DFS Alerts

Tonight's Slate Belongs to Two Offenses, But Other Stacks Project Value Too

Monday night is a very pitching heavy slate with a couple of clear top offenses at the top of the board. Early stacking projections suggest that Angels and Red Sox stacks are going to be more than twice as popular as any other on either site. No surprise, they also smash the slate in simulations around 50% more often than any other offense with the Angels a bit ahead of the Red Sox. Kris Bubic has recorded a single sixth inning out over eight starts (28 innings pitched) with a mere 4.5 K-BB% and 10.9% Barrels/BBE. It’s hard not to love any lineup he’s facing. Angels are also cheap enough, with the exception of Mike Trout, that they also project as the best value stack on FanDuel currently (although projections are fluid and update throughout the day), but aren’t too far ahead of the Tigers and Diamondbacks, two poor, but cheap offenses in marginal spots. The Tigers are the overwhelming top projected value stack on DraftKings. They aren’t good, but they are cheap in a hitter friendly park (though pitcher friendly weather), facing a spot starting rookie, who is making just his third major league start. Are Boston and Los Angeles stacks going to be too popular to lean on in GPPs tonight? Projections differ by site, but also believe there are better options on both sites. To find out more, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Where to Find the Value in Tonight's Top Lineups

Figuring out which bats you want to roster (at least for cash games) is pretty obvious tonight. The Angels and Red Sox separate quite a bit at the top of the board. The question is how you’re going to afford them because there’s a lot of great, but also a lot of expensive pitching on the board. PlateIQ projections on FanDuel (which are fluid and subject to change) suggest you can stack the top lineups with some room to spare with a few alterations. Taylor Ward (143 wRC+, .176 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is not only a top five overall projected bat, but the second best projected value on FanDuel for just $3K against Kris Bubic, who batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against since lsat season. Shohei Ohtani (134 wRC+, .306 ISO) pulls double duty as well for a reasonable $3.6K. So now you need some cheaper Angels to help offset Mike Trout ($4.2K). Projections suggest Luis Rengifo (82 wRC+) and Max Stassi (71 wRC+) for less than $2.5K. The latter has a 122 wRC+ over the last 30 days.

Projections also place five Boston bats among the top overall projections, but you are not going to be able to afford them without sacrificing in other areas. Jarren Duran (87 wRC+, .157 ISO vs RHP since 2021) pulls double duty as a top overall projected bat and value for $2.7K on FanDuel, while Xander Bogaerts (139 wRC+, .197 ISO) costs just $3.4K against Alex Faedo, whom batters from either side of the plate are between a .325 and .370 wOBA and xwOBA against. For affordability though, projections suggest substituting Franchy Cordero (57 wRC+) for one of the other three for just $2.3K.

While Rengifo and Juan Lagares (90 wRC+, .194 ISO) are also top projected values on DraftKings for less than $2.5K, projections for that site suggest you’re going to have to find most of your lineup value in other places, namely in Pittsburgh. J.T. Brubaker is actually a top projected mound value tonight, but that’s more due to cost and matchup. DK projections also suggest players can find quite a bit of value in Cubs’ bats. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .325 and .345 wOBA against Brubaker since last year, but the projected value comes from the left-hand side here. Rafael Ortega (126 wRC+, .176 ISO) is the top projected point per dollar DraftKings value tonight with Jason Heyward (68 wRC+) and Alfonso Rivas (110 wRC+) very close behind, all costing exactly the minimum ($2K).

The Detroit Tigers also project two top value bats in Robbie Grossman (90 wRC+ vs RHP since 2021) and Spencer Torkelson (72 wRC+) for less than $2.5K against rookie Josh Winckowski, who has two major league starts that have lasted eight innings, striking out just seven of 38 batters with a 90.8 mph EV, but 55.6% of his contact on the ground. He’s exceeded a 50% ground ball rate at nearly every level of play and owns a 20+ K-BB% over 54.2 AAA innings. In this very small sample, he has an extremely wide reverse split with RHBs above a .400 wOBA and LHBs just below .300. Statcast only narrows this a few points on either side too.

Positive Notes on Nearly Every Pitcher on the Board

Not only does a quarter of the available pitching cost more than $10K on FanDuel tonight, but a darn good argument can probably be made for a majority of the pitchers on the board. In fact, it’ll likely be much harder to coordinate a lineup of hitters in a way that differentiates itself enough from the rest of the field than it will be to find reasonable pitchers to roster. In fact, there are several cheaper arms among the top projected values on the board on either site, despite some higher priced arms that project fairly well. J.T. Brubaker ($7.2K) currently owns the top point per dollar projection on the board (PlateIQ projections are subject to change). He showed some upside in his rookie season (24 K%) until home runs ruined it (22.4 HR/FB). Brubaker’s still generating a similar rate of strikeouts (22.3%) with only nine of 15 barrels (7.7%) leaving the yard (12.2 HR/FB). It’s all a very average profile until you get to the walks (9.6%) with at least two in 11 of his 13 starts. While all estimators are below his 4.50 ERA (65.5 LOB%), only a 3.83 xERA is below four. Still, he’s facing a below average offense (Cubs 96 wRC+, 23.4 K% vs RHP) in a pitcher friendly home park at a low price. The one concern here is that the Cubs also have a board high 9.4 BB% vs RHP too.

Many of the other top projected values on FanDuel for less than $10K are not pitchers you’d really want to use on a one pitcher site with the exception of Lance Lynn, who would be too cheap ($7K or less on either site) if we expect him to be firing at full strength. His velocity was down about a mile and a half per hour from last season in a 2022 debut, where he struck out just four of 22 Tigers with a 10.2 SwStr%, but no walks and an 86.7 mph EV on 18 batted balls. Lynn has produced a K-BB north of 18.5% in three straight seasons, so we’ll have to see if the velocity bounces back or how it affects him if it does not. If it does in this start, he could be a top value arm despite a very dangerous matchup (Blue Jays 109 wRC+, 21.4 K% vs RHP) with hitter friendly weather conditions expected in Chicago. The good news is that this is a lineup that bats almost entirely from the right-hand side and Lynn has dominated RHBs since last season (.229 wOBA, .218 xwOBA).

Considering some lower priced SP2 options on DraftKIngs, we have Lynn at $5.8K as the top projected value on the board, but Calieb Kilian right behind him for just $5K. A tale of two completely different starts, as Kilian struck out six of 19 Cardinals with two walks in his major league debut, but then walked five of 22 Padres without a strikeout the next time out. Fangraphs gives him a 45 Future Value grade with potentially elite command, but that was before his walk rate jumped up to 8.7% at AAA this season, which was still fine with a 25.7 K% and 57.6 GB%. He’s generated more than half his major league contact on the ground (51.9%) without a barrel yet (89.1 mph EV), but now more walks than strikeouts. He’s making his third start in a great spot in Pittsburgh (83 wRC+, 25.5 K% vs RHP).

Noah Syndergaard’s velocity decline is important, but it doesn’t mean he can no longer be an effective pitcher. Consider that he’s allowed more than three runs just twice with Quality Starts in four of his 10 efforts merely by sustaining above average control (6.1 BB%) and solid contact management skills (87.5 mph EV, 47.9 GB%, 6.7% Barrels/BBE) and then realize that the strikeout rate still shows signs of eminent improvement. His 1.61 K/SwStr is the lowest on the board and comes with an above average 17.9 CStr%. A recent Fangraphs article highlighted his ability to get to two strikes, but an inability to locate his secondaries (sliders, changeups) efficiently enough to get those strikeouts. Current non-FIP estimators (6.8 HR/FB) with just a 16.4 K% range between a 4.23 DRA and 4.40 SIERA, but this seems like a correctable problem, which could increase his strikeout rate and drop his estimators closer to his 3.53 ERA, rather than the other way around. He’ll likely never be the pitcher he was, but he might be just fine. The Royals don’t strike out much (21.2%), but don’t do a lot of damage with their contact either against RHP (90 wRC+). Syndergaard should have plenty of floor for $6.4K price tag and potentially even more upside than he’s shown so far.

