DFS Alerts
Joey Votto hits left-handed pitching extremely well (156 wRC+, .193 ISO since 2015).
Joey Votto has always hit LHP fairly well and his 156 wRC+ (.193 ISO) is tops in the lineup against LHP since 2015 (5th best on the slate vs the handed type pitcher being faced tonight). Combine that with a 161 wRC+ (.225 ISO) at home over that span and he could make for an interesting lefty on lefty contrarian play, though LHBs do have just a .293 wOBA against Wade Miley over that same time span. RHBs have had much more success against Miley (.342 wOBA). Zack Cozart (111 wRC+, .239 ISO vs LHP) sneaks just inside the 10 hottest hitters over the last week (220 wRC+, 35.7 Hard%) among projected starters and moves up a spot in the lineup to 6th tonight. Eugenio Suarez (135 wRC+, .241 ISO vs LHP) ranks among the players most likely to homer tonight (5.85%) according to the RotoGriners HR Predictor, while cleanup hitter Adam Duvall (102 wRC+, .238 ISO vs LHP) projects as one the top overall players (10.83 FD points via RotoGriners Player Projections. With an implied run line of 4.4 runs (4th highest on the slate), the middle of the Cincinnati order presents as a viable stack. However, Kevin has identified this game as the most troubling weather spot tonight (ORANGE/YELLOW), which is a shame with temperatures around 80 at first pitch and a decent breeze blowing potentially assisting RH power a bit in an already power friendly park.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Zack Cozart, Eugenio Suarez, Wade Miley, Adam Duvall
Tigers bats look to feast on Rays Erasmo Ramirez who is making a spot start today
Rays SP Erasmo Ramirez will be making a spot start today after throwing five times out of the bullpen this season (never topping 46 pitches). He’ll likely only pitch five innings tops putting the Tigers offense in a prime spot to get some early damage. Daniel Norris of the Tigers is an intriguing SP option and probably ranks third behind Chris Sale and Lance McCullers of the eight taking the mound this afternoon. He’s an above average strikeout pitcher facing a Tampa lineup prone to strike out. For the Tigers, Nick Castellanos and Miguel Cabrera are elite options with Ian Kinsler, Tyler Collins, and Alex Avila secondary options. Veteran Victor Martinez is getting the day off. Evan Longoria brings a .200 ISO against LHP and is in play against Norris today. Steven Souza and Rickie Weeks are also viable at the top of the Tampa order.
As reported by: Detroit Tigers official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Evan Longoria, Nick Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez
Lance McCullers clear number two SP option as Astros host Angels
The streaky Matt Shoemaker of the Angles hasn’t looked good so far this season but does have K upside facing an Astros team that does strikeout quite a bit. Still he’s a high risk option and probably best avoided in your lineups today facing the potent Astros lineup. The other pitcher in the game, Lance McCullers of the Astros, is the clear top option behind Boston’s Chris Sale this afternoon. He has a 30+% K rate over his last 17 starts and also has an elite ground ball rate while not giving up much hard contact. Mike Trout is the only viable option from the Angels but it’s hard to justify paying his price tag. The Astros lineup, however, is a top stacking option with the top seven of their lineup (Springer, Beltran, Altuve, Correa, McCann, Bregman, and Gattis all in play) with Altuve and Correa (who is returning from a three game absence) the top options of that group.
As reported by: Houston Astros official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Mike Trout Twins host Indians today with Ervin Santana a viable SP option for Minnesota
Trevor Bauer is the starting pitcher for the Indians and starts today with an extra day of rest as yesterdays game was rained out. He has a league-average K rate and average at best command. Factor in that he is pitching on the road and he’s nothing more than a deep GPP option if running out multiple lineups. Ervin Santana gets the start for the Twins and he is on a hot streak that makes him a viable SP option on the small four game afternoon slate. He has only allowed one earned run thus far this season while striking out 15. There’s some risk facing a dangerous Indians lineup but he’s in play. The top five of the Indians lineup (Santana, Lindor, Brantley, Encarnacion, and Ramirez) are all secondary options and could make for a nice contrarian stack. Brian Dozier and Max Kepler are top options for the Twins lineup and don’t hesitate to utilize the likes of Miguel Sano, Joe Mauer, and Robbie Grossman as part of a stack or stand alone options at their position.
As reported by: Minnesota Twins official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Brian Dozier, Max Kepler, Edwin Encarnacion Chris Sale top SP option of afternoon as Boston visits Toronto
Fade Chris Sale on the small four game afternoon slate at your own risk as he is the clear top option of the eight SP’s taking the mound. He’s struck out 29 batters in his first three starts and even maintains an elite K rate against RH batters (25%+) over the past two seasons. Only Kendrys Morales and perhaps Jose Bautista are worth a look from the Toronto line up as a result of the tough match up. Marco Estrada is the SP for the Blue Jays – he is a fly ball pitcher who gets in trouble at times but has an above average K rate. He’s a viable SP2 option but is generally a fade today. Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi are top options from the Red Sox lineup with Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, and Mitch Moreland all viable stack/secondary options.
