DFS Alerts
Cardinals slot corner Tyrann Mathieu out Sunday
Crowder will avoid the Honey Badger’s coverage today, which sets up a better matchup for him. Pierre Garcon also has a plus matchup against Marcus Cooper, who has a 44.6 PFF grade this season. Unfortunately for DeSean Jackson, he’ll be stuck under Patrick Peterson’s shadow and doesn’t have a great outlook today. With Jordan Reed out, Vernon Davis will step in at tight end, but the Cardinals have shut down that position all season long. That means plenty of targets for Crowder and Garcon. Kirk Cousins has been on fire as of late, averaging 369 yards and 2.2 touchdowns over the past five games. The game has a high total of 48.5 points and the cardinals are only favored by 2.5. It’s a great spot to target Crowder and Garcon.
As reported by: Mike Jurecki Other tagged players: Pierre Garcon
Brady, Edelman, Hogan, and Bennett will play Sunday, as expected
All of these guys are in great spots today. New England has an implied team total of 29 points, the second highest on the board. The Rams pass defense ranks 16th in DVOA. Even though they’re 13.5-point favorites, game flow may not be too much of a concern. Brady has averaged 3.0 touchdowns per win this season, and the average margin of victory was 13.8. If they win big, it’s because of Brady’s success, which in turn benefits the receivers. Bennett will see an uptick in volume with Gronk out. Malcolm Mitchell will see more snaps as the Patriots employ more three-wide sets without their star tight end. Mitchell has caught three touchdowns over the past two games and will see a lot of E.J. Gaines today, who has a terrible 38 PFF grade and has allowed 0.41 fantasy points per route defended, the seventh-highest rate in the league. He’s an interesting contrarian tournament option as we’re projecting his ownership at 6.0% or less across the industry. Edelman should lead the team in targets and could be considered for cash, more so on full PPR sites.
As reported by: Adam Schefter Other tagged players: Julian Edelman, Martellus Bennett, Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell Tavon Austin out Sunday, as expected
Austin (chest) wasn’t able to practice all week. He’s only averaged 3.0 targets per game since Jared Goff took over at quarterback, so his absence shouldn’t change the Rams’ pass distribution too much. Los Angeles are 13.5-point underdogs in New England today, so they should be pass-heavy most of the day. Malcolm Butler, who has an 86.2 PFF grade, will shadow Kenny Britt. Last week, Brandon Marshall put up a 6/67/1 line against him. It would be hard to expect similar production from the Goff/Britt duo. The Rams have an implied total of 16 points, the lowest on the board, and it would probably be best to fade their offense today.
As reported by: Adam Schefter Marvin Jones (thigh) considered "long-shot" to play Sunday
He’ll be tested pregame, although it doesn’t look like he’ll be able to play today. It was an exciting day to roster Jones as his price has fallen dramatically, he had 11 targets last week, and he was playing in the Superdome, but even if somehow plays, he’d be too risky to use now. Detroit are 6.5-point underdogs and the matchup has a 53-point total, they should be throwing quite a bit. Without Jones, Stafford will focus on Golden Tate, Anquan Boldin, Eric Ebron, and Theo Riddick. Tate leads the team in receptions and he should see a high volume of looks today, but he’s only scored two touchdowns on the season. Boldin, on the other hand, leads the team in red zone targets (12) and touchdowns (6). New Orleans ranks dead last against receiving running backs, which is great for Riddick, who is second on the team with 11 RZ passes. New Orleans ranks 21st against tight ends and we’re projecting Ebron as our top points-per-dollar TE on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
As reported by: Ian Rapoport Other tagged players: Golden Tate, Anquan Boldin, Eric Ebron, Theo Riddick Mark Ingram WILL play Sunday
Ingram (toe) wasn’t sure if he’d be able to play this week due to pain from his injury but Adam Schefter is reporting that he’ll suit up against the Lions. He’ll be in a timeshare with Tim Hightower again this week. Although he out-performed Hightower last game, Ingram may not see a huge boost in touches due to his injury. It’s a great matchup with a terrible defense and a high total, but Ingram is a risky bet given the circumstances.
