DFS Alerts
LHBs from either side have a great matchup in Washington/Atlanta game
Among pitchers who have pitched prior to this season, it appears the best offensive matchups occur for LHBs on either side of the Washington at Atlanta game. Since 2015, LHBs have a .355 wOBA against fly baller Julio Teheran and a .354 wOBA against ground baller Joe Ross (.354 wOBA), except Ross doesn’t necessarily generate ground balls when facing lefties. In fact, his 36.4 GB% against them is even lower than Teheran’s 37.9 GB% facing LHBs. Those looking to stack can take the top half of each lineup, which is predominantly left-handed with Inciarte, the red-hot Freddie Freeman, and Nick Markakis from Atlanta. Eaton, Harper and Murphy from Washington, though there’s one extra outfielder there. All that’s remaining is the left side of the infield (perhaps Wilmer Difo as a punt SS) and a catcher. Jhoulys Chacin’s .350 wOBA against LHBs is the next best matchup on the board, but in a more difficult hitting environment for Diamondback lefties in San Diego.
Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Adam Eaton, Wilmer Difo, Joe Ross, Julio Teheran, Ender Inciarte, Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis
Pair of part-timers (Mancini, Avila) lead this week's hottest hitters
This week’s list of hottest hitters include a couple of part-timers and not a single outfielder (min. 10 PAs). Trey Mancini has just 13 PAs over the last week, but has done the most with them, homering four times for a 508 wRC+. He’s unconfirmed, but could be in the lineup in an NL park against rookie lefty Amir Garrett. Alex Aliva has a 100% hard hit rate and two HRs on six batted balls (407 wRC+). Freddie Freeman (397 wRC+, 61.5 Hard%, 3 HRs) is the top bat among regulars. He’s expensive, but should be popular against Nats RHP Joe Ross, who struggles against LHBs. Jose Altuve (295 wRC+, 50 Hard%) faces JC Ramirez and Jose Ramirez (289 wRC+, 40 Hard%, 3 HRs) needs to make it through some weather issues to see Adalberto Mejia tonight. Austin Romine (279 wRC+) could serve as a punt Catcher against rookie Dylan Covey, but may be a bit of a fluke on this list, as he appears with just a 15.4 Hard% and 16.4 SwStr%.
Other tagged players: Alex Avila, Freddie Freeman, Jose Altuve, Jose Ramirez, Austin Romine Joey Votto (167 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015), likely assured of at least walks vs Ubaldo Jimenez
There are eight projected starters tonight with a wRC+ of at least 150 against the handed type pitcher they are facing since 2015 (min. 30 PA). Not all of them have favorable matchups (Lorenzo Cain – 159 wRC+ vs LHP – is facing Madison Bumgarner for instance, while Mike Trout – 177 wRC+ vs LHP – faces Dallas Keuchel. In taking matchup, park effects, and weather into consideration tonight, it might be difficult to find strong pairings under this method alone today. Joey Votto (167 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP) might be the best of those in Cincinnati against Ubaldo Jimenez (.337 wOBA vs LHBs), but you just know walks are going to be involved, which aren’t bad, but don’t maximize point potential. Bryce Harper (165 wRC+, .278 ISO vs RHP) faces a good pitcher (Julio Teheran), but one who does struggle against LHBs (.355 wOBA) with a lot of contact in the air. Freddie Freeman (160 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP) is on the other side of that matchup against a pitcher (Joe Ross, who also struggles against LHBs (.354 wOBA, 35.9 Hard%). Chris Young (158 wRC+, .244 ISO vs LHP) is one of two bargains here, against the erratic Francisco Liriano (.314 wOBA vs RHBs) along with Brandon Guyer (150 wRC+, .188 ISO vs LHP) in a game that has weather potential vs rookie Adelberto Mejia (.365 wOBA vs RHBs). Miguel Cabrera (157 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP) belongs in this group, but faces Chris Archer (.291 wOBA vs RHBs).
