily fantasy. If playing a slate that has Coors Field as an option, it would be wise to have at least some exposure to that game between San Francisco and Colorado. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Zack Cozart (sore wrist) scratched today, Patrick Kivlehan will replace him
Cozart has been officially scratched from the Cincinnati Reds lineup for today’s game against the Chicago Cubs due to a sore wrist. Replacing him in the lineup, Patrick Kivlehan will play left field and bat sixth, while Jose Peraza will slide over to shortstop and Scooter Gennett will come in from the outfield and play second base. However, the rest of the Reds batting order remains the same with Kivlehan just slotting directly into Cozart’s spot in the order.
Other tagged players: Patrick Kivlehan Cubs bats are the definitive top offense to target on the main slate
To put it mildly, Bronson Arroyo has not been great in his first three starts of a clearly failing comeback attempt at the ripe age of 40. This afternoon, he gets the pleasure of facing the defending World Series champions and arguably the best lineup in the Majors. The one thing that Arroyo has done will to this point is limit hard contact to left-handed batters (23.8% HH%), but that is likely more of a result of a microscopic sample size than an actual trend, evidenced by his 11.1% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate. He’s also been just as bad versus right-handed batters, striking them out only 14.6% of the time while surrendering a 45.2% fly ball rate and a 36.4% hard hit rate. After evaluating the aforementioned statistics, it really is difficult to imagine Arroyo shutting down the Cubs offense this afternoon and hitters from both sides of the plate are firmly in play for all formats. Anthony Rizzo (150 wRC+, .398 wOBA, .259 ISO since 2016) and Kris Bryant (129 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .223 ISO since 2016) are the clear top Chicago bats virtually any time the Cubs are facing a weak right-handed pitcher, closely followed by Kyle Schwarber (147 wRC+, .387 wOBA, .252 ISO career vs RHP), who seems to finally be breaking out of his early-season slump. Although unexciting to roster, Ben Zobrist (120 wRC+, .354 wOBA since 2016) looks to be the top candidate to round out the stack in tournaments given his batting position in the order and relative succes versus righties. All in all, everything adds up to the Cubs hitters being the definitive best options to target on the main slate, and frankly, it’s not even close.
Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist, Bronson Arroyo Salvador Perez (neck stiffness) scratched tonight; Drew Butera will start at catcher
Perez has officially been scratched from tonight’s game against the Texas Rangers due to neck stiffness. Drew Butera will replace him at catcher and bat ninth while Whit Merrifield slides up to the five-hole and Christian Colon will not hit eighth. Despite hitting ninth, Butera immediately becomes an interesting punt option at catcher, especially a part of a “wrap-around” Royals stack, considering the solid line of 128 wRC+, .368 wOBA, .206 ISO he posted versus right-handed pitching since 2016.
As reported by: Rustin Dodd Other tagged players: Drew Butera Start of tonight's BOS-BAL game will be delayed due to inclement weather
The start of tonight’s game between the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles will be delayed to inclement weather, according to the Orioles verified Twitter account. There has yet to be any kind of announcement of scheduled start time, but according to Kevin Roth’s latest weather forecast, the game should be expected to resume at some point and should be able to play through should the teams choose.
As reported by: Official Twitter Account of the Baltimore Orioles No potential rain issues worse than YELLOW in latest MLB weather forecast
There are only a couple of weather situations to monitor across the Majors this evening. Both the Braves-Phillies and Red Sox-Orioles games are currently classified as YELLOW and are experiencing effects from the same weather system. The YELLOW classification does mean that Kevin Roth can not rule out the possibility of a rain delay in either contest, which makes starting pitchers much riskier to roster should the delay happen mid-game. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Royals bats likely to be overlooked versus Nick Martinez and his career 3.7% K-BB%
Nick Martinez will be making his first start of the season in tonight’s game against the Kansas City Royals. To put it mildly, Martinez is not a Major League caliber starting pitcher, evidenced by a career 11.9% strikeout rate to lefties and a 13.4% strikeout rate to right-handed batters leading to a 5.17 SIERA. The low strikeouts combined with a minuscule 34.7% ground ball rate to left-handed batters and inability to induce soft contact or limit hard contact has led to a career .348 wOBA to lefties and .358 wOBA to righties. In other words, this is a great spot to target a Royals offense, that is on the road with a significant ballpark upgrade, that should go overlooked with other high total games on the board. The primary reason they will likely fly under the radar is that they are typically an underwhelming lineup to target given their lack of overall power in a pitcher’s park at home but are more than playable on Saturday’s slate in a matchup with an equally underwhelming pitcher on the road. Mike Moustakas (129 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .282 ISO vs RHP since 2016) is the Royals bat that clearly possesses the highest upside, but Eric Hosmer (113 wRC+, .343 wOBA, .169 ISO since 2016) also hits right-handed pitching well and should have an easier time launching the ball in the air against Martinez, effectively adding to his home run probability. Brandon Moss (.302 ISO) is off to a horrendous start out of the gate this season, but he did exhibit massive power in 2016 versus righties and should have an easier time making contact in this matchup. The remaining Royals hitters like Salvador Perez, Lorenzo Cain, and Alex Gordon are better utilized to round out a stack in tournaments, though a case can always be made for Perez (.196 ISO vs RHP since 2016) as a one-off considering the typical dearth of options at the catcher position on a nightly basis.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer, Brandon Moss, Nick Martinez Carlos Carrasco headlines the starting pitching options on the main slate
Carlos Carrasco is looking to keep his solid start of the 2017 campaign rolling in tonight’s game against the unimposing Chicago White Sox lineup. In fact, one of Carrasco’s first three starts came against this same White Sox squad and he was dominant, allowing just one earned run and striking out seven in seven innings of work. Targeting the White Sox with opposing starting pitchers is no longer a secret after Corey Kluber’s gem on Friday night, but they fully deserve this notoriety, as they rank in the bottom-five in the Majors thus far in wRC+ (63), wOBA (.256), and strikeout rate (25.1%). The only prevalent offensive category they don’t check-in among the bottom-five is in ISO (.131), where they rank an unimpressive 24th. So, in other words, this is the perfect opportunity to attack this hapless Chicago offense with a pitcher like Carrasco, who owned a 25.0% strikeout rate last season, especially on a slate dearth of other high-end pitching options. To put the proverbial icing on the cake, Carrasco is currently the largest money line favorite on the main slate at -210 and the White Sox are currently implied to score a measly 3.2 runs as a team. Carrasco is an easy lock and load for cash games, don’t overthink it.
