DFS Alerts
Robbie Ray shut out Mets for seven innings in his last start, but with just 4 Ks and a 57.9 Hard%
Robbie Ray shut out these Mets for seven innings in his last start, despite striking out just four with a 57.9 Hard%. He still retains a top 10 strikeout rate this season (27.5%), though downgrades to his home park in this return match, where his 36.2 Hard% (identical to his opponent) can be much more punishing. His 23.6 LD% and 16.4 HR/FB at home have led to an ERA nearly two runs higher than on the road this year. It’s still not a bad spot against a struggling Mets offense that has been poor on the road (87 wRC+) and struck out 22% of the time vs LHP. Ray is certainly still an option on a weak slate, but costs quite a bit on DraftKings ($9.6K). RHBs have a .332 wOBA and 37.8 Hard% against him since last season and the Mets are able to muster six of those tonight, but only two that can be called above average against LHP this season in Flores (196 wRC+, .342 ISO) and Walker (157 wRC+, .272 ISO). However, aside from Reyes at $3.5K on DraftKings the remaining RHBs are all under $3K on DraftKings with all four being below $2.5K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Wilmer Flores, Neil Walker, Jose Reyes
The Roth Weather Report has been updated, most concern is in Detroit and Cincinnati
The primary weather concerns come to us in the Royals-Tigers and Marlins-Reds games with delays certainly possibly. Kevin also can’t rule a potential postponement in either game. Make sure to read Kevin’s full, detailed report on our Weather Page (linked below) and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further important updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds
Nationals RHB get prime matchup versus Jorge de la Rosa at Coors Field
Jorge de la Rosa has the strange reputation for being a better pitcher at home than on the road. This technically true since de la Rosa is terrible on the road, where he is just merely bad at home. His numbers have also really lacked any sort of consistency from season to season, making his career splits at home the preferred data to analyze. Versus right-handed batters at Coors Field, de la Rosa owns a 18.1% strikeout rate, a 48.1% ground ball rate, and a 30.2% hard contact rate. This basically equates to below-average strikeouts, a mediocre batted ball profile, amd a hard contact rate that is slightly above average. However, de la Rosa has seen much more success against left-handed batters at Coors in his career, posting a 24.8% strikeout rate, 49.0% ground ball rate, and a 26.5% hard contact rate. The Nationals hitters that line up best in this matchup are right-handed batters that hit the ball in the air and make hard contact against left-handed pitching. This means that Jayson Werth (177 wRC+, .439 wOBA, .270 ISO vs LHP), Wilson Ramos (159 wRC+, .412 wOBA, .309 ISO vs LHP), Anthony Rendon (129 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .156 ISO vs LHP), Danny Espinosa (.272 ISO vs LHP), and Trea Turner are the preferred Washington bats to target.
Other tagged players: Wilson Ramos, Anthony Rendon, Danny Espinosa, Trea Turner, Jorge De La Rosa Bartolo Colon is coming off an eight strikeout performance against D'Backs, but still has the lowest SwStr% in baseball
Bartolo Colon still has the lowest SwStr rate (5.4%) by a full half point and the sixth highest hard hit rate (36.2%) in baseball even after striking out eight Diamondbacks with a 27.8 Hard%. The Diamondbacks have just two strongly above average hitters against RHP and just a team 86 wRC+ with a 16.4 K-BB%, but this is a very dangerous run environment with a pitcher who misses few bats. This is really a spot where players should limit themselves to the top four if they want any exposure at all and unless you believe Segura and Bourn can swipe a few bags, maybe just Goldschmidt (144 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Lamb (153 wRC+, .317 ISO vs RHP this season), though the latter has a -64 wRC+ over the last week and costs $5.2K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Bartolo Colon, Jake Lamb, Jean Segura, Michael Bourn Valencia has a 97.5 mph aEV vs Martin Perez on nine recorded batted balls
The A’s have just a team 95 wRC+ vs LHP, but are a bit of a stars and scrubs lineup with the top half of the lineup pulverizing LHP with each of the top three above a 150 wRC+ and .250 ISO and Khris Davis (117 wRC+, .242 ISO) not far behind. Valencia has a 97.5 mph aEV against Perez on nine recorded batted balls. While there’s some value in all of these bats in Texas against a pitcher whom RHBs have a .342 wOBA against with 12 HRs this season, it’s even more so the case on FanDuel where they are all below $3.5K. Players may consider adding Brett Eibner (126 wRC+, .244 ISO vs LHP this year) for the minimum on FanDuel.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Brett Eibner, Martin Perez Rangers currently check-in with highest non-Coors implied run total (5.7)
