DFS Alerts
Glenn Robinson III (ankle) listed out Monday
Robinson III has been listed out on the Warriors’ injury report and won’t play in Monday’s matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves due to a sprained right ankle, while Eric Paschall is no longer listed on the injury report. Paschall has seen his role in the rotation diminish in the previous two games, but with Robinson now unavailable, he may be called upon to start at power forward in tonight’s contest, which would slide Draymond Green over to the small forward position. Robinson is an extremely low usage player, so his absence from the starting lineup won’t have too much of an impact on the remaining members of the starting lineup, but D’Angelo Russell continues to lead the way with a 33.0% usage rate and is averaging 1.24 DraftKings and 1.18 FanDuel points per minute on the year thus far.
As reported by: NBA Official Injury Report
Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring) a game-time decision Monday; Domantas Sabonis (hip) and Jeremy Lamb (groin) will play
Despite never being listed on the Pacers’ injury report, Brogdon is now a game-time decision for Monday’s matchup against the Toronto Raptors due to a groin injury, while Sabonis and Lamb have been cleared to play despite their original questionable designations. There haven’t been any reports of a potential minute restriction for Sabonis or Lamb, so they should be able to handle their usual allotment of minutes in tonight’s contest. In Lamb’s absence, Aaron Holiday ended up starting both games alongside Malcolm Brogdon in the backcourt, and he was mostly serviceable from a fantasy perspective on both occasions, logging at least 30 minutes each time.
As reported by: the Indiana Pacers via Twitter Other tagged players: Domantas Sabonis, Jeremy Lamb Larry Nance Jr. (knee) out Monday
Nance Jr. has officially been downgraded from questionable and won’t play in Monday’s matchup against the Atlanta Hawks due to a sore knee. Head coach John Beilein admitted to reporters that Cedi Osman could get additional playing time at power forward with Nance sidelined, and Alfonzo McKinnie may enter the rotation in a fringe reserve role. If that statement ends up holding true, Kevin Porter Jr. and Jordan Clarkson should have a longer leash in terms of playing time at the wing positions, which makes them both viable tournament targets that lack viable value options at their respective positions, and Porter has averaged 0.77 DraftKings and 0.75 FanDuel points per minute with Nance off the court this season.
As reported by: James Rapien via Twitter Shabazz Napier (illness) downgraded to questionable Monday
Napier has been added to the Timberwolves’ injury report and is now questionable for Monday’s matchup against the Golden State Warriors due to an illness, while Karl-Anthony Towns remains questionable with a sprained left knee that has already forced him to miss three games. The recent emergence of Napier as Minnesota’s starting point guard has really hindered the playing time of Jarrett Culver and Josh Okogie, so if Napier is unable to suit up, they would likely see an increase in playing time while Culver or Jeff Teague would be the leading candidates to rejoin the starting unit. With Towns sidelined, Gorgui Dieng finally saw a normal starters’ workload in Saturday’s loss, logging just over 36 minutes of action, making him an elite tournament option if Towns is unavailable and plays anywhere near that amount this evening.
As reported by: Timberwolves PR via Twitter Ricky Rubio (illness), Frank Kaminsky (knee), and Dario Saric (leg) will play Monday
Rubio has officially been upgraded from questionable and will play in Monday’s matchup against the Denver Nuggets after missing one game due to an illness, while Kaminsky and Saric will be available, as expected, despite their original probable designations on the injury report. There haven’t been any reports of a potential minute restriction for Rubio, so he’ll presumably be fine to absorb his usual allotment of minutes in the starting lineup, which will send Elie Okobo back to the bench to resume a reserve role following a relatively great fantasy performance in 30 minutes of action in Saturday’s loss. Rubio appears to be appropriately priced across the daily fantasy industry, but he always remains in consideration for tournament formats since he has a 20.7% usage rate, a 39.5% assist rate, and is averaging 1.13 DraftKings and 1.11 FanDuel points per minute on the season.
As reported by: Gerald Bourguet via Twitter Other tagged players: Frank Kaminsky, Dario Saric Spike In Production
After a slow start to the season, Russell Westbrook has been much better of late, scoring 30+ points in three straight contests. Mike D’Antoni has done a much better job at staggering Westbrook and James Harden’s court time which has led to more opportunity for RWB whose usage jumps to a massive 40.8% (+8.5%) with Harden off the court. Despite Westbrook’s spike in recent production, his price tag remains stagnant and there’s still plenty of room for him to exceed value as long as he continues to remain aggressive.
Low Owned Value Play
We have a lot of strong value plays tonight, but if you’re looking for an under the radar play, I really like D.J. Augustin. With Carter-Williams out tonight, Augustin should see his 25+ minutes. He’s been a lot more aggressive off the bench recently and has at least eight shot attempts in four straight games. He also has over 30 fantasy points in three of the last four games.
I'll Be Overweight
With so many injuries to the Washington Wizards, they should only have nine active guys on the roster tonight. Smith, Beal, and Brown should all see 35+ minutes if this game stays close. Smith has scored at least 28 fantasy points in three of the last five games, and his price actually came down after the last game. He’s likely going to be the highest owned play tonight, but I don’t see a road to him busting unless he gets hurt.
