DFS Alerts
Start of tonight's KC/TEX game to be delayed due to rain
The Royals-Rangers game is currently in a rain delay. New start time is still TBD. We will continue to monitor any updates if they become available before the game locks on late-swap sites.
As reported by: Texas Rangers Official Twitter Feed
David Price has struck out just five in last two starts and faces the team with the lowest strikeout rate in baseball
David Price has been very up and down lately, following three straight starts with 10 Ks each with a total five in his last two outings. He faces the Angels with the lowest strikeout rate in baseball tonight (15.6% vs LHP), but it’s in a pitcher’s park and he still has an elite 20.1 K-BB% on the season, so he is an option even if he’s not the top one. This is not a great spot for hitters, but Mike Trout (170 wRC+, .246 ISO vs LHP this season) is still the top bat here, though he’s struck out in nine of 19 career PAs against Price without an extra-base hit. Yunel Escobar (161 wRC+, .190 ISO vs LHP this season) has a 174 wRC+ over the last week and costs just $2.9K on FanDuel at a tough 3B position tonight.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Yunel Escobar
Johnny Cueto has allowed just two HRs at home and pitched into the seventh in 14 of 20 starts
Johnny Cueto is having another strong season, slightly aided by his terrific new home park where he’s only allowed two HRs this season. His strikeout rate is up significantly over the last month (27.8%), but his SwStr rate is not (9.6%). There’s some concern in depending on batted ball outcomes when paying up, but Cueto does have 22.7 K% that’s a bit above average and has only failed to pitch into the seventh six times this season (though three of those have come in his last five starts). The Nationals have just a 93 wRC+ vs RHP as well, so this is a fairly strong spot for him. Whether players choose to utilize or fade him, Washington bats should probably not be on the menu at current prices. While Daniel Murphy (172 wRC+, .270 ISO vs RHP this season) continues to pound the ball (211 wRC+ last seven days), he’s fairly expensive in a difficult spot and Bryce Harper (126 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP this season) is not too much cheaper and in the midst of a horrific slump (-53 wRC+ last seven days).
Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper Red Sox own the highest implied run total on the slate (5.4)
It’s not news to anyone in saying that Jered Weaver (5.52 SIERA) is not a good pitcher anymore. His strikeout rate to right-handed batters is only 11.5%, but his strikeout rate to righties is not much better at 13.5%. Weaver is also an extreme fly ball pitcher (49.2% FB%) which he can often get away with in his home park. The best spots to attack in this matchup are either a full stack or to pick and choose Boston power righties. Weaver only induces a 25.9% GB% to right-handed batters while surrendering a massive 38.2% hard contact rate. Reading between the lines, this basically means that when righties make contact it will be in the air and hit hard the majority of the time. Mookie Betts (137 wRC+, .383 wOBA, .234 ISO vs RHP) and Hanley Ramirez are the elite options in this matchup and would be a nice way to differentiate Red Sox stacks. David Ortiz (189 wRC+, .459 wOBA, .381 ISO vs RHP) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (152 wRC+, .406 wOBA, .283 ISO vs RHP) are obviously good plays but will be higher owned with the platoon advantage against Weaver.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Hanley Ramirez, David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley, Jered Weaver Joe Panik returns to Giants lineup at home vs Tanner Roark
Tanner Roark has a 3.05 ERA about a run below his estimators due to just over 10% of his runs being unearned. He was dominating at the point of contact earlier in the season with his rate of weak contact above 30% in each of the first two months of the season, but below 10% in July. That said, his hit hard rate is still just 27.7% this month and that constitutes his highest rate in any month this season. San Francisco certainly isn’t going to hurt those numbers as it’s one of the most negative run scoring environments in baseball. This may be a good spot to fade with the possible exception of Brandon Belt, who’s $3K cost seems too low for his output (137 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP and a 153 wRC+ at home since 2015), even batting sixth. Brandon Crawford (117 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP and a 121 wRC+ at home since 2015) costs just $2.5K on FanDuel. Joe Panik (130 wRC+, .164 ISO vs RHP since 2015) returns to bat third, but is the highest priced SF bat on DraftKings ($4.1K).
Other tagged players: Brandon Crawford, Joe Panik, Tanner Roark Kevin's Weather report now anticipating lower wind speeds in Chicago
Check out the link below for a full weather breakdown for tonight’s slate.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page
Salvador Perez scratched Thursday, Drew Butera now catching and batting 8th
This news improves the outlook for Cole Hamels more than anything else. Butera will now catch and bat 8th, with Paulo Orlando jumping up to 5th in the order.
