DFS Alerts

Top Strikeout Rate on the Board in a Tough Spot

An eight game Monday night slate heavily favors pitching with two pitchers exceeding $10K on both sites and another two on FanDuel alone. That’s one-quarter of the available pitching on a board lacking extremely positive run environments with decent hitting weather. The most expensive pitcher on the board with an $11.2K price tag on FanDuel, but $900 less on DraftKings, $200 behind his opponent, is Shane McClanahan, who allowed multiple homers for only the second time this year, against the Yankees last time out. Although only one was “earned”, it was also the most runs (four) scored against him in an outing this year. However, it was still his seventh straight Quality Start with a total of nine runs (five earned) over that span. McClanahan’s 35.2 K% is the best on the board. He’s struck out at least seven in 12 of 13 starts this year with all non-FIP estimators (17.5 HR/FB) below two and a half. However, the quality of opposition (NYY 118 wRC+, 9.2 BB%, 18.6 HR/FB against LHP) drops him to the second best projected pitcher on the board (PlateIQ projections are fluid and updated throughout the day), though there should be some strikeouts in the Yankee lineup (23.9 K% vs LHP). McClanahan is a top five projected point per dollar value on DraftKings as well. Find out who is the top projected pitcher on the board and the best projected value among the high priced arms in Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Mookie Betts (rib) scratched Saturday

Mookie Betts (rib) scratched Saturday

Mookie Betts scratched Friday

Mookie Betts scratched Friday

Austin Meadows scratched Friday

Austin Meadows scratched Friday

Cheap Lineup Projects as Top Value Stack Because Not All Their Bats are Bad

Even with several other teams above five implied runs and nearly half the board above four and a half, the Padres are running away with this thing, approaching a seven run team total at Coors tonight and DraftKings doesn’t even make it that hard to afford them. Naturally, they top stacking ownership projections on either site, nearing 20% on DraftKings (though the Phillies also project for double digit stack ownership) and 15% on FanDuel without any other team projecting much higher than nine percent. The Padres also smash the slate most often in simulations, around 50% above the next “smashiest” stack (Dodgers) on FanDuel. However, with the Phillies available only on DraftKings, they smash the slate just 3.5 percentage points less often than San Diego there. As mentioned, San Diego bats are under-priced on DraftKings and they are the top projected value stack, but again, with the Phillies not too far behind. The top projected value stack on FanDuel currently (PlateIQ projections are fluid and are updated throughout the day) is the Tigers. They’re a terrible hitting team, but also priced barely above the minimum, while someone like Austin Meadows is still a quality bat against RHP (132 wRC+, .245 ISO since LY), costing just $2.3K. Only one of the above mentioned teams is also currently a top rated stack and it’s not the Padres. To find out more, check out today’s PliateIQ Live Blog.

Top Projected Bat and Value at Coors

With so much expensive pitching on the board and the Padres separating themselves from the rest of the board with a near seven run team total tonight, it’s mighty convenient that DraftKings has failed to price up San Diego bats for the occasion. MVP front runner Manny Machado (133 wRC+, .224 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is priced up nearly every night, but only one other batter in this projected lineup exceeds $4.3K on DraftKings tonight. PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change) suggest you’ll either have to drop to the bottom of the order (Jose Azocar 92 wRC+ last 30 days) or forfeit the platoon advantage (Eric Hosmer 99 wRC+ vs LHP since last year) for the most value in bats costing less than $3K, but Luke Voit (103 wRC+, .116 ISO vs LHP since last season) doubles as top overall projected bat and value for just $3.8K. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against Kyle Freeland since last season.

If it’s not the Padres, projections on either site suggest a lot of value bats in the Rangers/Tigers matchup, which is ironic, considering Jon Gray and Tarik Skubal are really pitchers you should consider using tonight at their current costs. However, the Rangers have done well against LHP (114 wRC+) and RHBs do have a .321 wOBA (.347 xwOBA) against Skubal since last season, while Charlie Culberson (132 wRC+, .166 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and Leody Tavares (34 wRC+) both cost the minimum, projecting as top six values on DraftKings currently. These two likely bottom of the order plays are more akin to punts that allow you to fill out the rest of your lineup.