Additional tidbits on some mid-range pitchers include Alex Faedo striking out 17 of his last 60 batters to bring his strikeout rate up to 19.3% with an 11.1 SwStr%. A nearly 24 year-old rookie with a 40 Future Value grade (Fangraphs), Josh Winckowski profiles as a multi-inning reliever, but the Red Sox are having him spot start until they get a bit healthier. His two major league starts have lasted eight innings, striking out just seven of 38 batters and a 90.8 mph EV, but 55.6% of his contact on the ground. The good news is that he’s exceeded a 50% ground ball rate at nearly every level of play and owns a 20+ K-BB% over 54.2 AAA innings and faces the Tigers tonight (68 wRC+, 24.6 K% vs RHP). Jose Berrios has recorded five Quality Starts in his last six attempts with seventh inning outs recorded in all five of them. The strikeout rate is up to 28.6% over his last five and that includes two starts with a total of four strikeouts. The White Sox have just a 20.1 K% vs RHP, but also just an 87 wRC+. The contact profile has remained intact (57 GB%, 5.6% Barrels/BBE) with great control (6.2 BB%), but we’ve kept waiting on Logen Webb’s strikeouts to return this season and they have with a 28.1 K% over his last five starts. In fact, he’s struck out at least six in all but two starts since the end of April. Webb’s 3.44 SIERA is his only estimator above a 3.43 ERA. He’s in a tough spot in Atlanta, but certainly not without upside (101 wRC+, 25.7 K% vs RHP). Miles Mikolas threw 129 pitches in his last start, but more than 105 in four of his last six. While he has just a 20.3 K%, excellent control (4.9 BB%) and contact management (5.4% Barrels/BBE, 33.5% 95+ mph EV) allows him to pitch deeper into games and generate some useful strikeout totals. Mikolas has recorded seventh inning outs in six of his last 10 starts. Even Zach Davies has struck out 20 of his last 78 batters and will be facing the Manny Machado-less Padres. Davies did rack up those Ks against the Pirates and Reds though. As mentioned, you can find something positive to say about almost any pitcher on the board except for maybe Kris Bubic and even he’s been a bit better recently.

Early Projections Lean Heavily on Two Lineups

To illustrate how pitcher friendly Monday’s eight game slate is, the Red Sox (5.5) and Angels (5.25) are the only teams above five implied runs with only the Blue Jays (4.71) additionally above a team total of four and a half. As a result, tonight’s hitter projections (PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change) are more lopsided than maybe any other slate we’ve seen this season. Each of the top eight projected hitters come from either the Boston or Los Angeles lineups. These are the lineups you’re playing in cash games for sure. With fewer top 10 projected bats overall, the Angels still roster three of the top five, including the top projected bat on the board in Mike Trout (185 wRC+, .216 ISO vs LHP since 2021). You can hardly say that Kris Bubic is pitching well with seven runs over his last 9.2 innings, but he has struck out 11 of his last 43 batters, which constitutes nearly half of his strikeouts on the season (24). Unfortunately, the newly found strikeouts have come with an 8.1 SwStr% that suggests it’s not sustainable. His overall numbers are atrocious. Bubic has recorded a single sixth inning out over eight starts (28 innings pitched) with a mere 4.5 K-BB% and 10.9% Barrels/BBE, although he hasn’t allowed a barrel in either of these last two starts either (87.8 mph EV). Estimators are far below his 8.36 ERA, but only a 4.91 xFIP is below five. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA since last season against him. Shohei Ohtani (134 wRC+, .306 ISO) and Taylor Ward (143 wRC+, .176 ISO) are top projected bats as well and the only three in the projected lineup exceeding a 90 wRC+ vs LHP since last season. Ward is fairly cheap as well.

Tonight’s early projections include five Boston bats inside the top eight. While the seven runs Alex Faedo allowed to the White Sox last time out was the first he’s allowed more than two in any of his eight starts, he’s also struck out 17 of his last 60 batters to bring his strikeout rate up to 19.3% with an 11.1 SwStr%. Estimators are all above his 4.28 ERA (78.2 LOB%) and maxing out just below five, but a sustained increase in strikeouts would certainly make him more interesting. The forecast also calls for some pitcher friendly weather in Boston, but it’s still Fenway, while batters from either side of the plate are between a .325 and .370 wOBA and xwOBA against Faedo. Rafael Devers (163 wRC+, .324 ISO vs RHP since 2021), J.D. Martinez (141 wRC+, .229 ISO), Xander Bogaerts (139 wRC+, .197 ISO), Trevor Story (87 wRC+, .179 ISO) and Jarren Duran (87 wRC+, .157 ISO) are the perfect stack tonight with the major question being one of affordability and the potential need to sacrifice top priced pitching.

