DFS Alerts
Manny Machado is a top projected bat, but Mike Moustakas could be a value pivot
Tonight’s top projected hitters reads like the top of the prospect board five years ago with Harper, Machado and Trout the only three batters projected for 12 points or more on FanDuel, though Murphy and Springer join them at nine points on DraftKings. Those looking to be more thrifty (perhaps to pay up for pitching) might opt to pivot from Machado on DK to Moustakas (2.49 Pt/$/K), who has a 134 wRC+ and .302 ISO vs RHP since last year and has a matchup at home against Matt Cain. The top value on FD is projected to be Seth Smith (121 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP since last year) facing Bronson Arroyo, who has already allowed four HRs this season. Max Scherzer is easily the top projected pitcher overall tonight, while Luis Severino (4.33 Pt/$/K on FanDuel) might give players the best return on their fantasy dollars.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Mike Trout, Daniel Murphy, George Springer, Matt Cain, Seth Smith, Bronson Arroyo, Max Scherzer, Luis Severino
Brian McCann has homered eight times against Ricky Nolasco
In 60 career PAs, Brian McCann has taken Ricky Nolasco deep, by far the highest BvP total on the board today, but we must consider that many of those battles occurred when both playing for NL East teams. Both are regarded as different players now, though McCann still has some pop in his bat. In fact, only five BBE have been recorded by Statcast between the two (91.9 mph aEV). J.J. Hardy has the second most HRs (3) against the pitcher he is facing tonight, but again, his battles against Bronson Arroyo are so far in the past, Statcast was only a glimmer in MLB’s eye at the time, without a record of a single one of those batted balls. Among those with at least 10 recorded BBE against a particular pitcher, Xander Bogaerts has the highest aEV (96.6 mph, 11 BBE) against Marcus Stroman. He’s even been moved to the leadoff spot tonight and has three extra-base hits in 17 PAs against Stroman, normally an elite ground ball generator, in his career. David Freese (94.6 mph aEV) and Gregory Polanco (94 mph aEV) are next highest on that list against Mike Leake, while Andrew McCutchen has two HRs against him, but just an 85.9 mph aEV on 17 BBE.
As reported by: Statcast Matchups Other tagged players: Xander Bogaerts, J.J. Hardy, David Freese, Placido Polanco, Andrew McCutchen, Mike Leake, Marcus Stroman, Bronson Arroyo, Ricky Nolasco Michael Conforto (129 wRC+, .245 ISO career vs RHP) bats leadoff for Mets tonight
Curtis Granderson is on the bench as the Mets have inserted the hot hitting Michael Conforto (129 wRC+, .245 ISO vs career vs RHP) into the leadoff spot against Zach Eflin tonight. Conforto has a 166 wRC+, 44.4 Hard% over the last week and costs just $3.5K on DK, $2.7K on FanDuel. LHBs have a 38.8 wOBA with a 35.1 Hard% against Eflin in his career, who has a ground ball rate well below 40%. This could be a rough spot for him overall against a lineup full of powerful LHBs, including Bruce (114 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP since 2015), Cabrera (112 wRC+, .189 ISO), Walker (110 wRC+, .168 ISO) and Duda (121 wRC+, .223 ISO) behind Conforto.
Other tagged players: Zach Eflin, Jay Bruce, Asdrubal Cabrera, Neil Walker, Lucas Duda Scherzer and Darvish exceed a 30 K%, but Fulmer has tonight's top strikeout matchup
Max Scherzer (8.84) is the top name in the RotoGrinders K Predictor today. That’s not a surprise with a 31.3 K% over the past two calendar years, no matter who he faces (Braves 20.2 K% vs RHP this year). More than two strikeouts behind, Yu Darvish (6.38) is in a virtual tie with Michael Fulmer (6.39). Darvish has a 30.6 K% since returning from injury last year and faces an Oakland lineup that’s been striking out more often this year (23.7% vs RHP). From a pure K% standpoint, he could equal Scherzer, but isn’t projected to pitch as deep into the game. Scherzer averages nearly a full inning more per game. Fulmer (20.6 K% career) has the top strikeout matchup against the Rays (28.1 K% vs RHP). Although he projects poorly on this board, Luis Severino (3.95) might be another name to consider for strikeout potential. He’s at 22.6% for his career, but is coming off a career high 11 Ks last time out and faces the White Sox (24.2 K% vs RHP).
As reported by: RotoGrinders K Predictor Other tagged players: Max Scherzer, Yu Darvish, Luis Severino Starling Marte tests positive for PED's; suspended for 80 games
Sources have stated that the Pirates star OF has tested positive for Nandrolone, a performance enhancing drug, and will be suspended by the league for 80 games. It looks as if this suspension will start immediately so make sure he is out of your lineups for tonight.