As reported by: FanGraphs Minor rain concern for afternoon games in latest MLB weather forecast
Outside of a few light scattered showers in the Cubs-Reds game, which is currently classified as YELLOW, there is not much weather to monitor until we get to the Nationals-Mets games. Kevin Roth is a little less optimistic about the weather risk in this matchup as he currently has the game listed as YELLOW/ORANGE. He does believe that the game will play through if the teams so choose, but this obviously makes the starting pitchers much riskier options. This is a situation that will need to be re-evaluated closer to the game’s lock time, so be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Jake Arrieta has a 2.94 SIERA thus far in 2017, a full run better than last season
Jake Arrieta is off to a very steady start this season, posting two quality starts in his first three outings and just missing out on a third by a third of an inning pitched. He has also been fairly consistent in the strikeout department thus far, averaging basically a punch out per inning, and even flashing double-digit strikeout upside in a road matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers. This afternoon, he’s set to take the mound against a Cincinnati Reds lineup that generally lacks some power outside of Joey Votto (.249 ISO since 2016) and Adam Duvall (.257 ISO since 2016) versus right-handed pitching. The Reds also own the lowest implied team total on the slate, checking-in at 3.2 runs, which just adds to Arrieta’s already high floor. Arrieta had a little bit of a down year in 2016, only notching a 23.9% strikeout rate that was still accompanied by a 10.5% swinging strike rate, which fell relatively in line with his prior two seasons. If Arrieta can maintain close to his current 28.8% strikeout rate and normalize his ground ball and soft contact tendencies once again, there is nothing to suggest that he can’t regain his Cy Young form for the remainder of the season. Arrieta’s cash game viability on the early slate really is site dependent, as there is only a $500 salary difference between himself and Michael Pineda on DraftKings but, on FanDuel, there is an $1800 difference in salary making it much more difficult to justify Arrieta as the cash game staple over Pineda considering their similar upside. However, if going for safety, it’s more than justifiable to spend up for Arrieta if able to complement the rest of your lineup with viable, salary-saving hitting options.
As reported by: FanGraphs Mike Zunino scratched from the Mariners lineup tonight; Carlos Ruiz will start
Zunino has been scratched from the Seattle Mariners lineup for tonight’s game against the Oakland Athletics. There reportedly is no injury or health concern with Zunino, so it appears to just be a late lineup change for Seattle this evening. Carlos Ruiz will replace him in the lineup at catcher and is expected to bat eighth, though no official lineup has yet to be released by the team. The loss of Zunino from the Mariners lineup does little to alter the projected fantasy value of Athletics starting pitcher, Sean Manaea, or the remaining members of the Seattle batting order.
Other tagged players: Carlos Ruiz Joc Pederson a low cost leadoff option, Gyorko a cheap cleanup bat for bargain hunters
Eric Thames ($3.8K on DraftKings) and his counterpart, Matt Carpenter ($2.9K on FanDuel), are top value plays tonight and perhaps that’s all players will need to find their ideal lineup, but they are certainly not the only low cost bats that can be considered tonight. Josh Reddick (144 wRC+, .171 ISO vs RHP since last year) has a 219 wRC+ over the last week and costs just $3.3K on DK against a struggling Alex Cobb (LHBs .493 wOBA since returning from surgery). FanDuel players could consider a middle of the lineup mini-stack, adding cleanup hitter Jedd Gyorko for $2.5K. He has a 126 wRC+, .301 ISO vs RHP since last season and Wily Peralta has fared not much better against same handed hitters (.348 wOBA) than LHBs (.370 wOBA) since 2015. Joc Pederson ($3.8K DK, $2.5K FD) leads off for the Dodgers in Arizona tonight. He has a 139 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP since last year. Jordy Mercer and Guillermo Heredia are minimally priced leadoff options as well, in less friendly spots. Wilmer Difo bats out of the second spot, now against Matt Harvey, for $2.5K or less on either site. Players looking for a punt behind the plate could do worse than James McCann. He has shown immense power against LHP (.292 ISO since last year) and faces one who allows a lot of hard contact to RHBs (37.5% since 2015) and grades out well in the RotoGrinders HR Predictor tonight and costs less than $3K on either site.
Other tagged players: Jedd Gyorko, Josh Reddick, Eric Thames, Matt Carpenter, Jordy Mercer, Guillermo Heredia, Wilmer Difo, James McCann
Kevin's late forecast increases risk in Colorado and Texas
Several spots have at least some risk of rain tonight, but Kevin has downgraded the forecast for both Texas and Colorado to YELLOW/ORANGE, increasing the risk for at least a delay in both spots. Coors will also be near freezing tonight, making it an easier fade with two strong pitchers on the mound than most nights. Players considering Cole Hamels against a weakened Kansas City lineup may have to think twice now. Other spots with lesser potential for a delay are Atlanta Philadelphia, Boston Baltimore, and Chicago (NL) Cincinnati. Players can read the full report on our Weather page and be sure to follow Kevin on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for further updates.