DFS Alerts
Potential power suppressing conditions (cold, wind blowing in from left) at Wrigley tonight
Atlanta is the only park projected to hold temperatures above 70 degrees throughout the game tonight. The coldest spots look to be Minnesota and Wrigley tonight. The wind is projected to be blowing in at around 10 mph from left as well, giving pitchers an added bonus in suppressing power tonight in Chicago, along with temperatures expecting to dip below 50 degrees. Players may want to think twice about rostering hitters from that game and give pitchers a slight bump. Kevin’s early forecast called for light showers in Oakland tonight, where it’s supposed to be around 60 degrees with a slight wind blowing out. Yankee Stadium has a forecast for temperatures in the 60s, but the strongest wind gusts of the evening (14 mph) blowing left to right, but a small change in direction could assist LH power even further. Be sure to keep an eye out for Kevin’s evening update a little later.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page
Carlos Correa is OUT against Jesse Chavez, Reddick bats 2nd
With Carlos Correa OUT of the lineup against Jesse Chavez tonight, Josh Reddick (132 wRC+, .174 ISO vs RHP since 2015) moves up to the 2nd spot and Carlos Beltran (117 wRC+, .196 ISO) hits cleanup. LHBs have a .351 wOBA against Chavez since 2015 as well. Reddick hasn’t really gotten on track yet this season, but costs just $2.6K on FanDuel and has hit the ball hard in 42.9% of his BBE (Batted Ball Events) over the last week. Chavez has been better against RHBs (.291 wOBA), but Jose Altuve (132 wRC+, .165 ISO vs RHP since 2015) hits same handed pitching well and has begun heating up (289 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Carlos Beltran, Jose Altuve, Jesse Chavez Jered Weaver has a .133 BABIP and 93.8% LOB% thus far in 2017
Jered Weaver is coming off of an improbable pitching performance against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field in his last start, allowing just two earned runs and striking out five in six innings of work. While that performance was impressive for the washed up Weaver, there is no reason to shy away from attacking this soft-tossing right-hander each and every time he takes the mound. Weaver has actually been overachieving, if you want to call it that, in the strikeout department thus far, posting a 15.6% strikeout rate compared to 13.5% and 13.4% the past two full seasons. Where Weaver really struggles is in the home run department (1.87 HR/9 in 2016), which is due in part to his massive 48.2% flyball rate. The Braves lack a little pop in the lineup without Matt Kemp available, but Freddie Freeman (160 wRC+, .413 wOBA, .294 ISO vs RHP) still remains one of, if not, the top hitting option on the slate given his dominance against right-handed pitching last season and to this point in 2017. The rest of the Braves bats like Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson, Nick Markakis (114 wRC+, .345 wOBA vs RHP in 2016/17), and Brandon Phillips (135 wRC+, .372 wOBA) are better utilized as part of an Atlanta stack in tournaments rather than one-offs given their dearth of individual power upside, though anyone can realistically any one of them can get a hold of one against Weaver.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Nick Markakis, Brandon Phillips, Jered Weaver
RotoGrinders HR Predictor favors Giancarlo Stanton tonight (8.85%)
The RotoGrinders HR Predictor has been on target early this season and it has a bullseye on Giancarlo Stanton tonight. His 8.85% leads all players in a matchup against Ariel Miranda, who has already allowed three HRs to RHBs this season, after allowing 11 of his 12 to them last year as well. Stanton has a 178 wRC+ and .406 ISO vs LHP since 2015. Khris Davis (7.32%) is second most likely to homer. Although A.J. Griffin has been more competent against RHBs (.300 wOBA, 34.2 Hard% since last year), Davis has a .282 ISO vs RHP since 2015 and is facing a pitcher who allows a lot of hard contact in the air. Eric Thames (6.8%), Chris Carter (6.4%) and Marcell Ozuna (6.33%) are the other three players to exceed 6%. None of those names should come as a surprise.