As reported by: Jon Heyman on Twitter
A pair of first basemen and a pair of catchers are among the week's hottest hitters
A list of the hottest hitters over the previous week is topped by several first basemen followed by a couple of catchers. The hottest hitter over the last week (Trey Mancini) is, unfortunately, riding the pine tonight, but there are still a couple 1B bats expected to play tonight with red hot bats. Eric Thames (370 wRC+, 47.6 Hard%) homered again last night, but is facing a pitcher who grounds LHBs 69.5% since 2015. Freddie Freeman (333 wRC+, 69.2 Hard%) faces Max Scherzer (.302 wOBA vs RHP since 2015), but this is a pitcher known to allow a HR or two. Austin Romine (317 wRC+) and Travis D’arnaud (310 wRC+) both hit at the bottom of the order, but both are affordable catchers facing contact prone fly ball pitchers. Taylor Motter (311 wRC+, 56.3 Hard%) is the other bat projected to be in the lineup with a wRC+ above 300 over the last week. He faces Wei-Yin Chen (345 wOBA vs RHBs since 2015).
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Max Scherzer, Austin Romine, Travis d'Arnaud, Taylor Motter, Wei-Yin Chen Nelson Cruz and Taylor Motter both have a wRC+ above 180 against LHP
A pair of Mariners top the board when considering batters with the highest wRC+ against the handedness of opposing pitcher tonight since 2015 (min. 30 PAs). Considering the Mariners are facing the left-handed Wei-Yin Chen (.345 wOBA, 32.8 Hard% vs RHBs over the same period), Nelson Cruz (186 wRC+, .335 ISO) is the expected name at the top and likely to be a very popular bat tonight. The next batter barely qualifies (32 career PAs vs LHP), but the red hot (311 wRC+, .56.3 Hard%) Taylor Motter has smoked LHP (183 wRC+, .192 ISO, 45 Hard%) and could be an under-the radar, affordable SS option tonight, even if we need to be strongly skeptical of the early returns. Mike Trout (171 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP) is in the top five no matter who he’s facing and tonight it’s the struggling Joe Musgrove (.325 wOBA vs RHBs), who recently admitted to dealing with mechanical issues. Joey Votto (166 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP) has struggled to start the season and will now be facing Kevin Gausman, a pitcher with reverse splits, instead of Ubaldo Jimenez. Bryce Harper (164 wRC+, .277 ISO vs RHP) closes out the top five. Mike Foltynewicz has struggled greatly against LHBs (.361 wOBA).
Other tagged players: Taylor Motter, Wei-Yin Chen, Mike Trout, Joe Musgrove, Joey Votto, Kevin Gausman, Bryce Harper, Mike Foltynewicz Kevin Gausman starting for Orioles today
It was originally thought that Ubaldo Jimenez might toe the mound today for the Orioles but according to the game preview at mlb.com, it will be Kevin Gausman who gets the starting nod. Gausman is a viable SP2 candidate against a mediocre Reds lineup.
As reported by: Orioles game preview on mlb.com Other tagged players: Ubaldo Jimenez Risk in TEX-OAK game upgraded to YELLOW in updated MLB weather forecast
The PPD risk in the Rangers-Athletics game has all but been absolved in Kevin Roth’s final weather forecast update of the evening. He still has the game classified as YELLOW, which does leave the possibility of a rain delay, but Roth is confident that the game will play in full as long as field conditions permit. This opens up hitters and even pitchers as viable options once again. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
Adam Frazier, Greg Garcia lead bargain middle infield options tonight
Tonight’s bargain team is led by middle infield options, all multi-position eligible on DraftKings. Adam Frazier (119 wRC+, .155 ISO vs RHP career) faces Lance Lynn (.352 wOBA vs RHBs since 2015) from the leadoff spot. He’s 2B/OF eligible on DraftKings, where he’s $3K, but just $2.1K on FanDuel, where he’s a SS. Greg Garcia (118 wRC+, .112 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a similarly priced 3B/SS on DK, 2B on FD. He bats 6th against Ivan Nova (.372 wOBA vs LHBs since 2015). Another name to keep an eye on is Kike Hernandez (138 wRC+, .226 ISO vs LHP since 2015) if he bats leadoff tonight against the hard contact prone Robbie Ray (.332 wOBA vs RHBs since 2015). He’s an Outfielder on FanDuel, but SS eligible as well and actually cheaper ($2.7K) on DraftKings. Another bargain OF bat tonight is Matt Joyce (131 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP since last season) at $2.6K or below on either site against A.J. Griffin (.411 wOBA vs LBs since last year). Jed Lowrie ($2.9K DK, $2.3K FD) isn’t much against RHP (79 wRC+, .106 ISO since 2015), but gets to face A.J. Griffin batting 3rd as well.