Other tagged players: Ubaldo Jimenez, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Lorenzo Cain, Chris Young, Miguel Cabrera, Brandon Guyer Felix Hernandez top SP option of afternoon games
Felix Hernandez and the Mariners host Edinson Volquez and the Marlins later this afternoon and Hernandez is arguably the top SP option of the four game slate as his velocity has been trending upwards and he’s started to show signs of the Felix of old. Volquez can be safely faded as there are four clearly better options and he’s facing a tough Mariners lineup. The Marlins lineup, outside of Giancarlo Stanton (who is too pricey for this match up), can be faded as well. Volquez allows a .335+ wOBA to both sides of the plate and the top five of the Mariners order (Dyson, Haniger, Cano, Cruz, and Seager) are all elitish options that can be utilized as part of a team stack or on their own.
As reported by: Andre Fernandez on Twitter Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz
Texas at Oakland game has highest run total of the four afternoon games
Avoid the pitchers and target the hitters should be the motto of this game as two extremely low strikeout pitchers in Martin Perez and Jesse Hahn take the mound today in Oakland. Despite it being a pitcher-friendly park the game has the highest run total (still a modest 8 1/2 runs) of the four games. Neither pitcher is an option but we can target bats from both lineups. Hahn allows a .403 wOBA to LH batters putting Nomar Mazara and Rougned Odor firmly in play as top options. Carlos Gomez, Shin-Soo Choo, and Mike Napoli are viable secondary options. Martin Perez struggles against RH bats and the A’s have loaded up their lineup with six righties at the top of the order. Khris Davis, Ryon Healy, and Trevor Plouffe are elite bats to target with Rajai Davis and Josh Phegley secondary options.
As reported by: TR Sullivan on Twitter Other tagged players: Trevor Plouffe, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor Michael Wacha and Gerrit Cole face off in St. Louis this afternoon
Two of the better pitching options of the four game afternoon slate toe the mound today in St. Louis as Gerrit Cole faces the struggling Cardinals offense and Michael Wacha faces the Starling Marte-less Pirates (he was suspended for 80 games yesterday). Both are similar pitchers but Wacha gets the nod as the better option as a home favorite – he is a reverse splits pitcher allowing a .361 wOBA to RH bats the past two seasons. Gregory Polanco and Andrew McCutchen are viable, but not elite, options from the Pirates lineup. From the Cardinals only Matt Carpenter (he is playing today and batting 3rd) and Dexter Fowler are worth a look.
As reported by: St. Louis Cardinals official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Gerrit Cole, Matt Carpenter, Andrew McCutchen Kyle Hendricks and Cubs huge favorites over visiting Brewers this afternoon
Despite the fact that his team is a prohibitive favorite and having favorable strikeout upside, Kyle Hendricks is a risky proposition today facing a Brewers team that has been mashing the baseball. Hendricks has upside and is worth being in a GPP lineup or two if you are playing multiple lineups but the risk is also there given the Brewers potent lineup. The other SP in the game, Tommy Milone, can easily be faded as he’s not very good and allows hard contact to both sides of the plate. The hot-hitting Eric Thames and his unsustainable hitting (.500 wOBA, .400 ISO vs RHP) leads the Brewers options. Jonathan Villar and Travis Shaw are also worth consideration while Ryan Braun would normally be worth rostering but he is not in the lineup today. Kyle Schwarber sits today for the Cubs and Matthew Szczur leads off in his place and is a top value option facing Milone. Ben Zobrist is also resting but Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, and Wilson Contreras are all solid options from the Cubs top of the order.
