DFS Alerts
Aaron Nola has struggled, but still has strong season rates and potentially tonight's top matchup in Atlanta
Aaron Nola has struggled a bit, was sent down the minors and has returned to have two very different starts, though he struck out five of 20 in each. He’s still top 10 in baseball in K-BB (19.7%), GB rate (54.9%) and Hard-Soft contact (3.2%). The major selling point for him today is that he’s facing the Braves, who have a 76 wRC+, 26.5 Hard% and 8.2 HR/FB vs RHP this season and just a 74 wRC+ and 6.8 HR/FB at home. Nola is a talented and more marginally priced pitcher players can consider with potentially the top matchup tonight. If not, players are very likely looking for strong, affordable bats and Freddie Freeman (137 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP since 2015) fits that mold at around $3.5K on either site. LHBs have a .320 wOBA against Nola and Freeman has a 204 wRC+ with a 44.4 Hard% over the last week. Nick Markakis (112 wRC+, .103 ISO vs RHP since last season) has homered twice against Nola, but has just an 85.5 mph aEV on six batted balls against him and rarely shows much power anymore. Still, he costs just $2.5K on FanDuel.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis
Jose Fernandez has struck out at least seven in 14 of 15 starts.
Jose Fernandez is the top pitcher and possibly even the top value at the highest price on a strong pitching slate. He’s sent down at least seven and usually more in 14 of his last 15 starts, missing by a single strikeout once. His control has improved as the season’s gone on to where he now has a 29.4 K-BB% just behind Kershaw for the major league lead. The Cardinals are the top road offense in baseball and second best vs RHP with a 14+ HR/FB in each spot. It’s not a great spot, but they have a 24.8 K% and have struggled offensively over the last week having played double-headers and long extra-inning games, which could improve this spot for Fernandez beyond what most of the numbers say. Players should probably attempt to do whatever they can to fit him in lineups, as is the case almost any time he’s on the mound. LHBs have a .315 wOBA and 34.5 Hard% against him since last season, so players who want to go low cost contrarian might consider Matt Adams (114 wRC+. .242 ISO vs RHP this season) at $2.7K on either site, but this is not a power friendly park and he has to make contact to do any damage. Cardinal batters are not recommended tonight. They are the only offense projected for less than three runs tonight (2.85).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Matt Adams Dee Gordon returns from suspension at home against Wacha
Michael Wacha is a perfectly average pitcher (20.1 K%, 4.37 ERA, 4.22 SIERA, 3.96 xFIP). These are the pitchers players may have to attack tonight on a strong slate with a lot of high priced pitching and only six offenses projected for even four runs tonight. The Marlins are one of those (barely – 4.11) and Giancarlo Stanton (124 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is it’s top bat and one of just two with any power vs RHP. RHBs have a .320 wOBA against Wacha since 2015, but just a 29 Hard%. He’s fared better against LHBs (.289 wOBA), which is part of the reason a higher priced Yelich (154 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP this season) may be less viable. Other bats to consider who might not be highly owned and cost $3.5K or less on either site are Marcell Ozuna (109 wRC+, .168 ISO vs RHP this season) and Martin Prado (90 wRC+ vs RHP this season) who has a 204 wRC+ over the last week. Derek Dietrich remains in the lineup due to the hole at 1B, but drops down further in the order. The two through six batters all have a hard hit rate above 36% over the last week, which could make them an interesting contrarian stack tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Marcell Ozuna, Derek Dietrich, Martin Prado, Christian Yelich, Michael Wacha Ryan Braun scratched;
Braun has been scratched from the Brewers lineup with right side tightness. Hernan Perez moves to third in the lineup and Kirk Nieuwenhuis replaces Braun in the OF and will bat 5th.