Projections for FanDuel suggest some value on the other side of this matchup. Jon Gray has shown recent upside, but has been inconsistent and most of what we like about him is the matchup. However, there are price tags at which Detroit bats will have some value and FD appears to have found them. Austin Meadows (132 wRC+, .245 ISO), Victor Reyes (76 wRC+) and Javier Baez (81 wRC+, .183 ISO) all cost exactly $2.3K on FanDuel. Gray doesn’t really have much of a platoon split since last year with LHBs owning a .308 wOBA and .316 xwOBA against him, while RHBs have a .323 wOBA, but .302 xwOBA.

FanDuel Players Miss Out on Some Top Projected Bats on Friday

An 11 or 12 game slate that includes Coors, but no additional outrageous weather conditions (Wrigley is off the slate), sees the San Diego Padres topping the board by a full implied run (6.81). In fact, the team with the second highest run total (Phillies 5.85) is only available on DraftKings tonight. We then go back to Coors for the Rockies (5.69) before finding three more teams between five and five and one-quarter runs. Six more exceed four and a half implied runs. Unsurprisingly, the Padres are the only offense to place multiple batters among the top 10 hitters tonight (PlateIQ). In fact, we can find three San Diego bats projected near the top of the board on either site tonight. Manny Machado (133 wRC+, .224 ISO vs LHP since LY) is the top projected bat on the board on FanDuel tonight, while Jake Cronenworth (122 wRC+, .164 ISO) and Luke Voit (103 wRC+, .116 ISO) aren’t far behind. The lack of power in Voit’s bat with the platoon advantage is surprising, but also not an incredibly large sample since last year. Kyle Freeland has struck out just eight of his last 79 batters and has just a 16.4 K% on the season, which is really the only thing that has been off average about his game this season. He’s complied Quality Starts in five of his last eight, no small feat with three of those coming at Coors, though he doesn’t have a non-FIP estimator (8.0 HR/FB) below his 4.39 ERA. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .320 and .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season.

Bryce Harper (187 wRC+, .346 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Kyle Schwarber (148 wRC+, .341 ISO) are the top two projected bats on DraftKings (not available on FD). Although they are not at home tonight, they should have some hitter friendly conditions in another hitter friend park in Washington, facing a pitcher making just his second start of the season, facing just 14 batters (53 pitches), after making 19 of his 35 appearances last year in a starting role. Paolo Espino’s work out of the pen has been fairly marginal with a 3.4 BB% lessening the cost of an 18.5 K% (8.5 SwStr%, 43.6 Z-O-Swing%), while the fact that just two of six barrels (6.5%) have left the yard (4.9 HR/FB) hasn’t hurt either. Estimators range from slightly below three (FIP) to slightly above four (DRA), but LHBs own a .313 wOBA (.325 xwOBA) against him since last year and the Washington bullpen has a major league worst 5.50 FIP over the last 30 days.

The only other offense to place multiple bats inside the top 10 projections on FanDuel is the Yankees. Aaron Judge (168 wRC+, .287 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Giancarlo Stanton (135 wRC+, .252 ISO) are regular residents of this list, more due to their own prowess than the matchup tonight. Toronto may be a small park downgrade, though both parks are near neutral run environments, but the Yankees carry a modest (for this slate) 4.75 team total tonight. Ross Stripling has been shuffled in and out of the rotation a couple of times this year. He’s yet to allow a single run over 13.2 June innings, which includes two starts. He hasn’t walked a batter either, while striking out just eight of 45 faced. He’s generated a solid 15.6 K-BB%, due to the elite control (4.7 BB%), but the main difference between this year and last is that he’s allowed just three home runs over 43 innings after allowing 23 in 101.1 IP last year even though he’s allowing barrels at similar rates (8.5% and 11.2%), so perhaps is regression time against Judge and friends. While Stripling has actually performed worse against RHBs since last year (.327 wOBA & xwOBA), Statcast pushes his .288 wOBA against LHBs up to a .337 xwOBA.

