DFS Alerts
ATL/NYM upgraded to yellow/green, expected to play without interruption
Kevin has upgraded the NYM/ATL tilt to yellow/green (from yellow), which is a slight improvement on where we were earlier in the day. Per the weather post, Kevin believes this game should play without interruption, although there is still a shot for a shower to pass over the stadium at some point after first pitch.
As reported by: Kevin Roth
Marcus Stroman was the only qualified starter to reach a 60% ground ball rate last year
Robbie Ray may have more upside, though in a difficult spot and Joe Musgrove might be interesting, but Marcus Stroman probably represents the stability on this short slate. He was the only qualified starter to crack a 60% ground ball rate last year and misses bats at about a league average rate (19.4 K%, 9.3 SwStr%). The Rays should accentuate that strikeout rate tonight (24.2 K% vs RHP last year). Stroman should improve last year’s 4.37 ERA win an increase in his 68.6 LOB%. Stroman costs just $7.5K on FanDuel. If looking towards the Tampa Bay offense, Stroman split his 21 HRs evenly last year along with a 60.1 GB% against batters from either side. Evan Longoria (131 wRC+, .262 ISO) is the lineup’s top hitter against RHP.
Other tagged players: Evan Longoria
Pollock, Peralta, Goldschmidt, Lamb all elite targets on Thursday night
Facing off with Jeff Samardzija in hitter-friendly Chase Field, the D’Backs heart of the order makes for an intriguing target in all game formats. Samardzija allowed 17 of his 24 HRs on the road last season and was worse in basically every facet of pitching will away from San Francisco, which isn’t terribly surprising considering that it’s a park that favors pitching. His HR rate rises even higher when facing LHs on the road (1.58 HR/9), which plays perfectly into the hands of both David Peralta and Jake Lamb, who are underpriced on both major sites this evening. Lamb finished 2016 with a .390 wOBA, 47.7 hard% and elite .310 ISO at home against RHP last season, and with him coming in considerably cheaper than Josh Donaldson, he’s a viable target in any format. We can’t forget about the two RH bats towards the top of the order – Goldschmidt and Pollock. Goldy is the unquestioned top option at 1B, while Pollock is neck and neck with George Springer as the top overall OF play.
Other tagged players: David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock Joe Musgrove sets up as one of the few usable SPs on Thursday's night slate
It’s not likely that we consider Musgrove as a top option on many slates this season, but he’s absolutely in that discussion this evening. He’s jumped to about a -160 favorite on some books in a home match-up with Ariel Miranda and the Mariners, and he’s actually fared very well in Houston in his limited time in the big leagues. While he only racked up 36 IP at home last year, he finished 2016 with a .246 wOBA allowed at home to go along with a 26.1 K% and 2.81 FIP. On the flip side of that, he was better at keeping the ball on the ground on the road (50.6 GB% on the road compared to 36.6% at home) and his 5.1 HR/FB% in Houston isn’t something he’s going to be able to maintain. Still, he faced some tough competition in his home starts last season – he had match-ups with the Blue Jays, Rangers (x2), A’s, Cubs and Angels, so it’s not like he drew a cakewalk of match-ups to bolster his strong home numbers. Marcus Stroman carries a higher floor tonight, but Musgrove isn’t far away and considering he’s available at a lower price tag, he makes plenty of a sense as a GPP pivot off Stroman, who is likely to carry a much higher ownership percentage.
No Alex Bregman in Thursday's Astros lineup; Marwin Gonzalez will bat 2nd
Bregman will get the night off on Thursday against Mariners LH Ariel Miranda, which will afford Marwin Gonzalez the opportunity to bat between Springer and Altuve. Gonzalez is now a perfectly suitable punt play in any format, as the Astros are arguably the top offense to target on the night slate. All of the Houston RH bats are squarely in play here – while Miranda did limit RH bats to a .297 wOBA last season, he did so on the back of a completely unsustainable .183 BABIP. A deeper look into Miranda’s splits makes the RH power bats on the Houston side very intriguing – Miranda allowed a 2.09 HR/9 mark to RHs and had a FIP and xFIP over 5.00. He also finished 2016 with a 28.5% GB rate against RHs, which doesn’t figure to play well in a hitter-friendly environment. Springer, Altuve and Correa are the top overall options at their positions on the late slate, with Carlos Beltran offering elite value on both major sites. Yuli Gurriel is also a suitable punt play out of the six hole, and it’s also worth noting that Evan Gattis is out of Thursday’s lineup (Brian McCann will handle catching duties).
