DFS Alerts
Batters from either side had a 400+ wOBA against Alec Asher in seven major league starts
Alec Asher makes his first major league start after missing most of the season. He had just a 4.3 K-BB% in seven big league starts last year and a strikeout rate just above 17% in nine AA and AAA starts this season. Batters from either side pounded him for a wOBA above .400 in his short sting the majors. The three strong Washington bats against RHP this year – Harper (127 wRC+, .206 ISO), Murphy (162 wRC+, .261 ISO) and Turner (149 wRC+, .226 ISO) – project strongly, but cost a small fortune here. Anthony Rendon (113 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP this year) is a formidable and cheaper bat as well.
Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Alec Asher
Garcia has induced ground balls at a 60.1% clip versus RHB
The Cardinals are fighting for one of the two wild card spots as we come down the final stretch of the baseball season. This is good for daily fantasy purposes, as teams that are vying for a playoff spot tend to play with more focus and allow their starting pitchers to go deeper into games..This is not a factor to overlook while a lot of other teams (i.e. Milwaukee) are focusing on developing their younger players. With that said, we should expect Jaime Garcia (3.94 SIERA) to be the highest owned pitcher on this slate. The Brewers have been striking out at one of the highest clips in the league all season against left and right-handed pitching, and Garcia provides an element of safety with his elite 57.5% ground ball rate. He has also been a much better pitcher at home throughout his big league career (3.17 xFIP). Garcia has started twice against the Brewers this season, limiting them to one earned run or less in both starts while going at least eight innings. It’s a safe bet that he pitches well again tonight, though the Brewers stack has a certain intriguing appeal in tournaments given the projected ownership on Garcia.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page
Junior Guerra has an ERA a run and a half below estimators, LHBs have a 38.6 Hard%
Junior Guerra costs an above average price ($8.5K) in what may be the worst spot on the board in St Louis (104 wRC+ on the road, 109 wRC+ vs RHP, 128 wRC+ last seven days) with just an average 12.1 K-BB%, but a 2.85 ERA a run and half below his estimators due to a .250 BABIP, 78.5 LOB% and 8.3 HR/FB. He’s not terrible though, so he’s not really the pitcher players should look to attack tonight, even on a short slate. He hasn’t shown much of a split with batters from either side below a .300 wOBA, but LHBs have hit him hard 38.6% of the time with RHBs nearly 10 points less. Matt Carpenter (151 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the obvious bat worth looking into here.
Other tagged players: Junior Guerra Ivan Nova has posted an abismal 13.6% K% to LHB while allowing a 38.6% Hard%
Ivan Nova has been pitching his best baseball of the season recently, going at least six innings and allowing two runs or less in each of his last three outings. He has certainly benefited from the transition from the powerful AL East to the much weaker NL Central. Though, Nova is virtually out of play on DraftKings for an outrageous price tag of $9.8K. His strikeout rate of 18.2% is below league average, and he is surrendering a massive 35.4% hard hit rate on the season. His elite ground ball rate drops to just 47.5% against left-handed batters, and his hard hit rate is a full 6.0% higher against lefties. If considering some Reds bats, Joey Votto (163 wRC+, .419 wOBA, .239 ISO vs RHP) and Scott Schebler (.174 ISO vs RHP) are the best options here.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Scott Schebler, Ivan Nova A.J. Cole has just a 21.6 GB% through three starts, but strong matchup with Phillies (81 wRC+ vs RHP)
A.J. Cole has a 13.2 K-BB% through three starts that nearly matches his 13.9 K-BB% at AAA this season with both his walk and strikeout rates each a bit higher. He has amazingly generated just a 21.6 GB%, but with 29.4% weak contact, yet four HRs because nearly 70% of his contact has been in the air. He does have nearly as many popups (11) as ground balls (8) though. His 3.86 ERA is well below estimators above five due to a .170 BABIP and 83.3 LOB%. None of this seems all that sustainable and he did allow 16 HRs in 124 AAA innings this season, but is perhaps flyer worthy for $6.5K on FanDuel where his team might be able to get him 12 points against the Phillies, projected for just 3.6 runs with an 81 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Offensively, perhaps Andres Blanco (116 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is worth a look with a bump up the order for just $2.6K on FanDuel with SS eligibility.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Andres Blanco Cobb is still working his way back to full strength, as seen by a 7.1% SwStr% in his return
Alex Cobb was basically the ace of this Rays rotation in 2014, compiling an 11-3 record with a 2.76 ERA, a 3.23 SIERA, and a 21.9% strikeout rate that season. Unfortunately, he then fell victim to Tommy John surgery and did not pitch at all in 2015. In fact, his last start was his first major league appearance since that stellar 2014 season. The Rays will obviously not want to push him at this point, as they are out of playoff contention and Cobb is just returning from a lengthy absence. Cobb is a good pitcher that is trying to find himself again after recovering from major surgery. Cobb’s short leash takes him out of daily fantasy consideration as well, even on such an abbreviated slate. We also don’t really want any Yankee hitters here outside of maybe a contrarian tournament stack. It would seem best to avoid both sides of this matchup all together.