As reported by: Toronto Blue Jays official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Kendrys Morales, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi Inexpensive top of Toronto lineup could help those looking to pay up for pitching
Trey Mancini is going to be a popular play tonight and he is inexpensive on DraftKings ($3.4K), but we’re looking even cheaper tonight if the plan is to pay up for pitching. Dipping further down the lineups, Chris Young ($2.8K DK, $2.6K FD)is batting seventh against Francisco Liriano, but has been a lefty masher (158 wRC+, .244 ISO) the last couple of years. Justin Smoak ($2.8K DK, $2.3K FD) has three career HRs against Rick Porcello. Back to the top of the lineup, Aaron Hill ($2.2K DK, $2.5K FD) might be an average bat (103 wRC+ since 2016) against LHP. Kevin Pillar ($3K DK, $2.4K FD) isn’t much, but he is batting leadoff for a lineup projected to score four runs tonight. Ezequiel Carrera ($2.6K DK, $2.4K FD) is much the same right behind him. A Toronto stack, some of whom have strong numbers against Porcello, could get you to Kershaw alone. Alllen Cordoba ($2.5K DK, $2K) is an unknown in the two spot for the Padres tonight against a struggling Zack Greinke.
Other tagged players: Ezequiel Carrera, Justin Smoak, Trey Mancini, Chris Young, Aaron Hill, Allen Cordoba Lots of rain situations to monitor in latest MLB weather forecast
We’ve already had the worst weather game in Minnesota postponed, so luckily, there is no need to continue to worry about players from the Cleveland Indians and Minnesota Twins anymore. However, we are from out of the woods with several other cities around the Majors likely to be affected by rain in at least some capacity. No game is classified at a risk high than YELLOW, but still be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
Inexpensive leadoff options could be popular with Kershaw, Bumgarner on the mound
With Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner on the mound, players are going to be looking for inexpensive bats. Luckily, several of those exist at the top of lineups tonight, and they are likely to be among the most popular hitters tonight. Trey Mancini and Aaron Hill are projected to be in around one quarter of all lineups tonight with Billy Hamilton another leadoff hitter projected to be as popular. Paying up for someone like Freddie Freeman might actually be contrarian (expected to be owned 10% or less on either site tonight). In that case, a pivot off the top arms like Kershaw and Bumgarner to Dallas Keuchel could also play off. Keuchel doesn’t miss as many bats and the Angels have a reputation for making contact, but they’ve actually struck out in 21.9% of PAs this year (21.3% vs LHP) and Keuchel has a 10.4 SwStr%, while absolutely dominating at the point of contact (73.1 GB%, -18.1 Hard-Soft%) so far this season. His projected ownership (which Premium subscribers can find our Projected Ownership page) is just 5% on FanDuel.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Trey Mancini, Freddie Freeman, Billy Hamilton, Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, Dallas Keuchel Speed Kills: Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza should help the Reds end Ubaldo Jimenez's night early
One of the top places to look for offense on Wednesday’s slate looks to be in Cincinnati, where Ubaldo Jimenez is set to take the mound against a continually underrated Cincinnati Reds lineup. Jimenez is coming off two straight poor outings where he failed to make it past the fifth inning in each and allowed five earned runs to the both the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox respectively. The one thing Jimenez has been able to do thus far this season is limit walks (well, to his standards anyway), as seen by his 7.0% walk rate thus far in 2017 that seems phenomenal when compared to his 11.3% walk rate in 2016 and 10.6% career mark. His strikeouts are also down to just 14.0% this season, albeit it a limited sample, but Jimenez is still long removed from being an above-average strikeout arm at the Major League level. The aforementioned stats set up well for speedy, low-ISO hitters like Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza to consistently get on base where they should be able to wreak havoc. In 2016, Jimenez ranked second-worst among starting pitchers with a 10.35% SRAA (Swipe Rate Above Average), which judges the likeliness of a stolen base attempt being successful against a particular pitcher, and ranked fifth-worst among starting pitchers with a 3.79% TRAA (Takeoff Rate Above Average), which measures how often a stolen base attempt occurred against a particular pitcher. Piling on top of that, Billy Hamilton led the Majors with a 9.25% SRAA as a lead runner in 2016, while his teammate, Jose Peraza, currently ranks fourth-best with a 7.30% SRAA as a lead runner this season. So even though Welington Castillo is one of the best catchers in the Majors at throwing runners out (-9.19% SRAA in 2016), the ineptitude of Jimenez at holding runners is likely too much to overcome to slow down established speedsters like Hamilton and Peraza from running wild on the base paths this evening.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Trendspotting Article Other tagged players: Jose Peraza RH power could benefit from strong winds in Kansas City if they can escape rain threat
With cooler temperatures and the threat of rain in several spots (including one game already PPD), players have their work cut out in finding positive hitting conditions tonight. While domes in Toronto, Houston and Tampa Bay may seem like the safest bets tonight, temperatures are projected to be in the 70s in Cincinnati without the threat of rain or strong winds in any direction. Among the games Kevin has identified as rain threats this morning, Kansas City is otherwise looking at temperatures near 80 with winds blowing out to left at 15-25 mph, strong hitting conditions for RH power, if the game plays, though the Royals may not generate much of it against Madison Bumgarner. Buster Posey and Hunter Pence could benefit though. Be sure to watch for Kevin’s evening update.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Madison Bumgarner, Hunter Pence Hanley Ramirez only non-rookie projected for more than 6% chance to homer tonight
Trey Mancini tops the RotoGrinders HR Predictor tonight with his red hot streak and small sample size leading to a nearly 10% projection (9.49). Nobody else on the slate is projected for much better than a 6% chance. Hunter Renfroe (6.16%) comes in next at home in San Diego against Zack Greinke, whom he’s never faced before. Hanley Ramirez (6.08%) is the only other player on the board predicted for more than a 6% chance. He faces the unprojectable Francisco Liriano, who did allow 21 HRs to RHBs alone last year.