As reported by: @Astros Other tagged players: Alex Bregman Plenty of options to target on Dodgers today as they take on the Padres
The Dodgers come into today’s game as prohibitive favorites against the San Diego Padres. Brandon McCarthy is a clear top option at SP facing a subpar Padres offense and the Dodgers bats get the opportunity to tee off against Jered Weaver who allowed a .365+ wOBA to both sides of the plate last season. The top seven of the Dodgers lineup are all in play with Andrew Toles and Corey Seager at the top of the lineup standing out as the top plays. Joc Pederson batting fifth is also a strong choice.
As reported by: David Vassegh on Twitter Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Andrew Toles, Joc Pederson
Padres huge underdogs facing Brandon McCarthy and the Dodgers today
The Padres visit the Dodgers today and are the biggest underdogs on the board as well as having the lowest team total. Given the match up and lack of quality pitching options, Brandon McCarthy is arguably the top pitcher in the early slate of games. As such targets from the Padres side of the plate are minimal with only Hunter Renfroe and Ryan Schimpf worth a mention. You can safely avoid Jered Weaver as a pitching option.
As reported by: Bob Scanlan on Twitter Other tagged players: Ryan Schimpf Khris Davis and Ryon Healy bats to target for Oakland today against Tyler Skaggs and the Angels
Angels SP Tyler Skaggs has good stuff at times and strikes out batters at a fairly high rate but he struggles with giving up hard contact and walking batters. Ryon Healy and Khris Davis both have .360+ wOBA’s and .235+ ISO’s against LHP’s and are solid options for the afternoon slate of games. Rajai Davis leading off is also in play. For the Angels, Mike Trout (as usual) is the player to target as they face A’s SP Andrew Triggs. While the Angels don’t strike out a ton, Triggs is worth a look at SP, especially on sites that require two SP’s in your lineups – he posted a 23.1% K rate in his six starts last season and is at or near the minimum price across the industry.
As reported by: Oakland Athletics official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Ryon Healy, Mike Trout, Andrew Triggs Stanton (146 wRC+, .295 ISO, 55.9 Hard%) and Ozuna (141 wRC+, .306 ISO, 49 Hard%) crushed LHP in 2016
Tom Koehler did not give up a ton of hard contact, while striking out batters at nearly a league average rate last year, but had issues with free passes (10.7%). That’s not the prototype of pitcher to either use or attack normally for DFS purposes, especially when his wOBA sits between .320 and .332 against batters from either side of the plate over the last two seasons. LHBs have made more hard contact though (33.4%), making Bryce Harper (118 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP last season) and Daniel Murphy (163 wRC+, .261 ISO) the most obvious candidates here, but perhaps Trea Turner (159 wRC+, .258 ISO) and Adam Eaton (119 wRC+, .166 ISO) are the more interesting targets as they’re more likely to do more with a walk once they get on base, though it may not be an ideal combination to run on. Don’t look for much in the way of salary relief here, but players should be able to afford bats today. On the other side, Gio Gonzalez needs to be considered by default on a pitching poor slate. While his strikeout rate (22.4%) and GB rate (47.6%) were at career rates, his walk rate was actually lower than average for the first time, though he had a 4.57 ERA due to a low strand rate and a career high 19 HRs. Somewhat of a bounce back is expected this season. Giancarlo Stanton (146 wRC+, .295 ISO, 55.9 Hard% vs LHP last year) and Marcell Ozuna (141 wRC+, .306 ISO, 49 Hard%) are nearly always strong considerations against non-elite LHPs. However, they were the only above average hitters in this lineup against southpaws last year.
Other tagged players: Marcell Ozuna, Gio Gonzalez, Tom Koehler, Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy James Shields faces a Detroit offense that mashed RHP last year
Matt Boyd is a fly ball pitcher with league average peripherals and hard contact issues. 17 HRs in 97 innings in 2016 was actually a significant improvement on 17 HRs in 57 innings in 2015. That said, we’re looking at a cheap pitcher who misses bats at an average rate against what’s expected to be a below average offense on a day when quality starting pitching is scarce. There aren’t many pitchers on the slate we can look at assuredly say are much better. The White Sox are entirely RH today though, and Boyd has been hammered by RHP (.356 wOBA career). Tyler Saladino (118 wRC+) and Tim Anderson (114 wRC+) are affordable bats, who were each above average vs LHP last year, though both with regression projected BABIPs over .390. Jose Abreu (121 wRC+, .238 ISO, 39.4 Hard% and Fly Ball% against LHP last year) and Todd Frazier (112 wRC+, .278 ISO, 30.3 Hard%, 60.5 Fly Ball%) are more expensive power generators. Detroit is projected to score a slate high 4.9 runs against James Shields and the White Sox. This is an offense players should be looking to stack as both RH and LH batters have hit Shields well in recent seasons. The first six batters all had a 105 wRC+, .180 ISO and 30 Hard% or better vs RHP last season. Ian Kinsler has four career HRs against Shields, while Miguel Cabrera led the team with a 156 wRC+ and .258 ISO vs RHP last year. He also led the league with 10.6% Barrels/PA according to Statcast. He has just two HRs, but 10 extra-base hits in 63 career PAs against Shields.
