DFS Alerts
Rangers implied run total on the decline, currently sits at 4.8 runs
The Rangers have a decent projected run total and fit together very nicely as a stacking option, but they get a very bland matchup against Edinson Volquez at home. Volquez is prone to blowups here and there, but is unlikely to surrender a lot of home runs given his ground ball pitching style (54.3% GB%). Volquez has pitched well more often than not this season, but he does get a park downgrade pitching at Arlington that may not fit well with his below-average strikeout rate (17.5%) and above-average walks (8.7% BB%). The pitching profile of Volquez makes it difficult to pick and choose bats hoping for a one off home run, which is why the Rangers offense will be better utilized as a stack or fade candidate on this slate. The entire top three of the Rangers order, Jurickson Profar (119 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .159 ISO vs RHP), Ian Desmond (115 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .213 ISO vs RHP), and Nomar Mazara (110 wRC+, .346 wOBA, .169 ISO vs RHP), are the integral parts of the stack in tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Ian Desmond, Nomar Mazara, Edinson Volquez
Brian Dozier leads off with a 183 wRC+ & .372 ISO vs LHP and strong numbers against Quintana
Jose Quintana has retained his season strikeout rate (22.4%) over the last month, but with a 6.7 SwStr% that’s concerning. In fact, he now has the 12th lowest SwStr% among qualified starters this year and his 34.1 Hard% is a career high by more than five points. Though his 8.8 HR/FB remains low, he’s still allowed 13 because he also has a career low 0.97 GB/FB. All of this is covered up in his 2.97 ERA due to an 80% strand rate. This is all to mention that the Twins have four RHBs at the top of the lineup who smash LHP and a Minnesota stack could be quite sneaky tonight. The top three have a wRC+ above 175 and ISO above .230 against LHP since 2015, while Vargas has a 171 wRC+ against them since last year with very few chances so far in 2016. Dozier, now in the leadoff spot, additionally has four career HRs in 49 PAs against Quintana with a 93.8 mph aEV in 13 batted balls against him since last season.
Other tagged players: Jose Quintana, Kennys Vargas
Matt Boyd has lowered his HR rate this year, still struggles with RHBs (.333 wOBA, 6 HRs)
Matt Boyd has dropped to an 11.8 HR/FB this season and has a perfectly average 12.5 K-BB%. He hasn’t been that bad, but has only gone even six innings just twice in eight starts and still struggles against RHBs, who have all six of his HRs allowed this year and a .333 wOBA. While Jose Altuve (181 wRC+, .227 ISO vs LHP this season) may be tonight’s top Second Baseman, his cost is enormous on either site. George Springer (156 wRC+, .294 ISO vs LHP this season) is a top OF bat and a more reasonable $3.7K on FanDuel. Evan Gattis (117 wRC+, .293 ISO vs LHP this season) may be the value play here at $2.9K on FanDuel behind the plate. He has a 260 wRC+ over the last week. Players also have to consider that Boyd doesn’t often get more than two trips through the lineup, so except for those at the very top, batters are very likely to be seeing a RHP, as suspect at the Detroit bullpen may be, after two shots at a lefty
Other tagged players: Evan Gattis, Jose Altuve, Matthew Boyd Odorizzi has a 21.5% K-BB% versus LHB, Yankees rolling out seven LHB tonight
Odorizzi draws a better matchup at home versus the Yankees than expected at first glance. Odorizzi is an average strikeout (22.5% K%), low-walk pitcher (7.2% BB%) that surrenders an above-average fly ball rate (43.4% FB%) with a home ballpark that suits his pitching style perfectly. The Yankees don’t strikeout a ton (19.3% K% vs RHP) which lowers the upside a bit for Odorizzi, but their middling power (.151 ISO vs RHP) could result in more fly ball outs that would normally be home runs at Yankee Stadium. Odorizzi has also shown some substantial reverse splits (3.50 xFIP, .267 wOBA vs LHB) which could really play in his favor against this left-heavy Yankees lineup. For that reason, we should look to fully avoid Yankees bats as they don’t have the same upside on the road in this matchup as they would at home.
As reported by: FanGraphs Tyrell Jenkins has walked twice as many batters as he's struck out in three July starts
Tyrell Jenkins has walked 10, striking out just five in three starts this month. He is one of the few pitchers that probably should not be considered against the Phillies. He’s allowed six HRs with a 34.5 Hard% in 23 innings overall in the majors and while LHBs have hit him well (.342 wOBA), RHBs have pounded him (.458 wOBA and 38 Hard%). It’s still a very small sample, but probably worth looking at some affordable Philadelphia bats here. Aaron Altherr (167 wRC+, .308 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the ultimate value/punt Outfielder tonight at $2.8K on DraftKings and the absolute minimum on FanDuel. Tommy Joseph (99 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP) is less than $4K on either site and Maikel Franco (112 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP career) is less than $3.5K. Those are really the top power bats against RHP in this lineup.