As reported by: RotoGrinders HR Predictor Other tagged players: Francisco Liriano, Trey Mancini, Hunter Renfroe, Zack Greinke Bryce Harper has five HRs, 93.2 mph aEV (12 BBE) vs Julio Teheran
Julio Teheran’s difficulties with LHBs have been documented (.355 wOBA, 31 HRs since 2015), but one in particular that gives him fits is Bryce Harper, who has homered five times (36 PAs) against him and has a 93.2 mph aEV on 12 Statcast recorded BBE. While Harper takes today’s BvP top prize, Jose Bautista has also homered four times off Rick Porcello (46 PAs), but with a much lower 89.1 mph aEV on 12 recorded BBE. Porcello has also struggled against Justin Smoak (3 HRs, 27 PAs), who has a 95.8 mph aEV on six BBE. Porcello also has allowed the highest aEV to any batter with more than 10+ recorded BBE in a BvP to Troy Tulowitzki, who has not homered or even had an extra-base hit in 20 PAs, but does have a 93.3 mph aEV on 11 recorded BBE.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Julio Teheran, Rick Porcello, Jose Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Smoak Chris Archer may be an under-owned arm with high strikeout potential
The RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor names the usual suspects atop tonight’s strikeout projections with Clayton Kershaw (8.39) leading the way, followed by Madison Bumgarner (7.05) and Chris Archer (6.87). Many players will be paying up for pitching tonight, but Archer is someone who is off to a strong start and may go under-owned facing a tough Detroit team. The Tigers have a 105 wRC+ vs RHP thus far, but have struck out in 24.1% of plate appearances and are without Justin Upton tonight, thinning out the lineup a bit. Another spot with higher risk, but also high strikeout potential is the Philadelphia at New York NL contest. Vince Velasquez and Robert Gsellman both have ERAs around nine, but estimators nearly six full runs lower. Velasquez has struck out 38.6% of batters so far (NYM 24.5 K% vs RHP) and Gsellman has fanned 26% (PHI 23.7 K% vs RHP). Basically, anyone who doesn’t strike out has been scoring against them. Each has a strand rate below 70%.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, Robert Gsellman, Vince Velasquez Tonight's CLE-MIN game has officially been postponed
The Indians-Twins game has been officially postponed Wednesday due to inclement weather. The teams will make up the game on June 17th as a part of a double header. It is imperative to remove all players from this game from daily fantasy lineups, as they obviously will not accrue fantasy points due to the game being rescheduled.
As reported by: Dave St. Peter Trey Mancini (508 wRC+, 4 HRs last seven days) leading off in Cincinnati
Not only is the red hot Trey Mancini (508 wRC+, 4 HRs) back in the lineup, but he’s leading off for the Orioles in Cincinnati tonight. Surprisingly, the Orioles have found a way to jam Chris Davis (106 wRC+, .191 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Mark Trumbo (94 wRC+, .217 ISO vs LHP since 2015) into an NL park lineup as well. There are several implications here. If players are actually risk embracing enough to choose Ubaldo Jimenez tonight, the defense may be just as challenging as the walks tonight. And while Mancini is at a low enough price with the potential expectation of perhaps an extra PA in the leadoff spot, Cincinnati has been aggressive in the usage of multi-inning weapons Lorenzen and Iglesias, using them as early as the third inning this season. In a close game, rookie Amir Garrett may not get a chance to work through any troubles, forcing the Baltimore lineup to face tougher RHP potentially earlier than you might expect.
Other tagged players: Ubaldo Jimenez, Amir Garrett, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo