DFS Alerts
Trevor Plouffe (illness) scratched from A's lineup tonight; Mark Canha will start
Plouffe has officially been scratched from the Oakland Athletics initial confirmed lineup due to an illness. He will be replaced in the lineup by Mark Canha, who will start at DH and bat eighth. This change will also push Ryon Healy from the DH spot to his normal 3B position. Canha isn’t a particularly intriguing option, especially batting in the eighth hole, along with the other Athletics bats, given the subpar hitting matchup against Yu Darvish, who is shaping up to be one of the top pitching options on Saturday’s slate.
As reported by: Susan Slussler
LAD/COL upgraded to GREEN in Kevin Roth's latest weather update
In Kevin Roth’s latest weather update, he has upgraded the Dodgers-Rockies game to GREEN, meaning that the weather situation should be all clear and the rain is projected to stay far west of the stadium. Outside of a few wind concerns, the weather is not expected to play too much of a factor in tonight’s outcomes. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he is always posting updates and answering weather-related questions, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Mariners bats will go overlooked in tournaments despite juicy matchup against Ricky Nolasco
Nolasco is coming off an uninspiring outing on Opening Day in which he allowed 3 ER to the Oakland Athletics in just 5.2 innings of work. The majority of the damage stemmed from two longballs, which could be a concerning trend for him heading into a matchup with the Seattle Mariners that have power bats swinging from both sides of the plate. The home run trend is also one that could be an issue from here on out if Nolasco’s hard contact rate (34.1% HH% in 2016) fails to normalize closer to his career average given his subpar 18.8% career strikeout rate. The only factor working against a Mariners stack in tournaments is the fact that Angels Stadium significantly suppresses power and remains primarily a pitchers park. The Mariners bats will almost certainly go overlooked in tournaments with Coors Field and Chase Field each available as options on Saturday’s main slate, but Seattle hitters with power upside like Robinson Cano (151 wRC+, .389 wOBA, .263 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), Kyle Seager (148 wRC+, .386 wOBA, .223 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), Nelson Cruz (130 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .222 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), and Mitch Haniger (.196 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17) could make for an interesting, under-owned stack in large field tournaments, as this is a matchup where they are primed to break out of their early-season slump.
Other tagged players: Kyle Seager, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger Yu Darvish posted a 31.7% K% in 2016, the highest K% of any starting pitcher on tonight's slate
Yu Darvish is coming off a less than stellar outing in which he issued five free passes and gave up 4 ER to the Cleveland Indians on Opening Day. He’ll look to regain his control and get back on track tonight in a much better matchup against an exploitable Oakland Athletics lineup. The Athletics were a very difficult lineup to strikeout in 2016, as they posted the 5th lowest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching, but they have experienced some turnover in their lineup over the course of the offseason and there are several new faces in this Oakland batting order this season. So, in other words, last season’s trend may not hold true. Darvish induced an elite 31.7% strikeout rate last season, which is actually just a tad higher than Clayton Kershaw’s 31.6% strikeout rate from 2016, bestowing him the honor of the starting pitcher with the highest strikeout rate on Saturday’s slate. Darvish is an intriguing tournament pivot off of Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner given his clear strikeout upside against any lineup combined with the fact that the Athletics ranked in the bottom-third of the league in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against right-handed pitching last season.
As reported by: FanGraphs Tommy Milone surrendered a 42.0% HH% and a 44.7% FB% to RHB in 2016
In his first start of the season, Tommy Milone draws a tough assignment in a matchup with the Chicago Cubs, though he may be catching them at just the right time given how quiet the Cubs bats have been out of the gate. In 2015, Milone surrendered the highest hard contact rate of his career, and it wasn’t even particularly close, as his 35.6% hard contact rate blew away his previous career-worst mark of 31.0% in 2013 with the Oakland Athletics. It will be interesting to see whether last season’s numbers were just an anomaly or if they should be treated as the norm going forward. However, even without the possibility of his hard contact rate normalizing, Milone is still a low-strikeout pitcher (career 16.8% K%) that doesn’t do a particularly great job of keeping the ball on the ground (career 38.8% GB%). This should put right-handed Cubs bats like Kris Bryant (176 wRC+, .437 wOBA, .325 ISO vs LHP in 2016/17) and Wilson Contreras (132 wRC+, .372 wOBA, .187 ISO vs LHP in 2016/17) in incredible spots given their elite contact skills and ability to the leave the yard on any given night. Bryant clearly checks in as one of the top overall hitting options on the entire slate, but if stacking up Cubs hitters in tournaments, don’t be afraid to include Anthony Rizzo (128 wRC+, .366 wOBA, .203 ISO vs LHP in 2016/17), who can more than hold his own against left-handed pitching, despite giving up the platoon advantage.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Tommy Milone Ryan Braun (lower back tightness) scratched from Brewers lineup, Nick Franklin will start in LF
Braun has officially been scratched from the Milwaukee Brewers initial confirmed lineup due to tightness in his lower back. He will be replaced in the lineup by Nick Franklin, who will start in left field and bat sixth. Despite drawing the sixth spot in the order, Franklin isn’t a particularly intriguing option, along with the other Brewers bats, given the subpar hitting matchup against Kyle Hendricks.
As reported by: Verified Twitter Account of the Milwaukee Brewers Other tagged players: Nick Franklin The Royals currently have a 3.4 run implied team total, the second-lowest on the slate
Keuchel is coming off an Opening Day start in which he held the Seattle Mariners scoreless in seven innings of work. He’ll look to keep the good times rolling in tonight’s matchup against a weak-hitting Kansas City Royals lineup. Keuchel has become a slightly below average strikeout pitcher, as his strikeout rate seemed to normalize last season at 20.5% following a slightly inflated 23.7% strikeout rate during his Cy Young campaign. This certainly isn’t a high-ceiling matchup for Keuchel in terms of strikeouts, as the Royals owned the 7th lowest strikeout rate in the Majors against left-handed pitching in 2016, but it does set up well as nice run prevention spot where he can impose his elite 56.7% ground ball rate and 21.1% soft contact rate he induced last season on this unimposing Royals lineup. The primary appeal of Keuchel comes in tournaments, as his significant price discount from Madison Bumgarner would allow you to drastically differentiate your hitters and overall lineup construction, though he is certainly in consideration as an SP2 on DraftKings for all formats as well. As for the Royals offense, there really aren’t any individual hitters that stand out from a matchup standpoint, meaning that they are best utilized as a stack or a complete fade in tournaments. If rolling out a Royals stack, you’re really just banking on a blowup start from Keuchel since Kansas City is unlikely to hit multiple long balls off of him.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Jeremy Guthrie surrendered 2.26 HR/9 against LHP in 2015, his last full season in the Majors
Jeremy Guthrie is set to make his first Major League start of 2017 tonight against the Philadelphia Phillies and his first since pitching for the Kansas City Royals in 2015. Guthrie is no longer a Big League caliber arm in the rotation, which is backed up by his atrociously low 12.7% strikeout rate and 5.02 SIERA from the aforementioned season. In 2015, Guthrie allowed just slightly above the league average hard contact (30.7%) but surrendered fly balls nearly 40% of the time, meaning he can be susceptible to the long ball in the right matchups. However, the fly ball nature of Guthrie can make him a frustrating pitcher to stack against if the BABIP ends up working in his favor. With plenty of other high team totals on the slate, the preferred route would be to target one or two Phillies bats with some home run upside, like Michael Saunders (.205 ISO vs RHP in 2016) or Tommy Joseph (.226 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), who also happen to slot into the fifth and sixth spot in the Phillies order this evening.
Other tagged players: Tommy Joseph Following his terrible Opening Day start, Masahiro Tanaka looks to rebound against this powerful Orioles lineup
Tanaka is coming off a horrendous performance on Opening Day, but barring some sort of injury he should be expected to bounce back relatively quickly. Tanaka’s advanced stats paint the picture of an above average to a league-average starting pitcher, evidenced by his 3.79 SIERA and 20.5% strikeout rate in 2016. His bread and butter are excellent control and the ability to limit big innings, which is aided by his low 4.4% career walk rate. Tanaka gets in trouble when he fails to limit hard contact and it was the primary reason behind the blow up in his first start, surrendering hard contact 53.8% of the time through 2.2 innings pitched on Sunday. The Orioles are a boom or bust offense with a ton of power throughout their lineup but are susceptible to being shut down by opposing starting pitchers that can keep them in the yard. This is one of those strange matchups where both sides are firmly in play. On a slate dearth of pitching options, you could do a lot worse than Tanaka, who could easily post a top two or three pitching performance this afternoon. On the other hand, the Orioles bats could tag Tanaka for a few of homers with the wind blowing out to right field combined with the possibility he could continue to struggle to start this young season. The top Orioles to target for that bomb or maybe even two would be Mark Trumbo (.303 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), Manny Machado (.254 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), and Chris Davis (.259 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17).
Other tagged players: Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado, Chris Davis Chris Archer posted a stellar 22.9% K-BB% post All-Star break in 2016
Archer is looking to build off of his solid Opening Day performance when he held the Yankees to just 2 ER in seven innings pitched while striking out five. He draws a difficult matchup this evening with a Toronto squad that is known for their immense power against both righty and lefty starting pitchers. However, Archer is far and above the best starting pitcher available on the early slate, making it extremely easy to ignore the difficult matchup and just focus on Archer’s ceiling in this spot.The Blue Jays are an extremely righty-heavy lineup, as Kendrys Morales is the really the only Toronto regular that hits from the left side of the plate. coincidentally, Archer has owned right-handed bats throughout his career, sporting a dazzling .280 wOBA against them. His 2016 numbers are slightly skewed given his shaky start to the season, but he still managed to post a well-above league average 27.1% strikeout rate against righties. The Blue Jays are obviously a team that should be avoided as a stack in the early set of games, but if looking to go homerun hunting, Josh Donaldson (158 wRC+, .408 wOBA vs RHP in 2016/17) can take anyone deep at any time, evidenced by his .273 ISO versus right-handed pitching over the course of last two seasons.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson Cardinals bats against Bronson Arroyo, yes, that Bronson Arroyo, highlight the hitting options on Early Slate
The Cardinals are set to take on the Cincinnati Reds this afternoon in what looks like to be a perfect day for baseball in St. Louis. The Reds are going to trot out the grizzled veteran, Bronson Arroyo, who will be making his first start in the Majors since 2014 when he started seven games for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arroyo’s advanced pitching stats were actually relatively league-average in his final two seasons, as he posted a sub 4.10 SIERA in both 2013 and 2014. His main downfall looked to be the amount of hard contact he was surrendering, setting career highs with a 32.8% and 35.1% hard contact rate allowed in his last two campaigns. Regardless what the numbers imply about what Arroyo was, the Cardinals hitters are primed to be one of the top teams to target among the early games since it’s unlikely that Arroyo will suddenly become an above-average Major League pitcher after a two-year absence from The Show. Arroyo struggled the most with lefties in his final season with Cincinnati, surrendering a .368 wOBA and 2.11 HR/9 while striking out left-handed batters just 12.1% of the time. This puts Matt Carpenter (140 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .255 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17) and Dexter Fowler (126 wRC+, .363 wOBA, .165 ISO vs RHP in 2016) firmly in play for all formats. Meanwhile, Matt Adams (.215 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17) is a boom or bust tournament target but does get the added benefit of batting cleanup for the Cards this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Dexter Fowler, Matt Adams Carlos Santana starts in RF, Encarnacion at 1B in Arizona
Carlos Santana to RF has several implications in an NL park. First, it allows both he and Edwin Encarnacion to remain in the lineup, making Shelby Miller’s job a bit tougher. Secondly, Josh Tomlin is a fly ball pitcher in a tough park in Arizona. This may make his job tougher as well, so downgrade both pitchers, upgrade both offenses a bit here. The last thing to think about is that perhaps either Santana or Encarnacion are removed for defense after three PAs.
Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Shelby Miller, Josh Tomlin
Matt Joyce and Rickie Weeks are bargain basement options tonight.
With pitching so inexpensive today, players probably aren’t in need to too many bargain bats, but you may still be looking to potentially punt a position. If so, Matt Joyce (141 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP last season) is in a nice spot, batting second in Texas against a pitcher who allowed a lot of hard contact in the air to RHBs last year (44.4%). He costs just $3K on DraftKings and $2.1K on FanDuel. Rickie Weeks (133 wRC+, .272 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is a minimally priced option in the cleanup spot against tonight’s top pitcher, but also a very flawed one. If you’re looking to punt Catcher, A.J. Ellis is not much of a bat, but does have a good eye and bats second against a pitcher who is returning from TJS and previously had control problems (Zack Wheeler). Derek Norris did not hit at all last season but bats fifth against Liriano and costs $2.6K or less on either site. Those are the confirmed bats in the top half of any lineup tonight for $3K or less on DraftKings. FanDuel has a few more cheap options. Mitch Haniger might be a league average bat against the hittable Jesse Chavez. He’s projected to bat second again for the Mariners at the minimum price. Jesus Aguilar bats fifth for the Brewers against lefty Brett Anderson. He hasn’t shown much in the majors, but his power was on display this spring. Wilmer Flores (176 wRC+, .330 ISO vs LHP since 2015) bats cleanup for the Mets and costs just $2.3K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Wilmer Flores, A.J. Ellis, Mitch Haniger, Jesus Aguilar, Derek Norris, Rickie Weeks Strong winds in New York and Baltimore in Kevin's evening update.
Kevin’s evening forecast slightly downgrades the Marlins Mets affair, but only to YELLOW/GREEN for the potential of a late start. Both this game (out to right) and Yankees Orioles (left to right) may have some serious wind issues, but the threat of rain is not a concern for any other game.
Kyle Schwarber and Francisco Liriano expected to be most popular plays tonight
Kyle Schwarber is projected to be owned more than any other batter tonight on either and that makes sense with such a nice matchup against Jimmy Nelson, especially on DraftKings where he’s still Catcher eligible. It should also be no surprise that Francisco Liriano is projected to be overwhelmingly popular on either site according to our Projected Ownership page. An interesting spot is at Third Base where noted lefty mashers Miguel Sano (126 wRC+, .247 ISO since 2015) and Wilmer Flores (176 wRC+, .330 ISO) are both facing cold temperatures, but are also both hitting cleanup with favorable matchups. Each are projected for less than 10% ownership. Outfielders to consider are Nelson Cruz (138 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Khris Davis (124 wRC+, .274 ISO vs RHP since 2015). Both are facing same handed pitchers, but are projected for less than 10% ownership on FanDuel. Each hit the ball incredibly hard against pitchers who allow a lot of hard contact in the air.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Francisco Liriano, Wilmer Flores, Miguel Sano, Nelson Cruz, Khris Davis