Top Strikeout Rate on the Board in a Tough Spot

An eight game Monday night slate heavily favors pitching with two pitchers exceeding $10K on both sites and another two on FanDuel alone. That’s one-quarter of the available pitching on a board lacking extremely positive run environments with decent hitting weather. The most expensive pitcher on the board with an $11.2K price tag on FanDuel, but $900 less on DraftKings, $200 behind his opponent, is Shane McClanahan, who allowed multiple homers for only the second time this year, against the Yankees last time out. Although only one was “earned”, it was also the most runs (four) scored against him in an outing this year. However, it was still his seventh straight Quality Start with a total of nine runs (five earned) over that span. McClanahan’s 35.2 K% is the best on the board. He’s struck out at least seven in 12 of 13 starts this year with all non-FIP estimators (17.5 HR/FB) below two and a half. However, the quality of opposition (NYY 118 wRC+, 9.2 BB%, 18.6 HR/FB against LHP) drops him to the second best projected pitcher on the board (PlateIQ projections are fluid and updated throughout the day), though there should be some strikeouts in the Yankee lineup (23.9 K% vs LHP). McClanahan is a top five projected point per dollar value on DraftKings as well. Find out who is the top projected pitcher on the board and the best projected value among the high priced arms in Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Mookie Betts (rib) scratched Saturday

Mookie Betts (rib) scratched Saturday

Mookie Betts scratched Friday

Mookie Betts scratched Friday

Austin Meadows scratched Friday

Austin Meadows scratched Friday

Cheap Lineup Projects as Top Value Stack Because Not All Their Bats are Bad

Even with several other teams above five implied runs and nearly half the board above four and a half, the Padres are running away with this thing, approaching a seven run team total at Coors tonight and DraftKings doesn’t even make it that hard to afford them. Naturally, they top stacking ownership projections on either site, nearing 20% on DraftKings (though the Phillies also project for double digit stack ownership) and 15% on FanDuel without any other team projecting much higher than nine percent. The Padres also smash the slate most often in simulations, around 50% above the next “smashiest” stack (Dodgers) on FanDuel. However, with the Phillies available only on DraftKings, they smash the slate just 3.5 percentage points less often than San Diego there. As mentioned, San Diego bats are under-priced on DraftKings and they are the top projected value stack, but again, with the Phillies not too far behind. The top projected value stack on FanDuel currently (PlateIQ projections are fluid and are updated throughout the day) is the Tigers. They’re a terrible hitting team, but also priced barely above the minimum, while someone like Austin Meadows is still a quality bat against RHP (132 wRC+, .245 ISO since LY), costing just $2.3K. Only one of the above mentioned teams is also currently a top rated stack and it’s not the Padres. To find out more, check out today’s PliateIQ Live Blog.

Top Projected Bat and Value at Coors

With so much expensive pitching on the board and the Padres separating themselves from the rest of the board with a near seven run team total tonight, it’s mighty convenient that DraftKings has failed to price up San Diego bats for the occasion. MVP front runner Manny Machado (133 wRC+, .224 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is priced up nearly every night, but only one other batter in this projected lineup exceeds $4.3K on DraftKings tonight. PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change) suggest you’ll either have to drop to the bottom of the order (Jose Azocar 92 wRC+ last 30 days) or forfeit the platoon advantage (Eric Hosmer 99 wRC+ vs LHP since last year) for the most value in bats costing less than $3K, but Luke Voit (103 wRC+, .116 ISO vs LHP since last season) doubles as top overall projected bat and value for just $3.8K. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against Kyle Freeland since last season.

If it’s not the Padres, projections on either site suggest a lot of value bats in the Rangers/Tigers matchup, which is ironic, considering Jon Gray and Tarik Skubal are really pitchers you should consider using tonight at their current costs. However, the Rangers have done well against LHP (114 wRC+) and RHBs do have a .321 wOBA (.347 xwOBA) against Skubal since last season, while Charlie Culberson (132 wRC+, .166 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and Leody Tavares (34 wRC+) both cost the minimum, projecting as top six values on DraftKings currently. These two likely bottom of the order plays are more akin to punts that allow you to fill out the rest of your lineup.

Projections for FanDuel suggest some value on the other side of this matchup. Jon Gray has shown recent upside, but has been inconsistent and most of what we like about him is the matchup. However, there are price tags at which Detroit bats will have some value and FD appears to have found them. Austin Meadows (132 wRC+, .245 ISO), Victor Reyes (76 wRC+) and Javier Baez (81 wRC+, .183 ISO) all cost exactly $2.3K on FanDuel. Gray doesn’t really have much of a platoon split since last year with LHBs owning a .308 wOBA and .316 xwOBA against him, while RHBs have a .323 wOBA, but .302 xwOBA.