Other tagged players: Greg Garcia, Lance Lynn, A.J. Griffin, Ivan Nova, Matt Joyce, Enrique Hernandez, Robbie Ray, Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie PPD risk in TEX-OAK game headlines Roth's updated MLB weather forecast
Outside of some small weather concerns in Atlanta involving some pop-up isolated storms, the only real weather risk is in the Rangers-Athletics game, as the rain looks to be arriving sooner than originally forecasted. The game in Oakland officially comes in as ORANGE in Kevin Roth’s latest weather update, meaning that a rain delay is likely and a PPD can not be entirely ruled out. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Frazier & Judge are potential pivots from Lindor and Stanton tonight.
Francisco Lindor (124 wRC+, .156 ISO vs RHP career) is projected to be tonight’s most popular bat (around 25% on either site). Adam Frazier (119 wRC+, .155 ISO vs RHP career) is near the minimum cost and a great pivot for just $100 above the minimum on FanDuel (he’s 2B and OF eligible on DK, where he’s expected to be in fewer than 10% of lineups according to our Projected Lineups page. Both have similar numbers against RHP and Frazier may even have the better matchup with the pitcher he’s facing (Lynn) allowing a higher wOBA (.352) to RHBs since 2015, while Kyle Gibson (facing Cleveland) at least generally keeps the ball on the ground. While Giancarlo Stanton is expected to be tonight’s most owned OF bat, perhaps players might want to look to a player many are comparing to him. Aaron Judge is hitting the ball like a Stanton clone and facing a LHP allowing a lot of hard contact (436.4 Hard%) in the air (33.3 GB%) in Derek Holland. Judge is projected to be in just 5% of lineups on either site. Players are expected to be able to afford and thus roster the top pitching arms tonight (Lackey, Salazar, and Ray) generously.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Giancarlo Stanton, Francisco Lindor, John Lackey, Danny Salazar, Robbie Ray Danny Salazar has thrown his change-up 40.4% of the time this season, up from a 18.8% career mark
Danny Salazar is coming off of a solid start his last time out against the Chicago White Sox in which he allowed two earned runs and struck out 11 batters in six innings of work. He’ll take the mound this evening in what, at first glance, looks to be a great matchup against an exploitable Minnesota Twins lineup. However, if digging a little deeper, we’ll see that Salazar has been throwing his changeup much more frequently to this point in 2017 (40.4%) compared to seasons past, as evidenced by his career 18.8% changeup pitch type selection. Normally, this type of data could be easily dismissed given the minuscule sample size, but the increase has been so drastic that it becomes noteworthy, especially against a Twins lineup that has historically hit Salazar and changeups in general extremely well. As mentioned, the change in Salazar’s approach thus far just further plays into the strengths of several Twins hitters, as four of their top five hitters in the order owned at least a 1.5 wCH (changeup runs above average) last season. Brian Dozier (130 wRC+, .366 wOBA, .262 ISO) headlines the list for Minnesota, while Max Kepler (114 wRC+, .343 wOBA, .218 ISO), Robbie Grossman (109 wRC+, .336 wOBA), and Joe Mauer (107 wRC+, .333 wOBA) all have historically mashed changeups, along with above-average numbers against right-handed pitching the last two seasons. With all that said, Salazar still does possess just as much upside as any other starting pitcher on the slate with his 27.6% strikeout rate from 2016, but a full fade in all formats may not be the worst idea given similarly priced options like Robbie Ray and John Lackey in much better spots and likely coming in at a lower ownership percentage in large-field tournaments.
Other tagged players: Brian Dozier, Max Kepler, Robbie Grossman, Joe Mauer Danny Salazar (8.81) and John Lackey (8.76) atop tonight's K Predictor
There are no surprises for the RotoGrinders K Predictor tonight. Danny Salazar is projected for the most strikeouts (8.81) as only 29 of the 49 batters he’s faced have failed to strike out this year. John Lackey (8.76) is a close second against the strikeout prone Brewers (26.7 K% vs RHP). Robbie Ray (6.91) trails them by a couple. No other pitcher is predicted for more than five strikeouts. Jharel Cotton is next at 4.47. He has a live arm with a superior changeup and faces a Texas lineup that fans at about an average pace. It might be difficult to cover his $8.2K cost on DraftKings if he doesn’t get at least five Ks though.
As reported by: RotoGrinders K Predictor Other tagged players: John Lackey, Robbie Ray, Jharel Cotton Matt Carpenter scratched on Monday
Carpenter has been scratched from Monday’s lineup to receive treatment on his finger, which he injured fielding a grounder on Sunday. It doesn’t appear to be an ailment that will keep him out of action for long. Jose Martinez will slot into the five-spot in the order.
As reported by: Jenifer Langosch