As reported by: Statcast Other tagged players: Ian Kinsler, James Shields, Matthew Boyd, Tim Anderson, Tyler Saladino, Todd Frazier, Jose Abreu Cubs at Cardinals has lowest total of the afternoon games
There aren’t many standout pitching options in the early slate of MLB games today which makes the Cubs John Lackey one of the top options of the day. If he was facing any other team but the pesky Cardinals, he’d be the top option but St. Louis doesn’t strike out much limiting Lackey’s upside (although he did have a 24.1% K rate last season). The Cardinals starting pitcher is Lance Lynn who is coming off Tommy John surgery so it’s hard to know what to expect from the right-hander, especially facing the powerful Cubs lineup. Kyle Schwarber (leading off) and Anthony Rizzo (batting 3rd) are the top Cubs bats to target with Kris Bryant (2nd), Ben Zobrist (4th), and Addison Russell (5th) also viable options. Matt Carpenter and his .385 wOBA and .261 ISO against RHP is the top Cardinals option while Dexter Fowler leading off against his former team is also worth a look.
As reported by: Jenifer Langosch on Twitter Other tagged players: Lance Lynn, Anthony Rizzo, Matt Carpenter Rockies and Brewers set to square off in what should be a high-scoring game
With a Vegas run total of nine and Antonio Senzatela making his big league debut for the Rockies against homer-prone Chase Anderson there should be plenty of fantasy goodness to be had in Milwaukee today. Anderson is an extreme reverse splits pitcher as he allowed a staggering .394 wOBA and 17 HR’s in just over 80 innings of work last season to RH bats. He fared much better against LH bats (.289 wOBA). Nolan Arenado is the top option in the Rockies lineup today along with Trevor Story, DJ LeMahieu, and Mark Reynolds. From the Brewers side, Ryan Braun is not in the lineup leaving Jonathan Villar, Eric Thames, and Travis Shaw as the bats to target. If you’re looking for value, Jesus Aguilar batting third is near minimum price.
As reported by: Colorado Rockies official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Trevor Story, Jesus Aguilar Royals left-handed bats in prime spot against Twins SP Kyle Gibson
Minnesota Twins SP Kyle Gibson allowed a .380 wOBA to LH bats last season including 9 HR’s in just 66 innings pitched. Four of the top six spots of the Royals batting order are occupied by LH bats and all are in play today against Gibson. Alex Gordon leads off, Mike Moustakas bats second, Eric Hosmer bats cleanup, and Brandon Moss hits sixth. The rest of the top six (Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez) are also in play as Gibson also allowed 11 HR’s in 81 1/3 innings pitched to RH bats last season. All are reasonably priced and Hosmer is probably the best of the group. Jason Hammel makes his Royals debut and he’s also somewhat vulnerable to LH bats having allowed a .344 wOBA to them in 2016. Brian Dozier is always the top option on the Twins but don’t sleep on the value of Max Kepler batting second or Joe Mauer (batting 4th) and Jason Castro (batting 6th). Neither pitcher is particularly appealing but if you are going to chose one from this game go with Hammel as he does have some K upside with a K rate topping 20% against both sides of the plate.
As reported by: LaVelle Neal on Twitter Other tagged players: Max Kepler Joey Votto top option today facing Clay Bucholz and the Phillies
Phillies SP Clay Bucholz is coming off a season that saw him allow a .342 wOBA to LH bats and a total of 21 home runs allowed in just 139 1/3 innings pitched. Joey Votto headlines a Reds lineup that has potential against the former Red Sox ace. Votto has a .436 wOBA and .252 ISO against RH pitching, easily the tops of the bunch in the Reds lineup. Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler are also worth a look and Billy Hamilton leading off always has upside with his ability to steal bases (if he can get on base). The Phillies lineup is also in play as they face rookie William Davis in his major league debut. Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, and Michael Saunders are all viable options by themselves or as part of a team stack with Herrera and Franco the top two of that group. Daniel Nava is an intriguing value option batting second but he has limited upside.
As reported by: Mark Sheldon on Twitter Other tagged players: Maikel Franco, Odubel Herrera Pirates-Red Sox PPD'd
Do not roster players from this game.