As reported by: Milwaukee Brewers official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Kevin Roth's weather forecast posted - some concerns in Chicago
RotoGrinders.com Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth has posted his weather forecast and his biggest concern is in Chicago where he has classified the game as having a possibility of delay/postponement. There are also some moderate concerns for the afternoon Rockies@Mets game. Roth will keep the forecast updated throughout the day so make sure to check the thread in the RotoGrinders.com forums to see what the latest developments are.
As reported by: Kevin Roth on RotoGrinders.com Jake Elmore great value option leading off for Brewers
The Brewers are resting their regular leadoff hitter Jonathan Villar today (along with C Jonathan Lucroy) and have inserted Jake Elmore in the leadoff spot against Rockies LHP Robbie Ray. At under $2.4K on both major sites, Elmore makes for an excellent value option today as Ray has allowed a .348 wOBA to RH bats this season. The middle of the Brewers lineup is loaded with RH power bats and the likes of Ryan Braun, Chris Carter, and Hernan Perez are worth consideration against Ray. Zach Davies has pitched well of late for the Brewers and brings a close to 20% K rate into today’s game. He’s a secondary SP option worth consideration on two SP sites. Michael Bourn leads off for the Dbacks and with his speed has some value. Philip Gosselin is cheap and batting second for them and Paul Goldschmidt is always worth a look as he is almost match up proof.
As reported by: Milwaukee Brewers official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Paul Goldschmidt Rockies easy team to fade today
With a run total of just over three runs and facing Jacob deGrom of the Mets, the Rockies are an easy team to avoid using today, even on a day where there are only two afternoon games and nine games in total. Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, and Nolan Arenado are consistent producers against RHP but most of those RHP are not of the caliber of deGrom and they have the disadvantage of playing at a not so hitter friendly park today. The Rockies SP Tyler Anderson does have some potential going against a Mets offense with a run total of just under four runs, especially considering he’ll be underowned. Anderson has struck out almost a batter per inning so there is some upside if he can find a way to keep the RH bats of the Mets in check.
As reported by: Jenny Cavnar on Twitter Jacob deGrom one of top SP options on a light day of MLB action
With only nine games in total (and just two in the afternoon), options are limited. Jacob deGrom is the clear top option of the two early games and along with Jose Fernandez is one of the top two choices for the all day slate. He faces a Rockies team that traditionally struggles on the road and Vegas has given them a run total right at three runs. The Mets square off against LHP Tyler Anderson who hasn’t been terrible thus far in his rookie campaign but has allowed a .322 wOBA to RH bats in his limited time. Yoenis Cespedes would normally be a top option but he is sitting out today’s game. Juan Lagares leading off, Wilmer Flores batting third, and Neil Walker batting clean up are the top options from the Mets lineup with Flores (.450 wOBA and .344 ISO vs LHP) particularly appealing.
As reported by: New York Mets official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Wilmer Flores Rangers check-in with the second-highest implied run total on the slate
Manaea has been slowly but surely figuring it out at the major league level and finally pitching to the expectations of an elite prospect. Because of this, we should use some caution in targeting the Rangers, however, there is still some upside for their right-handed bats in this matchup. Manaea has a decent 18.2% K% accompanied by a low 5.9% BB% against righties, but that is the type of pitcher profile that sets up perfectly for the Rangers as they’re a team that prefers to swing the bat ranking towards the bottom of the league in walks versus left-handed pitching (6.6% BB%). Manaea does a good job inducing ground balls to lefties (51.1% GB%) but has no such luck against right-handed batters (40.0% FB%, 1,29 HR/9). The top Rangers bats in consideration are Ian Desmond (164 wRC+, .424 wOBA, .200 ISO vs LHP) and Adrian Beltre (137 wRC+, .385 wOBA, .202 ISO vs LHP). Ryan Rua (136 wRC+, .384 wOBA, .178 ISO vs LHP) and Elvis Andrus (144 wRC+, .396 wOBA, .192 ISO vs LHP) also make decent tournament plays to round out Rangers stacks.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Adrian Beltre, Ryan Rua, Elvis Andrus, Sean Manaea
Kevin's Weather post has been updated with risk in Texas slightly downgraded
Check out the link below for a full weather breakdown for tonight’s slate.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page
Yankees implied to score 3.3 runs, the lowest run projection on the slate
McCullers is in a similar situation to Yu Darvish, as he has massive strikeout upside but tends to issue too many free passes that limit the amount of innings he is able to pitch. A 29.3% K% that is backed up by a 12.4% SwStr% give McCullers clear upside in any matchup, but a 13.7% BB% gives him plenty of risk for an abbreviated outing against this patient Yankees lineup that makes above average contact (18.9% K%). McCullers has managed at least six strikeouts in his last 11 starts, so he obviously has the floor and upside needed in tournaments. It’s all about limiting walks when it comes to McCullers posting a solid outing.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Archie Bradley struggles with LHB, something this Brewers offense severely lacks
The Brewers are certainly a stack candidate since Bradley (4.52 SIERA) tends to have some serious control issues (11.5% BB%) that could get him pulled from this game early. Bradley severely struggles with left-handed batters evidenced by a 40.2% Hard% allowed that accompanies a .382 wOBA and 4.91 xFIP. Unfortunately, there is not a lot that stands out from an individual matchup standpoint with the Milwaukee lefties, although, they can definitely be considered as a part of a Brewers stack. Bradley has a high 26.2% K% versus right-handed batters so it may not be the best idea target any Brewers righties outside of Ryan Braun (128 wRC+, .369 wOBA, .189 ISO vs RHP) and Jonathan Lucroy (133 wRC+, .377 wOBA, .189 ISO vs RHP) given they have the numbers and ability to take advantage of an average RHP. This game has one of the higher totals on the slate, but their isn’t much to like from just a strict matchup perspective making the Brewers a stack or fade option in tournaments.
Other tagged players: Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Braun, Archie Bradley Kevin's Weather report for Wednesday night has been updated to account for some new pop-up storms in MIN
There isn’t a huge cause for concern with some new storms firing up near MIN, but it’s worth tracking as we approach lineup lock. Check out the link below for a full weather breakdown.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Max Kepler OUT of the lineup, Twins lefties the preferred targets versus Mike Foltynewicz
Foltynewicz has massive splits, with decent strikeouts to batters from both sides of the plate (21.6% K%), but strangely induces a high number of ground balls to righties (51.4% GB%) where it’s the exact opposite to left-handed batters (51.4% FB%). It isn’t a perfect matchup for Minnesota but Kennys Vargas (164 wRC+, .418 wOBA, .316 ISO vs RHP) and Robbie Grossman (108 wRC+, .335 wOBA vs RHP) could be interesting options. Miguel Sano (.202 ISO vs RHP) always has the power upside to worth a look in tournaments but this isn’t the greatest spot for him.
Other tagged players: Robbie Grossman, Miguel Sano, Mike Foltynewicz Cardinals have a 113 wRC+, .341 wOBA, .199 ISO as a team versus RHP
To this point in his brief career, Logan Verrett has shown reverse splits, which sets up well for this righty-heavy Cardinals lineup. Verrett has a career 15.9% K%, 10.0% BB%, and 4.64 xFIP versus right-handed batters. Unfortunately, he hasn’t fared much better against lefties posting a 18.6% K%, 8.2% BB%, and 4.56 xFIP. Verrett induces a respectable number of ground balls (45.3%), but nothing special, so the Cardinals should be able to take full advantage of Verrett in this matchup. There’s a lot of ways we can go with the Cardinals bats as the entire lineup is in a good spot but Jedd Gyorko (153 wRC+, .398 wOBA, .374 ISO), Greg Garcia (151 wRC+, .395 wOBA), Aledmys Diaz (145 wRC+, .386 wOBA, .216 ISO), and Matt Adams (.242 ISO) are the ideal options given their lineup position and season long numbers against righties.
Other tagged players: Greg Garcia, Aledmys Diaz, Matt Adams, Logan Verrett