DFS Alerts
Kluber checks in as the top starting pitcher on the slate
Corey Kluber may not have the best raw strikeout ability among the pitching options on this slate (25.2%), but a home matchup with this weak White Sox offense more than makes up the difference. Kluber draws easiest matchup of the top tier pitchers as the White Sox rank 23rd in team wOBA and 24th in ISO versus right-handed pitching. He has seen his strikeout rate decline a bit from previous seasons but still owns a 12.2% SwStr% which falls in the ballpark of what we would expect from Kluber. He also has at least seven strikeouts in nine of his last 11 starts and has only surrendered eight earned runs combined in his previous six outings. Kluber is a big favorite, usually consistent, and has a plethora of upside making him the top pitching option in all formats.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds
Christian Yelich (151 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP) faces a righty who's struggled with LHBs (.350 wOBA since 2015)
Anthony DeSclafani has an 80.6 LOB% that has kept his 3.11 ERA about a run lower than his league average estimators and perhaps leaves him a bit over-priced if not accurately at $8K. LHBs have hit him well though, with a .350 wOBA and 32.6 Hard% since last season, giving us two potentially strong values in the Miami lineup tonight. Christian Yelich (151 wRC+, .212 ISO vs LHP this season) costs just $3K on FanDuel, while Derek Dietrich (131 wRC+, .181 ISO vs RHP since 2015) bats fifth and may be a bargain on both sites for $3.4K on DraftKings and $1K less on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Derek Dietrich, Anthony DeSclafani
Miguel Cabrera out of the lineup Tuesday, Duffy rising the ranks of tonight's SP options
Danny Duffy has allowed three earned runs or less in every start since May, with the exception of one poor outing, and has recorded a minimum of six strikeouts in 11 if his last 14 starts. Duffy has also been able to pitch at least eight innings in four of his last nine outings, showing he has the ability to go deep into games which raises his floor significantly. His 28.1% strikeout rate is the second-highest on the slate and has only walked 5.1% of the batters he’s faced this season. This Detroit team typically has a plethora of quality right-handed bats but will be without Miguel Cabrera tonight and three other starting position players. This only increases the ceiling of Duffy in this spot as the Tigers are only a mediocre offense against left-handed pitching when they are fully healthy (103 wRC+, .328 wOBA), let alone this depleted, watered-down lineup being rolled out tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera Dodgers homered three times against Velasquez in his last start
Vince Velasquez just struck out six of 26 Dodgers in his last start on the road, but they also crushed three HRs and put nine runs on the board against him as he failed to go more than five innings for the second straight start. Despite the 26.6 K% this season, it’s only been a bit above average since the break and his dirty little secret is that he’s only fanned more than seven twice this year. However, he hasn’t struck out fewer than five in any of his seven starts since returning from injury, so there’s at least been some consistency. The Dodgers have the second best offense in baseball since the break (114 wRC+ with a .181 ISO and 14.2 HR/FB), but they’re also striking out a bit more (22.1%). While he’s not a bad mound choice for a reasonable $8K on either site, there may be better choices in that range and the Dodgers have several bats that project well. Velasquez has almost no platoon split, but batters from either side have been right around a .320 wOBA in his short career. The Dodgers have three bats with a wRC+ a bit above 140 with an ISO above .230 against RHP this season: Seager, Pederson, and Turner. Pederson leads the team with a .280 ISO vs RHP this season. Yasmani Grandal (117 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP this season) is actually second in the power department and a viable, but not very cheap Catcher.
Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Yasmani Grandal, Joc Pederson Pineda has the 5th best SwStr in baseball (14%) and Toronto has a 23 K% vs RHP
Michael Pineda allowed just two runs to the Red Sox over six innings in his last start, but tied a season low with just three strikeouts. His 7.9 SwStr% was only his sixth time in single digits all season and he’s now gone at least six innings in 10 of his last 12 starts. His 20.1 K-BB% is eighth best in baseball, his 14.0 SwStr% is even better (fifth). Toronto has power (15.3 HR/FB), but were completely shut down by another high strikeout, HR pitcher last night and do strike out 23% of the time vs RHP. It’s not an overall terrible spot as the second half of the lineup has quite a few below average bats against RHP this year. While Pineda carries some risk, he’s also the most upside you’re generally going to see for around $8K. The big Toronto bats project just fine, but not exceptionally well with just a 4.3 run projection and some high price tags. Michael Saunders (116 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP this season) might be the exception for $3.6K on DraftKings with that short RF wall, but he has just an 11 wRC+ over the last week and Pineda has virtually no platoon split since last season. In fact, 11 of his 16 HRs at Yankee Stadium have been served up to RHBs. Encarnacion and Donaldson have a combined one HR and no other extra-base hits against Pineda in 40 combined PAs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders Eduardo Rodriguez has a 22.4 K% over the last month and the O's have just an 82 wRC+ vs LHP
Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched well over the last month, but an 85.6 LOB% probably over-states his 2.80 ERA with estimators just above four, but that’s about league average in the AL East and his strikeout (22.4%) and swinging strike (11.1%) rates are both up. DraftKings players could consider using him for just $5.7K against an offense that has struggled vs LHP (82 wRC+) with below average power (11.3 HR/FB). Vegas projects them for 4.9 runs, but that may be more based on overall reputation and a positive run environment more than actual results. RHBs have 12 of Rodriguez’s 13 HR’s allowed with a .358 wOBA against him this season, so he has to beware of Manny Machado (143 wRC+, .209 ISO vs LHP this season) and Steve Pearce (200 wRC+, .276 ISO vs LHP this season). The latter costs just $2.7K on FanDuel. Mark Trumbo has been all or nothing vs LHP this year with a .276 ISO, but just a 75 wRC+. No other RHB in this lineup has been above average vs LHP.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Steve Pearce, Mark Trumbo Edwin Jackson has a minuscule 1.2% K-BB% versus LHB
The Rays are the next team up to get a shot at bringing Edwin Jackson and his improbable stretch back to Earth. Jackson has remarkably pitched two near no-hitters in his first five starts this season after not making a major league in nearly two years. His advanced stats, primarily against left-handed batters, prove that this almost entirely a fluke. Jackson has posted a 13.4% strikeout rate, 12.2% walk rate, and 5.53 xFIP to left-handed batters, but is getting bailed out by a .267 BABIP and 4.5% HR/FB rate. At some point, we would have to expect this madness to end and it may be tonight in a matchup with a powerful Rays lineup. Brad Miller (130 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .268 ISO vs RHP) and Evan Longoria (137 wRC+, .369 wOBA, .253 ISO vs RHP) are the primary bats we would want to target in this matchup. Kevin Kiermaier (.186 ISO vs RHP) has received a bump up to the two-hole recently and is a perfect stack filler batting between Logan Forsythe (.188 ISO vs RHP) and Longoria.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Evan Longoria, Kevin Kiermaier, Logan Forsythe, Edwin Jackson Betts bats cleanup, Ramirez OUT as Red Sox look to pummel Gallardo
Yovani Gallardo has an ERA with estimators above five with a below average strikeout rate. He doesn’t even generate ground balls anymore with his lowest rate (40.6%) since his rookie season. Though not the highest total on the slate, the Red Sox are projected for a hefty 5.1 runs. LHBs have a wOBA 23 points higher against Gallardo since last season and he’s still only allowed a total of 25 HRs since the start of last season, but this is a balanced lineup that hits RHP well throughout. David Ortiz (168 wRC+, .340 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is going to be the top dog vs RHP and probably worth his high price as one of the top projected batters from the BAT tonight. Mookie Betts (129 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs slightly more and may lose an AB with a three slot drop in the order, but gain in RBI opportunities. Both have a wRC+ above 200 over the last week. Sandy Leon (148 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP this season) is the hottest bat in the lineup (329 wRC+, 50 Hard% last seven days) and may be one of the top Catching options tonight even with a poor lineup spot. There’s really not a bad spot in this lineup with only Aaron Hill below average vs RHP this season.
As reported by: The BAT Projections Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Sandy Leon, Aaron Hill, Yovani Gallardo Kenta Maeda has struggled recently, but faces the worst home offense in baseball (68 wRC+)
Kenta Maeda has struck out five or fewer in each of his last five starts, reaching six innings only once, but has pitched in Colorado, Arizona, and St Louis over that span. He has maintained a league average strikeout rate over that span and his 18.1 K-BB% on the season is 16th best in baseball. He’s allowed just 25% hard contact in each of his last two starts. Though he struggled a bit with the Phillies at home in his last start, Philadelphia is still one of the top spots in baseball for a RHP. The Phillies have just a 77 wRC+ and 22.6 K% overall since the break. They are still the worst home offense in baseball (68 wRC+, 16.0 K-BB%, 23.6 Hard%). Maeda isn’t cheap, but he’s a good pitcher, who should be able to cover around $9K here more often than not, especially at his lower price point on FanDuel as a sizable favorite. A couple of hot LHBs, who may be worth looking at for less than $3K on FanDuel are Odubel Herrera (120 wRC+, .148 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and even Ryan Howard (103 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who still has some pop with a 165 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week. LHBs have just a .292 wOBA, but 33.9 Hard% against Maeda.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Odubel Herrera, Ryan Howard The Royals are projected for a slate low 3.2 runs against Verlander ($12.9K on DraftKings)
Justin Verlander has been pitching like an All-Star, allowing two or fewer runs in eight straight starts with at least seven innings in five of them, but has an 89.9 LOB% over his last five starts and carries the price tag of a Cy Young winner on DraftKings ($12.9K). It’s tough to question him as a top five pitcher tonight with a 26.3 K% on the season and 28.8% over the last month against a low powered offense with a 79 wRC+ on the road and 85 wRC+ vs RHP, but they only strike out and average rate, so players should probably gain their exposure more through FanDuel, though he’s just a small favorite (currently -133) because he’s facing the second highest priced pitcher on the slate (according to DraftKings). The Royals are projected for a slate low 3.2 runs, so there’s no interest in their bats, but he’s going to need more than 30 points blow past his DK cost.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Several players out of Reds lineup that has Renda leading off, Suarez cleanup against Urena
Jose Urena has an ERA near six with estimators only about a run lower with a 6.0 K-BB% through 98 major league innings. Batters from either side have a wOBA above .340 against him, though he allows just an average rate of hard contact around 30%. It’s really walks and strikeouts that give most opposing batters an edge and that’s where Joey Votto (166 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP since 2015) thrives, while adding a good amount of power from the left side. He’s one of the top projected batters from the BAT tonight and should have a fairly decent floor here. Unfortunately, the Reds don’t have another above average bat vs RHP in the lineup today, though there are several cheap ones. Tony Renda, now in the leadoff spot, costs the minimum on FanDuel, but has a -36 wRC+ through his first 14 major league PAs. Scott Schebler has just a 76 wRC+ vs RHP since last season, but adds a .203 ISO, which may give him some value as a GPP option for less than $3K on either site. Tucker Barnhart (92 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) has a 140 wRC+ over the last week and could serve as a punt catcher on FanDuel ($2.3K).
As reported by: The BAT Projections Other tagged players: Tony Renda, Scott Schebler, Tucker Barnhart, Jose Urena The Pirates have a 10 BB% vs LHP and Matt Moore has walked 11 of last 52 batters
Matt Moore faces an offense with an 87 wRC+ on the road and strikes out 23.4% of the time vs LHP in his first start at home for the Giants, but it’s also a fairly competent lineup vs LHP (115 wRC+, 10.0 BB%). Moore has allowed RHBs a .331 wOBA and 32 Hard% since last season and has walked 11 of the first 52 batters he’s faced for his new team. He may be a bit over-priced in this spot at $8.8K on either site. On the other hand, the Pirates do have a low 3.5 run projection without any stand out bats in an extremely negative run environment. Walks don’t generate a ton of fantasy points on their own.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds BvP supporters unite behind Mike Trout (6 HRs, 103 mph aEV) vs Felix Hernandez
Felix Hernandez is not the pitcher he once was. That’s pretty clear with a career low 9.7 K-BB%, but he has retained an ability to stifle contact (27.3 Hard%) with a 53.2 GB% that may not make him as usable at a high cost, but may prevent us from using bats against him in negative run environments, such as is the case in Los Angeles tonight. The Angels have a team 107 wRC+ and strike out a league low 15.6% vs RHP, perhaps further limiting Felix’s upside. As is often the case when these teams have met recently, this may be a good matchup to fade except for one spot. Mike Trout (172 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has some numbers against Felix Hernandez that can’t be ignored, essentially because they’re just as good as his numbers against every other pitcher. In 82 career plate appearances, he has six HRs and 12 extra-base hits. There have been 13 batted balls recorded by Statcast in this matchup since the start of last season with a stunning 103 mph aEV.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Felix Hernandez Play Scherzer in Coors, or not to play Scherzer in Coors? That is the question.
Let’s be honest, there’s a good chance that Max Scherzer finishes tonight as the highest-scoring starting pitcher. A lot of DFS players will just automatically write Scherzer off as an option just due to the “Coors Factor”. This could be a mistake as Coors doesn’t completely outweigh the strikeout upside for Scherzer in this matchup. While Scherzer does allow a lot of fly balls (48.0%) causing him to fall victim to the home run ball occasionally. We shouldn’t be too concerned by this assuming Scherzer is able to limit base runners and avoid big innings like he normally does. There’s still obviously more risk than normal in rostering Scherzer at Coors Field tonight, but he is definitely the preferred target in tournaments over Rockies bats if you were only making one lineup, per say.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Nolasco has a reverse split (.363 wOBA vs RHBs since 2015), making Cruz (137 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP) top Seattle bat
Ricky Nolasco has a reverse platoon split with RHBs owning a .363 wOBA and 35 Hard% against him since last season. making Nelson Cruz (137 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP since 2015) the top play in this lineup. LHBs have a .320 wOBA and 32.6 Hard% against him since last season too, which doesn’t take them out of play, though in a negative run environment, perhaps it’s best to just stick to the really strong bats against RHP. That would be Seager (162 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP this season) and Cano (157 wRC+, .275 ISO vs RHP this season).
Other tagged players: Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano, Ricky Nolasco