As reported by: Milwaukee Brewers official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Kyle Hendricks, Eric Thames, Ryan Braun, Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist Phil Hughes is up to his old tricks, surrendering a 52.8% FB% and 50.0% HH% through two starts in 2017
One of the top places to look for home run potential comes to us from Target Field, where Josh Tomlin and Phil Hughes are set to face off against each other in a matchup that features two of the worst pitchers last season in terms of home runs allowed. Hughes has posted a 1.68 HR/9 each of the past two seasons and doesn’t seem to have the ability anymore to turn that trend around, evidenced by his low 13.1% strikeout in 2016. He does allow a higher fly ball rate (45.8%) and more home runs (1.94 HR/9) to right-handed batters but allows a higher wOBA to lefties (.412). In other words, hitters from both sides of the plate are firmly in play as one-offs or part of a stack in tournaments. Edwin Encarnacion is off to a slow start this season but has still traditionally crushed fly ball pitchers and had a 132 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .264 ISO versus right-handed pitching in 2016, elevating him to a top option in this Indians lineup. The other power bat to focus in on from this Cleveland squad is Carlos Santana (142 wRC+, .384 wOBA, .278 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), but unfortunately, both can’t be rostered in the same lineup on FanDuel, though they each work perfectly well as one-offs given their power upside. However, on DraftKings, it is certainly possible and viable to roster both in the same lineup if looking to attack the home run tendencies of Phil Hughes. A stack rounded out by Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, and Jose Ramirez may not be the worst idea, though there seem to be more optimal situations to target from an upside perspective on Tuesday’s slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Carlos Santana, Phil Hughes
Seth Smith & Kevin Pillar are low cost leadoff options on Tuesday night
While usually looking to cut off bargains at $3K on DK & $2.5K on FD, there aren’t many tonight, but there are a few player just above those marks today that are difficult to ignore. Mike Moustakas ($3.2K DK) should be a top 3B play with a 134 wRC+ and .302 ISO vs RHP since the beginning of last season (injury shortened). His opponent, Matt Cain has allowed a .400 wOBA to LHBs since 2015. Taylor Motter (also $3.2K on DK) is facing a LHP (Wei-Yin Chen .345 wOBA vs RHBs since 2015) and has a 311 wRC+ over the last week. Michael Conforto ($2.7K on FD) is leading off against a contact prone RHP (Zach Eflin .388 wOBA vs LHBs) and has a .245 career ISO against RHP. Austin Romine (317 wRC+ last seven days) bumps up a spot to seventh against Miguel Gonzalez and costs just $2.6K on DraftKings, a position players may need to punt tonight. Kevin Pillar (89 wRC+, .135 ISO vs LHP since 2016) leads off against Boston spot starter Brian Johnson and costs just $2.4K on FanDuel, where Manny Pina (281 wRC+ last seven days) might be your punt catcher, batting sixth against Brett Anderson for $2.3K. Seth Smith ($2.6K) is probably going to be incredibly popular leading off against Bronson Arroyo. Michael Saunders (101 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP since 2016) bats fifth against Zack Wheeler for $2.3K. Unlike previous days, there’s just one near minimum leadoff hitter tonight and that’s Jaff Decker ($2.1K DK/$2.3K FD), but he’s going up against Yu Darvish.
Other tagged players: Taylor Motter, Michael Conforto, Austin Romine, Kevin Pillar, Manny Pina, Michael Saunders, Jaff Decker Not much to monitor in latest MLB weather update, though WSH-ATL is YELLOW/GREEN
Outside of a few isolated pop-up showers and storms outside of Atlanta for the Nationals-Braves game, there is basically zero weather concerns around the Major Leagues this evening. Kevin Roth currently has the rain situation in Atlanta classified as YELLOW/GREEN, meaning he can’t fully rule out the chance of a delay but is confident that the game will play through fine given the current radar situation. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Scherzer, Baltimore bats projected to be among most popular plays tonight
Max Scherzer is going to be the chalk tonight with upwards of 35-40% ownership potentially, though it’s not Yu Darvish, but Luis Severino projecting to be the second most popular pitcher according to the Projected Ownership page (premium subscription required). If looking for a less popular arm with some upside, Shelby Miller has been missing bats at a league average rate and projects for 5% ownership or less on either site in San Diego. Baltimore bats are easily expected to be the most popular on either site tonight. With such and wide open slate, perhaps this is the night to take advantage of some MVP caliber bats, who may not be as popular as they usually are in decent spots. Bryce Harper and Mike Trout are both projected to be in only around 10% of lineups. Premium subscribers can use the Projected Ownership page to find potentially low owned pivots to many of the most popular players every night.