Other tagged players: Tommy Joseph, Maikel Franco, Tyrell Jenkins Piscotty OUT, Garcia leads off in Miami against Urena
Jose Urena has an ERA above five with estimators to match in 93 major league innings with just an 11.8 K%. He’s shown almost no split with LHBs having a .340 wOBA against him and RHBs just two points lower. The Cardinals lose a bit of potency without Stephen Piscotty tonight, but still have several affordable bats on FanDuel that project well for the cost, while that’s harder to say on DraftKings with higher price tags. Greg Garcia (138 wRC+ vs RHP this season) is a great value at 2B in the leadoff spot for $2.1K as is Aledmys Diaz (149 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP) at SS for $2.9K. Tommy Pham (145 wRC+, .246 ISO vs RHP this season) and Jeremy Hazlebaker (109 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP) are reasonable punt Outfielders lower in the batting order.
Other tagged players: Aledmys Diaz, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Tommy Pham, Jose Urena Rockies are currently tied for the second-lowest implied run total on the slate (3.2)
Steven Matz seems to be healthy for the most part. If he’s not, he is doing an outstanding job of pitching through it, and he gets a great matchup against the Rockies (86 wRC+, .327 wOBA) at Citi Field tonight. Matz isn’t an elite strikeout pitcher by any means (22.7% K%), but he typically exhibits great control (5.8% BB%), which is a great recipe for success when combined with an above-average 51.8 % GB%. Matz doesn’t induce as many ground balls against right-handed batters (44.7%), so you could make a case for using Nolan Arenado (121 wRC+, .378 wOBA, .237 ISO vs RHP) or Trevor Story (146 wRC+, .425 wOBA, .323 ISO vs RHP) in tournaments, but Matz also has an increased strikeout rate versus righties (24.1% K%). The Rockies have a 23.4% K% versus left-handed pitching so it is reasonable to believe Matz has the upside in this matchup to be an elite play in cash games and tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story Gausman could struggle against Toronto with reverse split (RHBs .362 wOBA since 2015)
Kevin Gausman has pitched well for the Orioles this year (3.77 ERA with matching estimators and a 22.5 K%), but has a few disadvantages in this matchup. The obvious is facing a high power Blue Jays lineup (108 wRC+ on the road, 105 wRC+ vs RHP) at home in Baltimore. The second is that he been a better pitcher against LHBs (.276 wOBA since last season) and there are only two of them in this lineup. RHBs have a .362 wOBA against him since last season with the Blue Jays projected to score 4.87 runs tonight. Aside from Josh Donaldson (154 wRC+, .271 ISO vs RHP since 2015), the top overall bat here and probably at 3B tonight, many Toronto bats project for more value on DraftKings, where they’re strangely the same price cheaper, including Jose Bautista (141 wRC+, .275 ISO vs RHP since 2015) at $3.9K and Edwin Encarnacion (145 wRC+, .279 ISO vs RHP since 2015) at $4.3K on either site.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion Christian Yelich OUT of the lineup tonight, Marlins implied run total has dropped nearly a full run (3.6)
Mike Leake has made the conscious decision to begin throwing his slider much more often recently and it has really paid off in terms of strikeouts. Leake has posted a 26.7% strikeout rate over his last four starts which is a significant jump over his season long numbers. Normally, we could simply write this off as an anomaly but Leake has exhibited a clear change in his pitching style, and these new-found strikeouts are supported by an elite 14.2% SwStr% in his past four starts (double-digit SwStr% in every game). Amazingly, he has done all this while increasing his ground ball rate to 60.8% this month. Leake has had the most success against right-handed heavy lineups which he will, in fact, face tonight in this Marlins offense. The Marlins are not an offense that we need to particularly fear (96 wRC+, .318 wOBA, .135 ISO vs RHP) and they will be without their best left-handed bat tonight in Christian Yelich.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds D'Arnaud bats second for Mets at home against Chatwood, who has reverse splits this year
Tyler Chatwood has just a 15.1 K% that doesn’t lend towards much daily fantasy value even outside of Coors, but he does keep the ball on the ground 57.7% of the time, which makes him a more useful real life pitcher. Oddly, he’s been better against LHBs (275 wOBA, 25.3 Hard%, 59.7 GB%,2.9 HR/FB) than RHBs (.336 wOBA, 32.2 Hard%, 55.9 GB%, 14.3 HR/FB). The Mets appear to recognize this and place Travis D’Arnaud (105 wRC+, .157 ISO vs RHP since 2015) in the two spot tonight. He has struggled this year, but immediately becomes a good value for $3K or less for the lineup spot alone at a weak position. Yoenis Cespedes (144 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the top overall bat in the lineup at a reasonable cost of less than $4.5K on either site.
