DFS Alerts
LHBs had a .406 wOBA and 44.4 Hard% against A.J. Griffin last year.
The Oakland A’s have a middling projection of just 4.5 runs tonight, but could make for an interesting LH stacking proposition under favorable Texas conditions against a A.J. Griffin, who allowed a .406 wOBA and 44.4 Hard% to lefties last year. Jed Lowrie has not hit RHP well (73 wRC+ since 2015), but is off to a hot start this season overall (197 wRC+, 36.4 Hard%). Stephen Vogt (115 wRC+, .187 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is an affordable Catcher who has made 44.7% of his contact in the air against RHP since 2015. Matt Joyce (141 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP last year) is extremely cheap at the top of the order and the other LH bat, Yonder Alonso (101 wRC+, .114 ISO vs RHP since 2015), well, he’s a player in the lineup too. Maybe players should consider sticking to batters higher in the order. Griffin has been much better against RHBs (.304 wOBA, 32.2 Hard%), but Khris Davis (124 wRC+, .274 ISO since 2015) and Ryon Healy (131 wRC+, .213 ISO career) have both been very successful against RHP.
Other tagged players: Stephen Vogt, Jed Lowrie, Yonder Alonso, Khris Davis, Ryon Healy, A.J. Griffin
Chase Headley leads all hitters tonight with a 415 wRC+ (min. 10 PA)
Looking at hitter’s with at least 10 plate appearances who have gotten off to a hot start this year, Chase Headley leads all players with a 415 wRC+ so far this year. He’s affordable on either site as an off the radar bat with a plus matchup against walk machine Ubaldo Jimenez tonight. He’s followed by Nomar Mazara (392 wRC+) also with a plus matchup at home tonight against Raul Alcantara. 63.6% of his contact has been graded as hard. Miguel Sano is third with a 350 wRC+ hitting half of his contacted balls hard. He also has a nice matchup against Derek Holland, although under chilly Chicago conditions. Each of these bats are affordable tonight, ranging between $3.8K to $4.2K on DraftKings and $2.9K to $3.1K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Miguel Sano Reds lineup note: Scooter Gennett batting 7th and playing 3rd, not Eugenio Suarez
The Reds lineup was just confirmed, but they initially had Eugenio Suarez listed as the 7th hitter. Scooter Gennett will instead man that spot and play 3rd base against RH Mike Leake. The Reds have one of the lower team totals of the evening, so they aren’t an overly attractive stack.
As reported by: Jim Day Other tagged players: Eugenio Suarez
Indians, Cubs and Rangers top Vegas run projections tonight
Cleveland tops the Vegas run projections tonight with 5.4 runs expected from the DH barren offense in Arizona. While Carlos Santana (127 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Francisco Lindor (119 wRC+, .144 ISO) should certainly be in play against a pitcher who has allowed a .348 wOBA to LHBs since 2015 and a lofty 9.9% Barrels/BBE overall last season, Shelby Miller has opened some eyes with a spike in velocity and strikeout rate north of 30% this season. The Cubs and Rangers are the other two offenses projected for at least five runs tonight. The Cubs take top bats Kyle Schwarber (157 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Anthony Rizzo (149 wRC+, .264 ISO) up against Jimmy Nelson (.357 wOBA to RHBs since 2015) in Milwaukee, while the Rangers were a favorite of today’s Premium Trendspotting column, which uses pitch type and batted ball matchups to come up with top plays.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Kyle Schwarber, Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Jimmy Nelson, Shelby Miller Chilly conditions could favor pitchers in several parks tonight.
Looking at hitting and pitching conditions around the league, we find that a usually comfortable hitting environment in Baltimore could be blemished with temperatures in the 40’s tonight. A strong wind will be blowing over 20 mph from left to right. The wind may be blowing out to right at Citi Field in New York, but also with temperatures in the 40s. The hitter most likely to see a positive boost from the wind is Justin Bour and potentially Christian Yelich if he can get a ball in the air. The Mets will also start several LHBs against a LHP. Minnesota at Chicago will also see temperatures in the 40s, while Cincinnati at St Louis will be in the 50’s. Lower temperatures favor pitching conditions, hampering the ball’s ability to carry. There doesn’t appear to be any concern for rain in Kevin’s early forecast, but he’ll update us again this evening.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Christian Yelich Nelson Cruz has three HRs, 98.4 mph aEV against Jesse Chavez.
Albert Pujols and Nelson Cruz lead the BvP charge with three HRs each against the pitchers they’re facing tonight. In Pujols’s case, his numbers against Yovani Gallardo should be considered with less weight due to only four batted balls against him over the last two seasons (91.9 mph aEV). The majority of their matchups occured when both were in the NL Central and were each considered much better players. Nelson Cruz is a bit more interesting. He has done his damage in just 15 plate appearances against Jesse Chavez and although that comes with five strikeouts, five recorded BBEs averaged an exit velocity of 98.4 mph. Teammate Kyle Seager also has two HRs against Chavez with a 97 mph aEV in 10 BBEs.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Albert Pujols, Kyle Seager Joey Gallo (8.63%) tops the Rotogrinders HR Predictor tonight
Joey Gallo (8.63%) tops the Rotogrinders HR Predictor tonight and he’s already gone deep as a top three option earlier in the week. In fact, our Premium Trendspotting article loves Texas bats tonight against Raul Alcantara and they are one of three teams projected for better than five runs tonight, so perhaps a stack is in order. Rougned Odor (6.94%) is one of four batters who follow Gallo between 6.9% and 7%. The others are Yoenis Cespedes, Khris Davis, and Gary Sanchez, though players must take into consideration the smaller sample sizes of Gallo and Sanchez.
As reported by: Rotogrinders HR Predictor Other tagged players: Rougned Odor, Yoenis Cespedes, Khris Davis, Gary Sanchez Francisco Liriano tops tonight's projections on either site
George Springer, Jose Altuve and Anthony Rizzo are the clear favorites of the Rotogrinders projections tonight. The Astros are facing soft tossing lefty Jason Vargas at home, while Rizzo has an appointment with Jimmy Nelson, who has allowed a .357 wOBA and 35.5 Hard% to LHBs over the last two seasons. Rizzo (149 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 92 mph aEV on 18 BBEs against Nelson. Francisco Liriano is the clear top choice on the mound, projecting for 34 points on FanDuel and 17 on DraftKings, but it’s then kind of interesting that Rickie Weeks is projected as the top point per dollar play tonight. Liriano has upside, but is a flawed pitcher, prone to control and HR issues and Weeks (133 wRC+, .272 ISO vs LHP since 2015), who costs the minimum or barely more, has been batting cleanup against LHP so far. Jesse Chavez is the top projected value at Pitcher on FanDuel, costing the minimum after having pitched out of the bullpen last year, but he’s still on the bottom half of overall Pitcher projections.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Other tagged players: George Springer, Jose Altuve, Jimmy Nelson, Anthony Rizzo, Rickie Weeks, Jesse Chavez Shelby Miller's velocity has spiked this spring.
Francisco Liriano is your top priced pitching option tonight. He costs $8.9K on DraftKings and just $8K on FanDuel. He’s probably the best pitcher on the board, as he showed marked improvement in his both his strikeout (22.2% to 25%) and walk rates (13.2% to 7.7%) after being reunited with Russell Martin in Toronto last year. The Rays struck out 25.4% of the time against LHP last year. Players should have no problem affording whatever pitcher they want tonight, so expect Liriano, with all of his risks and flaws, to be fairly popular (check our Projected Ownership numbers later). A name that will unlikely be very popular was last year’s disaster Shelby Miller. His numbers were anything but pretty and his mechanics were a wreck, but a funny thing happened his spring. He was recorded at 95 mph in late February and then 97 mph at the end of March, having struck out 37% of the batters he’d faced. Spring training numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt and he was still having issues with the hitters who did make contact, but you can’t fake a velocity spike like that. While facing the Cleveland offense in Arizona is no easy matter, remember that they lose either Santana or Encarnacion tonight without a DH. He costs $6.3K on DraftKings and $7.1K on FanDuel and you’re not sacrificing superior pitching choices to consider him tonight.
As reported by: fangraphs Other tagged players: Francisco Liriano Wilmer Flores has a 176 wRC+, .330 ISO vs LHP since 2015.
Gary Sanchez (187 wRC+, .349 ISO vs RHP) leads all batters tonight in wRC+ against the handedness of the pitcher they are facing tonight over teh 2015 and 2016 seasons. He finally got his first hit in his third game, but has not looked good with a -85 wRC+ to start the season, but does have a 45.5 Hard% on the contact he’s made. Second on that list today is lefty masher Wilmer Flores (.176 wRC+, .330 ISO vs LHP) with just a .301 BABIP and 46.2% of his contact in the air. He’s already added another HR against a lefty in his first start last night. The top five is rounded out by a few usual suspects in Joey Votto (170 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP), Mike Trout (170 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP) and then a tie between George Springer (159 wRC+, .264 ISO vs LHP) and Ryan Braun (159 wRC+, .244 ISO vs LHP). Both Trout and Springer have come out of the game with a wRC+ above 200 this week, while Braun has a 55.6 Hard%.