As reported by: Adam Schefter Other tagged players: Tim Hightower Latavius Murray and Michael Crabtree will play Sunday, as expected
Murray (ankle) has averaged 19.2 touches over the past five games. He’s established himself as the clear lead back and he should have a floor of 15 touches against the Bills on Sunday. Crabtree (ankle) led the team with 10 targets last week, hauling in eight of them for 110 yards. He faces the lowest-graded Bills’ cornerback, Corey White, who has a 67.7 PFF grade. The game has a nice 48.5-point total and the spread is only three (Oakland favored). Buffalo ranks 19th in rush DVOA and 25th against the pass. It’s a nice spot for both players.
As reported by: Adam Schefter Other tagged players: Michael Crabtree DeVante Parker is unlikely to play Sunday, will warm up
Coach Adam Gase said he would be cautious with Parker (back), even though he expected Parker to try and play. It appears that the Dolphins will let him run to “state his case” before their game today, but he’s ultimately unlikely to play. Miami faces a tough Baltimore defense today that ranks 8th in pass DVOA. They’ll have their best corner, Jimmy Smith, but fortunately, he won’t be guarding Jarvis Landry too much as Smith rarely goes into the slot. Although Landry hasn’t been a target monster since the emergence of Jay Ajayi, he should get a high volume of looks today. Not only will he pick up some of Parker’s passes (he averaged eight targets over the last three games), but the Ravens rank first in rush DVOA. The Dolphins will likely rely on Landry to move the football in Baltimore.
As reported by: Ian Rapoport Other tagged players: Jarvis Landry Thomas, Cooks or Snead: Which New Orleans WR should you use?
The Lions/Saints contest features the highest over/under of the week. JMToWin dug into the game in this week’s Matchup of the Week article. One of the questions many DFS players are asking is which Saints WR should be paired with Drew Brees? After a zero-target effort last week many are looking to Brandin Cooks as a bounce-back candidate. That’s certainly one way to go as Cooks should move around enough to avoid Darius Slay for parts of the game. The main option to look at though is Michael Thomas. The Saints WR corps has combined for just five double-digit target games. Of those five, Thomas owns three of those games. He’s also the most-targeted WR in the Red Zone and 92% of all touchdowns against the Lions have come through the air. The remaining option here is Willie Snead who actually has the best matchup running the majority of his routes against slot cornerback Quandre Diggs. The short answer is that all three Saints WRs are in play but Thomas looks like the best option, albeit not by much.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week Other tagged players: Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead
Jordan Matthews (ankle) not expected to play Sunday
Matthews suffered the injury on Monday night against the Packers, causing him to shuffle in and out of the game. Philadelphia believes it’s serious enough to keep him out of today’s game with the Bengals. Nelson Agholor will be active after being a healthy scratch last week. He should see an uptick in targets, but he isn’t a trustworthy fantasy option. Dorial Green-Beckham will be their primary receiver and he should lead the team in targets along with Zach Ertz. Green-Beckham caught 6-of-10 targets against Green bay for 82 yards. He had eight targets and a touchdown the week prior. He’s a solid option today against Cincinnati’s 17th-ranked pass defense.
As reported by: Ian Rapoport Other tagged players: Dorial Green-Beckham, Zach Ertz Pat Thorman's Advanced Matchups article offers help identifying a mid-range RB
If you are trying to fit Drew Brees and several other expensive options this week, you’ve likely taken a glance at three RBs priced $6500-$6700 on FanDuel. Those RBs are Carlos Hyde, LeGarrette Blount, and Theo Riddick. In his Advanced Matchups article, Pat Thorman takes a look at each. Click on the “as reported by” link below to read the full article.
As reported by: Pat Thorman New Orleans blitz-heavy game plan could lead to lots of check downs for Detroit
The New Orleans Saints blitz on a league-high 40% of their defensive snaps. According to ESPN’s Ed Werder, Saints Defensive Coordinator Dennis Allen doesn’t think that is high enough. The Lions are likely to be without deep-threat Marvin Jones today. If the Saints go with a a blitz-heavy approach, the Lions should attack the soft middle of the defense with quick routes and check downs. That would lead to plenty of receptions for Golden Tate, Eric Ebron, Anquan Bolden and Theo Riddick. All four are priced very reasonably across the indstry
As reported by: Ed Werder Other tagged players: Eric Ebron, Anquan Boldin, Theo Riddick Julio Jones could be in for a big day against Phillip Gaines and Steven Nelson
The Kansas City Chiefs have arguably one of the best corners in the league in Marcus Peters. The Chiefs use Peters almost exclusively as their LCB. Per Pro Football Foocus, Peters has played 92% of his snaps at LCB, 8% in the slot, and 0% at RCB. That poses a serious problem today as Julio Jones plays the majority of his snaps (46%) at LWR where he would avoid Peters. Chiefs RCB Phillip Gaines was beaten last week for over 200 yards and 2 TDs against the Broncos. Gaines is questionable with a knee injury so the likely scenario is that the Chiefs use Steven Nelson in that spot. Nelson is just 5’11 and 194 pounds. He would surely have a tough time against Jones who is 6’3 and 220 pounds. At $8,300 on FanDuel and $8,700 on DraftKings Julio Jones deserves cash game consideration.
As reported by: Terez Paylor Lions promote T.J. Jones from practice squad, putting Marvin Jones' status in doubt
Jones (thigh) is officially questionable, but he was very limited in practice this week. Out of concern for their receiver, Detroit pulled up T.J. Jones to their 53-man roster, cutting running back Justin Forsett in the process. We won’t know whether Jones will play until after warmups tomorrow. If he can’t go, Golden Tate, Anquan Boldin, Eric Ebron, and Theo Riddick could all see an uptick in volume. Tate leads the team in targets (85), but has only scored twice and exceeded 100 yards once. Boldin leads the team in red zone targets (12) and touchdowns (6). It’s a great spot to target both receivers in tournaments; they play in the Superdome tomorrow and their game has a 52.5-point total. New Orleans ranks 25th in pass DVOA.
As reported by: Detroit Free Press Other tagged players: Golden Tate, Anquan Boldin Jacksonville's defense generates fewest turnovers in league
With rookie Paxton Lynch expected to make his second start on Sunday in a game with a 39-point total, it’s certainly worth considering the Jaguars DST in fantasy. The last time Lynch started, he was sacked six times by the Falcons, who rank 17th in adjusted sack rate, according to Football Outsiders. Jacksonville ranks 13th, while Denver’s offensive line ranks 29th. Despite being under that type of pressure, Lynch only threw one pick. While sacks are points on the board for fantasy defenses, upside comes from turnovers and touchdowns. Jacksonville, even if they get pressure on Lynch, will have trouble taking the ball away. They rank dead last in turnovers per drive (0.041) and have the fewest interceptions in the league (3). Although they should be able to stop Denver from scoring too much (they have an implied total of 21.25), and could get some sacks, they’re inability to force turnovers prevents them from being a great fantasy option this week. Even though they’re cheap, they still project in the bottom half from a points-per-dollar perspective.
Rob Gronkowski placed on IR
Gronkowski (back) had surgery Friday to repair a ruptured disc and won’t be able to return this season. In his place, Martellus Bennett will be the primary tight end. With his expected uptick in production, he projects as our TE6 this week. New England will likely use more three-wide sets, as they’ve done that whenever they’re without Gronk, which benefits Malcolm Mitchell. Coming off a two-touchdown performance against the Jets, Mitchell is a very interesting tournament option. He’ll face E.J. Gaines on the majority of his routes and that’s another plus; Gaines has an abysmal 38 PFF grade and has allowed 0.41 fantasy points per route defended, the 7th-highest rate in the league. The primary concern for the Patriots passing offense is game flow as they’re 13.5-point favorites, but Tom Brady has thrown for 3.0 touchdowns on average in every game he’s won this season. The average margin of victory in those games was 13.8 points.
As reported by: Field Yates Other tagged players: Martellus Bennett, Malcolm Mitchell