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Difficult Matchups for Tonight's Most Expensive Arms

A nine game Wednesday night slate offers two $10K pitchers on both sites with Nestor Cortes missing being the third by just $100 on DraftKings. Unfortunately, the two most expensive pitchers on the board, Shane McClanahan and Corbin Burnes, have extremely difficult matchups in New York. McClanahan costs $500 more than Burnes on DraftKings, just $200 more on FanDuel. The best way of relating how good McClanahan has been is that the Rays are allowing to go through lineups a third time regularly. He has six straight Quality Starts, facing fewer than 24 batters just once in that span and has failed to strike out at least seven batters just once this year. His 35.5 K% and 77.6 Z-Contact% both top the board among those with more than three starts. With a 30.8 K-BB%, all estimators are less than two and a half. However, the matchup (Yankees 127 wRC+ and 16.7 HR/FB at home, 118 wRC+ and 17.3 HR/FB vs LHP) is incredibly dangerous, though there may be some strikeouts (23.5% vs LHP). McClanahan is essentially in a tie for tonight’s second best pitcher projection by PlateIQ, though this is a fluid situation, which is subject to change. For more on tonight’s top of the board pitchers, including the top projected arm plus a great projected value or two, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

J.P. Crawford scratched Tuesday

J.P. Crawford scratched Tuesday

This Stack is Projected to Smash Against Pitcher with 10 Barrels Allowed Last Three Starts

It’s an interesting slate on Tuesday, favoring hitters, with half the board (14 teams) above four and a half implied runs and half of those teams (seven) with at least a 5.25 run team total, while the Cleveland Guardians separate slightly at Coors with a 6.18 run team total, nearly four-tenths of a run removed from any other offense. Current stacking projections, which are fluid and subject to change, suggest this may make Cleveland the most popular stack on DraftKings tonight (12.13%), but not too far ahead of San Diego (10.5%) with great conditions (weather, umpire) at Wrigley. The Toronto Blue Jays are the only stack that projects for double digit ownership on FanDuel right now, against the struggling Jordan Lyles, who has allowed 10 barrels over his last 14.1 innings. Although no team gets to a double digit Smash%, the Blue Jays are also the offense that smashes the slate most often in simulations.

Some of these numbers could change as weather conditions are updated and reconsidered. Something less likely to change, at least drastically, are the value projections because pricing is not going to change and the conditions at Wrigley were not a consideration when this slate was priced. Sure, Jake Cronenworth and Manny Machado cost more than $5K, but no other Padres in the projected lineup exceeds $4K on DraftKings, while the White Sox are the only double digit Value% on FanDuel against Drew Hutchison and the Detroit bullpen. With all this talk about weather conditions, it’s actually a few good offenses under normal expected conditions that really stand out in terms of ratings. Read today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out more.

Hitter Friendly Conditions Project Lots of Great Value

While top of the board bats may not necessarily come from the parks with the best hitting conditions tonight, it’s certainly the case that bats weren’t priced according to the weather we’re expecting at Wrigley tonight. To quote Kevin’s early forecast “hot, humid, winds out to left-center at 10-15 mph” and a hitter friendly umpire to cap it all off. As if Kyle Hendricks didn’t already have enough problems this season. More than half (20) of his 34 strikeouts came in just three starts. He’s struck out two or fewer in six of his last eight starts, including just one in each of his last two. A 14.8 K-BB% probably isn’t going to cut it tonight, even with a decent control (7.6 BB%) and contact management (87.7 mph EV). All estimators are within half a run of his 5.22 ERA. RHBs have been average against Hendricks since last year (.312 wOBA, .315 xwOBA), while LHBs have destroyed him (.385 wOBA, .382 xwOBA). PlateIQ projections see tremendous value in affordable San Diego LHBs on either site. In fact, Nomar Mazara (81 wRC+ vs RHP since 2021) and Eric Hosmer (108 wRC+) are the top two projected values on DraftKings and also top 10 projected values on FanDuel for $2.6K or less, though weather may not be able to do much with all the ground balls Hosmer hits. At the same cost, Trent Grisham (91 wRC+) also projects as a top DraftKings value, while RHB Jorge Alfaro (70 wRC+) projects as a top FanDuel value for the minimum ($2K). Conditions should be favorable enough to overcome these hitters’ struggles against RHP over the last couple of seasons.

The weather may not be nearly as friendly in Detroit and, in fact, it’s a pitcher friendly umpire behind the plate, but projections still like the value in visiting team bats against Drew Hutchison and the Detroit bullpen. RHBs have a .319 wOBA, but.397 xwOBA against Hutchison since last year, which is bad news against a predominantly right-handed lineup. On the other hand, the Detroit bullpen has pretty good over the last 30 days (3.12 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, 3.23 SIERA), though the White Sox won’t necessarily be seeing the front of it in the middle of the game. Adam Engel (115 wRC+, .168 ISO) and Josh Harrison (91 wRC+) are players who project as great values on both sites for $2.3K or less, while A.J. Pollock (116 wRC+, .191 ISO) costs $2.6K on FanDuel.

Top Projected Bats Not Necessarily From the Top Spots on the Board

Today’s only second full 15 game slate of the season is also one of the hitter friendliest slates of the year, as we find seven offenses at 5.25 implied runs or above, led by the Guardians (6.18) at Coors, and then seven more above a four and a half run team total. That’s half the board. The end result is that only two teams place a pair of teammates among the top 10 projected bats by PlateIQ today (although projections are fluid and subject to change). Both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (156 wRC+, .280 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and George Springer (136 wRC+, .273 ISO) are among the top 10 projected hitters for the second straight day, as they look to punish Baltimore pitching again. Over his last three starts, Jordan Lyles has wiped out much of the good will he spent his first nine starts earning (14.1 K-BB%). He’s struck out just seven of 72 batters with six walks, allowing 14 runs over 14.1 innings. Sure, there’s a .421 BABIP and 61.6 LOB%, but just two of his 10 barrels (16.9%) have left the yard over this span. He’s been getting tattooed. His best season estimator is now a 4.25 xFIP and batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. It’s difficult to find a Toronto batter who may project poorly here, but Guerrero Jr. and Springer are the cream of the crop for the offense with the sixth highest implied run line on the slate (5.41).

Aaron Judge (168 wRC+, .290 ISO) is the second best projected hitter on the slate and is joined in the top 10 by Giancarlo Stanton (136 wRC+, .254 ISO), despite the Yankees being only 10th on the board with a 4.82 run team total in Tampa Bay tonight. The Rays have been keeping Corey Kluber healthy and efficient on lower pitch counts (more than 80 just three times) and even with those restrictions, he still has Quality Starts in five of his last eight starts. Why? Because four of his nine walks came in his first start of the season. Over this eight start span, Kluber has a 21.3 K-BB% with an 86.5 mph EV and just seven barrels (6.0%) allowed. On the season, estimators range from a 3.59 SIERA to a 4.30 xERA with his 3.88 ERA right in the middle. The Rays have also maintained a strong bullpen (3.28 FIP last 30 days), despite tons of injuries, but RHBs do own a .340 wOBA and .342 xwOBA against Kluber since last year and these two monsters have been smashing just about every pitcher they’ve faced this year. It’s a bit odd that Coors and Wrigley bats aren’t dominating the projections (though Jose Ramirez is the top projected bat on the slate and Manny Machado is among the top 10), but this is a very large slate with lots of great offensive choices.

Some of the Top Projected Values on Tuesday Come from the Middle of the Board

With some higher priced pitchers potentially over-priced or pitching in difficult conditions (Coors, Wrigley), some of the best projected point per dollar values on the board, come from the middle of the board tonight. For example, the top projected point per dollar value on FanDuel costs just $7.3K. The schedule eased up for Yusei Kikuchi over the last month and the performance has improved. The biggest difference is a 15.1 K-BB% over his last five that’s much better than the 6.5 K-BB% over his first six, though he’s still allowed seven barrels (12.5%) with a 91.6 mph EV and has also retained an ERA with estimators above four. For the season, a 5.51 xERA is the only estimator not within one-third of a run of his 4.44 ERA. He also has a favorable matchup in a nearly neutral and maybe even slightly negative run environment in Toronto. The Orioles have an 89 wRC+ and 25.8 K% vs LHP this year. Kikuchi is also a top three projected value on DraftKings at exactly $8K.

