DFS Alerts
Sal Perez OUT against Kyle Gibson after being injured last night
Kyle Gibson continues to frustrate with a 9.8 SwStr% that only produces a 15.8 K%, but he does generally keep the ball on the ground (49%) and is facing an offense with an 82 wRC+ at home, 84 wRC+ vs RHP without one of their top hitters tonight (Sal Perez). He may be able to cover the near minimum cost in your second pitcher slot on DraftKings, though there is at least one arm with much more upside in his price range. LHBs do have a .338 wOBA against him since last season and the Royals do have two of them who are red hot. Both Hosmer (118 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP this season) and Morales (95 wRC+, .197 ISO vs RHP this season) have a wRC+ just below 200 over the last week. It really doesn’t appear to be one of the more potent daily fantasy matchups tonight though.
Other tagged players: Kendrys Morales, Kyle Gibson
Giants bats look to finally come to life in plus matchup against Jorge de la Rosa
Jorge de la Rosa is not a terrible pitcher, but he’s also not a good pitcher. He posts below average strikeouts (17.0%) and above average walks (10.2%) with just above average ground balls (48.2%). These numbers add up to a 4.88 ERA and 4.90 SIERA. This matchup would be much more appealing if the Giants weren’t ranked 26th in wOBA and 27th in ISO over the past month. But Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Eduardo Nunez, and Angel Pagan are all in play despite the recent rough stretch at Coors Field against Jorge De La Rosa. Of course it is viable to fade a cold team when they’ll be popular, but this is not a spot that should be overlooked. Posey is the top catcher on the slate by a huge margin with his elite plate discipline and .396 OBP against lefties, and Pence brings a .284 ISO and 36% hard hit rate to the table making him one of the top outfield options.
Other tagged players: Hunter Pence, Eduardo Nunez, Angel Pagan, Jorge De La Rosa
Rockies have the night's top run projection (6.1) at home vs Albert Suarez
The Rockies currently sit atop the run projections tonight at 6.1 facing Albert Suarez, who’s been a bit of a swing man in his rookie year for the Giants. He has no real platoon split so far with batters from either side right around a .330 wOBA, mostly in favorable environments, so Coors could cause him some problems. The entire lineup is playable here with Gonzalez (134 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP since 2015), Arenado (130 wRC+, .307 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Dahl (121 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP) rating as top overall bats. Raimel Tapia (106 wRC+ in 19 PAs in the majors) costs just $2.9K on DraftKings. While it’s not always been the case at home this year, tonight appears a great night to stack as many Rockies’ bats as players can fit.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Raimel Tapia, David Dahl, Albert Suarez Beltre and Beltran both have a wRC+ above 160 with an ISO above .240 vs LHP this season
Batters from either side have hit Ariel Miranda well, but the Rangers stack eight RHB against him. They have a .346 wOBA and 38.9 Hard% against the lefty. Though the Rangers are projected for just 4.4 runs and costly, there are certainly a few bats worthy of consideration here. Adrian Beltre and Carlos Beltran each have a wRC+ a bit above 160 vs LHP pitching with an ISO above .240 this season, while Jonathan Lucroy has really picked it up against southpaws since the trade and is now at a 114 wRC+ and .264 ISO for the season against them. He costs a reasonable $4.1K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Carlos Beltran, Jonathan Lucroy, Ariel Miranda Vegas has this one wrong! Load up on Brewers bats despite mediocre 3.9 implied run total
Mike Montgomery has a solid skill set with average strikeouts to right-handed batters (20.9%) and an elite 58.3% ground ball rate with a low 23.2% hard hit rate. The issue is that he has been in the bullpen most of the season. inflating these statistics just a tad, and Montgomery shouldn’t be expected to go more than five innings. With his massive ground ball rate, the first Brewers bat we want against Montgomery in tournaments is Chris Carter (.351 ISO vs LHP) whose power is immense and strikeouts out at a lower rate against left-handed pitching (25.2%). Ryan Braun (167 wRC+, .428 wOBA, .255 ISO vs LHP), Jonathan Villar (143 wRC+, .392 wOBA, .190 ISO vs LHP), Domingo Santana (150 wRC+, 403 wOBA, .214 vs LHP), and Keon Broxton (146 wRC+, .397 wOBA, .205 ISO vs LHP) can all be considered in a tournament stack.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Jonathan Villar, Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton, Mike Montgomery Ortiz sits again in NL park against ground ball machine Jarred Cosart (65.8 GB%)
Jarred Cosart has no upside in a 14.2 K%, but the issue is that he has a 65.8 GB% in 49 innings this year and has kept batters from either side on the ground on more than 60% of batted balls. The Red Sox are projected for a middling 4.6 runs in a difficult environment without David Ortiz and aren’t very cheap here. This is a matchup players could consider fading tonight.