Ross Detwiler (5.19 SIERA) is only making his second start of the season tonight on the road against the Rangers. Detwiler only struck out right-handed batters at a 12.2% clip last season. Accompanying those low strikeout totals was a below-average ground ball rate (35.5%), an above-average line drive rate (24.1%), and a 33.3% hard contact rate. Obviously, not a great combination for a pitcher in any matchup, especially against the Rangers in Texas. Ian Desmond (145 wRC+, .396 wOBA, .202 ISO vs LHP) might be the overall play on the board tonight and is a must if stacking Rangers. The other top options for Texas are Adrian Beltre (152 wRC+, .405 wOBA, .231 ISO vs LHP), Jonathan Lucroy (.237 ISO vs LHP), and Carlos Beltran (169 wRC+, .425 wOBA, .276 ISO vs LHP). There is also some upside in Elvis Andrus, who has continued to hit left-handed pitching well, and always goes overlooked by most DFS players. Detwiler is possibly the worst starting pitcher on tonight’s slate, and the Rangers are arguably one of the top offenses in baseball. We know what to do here.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Adrian Beltre, Jonathan Lucroy, Carlos Beltran, Elvis Andrus, Ross Detwiler Royals have been disappointing, but have several strong bats vs LHP, including two with a 160+ wRC+
Daniel Norris has started just four games this season, striking out just three of 22 Mariners in his only start over the last month, but allowing just one run through five innings. He has not gone more than five innings in any of those starts with a 7.2 SwStr% that does not support his above average 23.5 K% and an 84.7 LOB% despite a .389 BABIP. The Royals are the worst road offense in baseball (15.9 K-BB%, 27.9 Hard%) and have an 18.4 K-BB% with just a 5.1 HR/FB over the last week, so it wouldn’t be a complete shock if he held his own in this outing. Four of the top five bats in the order tonight do hit LHP well, while we may be able to consider Lorenzo Cain (166 wRC+, .243 ISO) and Paulo Orlando (162 wRC+, .207 ISO) lefty mashers this season. Kendrys Morales (121 wRC+, .233 ISO vs LHP this season) has also done well from the right side of the plate. While Cheslor Cuthbert (129 wRC+, .167 ISO vs LHP this season) may have some value in the same price range on DK where all are below $4K, though he’s the highest priced of the group on FD ($3.4K).
Other tagged players: Cheslor Cuthbert, Kendrys Morales, Daniel Norris, Paulo Orlando Chad Green has a 24.4 K%, but also a 36.3 Hard% and has allowed 8 HRs in 4 starts
Chad Green’s stuff has been impressive enough a 12.2 SwStr% and 24.4 K%, though some of that’s come out of the bullpen, but he doesn’t seem to be able to put the ball where he wants it often enough with eight HRs allowed in his four starts, going more than 4.1 innings only once and walking 10 of his last 25 batters. That and a 36.3 Hard% make this a dangerous spot against an offense with a lot of power. The splits are a bit odd, but still small sample size as RHBs have just a .280 wOBA, but 38.5 Hard% and LHBs have a .469 wOBA with a 34.2 Hard%. The first three batters for Toronto are all RH and all have a wRC+ a bit above 140 and an ISO above .220 vs RHP this year. The two thumpers (Donaldson & Encarnacion) raise the ISO above .280, but Travis might be the bargain here for $3.4K on FanDuel. Three of the next four (excluding Ceciliani) are all at least average bats with an ISO above .200 vs RHP this season. The Blue Jays are projected for a high 4.8 run total tonight where their power could play a major role.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Chad Green, Devon Travis, Darrell Ceciliani Reverse line movement in favor of the Yankees suggests a high-scoring affair in the Bronx
This Yankees lineup in a serious state of flux currently. The Yankees are trying to get a good, long look at some of their bats of the future, making it difficult to properly analyze their lineup especially in a matchup against the knuckleballer, R.A. Dickey. None of the tenured Yankees hitters have good BvP numbers versus Dickey. For example, Brian McCann (.176 ISO vs RHP) has only six hits in 38 at bats. Considering none of the veteran Yankees bats have really excelled versus right-handed pitching this season, the only hitters we should consider would be Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez as low-owned tournament fliers. In fact, unless you’re stacking the Yankees in an effort to be contrarian, we should avoid this matchup entirely outside of a cheap one off batter or two.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, R.A. Dickey RHBs have a .393 wOBA, but 65 GB% and 26.1 Hard% vs Luis Perdomo
Batters from either side have a wOBA above .370, though LHBs have a hard hit rate (39.4%) more than 13 points higher, while RHBs have been kept on the ground 65% of the time they’ve hit the ball fair against Luis Perdomo this season. He’s actually exhibited some quality traits since moving into the rotation, including a 62.4 GB% against all batters and a 9.7 SwStr% that hasn’t translated into a lot of strikeouts unfortunately, and has decreased to 7.5% over the last month. He has occasionally covered a low cost and has rarely faced such strikeout prone offenses as he does tonight (24.0 K%). This might be a pitcher players can consider on two pitcher sites in order to afford some of those highly rated Washington RHBs tonight. This doesn’t preclude the use of Tampa Bay bats for players considering Perdomo too high risk tonight as he has struggled and three of the top four in the order tonight have all hit RHP very well this season with Longoria and Miller both above a 125 wRC+ and .250 IS) this season and Forsythe adding a 118 wRC+ with a .180 ISO. All have a wRC+ at 170 of above over the last week. Nick Franklin (133 wRC+, .206 ISO) has been the only other above average bat vs RHP this season, though Corey Dickerson (95 wRC+, .251 ISO) continues to show significant power.