As reported by: Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Luis Severino, Yu Darvish, Shelby Miller, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper Luis Severino has an absurd 31.3% K-BB% through two starts this season
Luis Severino is coming off a fantastic start his last time out against the Tampa Bay Rays, allowing just two earned runs while punching out 11 in seven innings of work. Tonight, he’s set to toe the rubber against a Chicago White Sox squad that will be without one of their top bats in Todd Frazier, making their lineup all that much less imposing than they already were. The sample size is extremely small through just two starts in 2017, but Severino has posted some elite numbers to this point, evidenced by his 2.00 SIERA that is accompanied by a 35.4% strikeout rate and 4.2% walk rate. Now, a strikeout rate north of 30% is likely unsustainable for any young pitcher but especially a pitcher with just a 10.9% swinging strike rate like Severino has induced thus far this season. However, it does imply that he should be able to sustain a strikeout rate at or above the 24.2% rate he posted in AAA last season. This means he can easily be considered an above average strikeout pitcher at this point in his brief Major League career. These stats are all well and good for Severino, but his ownership on Tuesday’s slate is likely to reach astronomical levels on two-pitcher sites like DraftKings where he is priced at a measly $6.5K, making him the perfect battery mate to pair with Max Scherzer in all formats. A tournament fade on DraftKings of one or even both (if feeling lucky) is strongly advised. Although, on FanDuel, where Severino is more reasonably priced, he becomes a much more interesting option as a tournament pivot away from Scherzer in order to be able to afford some of the higher priced hitting options that Scherzer lineups will not physically be able to roster, effectively creating a natural contrarian roster build. All in all, Severino is the furthest thing from a bad play, but ownership levels just need to be taken into account for large-field tournaments, especially on DraftKings, given the variance day-to-day in daily fantasy baseball.
As reported by: FanGraphs Eugenio Suarez scratched, Scooter Gennett to play 3rd base and bat 7th
Suarez has been scratched from the Cincinnati Reds lineup due to neck stiffness. Scooter Gennett will start in his place at third base and bat seventh. This lineup change also effectively slides Scott Schebler and Zack Cozart up to the fifth and sixth hole in the order respectively. Given Kevin Gausman’s pronounced reverse splits to this point in his young Big League career, losing a right-handed bat for left-handed one may actually be an upgrade to his already good matchup with this inconsistent Reds lineup.
As reported by: C. Trent Rosecrans Other tagged players: Scooter Gennett
Improved hitting conditions at Wrigley tonight, with Kansas City looking favorable as well
It’s a bit cooler, predicted to be in the 50s with winds up to 15 mph blowing in from right in both NY parks tonight, potentially affecting LH power a bit in those parks tonight. Cincinnat is a little warmer (near 70) and it’ll likely take more than a 10 mph wind in from right to keep Bronson Arroyo’s pitches in the park. It’s about 15-20 degrees warmer at Wrigley tonight with wind blowing out lightly to left (11 mph), perhaps enhancing hitting conditions tonight in baseball’s most unstable environment. Minnesota remains cold (50s), but wind may be blowing out to right at 14 mph. Kansas City might have some of the most favorable hitting conditions with temperatures in the low 70s and an 11 mph wind blowing out to left. It’s actually the top run scoring environment in play tonight (106), according to Seamheads.com 3 Year Park Factors. West Coast games are all a bit cooler with an 11 mph wind blowing out to right in Oakland the only meaningful gusts. Be sure to check back later for Kevin’s evening update.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Orioles have five of top seven spots on HR Predictor tonight
Bronson Arroyo has allowed four HRs already, looking to make up for his two lost years, last pitching in 2014. He has allowed as many as 46 HRs in a season, so it’s no surprise the RotoGrinders HR Predictor, which has been on target this month, favors a couple of Baltimore bats (Mark Trumbo – 8.72% & Chris Davis – 8.67%) more than any others tonight. The Orioles do have the second highest implied run line tonight (5.06). Manny Machado (7.19%) joins them as the fifth most likely to go deep tonight, followed by teammates Adam Jones (6.73%) and Seth Smith (6.73%). Nelson Cruz (7.83%) and Trevor Story (7.47%) are the only non-Orioles in the top seven.
As reported by: RotoGrinders HR Predictor Other tagged players: Chris Davis, Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Seth Smith, Nelson Cruz, Trevor Story, Bronson Arroyo