David Price has struck out at least seven in four of last five, Padres have a 29.5 K% last seven days
David Price has struck out at least seven in four of his last five and has allowed a total of five runs over his last four starts, finally seeming to put it all together for an extended period. His 35.0 Hard% is still one of the 10 highest marks in baseball, but he’s in a great spot tonight in San Diego, facing an offense that has traded away a lot of its RH power and still strikes out about a quarter of the time vs LHP. The Padres have a 59 wRC+ over the last week with a 29.5 K%. Price has hit the $13K mark on DraftKings tonight, which may take him out of the top value spot, but he’s still one of the top two overall arms tonight and should be worth the cost with the Padres projected for a slate low 2.9 runs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Blue Jays currently own the highest implied run total (5.1) on the slate outside of Coors Field
Bryan Mitchell pitched out of the bullpen with some success in the 2015 season, but has missed most of this season with a toe injury. Mitchell has exhibited a little bit of a skill set, but there is nothing to suggest that he’s actually ready to be a starter in the big leagues. In a very limited sample size, Mitchell has been a low strikeout (15.1% K%), ground ball pitcher to right-handed batters (55.7%), with more strikeouts (24.7%) and fly balls to left-handed batters (31.3%). None of that is enough to scare us off of Blue Jays hitters, as the big three of Josh Donaldson (155 wRC+, .405 wOBA, .278 ISO vs RHP), Edwin Encarnacion (139 wRC+, .381 wOBA, .277 ISO vs RHP), and Jose Bautista (.213 ISO vs RHP) can all hit for power against ground ball pitchers, and Michael Saunders (118 wRC+, .350 wOBA, .218 ISO vs RHP) can take advantage of the platoon and the ballpark upgrade for left-handed power.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Michael Saunders, Bryan Mitchell Matt Garza has struck out 17 of last 53, but LHBs have a .367 wOBA against him since 2015
Matt Garza has struck out 17 of his last 53 batters with a 3.67 ERA over the last month, but estimators still nearly a run higher. The lean here is still towards the Cubs as batters from either side have a wOBA above .330, making hard contact over one-third of the time since last season, but LHBs have really torched him (.367 wOBA, 34.8 Hard%). Anthony Rizzo (151 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may be one of tonight’s top overall bats. He’s also only one of two bats in this lineup with a wRC+ above 100 over the last week (144). While nearly all bats project as playable in this matchup, Chris Coghlan (102 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is by far the cheapest on DraftKings ($2.7K), while Addison Russell (101 wRC+, .155 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs just $2.6K on FanDuel. Kris Bryant (146 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP career) is also a top overall bat at eligible positions, as he normally is.
Other tagged players: Matt Garza, Chris Coghlan, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell Carlos Carrasco has a 31.7 K-BB% over his last six starts.