Other tagged players: Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria, Brad Miller, Corey Dickerson, Nick Franklin Ian Kennedy costs nearly $10K on DraftKings, but has just a 14.5 K-BB% and 18.0 HR/FB on the road
Ian Kennedy has pitched better in recent road starts, but still has a much reduced 14.5 K-BB% and 18.0 HR/FB on the season on the road, which likely isn’t a profile players will want to pay nearly $10K for on FanDuel, even today, against a strong offense at home (111 wRC+) and vs RHP (104 wRC+). The Tigers do have a 4.5 run projection tonight, but it has been dropping after starting at 4.9 runs, so while this may be where we want our most offensive exposure, there are at least a few RHBs that seem appropriate for consideration as Kennedy doesn’t have a significant platoon split. Miguel Cabrera (157 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and J.D. Martinez (136 wRC+. .243 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are both capable of doing some damage as the top bats vs RHP in this lineup. Martinez, particularly, may be a bargain for $3.5K on DraftKings and $100 less on FanDuel.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kennedy Phelps has allowed one earned run or fewer in his first two starts
David Phelps has 30.2% strikeout rate on the season. While that looks and sounds great, it’s almost guaranteed we will continue to see that percentage decline due to an average 9.4% SwStr%. Phelps’ strikeout rate is inflated primarily because he had the benefit of pitching out of the Marlins bullpen for most of the season. The strikeout numbers may not necessarily be real for Phelps, but the dip in hard contact allowed may be (25.5%), considering he surrendered a 34.2% Hard% in the 2015 season. The way Phelps has been avoiding hard contact, it’s tough to really recommend attacking him with Reds bats, outside of maybe Joey Votto (162 wRC+, .419 wOBA, .236 ISO vs RHP), who is an elite hitter and be considered in nearly any matchup if price allows.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Joey Votto The Padres have a 114 wRC+, but 24.4 K% vs LHP and have traded away one of their top RH bats
The Padres still have a top five 114 wRC+ with an 18.0 HR/FB vs LHP, but also a 24.4 K% and while moving Matt Kemp was addition by subtraction in many ways, right-handed power was not one of them as he was a major supplier or such. What the Padres are left with is Wil Myers (176 wRC+, .275 ISO vs LHP this season), Yangervis Solarte (146 wRC+, .214 ISO vs LHP this season), surprisingly Christian Bethancourt (133 wRC+, .185 ISO vs LHP this season) and a collection of bats that have otherwise improved their standing vs RHP that won’t help them much here. In fact, the Padres were nearly shut out by an equally talented and erratic pitcher with a very different batted ball profile yesterday (Steven Matz). Drew Smyly has been inconsistent, but his 17.2 K-BB% is still 21st best in baseball and he may have the most upside of any pitcher outside of Coors tonight, facing an offense that still retains a fair amount of strikeouts vs LHP. His 12.8 HR/FB and 30.4 Hard% aren’t really any worse than average, but it’s the frequency of the fly balls (47.6%) that often gets him in trouble when he doesn’t miss as many bats. He’s a sizable favorite tonight and top pitching option on either site for $9K or less on a difficult slate. The Padres are one of two teams projected for 3.5 or fewer runs tonight with everyone else around or above four.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Wil Myers, Christian Bethancourt, Yangervis Solarte Despite the loss of Stanton, Marlins retain to strong bats (Prado & Ozuna) vs LHP
The Marlins may be quite a bit more pleasant for a LHP without Giancarlo Stanton for the rest of the season, Brandon Finnegan still has the second highest walk (11.7%) and hard hit (38.3%) rates among qualified pitchers making that thought much less appealing. RHBs have a .334 wOBA against him since last season with that same 38 Hard%, while the Marlins retain two strong RHBs against LHP in this lineup. One without power in Prado (158 wRC+, .138 ISO vs LHP since last season), but with 145 wRC+ and 40.9 Hard% over the last week and one with power in Ozuna (157 wRC+, .251 ISO vs LHP since 2015), but currently slumping (14 wRC+ over the last week). However, Ozuna costs $700 less than Prado and is under $4K on DraftKings, which has to make him a strong value play there, while both may add something beyond a price tag $500 cheaper than that on FanDuel. You may wonder why Ichiro is hitting sixth against a LHP and we can only guess it’s his 112 wRC+ against them since 2015, though with absolutely no power. J.T. Realmuto has just an 85 wRC+ vs LHP since last season and even worse this year with very little power.
Other tagged players: Martin Prado, Ichiro Suzuki, Brandon Finnegan Buster Posey Scratched
Analysis coming soon.