A Top Projected Value for Less Than $9K and Your Low Priced DraftKings Compliment

Not only do we currently have five pitchers reaching $10K on at least one site tonight (depending on whether Pablo Lopez actually starts or not), but there are three more in the $9K range on both sites. Robbie Ray only reaches $9K on one site (FanDuel), but is still the top projected value there and second best point per dollar value on DraftKings (although projections are fluid and subject to change). With Ray, you don’t know what you’re going to get in any given start, which certainly isn’t as good as last year’s Cy Young award winner, but probably better than when you knew you were going to get lots of walks and bombs. After a 32.7 K% over a seven start span spiked his season strikeout rate over one-quarter of the batters he faced, he’s struck out just seven of his last 50, but did just break a streak of home runs allowed in seven straight games (10) on 11 barrels (11.4%). Ironically, the overall result is pretty marginal. Combining a 16.4 K-BB% with 8.5% Barrels/BBE, estimators range from 3.81 SIERA to a 4.60 FIP. The slumping Angels have a 96 wRC+ and 24 K% vs LHP this season. It’s a high upside matchup in a great park. Ray could certainly blow up, but he could also win a GPP for someone tonight.

A sub-$9K pitcher who also projects as a top value on either site is Jon Gray and this is due to a combination of his own skills and a tremendous matchup. Gray struck out double digit batters with no more than one run in at least six innings in two of his last three starts (Rays, White Sox), but in between, he struck out just three of 26 Guardians with five runs against him and only has more than four strikeouts in two other starts this year. That said, he does have a 27.8 K% over his last six starts and is up to 26% on the season, which he’s going to need with a double digit walk rate (10%) and average contact profile (88.4 mph EV, 6.6% Barrels/BBE). Estimators are tightly grouped between a 3.63 DRA and 3.83 SIERA, more than a run below his 4.85 ERA (66.1 LOB%). More enticing, Gray is in Detroit tonight. The Tigers have a 65 wRC+, 24.9 K%, 6.3 BB% and 6.8 HR/FB vs LHP this year. Each of those are bottom two marks on the board. This may be a strong enough matchup for Gray to stand alone for $8.6K on FanDuel, but costs a mere $6.9K on DraftKings, where he projects as a top three value and a great complement to your higher priced arm, as there are no other pitchers who project similarly in his price range on DK.

Tarik Skubal costs at least $9K on both sites, but still projects as the fifth best value on either site on the other end of this matchup in Detroit. He’s about the only thing that’s working out concerning the Detroit rebuild. Although he’s allowed at least three runs in three of his last four starts, he has just a 3.60 ERA over that span because he’s completed seven innings in three of them also. Skubal has a 27.6 K% with just a 4.4 BB% and above average ground ball rate (47.3%), resulting in estimators all below three and within half a run of his 2.71 ERA. The Rangers have been productive against LHP (114 wRC+, 21.4 K%, 17.5 HR/FB), but Skubal has pitched like a $10K arm this year.

Carlos Carrasco is another pitcher in the $9K range worth looking at. He has allowed at least four runs in three of his last six starts, including his last time out, but just a total three in his other three, while also striking out at least seven in three of his last four, including his last time out. A .333 BABIP that’s 42 points above what his defense has allowed has his 3.93 ERA more than one-third of a run above all estimators next to an 18.8 K-BB%. The Marlins have been surprisingly good against RHP (113 wRC+, 21.9 K%, 14.4 HR/FB), despite running out a predominantly right-handed lineup, but Carrasco pitches in a great park and has been better than his surface numbers.

Top Priced Pitcher May Be Limited in Low Upside Matchup

A 12 game Friday night slate (11 on FanDuel without game two in Washington) offers us five $10K pitchers, though Clayton Kershaw is the only one of those on both sites with a $10.5K price tag across the board. While the question over the last half decade has often been more about health than Kershaw’s performance, his return from a month long stay on the IL was just mediocre against the Giants (4 IP – 2 R – 1 HR – 2 BB – 4 K – 18 BF). It’s a bit difficult to judge him on six starts this year because 20 of his 36 strikeouts cam in his first two starts, the driving force behind a 24.4 K-BB%. More optimistically, he does have a long history of producing similar numbers, so combined with an 87.3 mph EV and 5.9% Barrels/BBE, a bunch of estimators below three seems fine, though DRA is a lonely dissenter (3.31). The problems include a likely workload limitation well below 100 pitches (his high is 87 this season) and a Cleveland offense that doesn’t hit LHP well (88 wRC+, 6.8 HR/FB), but does make contact (19.3K%) against them. Early PlateIQ projections have Kershaw outside the top three arms on either site. With so many high priced pitchers tonight, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out which one projects best.

Luis Severino (COVID) scratched Thursday, Clarke Schmidt will start

Luis Severino (COVID) scratched Thursday, Clarke Schmidt will start

Two Stacks Projected to Smash with Great Value

On a nine game slate that still includes Coors and even better hitting weather at Wrigley than last night, projections suggest that some of those stacks are going to separate themselves from the rest of the board, especially on DraftKings, where both Coors teams and the Cubs currently project above 14% ownership with no other stack currently reaching 9.0% (although, remember that projections are fluid and updated throughout the day). All three stacks are also projected for double digit ownership on FanDuel, but closer to the pack with the Blue Jays joining the group as well. Smashing the slate most often in simulations are the Toronto and Colorado offenses, both around 15% and 50% higher than anyone else against Bruce Zimmermann and Konnor Pilkington. Ironically, these stacks are also projected for top value on FanDuel tonight with a mix of expensive and cheap bats. C.J. Cron (128 wRC+, .264 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is the only Rockie above $3.2K in the projected lineup. Toronto bats are more expensive on DraftKings with Colorado blowing the rest of the slate out of the water with a 19.15 Value% projection, a full eight points better than the next best projected value stack (Oakland). Which red hot team may be getting over-looked tonight? Find out in today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Kyle Farmer scratched Wednesday

Kyle Farmer scratched Wednesday

Tonight's Top Offenses Should Be Loaded with Value

Not only does a hot and humid Wrigley with 20 mph winds blowing out produce some of tonight’s top projected bats overall, it also generates several top value projections, as pricing isn’t able to take weather into consideration. In fact, four of the top six projected values on FanDuel come from the home team side in Yan Gomes (118 wRC+, .213 ISO), Frank Schwindel (145 wRC+, .273 ISO vs LHP since 2021), Willson Contreras (two home runs last night, 171 wRC+, .337 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and Patrick Wisdom (126 wRC+, .273 ISO). The latter two double as top overall projected bats against the returning Ryan Weathers (5.0 K-BB% at AAA), against whom RHBs had a .367 wOBA (.347 xwOBA) last year. Jason Heyward (53 wRC+), costing the minimum, joins Schwindel and Wisdom as top projected values on DraftKings, all costing $3.5K or less.

A trio from the visiting side all project as top 10 values against Caleb Kilian, who is 11 days removed from a major league debut in which he struck out six of 19 Cardinals with a 54.5 GB% and an 81.5 mph EV. The newly turned 25 year-old with a 45 Future Value grade (Fangraphs) has registered a 16.9 K-BB% over 43 AAA innings, his lowest K-BB rate at any level of minor league play. Nomar Mazara (115 wRC+ since being called up), Eric Hosmer (108 wRC+ vs RHP since 2021) and Trent Grisham (91 wRC+, .155 ISO) all cost $2.6K or less on DK.

FanDuel projections suggest supplementing your Toronto stacks with Teoscar Hernandez (198 wRC+, .338 ISO) and Alejandro Kirk (146 wRC+, .213 ISO) for less than $3K against Bruce Zimmermann (RHBs .364 wOBA (.390 xwOBA) since last year. This should allow players to stack the entire first half of the Toronto lineup, which is second on the board to only the Cubs, at 6.16 implied runs.

Pair of Teammates Among Top Projected Bats for Third Consecutive Day

Yesterday may have been one of the most hitter friendly slates of the season up until that point, but Wednesday night’s nine game slate blows it out of the water with no fewer than four offenses reaching six implied runs, due to Coors and Wrigley winds again, while four more have team run totals exceeding 5.25 and one more above four and a half. Two pairs of teammates project as top 10 bats on both sites tonight, coming from the two highest run totals on the board. WIllson Contreras (two home runs last night, 171 wRC+, .337 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is the second best projected bat on the board and Patrick Wisdom (126 wRC+, .273 ISO) is seventh, while both are also top 10 projected values on FanDuel (Wisdom is on DraftKings as well). Ryan Weathers struggled enough in his rookie season (10.5 K-BB%, 8.4% Barrels/BBE) over 94.2 innings that the Padres have declined to bring him back to the big leagues up until this point in the 2022 season. Still a decently regarded prospect (45+ FV Fangraphs), Weathers has produced just a 5.0 K-BB% over 54.1 AAA innings this year, which doesn’t exactly merit the promotion. Projection systems generate an ERA and estimators around five and RHBs had a .367 wOBA (.347 xwOBA) against him last year. Add in that the hitting conditions are expected to be superior to yesterday at Wrigley and he may wish he had stayed at AAA.