FanDuel Players Miss Out on Some Top Projected Bats on Friday

An 11 or 12 game slate that includes Coors, but no additional outrageous weather conditions (Wrigley is off the slate), sees the San Diego Padres topping the board by a full implied run (6.81). In fact, the team with the second highest run total (Phillies 5.85) is only available on DraftKings tonight. We then go back to Coors for the Rockies (5.69) before finding three more teams between five and five and one-quarter runs. Six more exceed four and a half implied runs. Unsurprisingly, the Padres are the only offense to place multiple batters among the top 10 hitters tonight (PlateIQ). In fact, we can find three San Diego bats projected near the top of the board on either site tonight. Manny Machado (133 wRC+, .224 ISO vs LHP since LY) is the top projected bat on the board on FanDuel tonight, while Jake Cronenworth (122 wRC+, .164 ISO) and Luke Voit (103 wRC+, .116 ISO) aren’t far behind. The lack of power in Voit’s bat with the platoon advantage is surprising, but also not an incredibly large sample since last year. Kyle Freeland has struck out just eight of his last 79 batters and has just a 16.4 K% on the season, which is really the only thing that has been off average about his game this season. He’s complied Quality Starts in five of his last eight, no small feat with three of those coming at Coors, though he doesn’t have a non-FIP estimator (8.0 HR/FB) below his 4.39 ERA. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .320 and .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season.

Bryce Harper (187 wRC+, .346 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Kyle Schwarber (148 wRC+, .341 ISO) are the top two projected bats on DraftKings (not available on FD). Although they are not at home tonight, they should have some hitter friendly conditions in another hitter friend park in Washington, facing a pitcher making just his second start of the season, facing just 14 batters (53 pitches), after making 19 of his 35 appearances last year in a starting role. Paolo Espino’s work out of the pen has been fairly marginal with a 3.4 BB% lessening the cost of an 18.5 K% (8.5 SwStr%, 43.6 Z-O-Swing%), while the fact that just two of six barrels (6.5%) have left the yard (4.9 HR/FB) hasn’t hurt either. Estimators range from slightly below three (FIP) to slightly above four (DRA), but LHBs own a .313 wOBA (.325 xwOBA) against him since last year and the Washington bullpen has a major league worst 5.50 FIP over the last 30 days.

The only other offense to place multiple bats inside the top 10 projections on FanDuel is the Yankees. Aaron Judge (168 wRC+, .287 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Giancarlo Stanton (135 wRC+, .252 ISO) are regular residents of this list, more due to their own prowess than the matchup tonight. Toronto may be a small park downgrade, though both parks are near neutral run environments, but the Yankees carry a modest (for this slate) 4.75 team total tonight. Ross Stripling has been shuffled in and out of the rotation a couple of times this year. He’s yet to allow a single run over 13.2 June innings, which includes two starts. He hasn’t walked a batter either, while striking out just eight of 45 faced. He’s generated a solid 15.6 K-BB%, due to the elite control (4.7 BB%), but the main difference between this year and last is that he’s allowed just three home runs over 43 innings after allowing 23 in 101.1 IP last year even though he’s allowing barrels at similar rates (8.5% and 11.2%), so perhaps is regression time against Judge and friends. While Stripling has actually performed worse against RHBs since last year (.327 wOBA & xwOBA), Statcast pushes his .288 wOBA against LHBs up to a .337 xwOBA.

A Top Projected Value for Less Than $9K and Your Low Priced DraftKings Compliment

Not only do we currently have five pitchers reaching $10K on at least one site tonight (depending on whether Pablo Lopez actually starts or not), but there are three more in the $9K range on both sites. Robbie Ray only reaches $9K on one site (FanDuel), but is still the top projected value there and second best point per dollar value on DraftKings (although projections are fluid and subject to change). With Ray, you don’t know what you’re going to get in any given start, which certainly isn’t as good as last year’s Cy Young award winner, but probably better than when you knew you were going to get lots of walks and bombs. After a 32.7 K% over a seven start span spiked his season strikeout rate over one-quarter of the batters he faced, he’s struck out just seven of his last 50, but did just break a streak of home runs allowed in seven straight games (10) on 11 barrels (11.4%). Ironically, the overall result is pretty marginal. Combining a 16.4 K-BB% with 8.5% Barrels/BBE, estimators range from 3.81 SIERA to a 4.60 FIP. The slumping Angels have a 96 wRC+ and 24 K% vs LHP this season. It’s a high upside matchup in a great park. Ray could certainly blow up, but he could also win a GPP for someone tonight.