Another top three point per dollar projection on both sites belongs to Dylan Cease, who exceeds $9K on FanDuel, but is just $8.8K on DraftKings. Cease has walked 14 of his last 71 batters to drive his season rate up to 12.1%, which is simply too high. In fact, he’s failed to complete five innings in four of his last six starts. He’s still striking out a ton of batters (32.7%), though lower over the last month (27%) with the same 15 SwStr%, but running his pitch counts up early. One saving grace is that only 32.9% of his contact has been at an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher, which gives him a 2.84 xERA that’s still below his 3.14 ERA, though contact neutral estimators are a bit higher (3.40 SIERA). Normally, that might scare you, but tonight, Cease is pitching in Detroit. The Tigers own board lows 67 wRC+, 6.5 BB% and 6.9 HR/FB vs RHP, along with a 24.7 K%. If the Tigers refuse to take walks, the ceiling for Cease could be sky high.

Nick Pivetta, Trevor Rogers, Tyler Mahle and Chris Bassitt are also strong projected values on either site with only Pivetta’s price tag on FanDuel exceeding $9K. He still gets hit hard on occasion. The Angels connected for three barrels in his last start, but he also struck out a season high 11 of them and has a 20.9 K-BB% with just three home runs over his last nine starts. Fenway is a difficult park to pitch in, but the A’s own a 75 wRC+ and 24.2 K% vs RHP. While Rogers has struck out more than five just once this season, his three highest strikeout totals have come over his last five starts, but even that only gets him up to a 21.7 K% over the last 30 days. With a well below average 9.8 K-BB% and a bit worse than average 8.9% Barrels/BBE, all estimators are above four and a half, even if not as high as his 5.58 ERA. He’s in a difficult spot in Philly against an offense with a 111 wRC+ and 13.7 HR/FB vs LHP, but with the Phillies also owning a 24.6 K% vs LHP, the price may be too low.

Mahle struck out a season high 10 Diamondbacks last time out and at least six in six of his last seven starts after reaching that mark just once in his first six. He also has Quality Starts in five of his last six with an 87.4 mph EV. With a 25.8 K% and just 6.6% Barrels/BBE, the biggest issue is a 10.5 BB%, but even then, all estimators are more than a run below his 5.07 ERA (63.6 LOB%). He’s facing the Diamondbacks again (93 wRC+, 25 K% vs RHP), this time in a more pitcher friendly park in Arizona. Ironically, Bassitt’s velocity has been steadily increasing, as he’s allowed 24 runs (22 earned) over his last 26 innings, including seven home runs and eight barrels (9.8%). He’s walking more batters (9.1%), while retaining an above average strikeout rate (23.1%), but with a lower swinging strike rate (9.3%). He’s also a bit unfortunate that almost every barrel has left the yard (21.9 HR/FB), while stranding just 55.9% of runners over this span. Thankfully, the HR and strand rate issues are generally correctable for someone who doesn’t have a history of such issues. The Brewers have a 102 wRC+, but 23.6 K% vs RHP and Citi Field is one of the best pitching environments on the slate.

Coming off Career Worst Start, This is Still the Top Pitcher on a Full Board

After taking more than two months for the first full 15 game slate of the season to arrive, the second one comes at us less than a week later. With 30 pitchers on the board, just two (Gerrit Cole and Max Fried) exceed $10K on both sites, while two more reach that mark on FanDuel only (Logan Gilbert and Sean Manaea). In addition, Logan Webb, Shane Bieber and Tony Gonsolin each cost more than $9K on both sites. That’s a lot of pitching to cover, so let’s start at the top. Cole is the most expensive arm on DraftKings ($10.5K) and just $100 less on FanDuel. He allowed a career high five home runs to just 17 Twins faced in his last start. All he’d done before that was strike out at least nine in six of his previous eight starts with seven Quality Starts. He’s up to a 17.7 HR/FB with 11 of his 15 barrels (8.7%) going for home runs now. Not all of his home runs in his last start were barrels (four). With an elite 24.5 K-BB% and 15.2 SwStr%, all non-FIP estimators are much lower than his 3.63 ERA with a 3.21 xERA being the only one above three. We have to treat this like a blip on the radar for now. Tampa Bay is a park upgrade with a favorable matchup (95 wRC+, 24.7 K% vs RHP). Although projections are fluid and updated throughout the day, Cole is currently the top projected pitcher on either site and top projected point per dollar value on DraftKings by a decent margin. As one might imagine, his ownership projections for a full slate are fairly impressive at this point in time. The easy and maybe even the smart thing to do may be just to plug in Cole and forget about it, but GPP players need to differentiate somewhere. Are there any strong pivots among the other high priced arms? Check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