Carlos Carrasco may be the hottest pitcher in baseball, at least from a peripheral perspective. He’s struck out 54 of his last 164 batters with just four walks (31.7 K-BB%), though with too much hard contact (36.9%). When he’s striking out that many batters and walking so few, it’s really not much of an issue, but he does face an offense with some power (14.3 HR/FB vs RHP), though they strike out 24% of the time vs RHP. Despite the high cost (more than $12K on DraftKings) and bit of risk in the hard contact rates on both sides, he may currently have the most upside on the board and has been producing near it in every start for more than a month now. The absence of Carlos Correa helps cement him as potentially tonight’s top overall daily fantasy arm. There’s no interest in Houston bats with Jose Altuve (153 wRC+, .209 ISO) the only well above average bat against RHP this year in tonight’s lineup.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve Gary Sanchez OUT of Yankees lineup tonight, Stroman has posted a 65.2% GB% and 11.8% SwStr% in his last five starts
Marcus Stroman finds himself at a playable price point on both main sites, but his upside may be considerably lower than other pitchers priced around him, as the Yankees don’t strike out as much against right-handed pitching, Yankees Stadium is much worse for pitchers than hitters, and Stroman leans more on his elite ground balls (61.1%) than on his strikeouts (19.7% K%). However, Stroman has flashed some stellar advanced stats in recent outings (2.97 SIERA, 27.7% Hard% last five starts) despite the lackluster results. He does have the ability to ramp up the strikeouts every once in a while, but overall, he is an average strikeout arm whose control and ground balls make him better in real life than in daily fantasy. The Yankees bats are out of play even for the most contrarian of stacks in tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs Andrew Cashner has a 40%+ hard hit rate in every start for the Marlins, walking 17 of last 100 batters
Andrew Cashner has walked 17 of his last 100 batters, striking out only sixteen. Meanwhile, his hard hit rate has been above 40% in every start for the Marlins. Despite the great matchup (Phillies 82 wRC+, 15.4 K-BB% vs RHP) it’s difficult to find any confidence in him at all, even with Maikel Franco out of the lineup. LHBs have a .377 wOBA and 37.9 Hard% against him since last season, though Odubel Herrera (119 wRC+, .158 ISO vs RHP this season) is your best look there. This is probably a spot players should look to avoid, despite the 3.8 run projection for the Phillies.
Other tagged players: Andrew Cashner LHBs have a .377 wOBA and 37.0 Hard% vs Doug Fister this season
Doug Fister keeps RHBs on the ground 55% of the time, but LHBs have a .377 wOBA against him this season with a 37.0 Hard% and a ground ball rate over 18 points lower. He’s in the toughest spot outside of Coors today (Cleveland has a 121 wRC+ at home). Players should look at all of the LHBs with power here, which includes Kipnis (135 wRC+, .184 ISO vs RHP since 2015), Santana (117 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and even Lindor (121 wRC+, .152 ISO vs RHP career). All three have a wRC+ of at least 140 over the last week and likely retain some value fairly high prices. Tyler Naquin (146 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP) may be the most potent bat this season, but costs $3.8K on DK ($1K less on FD) likely to his eighth spot in the order.
Other tagged players: Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Tyler Naquin, Doug Fister Strasburg returns from the DL to face the Braves in his first action in three weeks
Stephen Strasburg returns from a three week DL stint and is in a nice spot against the Braves (86 wRC+ vs RHP), but they are an improved offense (120 wRC+ last seven days) that doesn’t strike out a ton (19.2 K% vs RHP) and you’d imagine the Nationals would be cautious with him in his first start back without a rehab start. At a cost above $10K on either site, this is a matchup to consider fading entirely with too much unknown.
Harper, Murphy and Turner all have a 125+ wRC+ with an ISO above .200 vs RHP this season
Mike Foltynewicz strangely struck out just three Padres after whiffing six Giants. He’s had some decent starts over the last few weeks, but also some poor ones in mostly favorable spots. He does miss bats at a league average rate (20.2 K%, 9.9 SwStr%) and is in sort of a neutral spot tonight (Nationals 98 wRC+ at home, 96 wRC+ vs RHP), but at a cost ($7.9K on DraftKings) he may not have enough upside to exceed by much, if at all. For the Nationals, your staples are Harper (128 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP), Murphy (164 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP) and Turner (149 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP) against RHP, though none of the three are cheap. Lesser hitters vs RHP, Zimmerman (71 wRC+, .149 ISO) and Espinosa (88 wRC+, .145 ISO) are both below $3K on DraftKings. Anthony Rendon sits out tonight.
Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, Danny Espinosa, Mike Foltynewicz