As reported by: RotoGrinders HR Predictor Other tagged players: Ariel Miranda, Marcell Ozuna, Khris Davis, A.J. Griffin, Eric Thames, Chris Carter Freddie Freeman and a pair of Cubs (Rizzo & Bryant) top RotoGrinders projections tonight
Freddie Freeman is followed by a pair of Cubs (Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant) atop the RotoGrinders projections tonight. While all are great bats, off to strong starts (via wRC+), Freeman clearly has the better matchup against Jered Weaver. Chase Anderson hasn’t been bad in his first two starts. Matt Joyce (131 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP since 2016) is the only batter projected for more than 2.5 points per $1K of salary on DraftKings and should hit at the top of the lineup against A.J. Griffin (.411 wOBA, 44.5 Hard%, 27.6 GB% vs LHBs since 2015). Joyce is joined on FanDuel by potential top values in J.T. Realmuto (79 wRC+, .167 ISO vs LHP since 2016) against Ariel Miranda (.303 wOBA, 36.5 Hard% vs RHBs career) and Adam Frazier (119 wRC+, .155 ISO vs RHP), who is almost the minimum against Lance Lynn (.352 wOBA vs RHBs since 2015). Top pitchers are projected to be the top priced ones with Salazar and Lackey followed closely by Ray, though Charlie Morton and his increased velocity is projected for the most value on either site. He can be had for right around $6.5K in both places. Players can see projected point totals for all players on the RotoGrinders Projections page.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Kobe Bryant, Jered Weaver, Chase Anderson, Matt Joyce, A.J. Griffin, J.T. Realmuto, Ariel Miranda, John Lackey, Danny Salazar, Robbie Ray, Charlie Morton Kike Hernandez has a 95.5 mph aEV (10 BBE) against Robbie Ray
Carlos Santana is the only batter with more than two HRs against the pitcher he is facing tonight. He has three against Kyle Gibson in just 25 PAs. However, those are his only three extra-base hits with just an 82.1 mph aEV on 11 BBEs in total. It’s difficult to call this a predictive match-up entirely in his favor going forward. Two other batters have at least 10 Statcast recorded BBEs against the pitcher they are facing tonight. One is Joe Mauer (91.7 mph aEV) vs Danny Salazar with five extra-base hits total. The second name might be more interesting. Robbie Ray allows a lot of hard contact in the air to RHBs. Kike Hernandez should be in the lineup tonight with a recent rash of injuries to Dodger RHBs. In 15 PAs against Ray, he has three extra-base hits with a 95.5 mph aEV and just three strikeouts. He’s an even more interesting name if he leads off with Logan Forsythe exiting with a hamstring issue this weekend.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Robbie Ray, Joe Mauer, Kyle Gibson, Carlos Santana, Danny Salazar Eric Thames tops week's hottest hitters (330 wRC+, 47.1 Hard%)
Eric Thames is tearing the cover off the ball upon his return to the majors. He’s coming off a seven day period with a 330 wRC+ and 47.1 Hard%. While facing one of tonight’s top pitchers, John Lackey has allowed average production to RHBs since 2015 (.315 wOBA, 31.3 Hard%). Lonnie Chisenhall (302 wRC+) is the only other batter above a 300 wRC+ over the last week (min. 10 PAs). Aaron Hicks (298 wRC+) may not even be in the lineup against a LHP (37 wRC+ since 2016). Jose Altuve (289 wRC+) is finally heating up after a slow start. Among the five hottest bats, Jose Ramirez (288 wRC+, 35 Hard%) is the only one besides Thames with a hard hit rate above 27% though. Adding a sixth bat gets us to Ender Inciarte (282 wRC+, 36.8 Hard%), who has a top matchup against Jered Weaver tonight.
Other tagged players: Ender Inciarte, Jered Weaver, John Lackey, Aaron Hicks, Jose Altuve, Jose Ramirez Giancarlo Stanton has a 178 wRC+, .406 ISO vs LHP since 2015
Small sample size king Eric Thames leads all batters (min. 30 PA) with a 232 wRC+ (.455 ISO, 54.2 Hard%) since 2015 against the handed type pitcher he is facing tonight and is facing one of tonight’s most expensive pitchers (John Lackey). However, Giancarlo Stanton (178 wRC+, .406 ISO) nearly matches him for power against LHP in a much larger sample. He’s facing Ariel Miranda (35.6 Hard% vs RHBs career). Mike Trout (170 wRC+, .268 ISO) makes the top five no matter who he’s facing (Charlie Morton), but Martin Prado (161 wRC+, .142 ISO) follows his teammate (though with much less power). Freddie Freeman (156 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP) rounds out the top five and is sure to be extremely popular against Jered Weaver (.348 wOBA vs RHBs since 2015).
Other tagged players: Martin Prado, Ariel Miranda, Eric Thames, John Lackey, Mike Trout, Charlie Morton, Freddie Freeman, Jered Weaver Buying into Charlie Morton, but not Derek Holland
Derek Holland has a 1.09 ERA through two starts, while Charlie Morton is at 4.09. By conventional standards, casual fans would be looking at Holland as the potentially improved pitcher, but underlying metrics might tell us something much different. Charlie Morton came out throwing harder in his first start and then picked up another mph in his second start, sitting at nearly 96 mph. As a consequence, he’s missing more bats than he traditionally has (10.6 SwStr%) at the sacrifice of his generally elite GB rate (55.3% career vs 44.1% this year), making him more DFS relevant, especially for just $6.5K. Holland, on the other hand, is not missing more bats (7.2 SwStr%) and has allowed a lot of hard contact (36.4 Hard%) in the air (33.3 GB%) and especially in the strike zone (96.2 Z-Contact%). He doesn’t appear to be fooling anybody, but it seems batters are just missing their launch angle on him, resulting in a .147 BABIP thus far. Perhaps Aaron Judge (.211 wRC+, 72.7 Hard% over the last week) would be a good OF starting point tonight with consideration towards Chris Carter (.119 wRC+, .300 ISO vs LHP since 2016), Starlin Castro (91 wRC+, .159 ISO) and Matt Holliday (113 wRC+, .261 ISO) if he’s back in the lineup as well. RHBs have a .344 wOBA and 35.9 Hard% vs Holland since 2015.
Other tagged players: Derek Holland, Aaron Judge, Chris Carter, Matt Holliday, Starlin Castro Todd Frazier's absence gives Jordan Montgomery a boost
Jordan Montgomery pitched very well in his major league debut, but was held to just 89 pitches in 4.2 innings, while striking out seven of 21 Rays. He was rated the 14th best prospect (Fangraphs) in a deep system for the Yankees with middle to back end of the rotation potential. He doesn’t really have a standout pitch, but doesn’t seem to have many incredibly poor traits either. At $6K, he may be a popular SP2 choice on FanDuel against a below average offense when the White Sox come visiting. The White Sox did hit LHP well last season, but Todd Frazier is NOT in the lineup tonight. Montgomery did allow hard contact on six of 11 batted balls in his first start with one more fly ball than grounder. Inexpensive RHBs are not entirely off the table here. The White Sox lead off with two, both with barely an ISO above .120 career vs LHP, but Anderson and Saladino do have some speed. The next three (Cabrera, Abreu, and Avisail Garcia are all above average hitters with an ISO above .150 vs LHP since last year. Abreu (.222) was the only one to exceed .200 though.
As reported by: fangraphs Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Avisail Garcia, Tyler Saladino, Tim Anderson HOU-OAK game postponed today
Sunday afternoon’s game between the Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics has officially been postponed due to inclement weather. There has yet to be a makeup date announced for the aforementioned contest, so it is paramount to get these players out of lineups prior to the game’s lock time.
As reported by: Official Twitter Account of the Oakland Athletics Padres bats provide plenty of power to capitalize on the road versus Bartolo Colon
Bartolo Colon is coming off a poor outing against the Miami Marlins where he went just four innings and allowed six earned runs while punching out just two batters. He’ll take the mound this afternoon against an underrated San Diego Padres lineup that has several power hitters from each side of the plate to take advantage of a fastball pitcher like Colon that struggles striking out hitters (16.2% K% in 2016). This Padres lineup is littered with power up and down their order that should be able to capitalize on Colon’s high 35.4% hard hit rate allowed from last season. Hunter Renfroe (136 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .305 ISO vs RHP), Ryan Schimpf (132 wRC+, .366 wOBA, .297 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), Yangervis Solarte (123 wRC+, .353 wOBA, .188 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), Wil Myers (123 wRC+, .353 wOBA, .221 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), and Manuel Margot (.233 ISO vs RHP) have all exhibited power against right-handed pitching in their short Major League careers and are in prime position to put up solid fantasy production as one-offs or as a full stack in tournaments, which could end up being relatively contrarian.
Other tagged players: Hunter Renfroe, Yangervis Solarte, Wil Myers, Manuel Margot, Bartolo Colon Several changes in Roth's latest MLB weather update, including risk in DET-CLE upgraded to YELLOW/GREEN
We’re not totally out of the woods yet in terms of weather concerns around the Major Leagues, but several areas are looking much more optimistic than they were just a few short hours ago. Primarily, it seems that Kevin Roth is now hopeful that the game in Cleveland between the Tigers and Indians will be completed without a delay, though a rain delay can not be entirely ruled out. With that said, whether you’re playing the main slate or late slate, the weather is certainly going to play a factor in your roster decisions. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Drew Pomeranz had a higher K% (28.0%) and lower BB% (9.0%) versus RHB in 2016
Drew Pomeranz is coming off a great opening start to the year against the Baltimore Orioles in which he struck out six and allowed just one earned run in six innings of work. He’s set to take the bump in this afternoon’s matchup against a free-swinging Tampa Bay Rays lineup that currently ranks second-worst in the Majors in strikeout rate after finishing third-worst in 2016 as well. Pomeranz struggles with inconsistency at times but is still a pitcher that posted a superb 26.5% strikeout rate last season, which will clearly give him massive upside in this matchup, just as much as any other pitcher on the main slate. Additionally, the departure of Logan Forsythe and Steve Pearce from this Rays lineup makes this team all that less potent facing off against southpaws. If Pomeranz is able to limit the free passes (9.3% BB% in 2016), he should have no problem moving down this Tampa Bay order, as Evan Longoria (.200 ISO vs LHP in 2016/17) and Rickie Weeks Jr. (159 wRC+, .419 wOBA, .358 ISO vs LHP in 2016) are really the only established lefty mashers to counteract Pomeranz from the right side of the plate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Rickie Weeks, Evan Longoria Several trouble spots to watch out for in Roth's latest MLB weather forecast
There are several games on the docket this afternoon and this evening that are worth monitoring from a weather perspective with multiple YELLOW, YELLOW/ORANGE and ORANGE classifications littered throughout Kevin Roth’s latest update to Sunday’s weather forecast. Whether you’re playing the main slate or late slate, weather is certainly going to play a factor in your roster decisions. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page