Game Update: Padres-Cubs expected to start at 9:30 PM ET on Monday

Josiah Gray scratched Monday, Erasmo Ramirez will now start for the Nationals

Josiah Gray scratched Monday, Erasmo Ramirez will now start for the Nationals

Game Update: Braves-Nationals expected to start at 8:35 PM ET on Monday

Aristides Aquino scratched Monday

Aristides Aquino scratched Monday

Game Update: Padres-Cubs to be delayed Monday due to inclement weather

Game Update: Braves-Nationals to be delayed Monday due to rain

Top Smash and Value Projections for this Stack

On a 10 game slate, no offensive stack is currently projected to be extremely popular on DraftKings with four teams reaching a double digit Own% on, encompassing the three teams you’d expect (Blue Jays, Cardinals, Braves) with the top team run lines, but also the Diamondbacks, which will become clearer later, with very little separation between the four. Remember, projections are fluid and updated throughout the day, but the Blue Jays project for around 50% more ownership than any other stack at 15.03%, likely due to some cheaper bats in their lineup. The Blue Jays also smash the slate most often in simulations, more than 17% of the time, while the Braves (13%) are the only other team to do so more than 10% of the time. The cheap Toronto bats come into play again with the top value stack on FanDuel (16.95%), also more than 50% higher than any other stack. On DraftKings, it’s a bit closer, as Arizona stacks (10.55%) barely project for more value than Pittsburgh (10.39%) and San Diego (9.43%). All three are facing marginal lefties and in the case of Pittsburgh, one making his first major league start in Zack Thompson. Will Toronto’s strong value projections actually hurt them in terms of projected Leverage Rating on FanDuel? Check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

Where to Find the Value in Monday's Top Offenses

So you’re paying up for one of the workhorse pitchers tonight and need some value bats in your lineup. Both sites agree that a couple of those can be found in the team tied for the highest run total on the board. Since a short, two outing banishment to the bullpen, Mitch Keller has returned to the rotation to strike out 12 of 47 batters, but also walk seven with just an 8.3 SwStr%. His season body of work includes just a 9.9 K-BB% and 9.2% Barrels/BBE. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Keller since last season. Edmundo Sosa (103 wRC+ vs RHP since 2021) costs the minimum on DraftKings. Dylan Carlson (98 wRC+, .152 ISO) is $2.3K on FanDuel. Brendan Donovan (148 wRC+) is a top projected value for less than $3K on both sites.

St Louis is not the only top of the board offense with multiple to projected value bats on FanDuel, as Teoscar Hernandez (104 wRC+, .175 ISO) doubles as a top projected bat overall and top value for less than $3K against Kyle Bradish, against whom RHBs are above a .450 wOBA and xwOBA this year. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (111 wRC+, .173 ISO) is also a top projected FanDuel value for $2.5K. The top overall projected point per dollar value on FanDuel is Jordan Luplow (100 wRC+, .248 ISO vs LHP since 2021), expected to lead off against Mike Minor (RHBs .326 wOBA and xwOBA since last year) for just $2.5K. Carson Kelly (136 wRC+, .258 ISO) is the third best projected FD value. The Diamondbacks (4.62) are one of seven teams above four and a half implied runs.

In addition to Cardinals, DraftKings also projects a trio of Cubs and a pair of Padres as top 10 values, all playing at Wrigley tonight without any particular weather assistance. Jason Heyward (73 wRC+ vs RHP), costing the minimum, and Rafael Ortega (128 wRC+, .172 ISO), at just $2.3K, are the top two projected values on DraftKIngs against Yu Darvish, who has a career low 20.1 K%, though batters from either side of the plate still have a slightly below .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. . Nick Madrigal (77 wRC+) also projects as a top 10 value for the minimum. Justin Steele has just a 10 K-BB%, due to poor control (12.3 BB%), though exceptional contact management (48.6 GB%, 86.6 mph EV). He’s allowed just two barrels (1.4%) and home runs (5.0 HR/FB), though neither of those numbers seem sustainable. His 4.79 ERA does exceed all estimators (.331 BABIP, 62.7 LOB%), though only his FIP (3.35) and xERA (3.38) stretch below four. RHBs have a .337 wOBA and .325 xwOBA against him since last season with LHBs below .270. Jose Azocar (58 wRC+) costs the minimum, but projections also like Eric Hosmer (99 wRC+) for $2.6K.