Other tagged players: Tyler Chatwood, Yoenis Cespedes Hyun Soo Kim is an affordable OF bat with a 147 wRC+ vs RHP and 152 wRC+ at home
Marco Estrada has struggled a bit in just three starts over the last month. Perhaps it’s the bad back that forced him to miss a start, but a BABIP over .300 has led to his ERA and estimators meeting around four over that span. While he might not be expected to continue to pitch poorly if healthy, we don’t know that he fully is and his ERA is still a run and a half below his estimators for his career. While LHBs have just a .288 wOBA against him since last season, a couple look interesting in a great hitting environment tonight at a low price. Hyun Soo Kim (147 wRC+, .126 ISO vs RHP and 152 wRC+ at home) costs just $3K on either site and Chris Davis (143 wRC+, .307 ISO vs RHP since 2015) rarely costs less than $4K at home against a RHP. He has two HRs in 17 career PAs against Estrada.
Other tagged players: Chris Davis, Marco Estrada Ivan Nova has allowed a HR in all except one start, but has a 25.8 K% over the last month
Ivan Nova has allowed exactly one ER in three of his last four starts, though he still has allowed a HR in all but one start. He also has a 25.8 K% over the last month, backed up by his 11.7 SwStr% and he has a strong 54.9 GB%. While there’s little difference in his home and road HR rates, which is a bit of a surprise, this is still an excellent spot against a high strikeout offense (24.3 K% vs RHP). Most daily fantasy players probably know Nova as a HR machine, which should help out his ownership numbers as well. While a good chunk of the responsibility for a .372 wOBA against him by LHBs since last season probably falls to Yankee Stadium, it has little to do with the 34.6 Hard%. We’re still going to want to look at a few decent LHBs with some power at low prices here. That includes Brad Miller (115 wRC+. 201 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who may be a top SS value on either site tonight for around $3.5K. Corey Dickerson (116 wRC+. .266 ISO vs RHP since 2015) at $3.3K or less, and even Kevin Kiermaier (102 wRC+, .177 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for $3K or less. Evan Longoria (136 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP) is a bit more expensive and has three HRs in 39 career PAs against Nova, but also nine strikeouts.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Brad Mills, Corey Dickerson, Kevin Kiermaier, Evan Longoria Tyler Naquin continues to mash RHP (178 wRC+, .312 ISO) and bat eighth
Kendall Graveman has an ERA just above three in July, but much higher estimators due to a .237 BABIP and just one HR allowed. He seems to have greatly improved upon his early season HR issues, but it’s come at the cost of some better strikeout numbers at that time too as he’s down to a 12.5 K% over the last month. He’s kept RHBs on the ground over 55% of the time this season, but LHBs have a .343 wOBA against him since last season with a bit more of an ability to elevate. The Indians are a tough offense on RHP this season, led by Kipnis (137 wRC+, .236 ISO), Lindor (119 wRC+, .163 ISO), Santana (141 wRC+, .280 ISO) and even Chisenhall (123 wRC+, .167 ISO), all of whom appear to be strong bats tonight and reasonable or better values at current costs across both sites. For those who like high cost sluggers batting eighth, Tyler Naquin continues to mash RHP (178 wRC+, .312 ISO) and has a 216 wRC+ at home.
Other tagged players: Kendall Graveman, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Lonnie Chisenhall Valencia sits against Bauer in Cleveland
Trevor Bauer has allowed 15 ERs over his last 26.2 innings with just a 6.6 K-BB% and 38.6 Hard% since his strong four start run in June. The A’s further lower his strikeout potential (18 K% on the road and vs RHP), but have few strong bats against RHP in a lineup projected to score less than four runs tonight. As a team, they have just an 89 wRC+ and 10.1 HR/FB vs RHP, so while Bauer may be in a decent spot to prevent runs, he’s been pitching poorly and his upside would seem limited. Josh Reddick handles RHP well (138 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP since 2015), but is not very cheap. This looks like an almost entirely fade-worthy matchup.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Trevor Bauer Cubs are large favorites (again) in lone Friday afternoon game
Jon Lester and the Cubs host the Mariners and Hisashi Iwakuma in the lone Friday afternoon game and as is usually the case for these kick off the weekend affairs, the home team (Cubs) are large (-179) favorites. Lester has been excellent this season, especially against LH bats (.247 wOBA allowed with 28.3% K rate). He more than holds his own (.297 wOBA, 22.7% K rate) against RH bats as well. Nelson Cruz (.426 wOBA vs LHP) is always a viable option but outside of maybe Franklin Gutierrez is the only Mariner worth targeting from this game. Iwakuma has allowed a .315+ wOBA to both sides of the plate this season including a .337 wOBA to LH bats. Chris Coghlan leads off for the Cubs and is an intriguing value option. Anthony Rizzo is always a great target when facing a RHP and Kris Bryant and Ben Zobrist are also worth consideration if playing a GPP using this game.
As reported by: Chicago Cubs official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Jon Lester, Nelson Cruz