As reported by: FanGraphs Jung Ho Kang has a 468 wRC+ and 62.5 Hard% over the last week, Straily walked seven in his last start
Dan Straily walked seven, but allowed one run to the Cardinals in his last start. In the previous one, he was taken deep four times in a pitcher friendly park (LA AL), but still has a 3.83 ERA a run below his estimators due to a .237 BABIP and 79.5 LOB%. Leaning towards the Pittsburgh bats here against an over-priced pitcher, even on a short slate, Straily has no real platoon split via wOBA with batters from either side just a touch above .300, but RHBs (34.9 Hard%) have actually hit him much harder than LHBs (29 Hard%) since last year. Although Pittsburgh crushes RH power, the most interesting bat is the red hot Jung Ho Kang (135 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP career), who has a 468 wRC+ and 62.5 Hard% over the last week. Andrew McCutchen (125 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has been hitting the ball well (130 wRC+, 40 Hard% last seven days) and costs less than $4K on DraftKings. Lastly, Josh Bell (154 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP) has cooled down, but still has good numbers and costs right around $2.5K on either site out of the two slot.
Other tagged players: Andrew McCutchen, Josh Bell Evan Longoria has as many HRs (seven) as strikeouts against Sabathia
C.C. Sabathia struck out one Oriole in his last start after coming into the game having struck out 34 of his previous 104. One thing he has consistently done well is generate weak contact (0.4 Hard-Soft%) with the second lowest exit velocity (85.4 mph) among starting pitchers with at least 100 batted balls. Perhaps poor launch angles and a small park have resulted in 15 HRs allowed over his last 15 starts. The Rays strike out a ton (25.4% vs LHP), but are a league average offense on the road (102 wRC+) and vs LHP (98 wRC+), so $8K or more is not really an ideal price here. Then, of course, we have the BvP champions tonight and possibly the active BvP champion in Evan Longoria (135 wRC+, .219 ISO vs LHP since 2015), who has seven career HRs with 16 extra-base hits and just seven strikeouts in 84 career PAs against Sabathia. Logan Forsythe (154 wRC+, .278 ISO vs LHP since 2015) might be an even better choice. He has two HRs and six extra-base hits in just 21 PAs against Sabthia, but a 200 wRC+ over the last week. Mikie Mahtook (123 wRC+, .246 ISO vs LHP since 2015) hasn’t done much in limited opportunities this year (23 wRC+ vs LHP), but costs just $2.2K on either site and did have some success last season.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Logan Forsythe, Mikie Mahtook, CC Sabathia Welington Castillo scratched from the Diamondbacks lineup Wednesday
Castillo has been scratched for an unspecified reason. Castillo wasn’t really on our radar tonight with the Diamondbacks low implied run total and the tough RvR matchup, but Chris Herrmann will replace him and bat seventh if looking for a last minute replacement on late swap sites.
As reported by: Steve Gilbert, Diamondbacks Beat Writer Other tagged players: Chris Herrmann Kevin increases risk in Washington
Kevin has updated his forecast for the ATL WAS game and now believes that at least some sort of weather impact is a "lock" with a PPD at least a possibility. Players should have all the motivation they need to fade Strasburgh coming off the DL now and may even want to consider the risk to hitters in this game as well. Read the latest update on our Weather Page and follow Kevin on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for further updates.
Brock Stewart has struck out 18 of 80 batters, costs just $4.5K on DK vs offense projected for 3.5 runs
Brock Stewart has struck out 18 of the 80 major league batters he’s faced this year with nine walks. However, he also struck out 27.4% of the batters he faced in AAA with just a 3.1 BB%. In fact, he started the season in high A and has had a K-BB above 20% at every level he has blasted through except for the majors. He has allowed five HRs in the majors, but four in Colorado and just four in the minors this season. Stewart has struck out 15 with just four walks in his two starts outside Colorado. There appears to be some talent here and he’s in a great spot against the Diamondbacks, who lose power away from home (11.7 HR/FB, 91 wRC+) and are terrible against RHP (15.7 K-BB%, 87 wRC+) in a negative run environment tonight. His $4.5K price tag on DraftKings is way too low for a pitcher with a legitimate chance of putting up somewhere around 20 points. He’s make a great compliment to Carrasco or Price. Jake Lamb (136 wRC+, .296 ISO vs RHP this season) costs just $3K on FanDuel and A.J. Pollock (130 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs just $3.5K on DraftKings, but there’s otherwise little interest in a lineup projected for just 3.5 runs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jake Lamb, A.J. Pollock Dodgers implied run total on the decline, sitting at 4.1 runs currently
If we ignore the Coors Field start, Robbie Ray has been one of the best pitchers in the majors since the All-Star Break. Even with that Coors Field outing factored in, Ray has a 30.9% strikeout rate and 2.84 xFIP in 52 innings pitched since the break. Now he travels to a pitcher’s park to face a Dodgers squad that ranks 29th in wOBA and 28th in ISO against left-handed pitching. With most of the Dodgers top bats being left-handed, his high strikeouts and 58.1% ground balls to left-handed batters makes him a top of the line tournament option. However, the Dodgers are trotting out eight right-handed batters tonight which isn’t too concerning given the 27.2% strikeout rate Ray has posted against righties. The only areas Ray struggles slightly more with versus righties is walks (9.3%) and hard contact (37.3% Hard%).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Seth Smith leads off for Mariners against A.J. Griffin (19 HRs last 13 starts)
Safeco may still be a negative overall run environment, but the Mariners have a 16.7 HR/FB at home this season and A.J. Griffin has allowed 19 bombs over his last 13 starts. LHBs have a .385 wOBA and 43.1 Hard% against him this season. Kyle Seager (131 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Robinson Cano (139 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are top plays at their position tonight. Seager has a 237 wRC+ and 58.8 Hard% over the last week. Despite down years, players also need to look at Seth Smith (116 wRC+, .160 ISO vs RHP this season) and Adam Lind (85 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP this season), both of whom cost less than $3K on DraftKings tonight.
Other tagged players: Robinson Cano, Seth Smith, Adam Lind One game with some risk tonight in Washington in Kevin's late update
Kevin calls for a chance of rain in a couple of spots tonight with some risk late in the KC MIN game, but more significant risk in the ATL WAS affair. This should make it even easier for players to fade Strasburg in his first start back from injury, but he also hints there could be some optimism on the way for this game, so make sure to read the full report on our Weather Page and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
Taillon is a site-dependent starting pitching option tonight
Jameson Taillon has good control (3.7% BB%) and ground balls (54,1%). However, this makes him a better real life pitcher than a daily fantasy pitcher at this point in his career, but we’re still getting a bit of a discount on FanDuel with him. His low walk rate and high ground ball rate alone are worth the $7.4K price tag, and the fact that he’s able to post an average strikeout rate (20.4%) to go along with it make him tournament viable. The main problems today are a matchup with a tough Cardinals squad and the fact that there other high upside pitchers on the slate that are tough to fade for Taillon.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page