For the third consecutive day this week, both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (158 wRC+, .257 ISO) and George Springer (161 wRC+, .265 ISO) project as top of the board bats against vulnerable Baltimore pitching. Tonight’s victim is Bruce Zimmermann. After correcting a self-proclaimed issue with tipping pitches, he allowed seven runs to the Royals, striking out two or fewer for the fifth time in six starts. Excellent control (4.2 BB%) still affords him a double digit K-BB% with just a 16.6 K%, but combining that with 13.5% Barrels/BBE generates a 6.44 xERA. RHBs have a .364 wOBA (.390 xwOBA) against him since last year and that’s incredibly troubling against an offense than has the ability to line up entirely right-handed.

In addition, a pair or Rockies (6.0 team total) project as top 10 bats on FanDuel, while a pair of Dodgers (5.28) also do so on DraftKings with minor differences in scoring. Connor Joe (133 wRC+, .182 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and C.J. Cron (128 wRC+, .164 ISO) take aim at Konnor Pilkington at Coors. In a starting role, he has struck out 20 of 85 batters with an impressive 13.3 SwStr%, but with problems all over the rest of his profile, including 13 walks and six barrels (11.8%). In a small sample, RHBs have a .303 wOBA, but .366 xwOBA against him. Another Coors bat, Jose Ramirez (129 wRC+, .237 ISO) is the top projected bat on the board by the way. Mookie Betts (138 wRC+, .231 ISO) and Trea Turner (175 wRC+, .276 ISO) take aim at BABIP wizard Reid Detmers (.194), whom RHBs still have a .324 wOBA and .340 xwOBA against in his career.

Top Projected Value on the Board for Less than $8K

The top projected point per dollar value on either site by PlateIQ tonight (projections are fluid and subject to change) costs less than $8K. Spencer Strider has struck out 20 of 60 batters over three starts with exactly half his contact on the ground and an 85.2 mph EV. The lone issue, as it was out of the bullpen, is control (eight walks). He was up to 92 pitches last time out with just one walk, but that still couldn’t get him through six innings. Even with the double digit walk rate, Strider still owns a 24.5 K-BB% on the season without an estimator that reaches three. The Nationals have a 98 wRC+ with just a 20 K% vs RHP, but that’s baked into the price. You’re getting 30% strikeout upside for less than $8K, which makes Strider tonight’s top projected value and probably the only arm you want to consider dipping below $8.5K on FanDuel for.

There are, however, a couple of sub-$7K SP2 options on DraftKings tonight. Josh Winckowski struck out four of 18 Orioles in his only start and major league action of the season and his career about two and a half weeks ago. He also walked three with one of his four fly balls and two barrels (18.2%) leaving the yard, while averaging a 97.4 mph EV. The 23 year-old is a marginally regarded prospect (40 FV Fangraphs), who has impressed with a 20+ K-BB% over 54.2 AAA innings since last season and has a great matchup (A’s 74 wRC+, 23.9 K% vs RHP) in a difficult park, but Weather Edge currently suggests conditions could be slightly more pitcher friendly than usual.

Roansy Contreras has struck out 23 of 86 batters over four starts, but has yet to complete six innings, even though the Pirates have allowed him to throw as many as 98 pitches. The contact profile is a bit undesirable with just a 37.5 GB% and 92 mph EV as a starter, resulting in seven barrels (12.3%) and a higher BABIP .327 with just two of them leaving the yard. It’s hard to find many complaints in a young prospect with a 3.73 xERA and no other estimator above three and a half because the strikeouts and walks are a lot stickier than the contact. If you’re rostering Contreras, it’s more on his merit than the matchup. The Cardinals own a 105 wRC+ and 19.3 K% vs RHP, while conditions are projected to be sweltering in St Louis. However, Contreras is $6.9K and may not be this cheap for much longer.