A sub-$9K pitcher who also projects as a top value on either site is Jon Gray and this is due to a combination of his own skills and a tremendous matchup. Gray struck out double digit batters with no more than one run in at least six innings in two of his last three starts (Rays, White Sox), but in between, he struck out just three of 26 Guardians with five runs against him and only has more than four strikeouts in two other starts this year. That said, he does have a 27.8 K% over his last six starts and is up to 26% on the season, which he’s going to need with a double digit walk rate (10%) and average contact profile (88.4 mph EV, 6.6% Barrels/BBE). Estimators are tightly grouped between a 3.63 DRA and 3.83 SIERA, more than a run below his 4.85 ERA (66.1 LOB%). More enticing, Gray is in Detroit tonight. The Tigers have a 65 wRC+, 24.9 K%, 6.3 BB% and 6.8 HR/FB vs LHP this year. Each of those are bottom two marks on the board. This may be a strong enough matchup for Gray to stand alone for $8.6K on FanDuel, but costs a mere $6.9K on DraftKings, where he projects as a top three value and a great complement to your higher priced arm, as there are no other pitchers who project similarly in his price range on DK.

Tarik Skubal costs at least $9K on both sites, but still projects as the fifth best value on either site on the other end of this matchup in Detroit. He’s about the only thing that’s working out concerning the Detroit rebuild. Although he’s allowed at least three runs in three of his last four starts, he has just a 3.60 ERA over that span because he’s completed seven innings in three of them also. Skubal has a 27.6 K% with just a 4.4 BB% and above average ground ball rate (47.3%), resulting in estimators all below three and within half a run of his 2.71 ERA. The Rangers have been productive against LHP (114 wRC+, 21.4 K%, 17.5 HR/FB), but Skubal has pitched like a $10K arm this year.

Carlos Carrasco is another pitcher in the $9K range worth looking at. He has allowed at least four runs in three of his last six starts, including his last time out, but just a total three in his other three, while also striking out at least seven in three of his last four, including his last time out. A .333 BABIP that’s 42 points above what his defense has allowed has his 3.93 ERA more than one-third of a run above all estimators next to an 18.8 K-BB%. The Marlins have been surprisingly good against RHP (113 wRC+, 21.9 K%, 14.4 HR/FB), despite running out a predominantly right-handed lineup, but Carrasco pitches in a great park and has been better than his surface numbers.

Top Priced Pitcher May Be Limited in Low Upside Matchup

A 12 game Friday night slate (11 on FanDuel without game two in Washington) offers us five $10K pitchers, though Clayton Kershaw is the only one of those on both sites with a $10.5K price tag across the board. While the question over the last half decade has often been more about health than Kershaw’s performance, his return from a month long stay on the IL was just mediocre against the Giants (4 IP – 2 R – 1 HR – 2 BB – 4 K – 18 BF). It’s a bit difficult to judge him on six starts this year because 20 of his 36 strikeouts cam in his first two starts, the driving force behind a 24.4 K-BB%. More optimistically, he does have a long history of producing similar numbers, so combined with an 87.3 mph EV and 5.9% Barrels/BBE, a bunch of estimators below three seems fine, though DRA is a lonely dissenter (3.31). The problems include a likely workload limitation well below 100 pitches (his high is 87 this season) and a Cleveland offense that doesn’t hit LHP well (88 wRC+, 6.8 HR/FB), but does make contact (19.3K%) against them. Early PlateIQ projections have Kershaw outside the top three arms on either site. With so many high priced pitchers tonight, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out which one projects best.

Luis Severino (COVID) scratched Thursday, Clarke Schmidt will start

Luis Severino (COVID) scratched Thursday, Clarke Schmidt will start

Two Stacks Projected to Smash with Great Value

On a nine game slate that still includes Coors and even better hitting weather at Wrigley than last night, projections suggest that some of those stacks are going to separate themselves from the rest of the board, especially on DraftKings, where both Coors teams and the Cubs currently project above 14% ownership with no other stack currently reaching 9.0% (although, remember that projections are fluid and updated throughout the day). All three stacks are also projected for double digit ownership on FanDuel, but closer to the pack with the Blue Jays joining the group as well. Smashing the slate most often in simulations are the Toronto and Colorado offenses, both around 15% and 50% higher than anyone else against Bruce Zimmermann and Konnor Pilkington. Ironically, these stacks are also projected for top value on FanDuel tonight with a mix of expensive and cheap bats. C.J. Cron (128 wRC+, .264 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is the only Rockie above $3.2K in the projected lineup. Toronto bats are more expensive on DraftKings with Colorado blowing the rest of the slate out of the water with a 19.15 Value% projection, a full eight points better than the next best projected value stack (Oakland). Which red hot team may be getting over-looked tonight? Find out in today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.