As reported by: Stefan Stevenson Other tagged players: Drew Butera Several areas have the potential for at least some rain with one real area of concern tonight
Kevin is calling for the possibility of some rain in nearly half of tonight’s seven game slate with Philadelphia Atlanta and Kansas City Texas at least worth watching, but they are graded YELLOW with the majority of the concern in Chicago for the White Sox and Cubs. The risk level not as clear at the moment. It’s currently YELLOW/ORANGE, which may be an issue for players high on Sale or Lackey tonight, but you can read the full report on our Weather Page (linked below) and follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
The Royals have four batters with a 120+ wRC+ vs LHP, three with a .200+ ISO also
Cole Hamels has a career high 83.2 LOB% that’s kept his 2.87 ERA well below his SIERA (4.16), xFIP (4.10) and FIP (4.27). In additiona, he’s been incredibly inconsistent from start to start in terms of strikeouts (four or less in three of his last four starts), walks (at least three in three of his last four starts) and HRs (11 of his 16 over a seven game stretch in May and June). There are enough strong pitchers on the mound tonight that he should be an easy enough fade at a high cost and the Royals striking out just 17.7% vs LHP. He’s not someone we’d normally think about attacking either, but the Royals have four RHPs with a wRC+ above 120 against LHP this season, all costing $3.6K or less on either site with three of them carrying an ISO above .200 vs southpaws as well. Those are Kendrys Morales (129 wRC+, .239 ISO), Cheslor Cuthbert (124 wRC+, .214 ISO), Paulo Orlando (121 wRC+, .091 ISO) and Brett Eibner (156 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP), who bats eighth, but costs the minimum on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Cheslor Cuthbert, Paulo Orlando, Brett Eibner, Cole Hamels Rangers check-in with the second-highest implied run total on the slate (5.1)
Yordano Ventura hasn’t put together the most ideal pitching profile this season, posting below-average strikeouts (17.2% K%), slightly above-average ground balls (48.5% GB%), and above-average hard contact (31.5% Hard%). Ventura has exhibited the ability to put together some solid performances so this could be a tough spot to try and pick out specific Rangers batters in hopes they have a huge game individually. There’s also not really any individual matchups that jump off the page making the Rangers offense a stack or fade scenario. As much as Ventura has the ability to post a solid outing, he has the same tendency to be wild and get shelled. This further emphasizes the need to stack or fade the Rangers since it so difficult to predict which hitters will come through against Ventura. Ian Desmond (115 wRC+, .353 wOBA, .214 ISO vs RHP) and Nomar Mazara (113 wRC+, .349 wOBA, .171 ISO vs RHP) are the batters we should jam into any Texas stack as they are the top hitters in the Rangers lineup and bat in the heart of the order. Joey Gallo was recently called up and homered in his season debut giving him nice upside for an inexpensive price tag on both sites.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo John Lackey has allowed 10 HRs and a lot of hard contact recently, but costs just $8.6K against the DH-less White Sox
HRs have been a major issue for John Lackey with 10 of them over his last seven starts and a 40.2 Hard% over his last six. The strikeout rate is down over the last month (22.5%), but it’s still above average and the highest rate of his career (25.3%). He’s in a good spot tonight with a great defense behind him though. The White Sox are a poor offense on the road (86 wRC) and vs RHP (also an 86 wRC+) with more strikeouts and less power than the average team. They additionally lose their DH tonight, which means Justin Morneau, who is a LHB and LHBs have a .315 wOBA and 31.7 Hard% against Lackey since last season. One of the reasons Lackey looks like a nice option on FanDuel for $8.6K if players want more room for offense is because no opposing LHB tonight has a wRC+ 110 or ISO above .150 vs RHP this year. The White Sox have the second lowest run projection tonight (3.06). Adam Eaton (105 wRC+, .146 ISO vs RHP this season) is still a bat to look at for less than $4K on either site. He’s the hottest bat in the lineup too with a 188 wRC+ over the last week. Melky Cabrera (107 wRC+, .148 ISO vs RHP this season) has a 45.5 Hard% over the last week with a similar cost and actually a few hundred less on FanDuel.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera Orioles have a 72 wRC+, .286 wOBA, .132 ISO as a team over the past week
Kyle Gibson has posted a strikeout rate to right-handed batters that is just slightly below average (17.9%), but he does a fantastic job keeping the ball on the ground (55.1% GB%) and only surrenders a hard contact rate of 24.1% to them. Gibson is also not terrible against left-handed batters. He has a lower 15.3% K% to lefties but still manages to maintain a 50.0% GB% and 28.7% hard hit rate. There is a substantial amount of risk rostering Gibson in this matchup as the Orioles are a boom-or-bust offense so we should limit our exposure to strictly tournaments. As far as the Orioles, we can target Chris Davis (.243 ISO vs RHP) and Pedro Alvarez (.254 ISO vs RHP) as they hit ground ball pitchers well and have the platoon advantage. Hyun-Soo Kim (147 wRC+, .395 wOBA vs RHP) is also in consideration given his lineup spot. We should generally avoid the Orioles righties in this matchup, but Manny Machado (140 wRC+, .385 wOBA, .249 ISO vs RHP) is almost always a viable option.