Luke Kennard (knee) listed out Monday; Bruce Brown (calf) listed questionable
Luke Kennard (knee) listed out Monday; Bruce Brown (calf) listed questionable
As reported by: NBA Official Injury Report Other tagged players: Bruce Brown Too Cheap on FanDuel
Vucevic is a fine target tonight, but his price stands out as the most appealing on FanDuel — where he is all the way down at $7,700. That’s a very fair price tag for a player who seems to be fully healthy again. Vucevic was fantastic in the last game with 63 FanDuel points in 33 minutes against the Blazers. Yes, his production was inflated in that game thanks to a fluky six steal performance, but he still had 23 points, 12 rebounds, and a usage rate near 30%. He’s back. The matchup tonight is also favorable against a Bulls team that lacks talent and depth on the interior. Chicago ranks 28th in the NBA in rebounding differential, ahead of only Atlanta and Washington. This feels like an easy double-double spot for Vucevic, and his FD price tag feels like it’s around $1,000 too cheap. It’s tough to lock in a “core” center on FanDuel because you only get to choose one, but it seems warranted in this spot. The combination of matchup, opportunity, and salary is too good to ignore.
The Price Tag is Just Too Cheap
Shabazz Napier is not going to be a fantasy superstar. However, he has DFS appeal as long as his price remains discounted. He seems to be a nice fit as the newly minted starting point guard in Minnesota, and he sits at $3,400 on DraftKings, $11 on Yahoo, and $6,500 on FantasyDraft. That’s basically minimum salary on all three sites. The salaries alone make him worthy of core play consideration, especially after he played nearly 30 minutes against Portland over the weekend. He impressed with a healthy 26% usage rate and an 18/4/4 line in that game. Changes are always possible here, but I don’t expect Napier’s role to decrease after he was one of the team’s better players on Saturday. He’s not a necessity at a nearly $5K tag on FanDuel, but the salary makes him an obvious target on the other sites. It’s also a nice bonus that the Wolves have a winnable game tonight against a bad Golden State team, so we might see a few extra minutes for the primary options in this matchup.
Top Play on the Slate
I learned the lesson on Saturday that you can simply always plug in James Harden for cash game safety, especially when there is enough value on a slate in order to fit him in comfortably. That is the case tonight. There is a ton of value out there tonight, and Harden becomes the priority play to spend your top dollars on. He leads the NBA with a massive 37.9% usage rate, and his numbers are extremely consistent every time he takes the floor. The guy is a 50+ fantasy point machine every night. He is shooting the ball 25 times per game, and his playing time and volume have increased in December. While tonight’s matchup doesn’t seem ideal against a slower paced Sacramento squad, Harden is still a great option. The Rockets have an implied team total of 117 points, and the fact that this is a road game increases the odds of the game staying close. The Kings rank also 25th in our Defense vs. Archetype tool against combo guards. Harden will be just fine, and there’s enough value to fit him in your lineups.
Mega Usage To Go Around
Ish Smith should be the top value play in your cash games tonight, but I’ve toyed with the idea of also tagging Bradley Beal as a core play, and I might do that before the afternoon is through. Given the close spread and Washington’s high implied team total, the Smith + Beal combination should provide access to a gigantic chunk of Washington’s offensive production. Come to think of it, I’m just going to go ahead and tag Beal too. He might shoot the ball 35 times tonight. Literally the only risks here are injuries and/or a blowout, and I don’t see this game turning lopsided either way given the current state of both rosters. There is tons of usage to go around, and Beal is an elite play.
Elite Value For A Banged Up Team
There are few bodies left for this Washington team. We can’t even run a meaningful CourtIQ sample with all these players off the floor. The replacement big men are not high usage players. Ian Mahinmi is not capable of playing 35 minutes. Admiral Schofield has not been a quality fill-in. Anzejs Pasecniks is not the answer, though he’s got a great name. Basically, this offense is going to run through the Washington backcourt this evening. It’s a favorable matchup on the road against a bad Knicks team, and Washington still has a healthy implied team total of around 115 points. We saw Ish Smith fill in nicely when Isaiah Thomas was out earlier this month, and Smith should be tasked with doing more offensively this time around given all the other injuries. I would expect a baseline of around a fantasy point per minute, and Smith should be good for about 31-34 minutes tonight. If that’s the case, his baseline projection is in the 30s — and his DFS price is far too cheap on every site given that projection.
Marcus Morris (Achilles) doubtful Monday; Taj Gibson (illness) questionable
Morris has been added to the Knicks’ injury report and is doubtful for Monday’s matchup against the Washington Wizards due to a sore left Achilles, while Gibson is now questionable because of an illness. Morris has only missed two games this season, but on both occasions, Kevin Knox received the starting nod at small forward and averaged 22.4 minutes per start, making him the likeliest candidate to join the starting lineup. However, Knox has logged at least 21 minutes off the bench in each of the previous four games under interim head coach Mike Miller, so he definitely has extra minutes upside if he draws the start on the wing this evening. Other than Knox, it’s been Julius Randle that’s benefitted the most with Morris off the court, as he owns a 29.3% usage rate and is averaging 1.17 DraftKings and 1.10 FanDuel points per minute in a 239.7 minutes sample size.
As reported by: NY_KnicksPR via Twitter Other tagged players: Taj Gibson