Other tagged players: Gary Sanchez, Joey Votto, Mike Trout, George Springer, Ryan Braun First Coors Field game of the year highlights the afternoon games
A run total of 11 1/2 runs is a bit low for a Coors Field game but it’s easily the highest of all the day games today giving us plenty of hitting options to target. Hyun-Jin Ryu and Kyle Freeland are the SP’s today and are easy fades given the location of the game despite Freeland being one of the Rockies top prospects. Freeland is a southpaw and the Dodgers have stacked seven RH bats at the top of the order. Justin Turner and Yasiel Puig are the top options and Scott Van Slyke the southpaw-smasher makes for a great value option batting fifth. The rest of the top seven are of course in play. From the Rockies side, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and Mark Reynolds are the top RH bats against the southpaw Ryu.
As reported by: Colorado Rockies official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Yasiel Puig, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
Max Scherzer to make season debut today against Phillies
Scherzer needed a little extra time and will be making his debut for the Nationals tonight against the Phillies. He’s the clear top option coming off a Cy Young season that saw him post a 3.05 SIERA and a K rate of over 30%. Factor in that he is facing a Phillies offense that struggles against RHP and he’s a lock-and-load play for cash games and even worth rostering in GPP’s at extremely high ownership given the lack of top options on the slate. The Phillies offense can be faded completely but you could possibly use Odubel Herrera in the hopes he can go deep against the homer-prone Scherzer. Vincent Velasquez has good upside but has a tough lineup to face in the Nationals and a low win probability makes him a bit less enviable an option. Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper, as usual, are top options against a RHP with Trea Turner and Adam Eaton worthy of consideration if you are looking to stack the Nationals.
As reported by: Washington Nationals official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Odubel Herrera, Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez out of Red Sox lineup as they visit the Detroit Tigers
Steven Wright and the Red Sox visit reigning Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer. Both pitchers are coming off outstanding years but Wright is a knuckle ball pitcher with reverse splits and Fulmer showed signs of regression at the end of the season. It’s expected to be a close game with a run total of 8 1/2. Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez are not in the lineup today for the Red Sox opening up a couple of interesting value options with Brock Holt leading off and Chris Young batting 5th. Holt is the better option of the two though as Young is traditionally much better against LHP. Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Jackie Bradley are the bats to target from the Red Sox but it’s about as weak a Red Sox lineup as you will see all season so there is merit to fading them (and looking to Fulmer as a SP2 option). Wright is a reverse splits pitcher (not surprising as a knuckle baller) who gives up a 32.6% hard contact rate to RHP. Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos, and Victor Martinez have all had some success against Wright and make for a tasty middle-of-the-order stack if you think Wright will falter some. Castellanos is particularly appealing given how he has looked at the plate this season.
As reported by: Detroit Tigers official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Michael Fulmer, Andrew Benintendi, Brock Holt, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez Not a lot to like in the Atlanta at Pittsburgh game today
Today Michael Foltynewicz and the Braves visit Ivan Nova and the Pirates in what is an uninspiring match up on paper. The game has a modest run total of 7 1/2 runs but neither pitcher has the type of game that makes us want to go crazy rostering them. Foltynewicz does carry some strikeout upside but the Braves don’t strike out much and he’s volatile. Nova doesn’t strike out many batters so his upside is limited. Both are worth a look as SP2’s on two pitcher sites but limit your exposure to them (Folty is the higher upside choice of the two and the better GPP play). Freddie Freeman is the top bat to target from this game as he hits RHP hard (.411 wOBA, .292 ISO with 42.8% hard hit rate) with Ender Inciarte a secondary option from the Braves lineup. Folty struggles with LH bats somewhat (.329 wOBA allowed) but the Pirates only have two lefties in their lineup today. Josh Bell, batting 2nd, and Gregory Polanco, batting clean up, are both viable options but not standout ones.
As reported by: Pittsburgh Pirates official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, Mike Foltynewicz Robbie Ray had the fifth highest strikeout rate (28.1%) last year, but allowed a lot of hard contact
Robbie Ray’s 28.1 K% last season was a top five mark among qualified pitchers last season, but he also had major issues with hard contact (36.6 Hard%, 90.7 mph aEV, 8.1 Barrels/BBE). The Giants struck out just 18.4% of the time against LHP, the lowest mark in the National League and Arizona may be the most hitter friendly park outside of Colorado. While that strikeout rate certainly plays on a four game slate, an alternative approach might be a San Francisco stack for the contrarian player. Gorkys Hernandez is off to a hot start and still comes at a bargain price. Buster Posey (143 wRC+, .178 ISO vs LHP in 2016) and Hunter Pence (122 wRC+, .239 ISO) are the obvious RHBs to include in any stack. However, Brandon Belt tied for the team lead in wRC+ (143) and was second with a .212 ISO vs LHP last year.
Other tagged players: Hunter Pence, Buster Posey, Gorkys Hernandez, Robbie Ray