Other tagged players: Chris Davis, Pedro Alvarez, Hyun-Soo Kim, Manny Machado Ubaldo Jimenez is an arm to target tonight and Max Kepler has a career .281 ISO vs RHP
Ubaldo Jimenez is one of just a couple of pitchers players might really want to unload on tonight. Both right and left-handed batters have a wOBA just above .340 against him since last season, though only LHBs can credit most of that to hard contact (32.1%), while RHBs (26.5 Hard%) have been kept on the ground a bit more than half the time on contact and succeeded more on plate discipline against him. Especially with Miguel Sano out of the lineup tonight, we’re going to want to focus on the LH bats here and probably all of them. Max Kepler (110 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP career) should probably be getting more attention at this point and still costs a reasonable $3.2K on FanDuel, as does Robbie Grossman (106 wRC+ vs RHP this season). Juan Centeno (106 wRC+, .176 ISO vs RHP this season) has a 221 wRC+ over the last week and looks like a reasonable punt Catcher for $3.1K or less on an incredibly weak board at the position tonight.
Other tagged players: Ubaldo Jimenez, Robbie Grossman, Juan Centeno Matt Wisler has a 12.3 SwStr% last 30 days, but has allowed six HRs over his last three starts
Matt Wisler has impressed with his SwStr rate over the last month (12.3%), though it has only translated to a 21.3 K% and he has allowed a ton of hard contact this season (37.3%) with six HRs over his last three starts. He does have a great matchup at home tonight against an offense with an 81 wRC+ and 15.0 K-BB% vs RHP though, so he could be interesting as a secondary option on DraftKings for just $5.6K. However, LHBs have a career .379 wOBA against him and this might also be the type of pitcher players want to target if they are paying up for pitching. Odubel Herrera is not low priced at all, but is the top bat in this lineup (128 wRC+, .169 ISO vs RHP this season). Cesar Hernandez (90 wRC+ vs RHP) is just $2.8K on FanDuel and has responded well to the recent lineup bump with a 150 wRC+ and 47.8 Hard% over the last week. Aaron Altherr makes a surprising return to the Philadelphia lineup. He is a RHB, but had a 154 wRC+ and .287 ISO vs RHP last season and costs the minimum on FanDuel. The Phillies are actually in rarefied air, finding themselves in the top half of the run projections tonight (4.1).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Cesar Hernandez, Aaron Altherr, Matt Wisler Sale returns to the mound tonight, looks to "tear" through this Cubs lineup
Chris Sale is a tournament option as a lot of players will gravitate to different pitchers in the upper tier given the tough matchup Sale draws against the Cubs. The “Sale is pitching to more contact narrative” has also started to become common knowledge to the general masses. While this is generally true, this is still Chris Sale and he still has a ace-level strikeout rate (24.5% K%). Sale strikes out right-handed batters at a 23.4% clip, which is not an ideal situation for targeting hitters. He also only induces a ground ball rate of 38.9%, while allowing a 23.2% line drive rate, and a 31.6% Hard% to righties. Clearly, none of these stats make the Cubs righties ideal targets on this slate, but it also presents opportunity to get some of these bats at extremely low ownership. Kris Bryant (169 wRC+, .425 wOBA, .327 ISO vs LHP) and Javier Baez (181 wRC+, .443 wOBA, .233 ISO vs LHP) have the power to able to score points on their own which is key in targeting bats against Sale as he is unlikely to get rocked.
Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez