DFS Alerts
A.J. Brown 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, A.J. Brown is expected to be the fantasy WR6. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR7 at pick 23, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 20 as of July. We currently expect a 25% target share which amounts to a projection of 146 targets (Rank 10) and 1390 receiving yards (Rank 6) during the 17 week fantasy season.
For a guy slated to be WR6, there does seem to be a lot of volatility with Brown this season. For one, he had offseason surgery in both of his knees, leaving his status a little murky this far out from the start of the season. And then there is the whole Julio Jones acquisition too. The silver lining in all of this is that 1) Brown is a physical freak of nature, so I’d expect him to be ready to roll Week 1, and 2) we have brought his target share down just a tad from what it was last season (27.1%), and you are still looking at RG’s WR6. If you like betting on talent, there are few guys that have more of it than A.J. Brown.
Derrick Henry 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Derrick Henry is expected to be the fantasy RB3. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB3 at pick 3, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 3 as of July. We currently expect 1,632 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 1) with a 73% share of team carries. We also expect a 7% target share which amounts to a projection of 38 targets (Rank 34) and 178 receiving yards (Rank 44).
King Henry followed up his 1,540 rushing yards & 16 rushing TD’s in 2019 with a cool 2,027 rushing yards and 17 rushing TD’s last season. At this rate, it seems like the only thing that could stop him from having another monster year statistically is the addition of Julio Jones to the Titans passing attack. Even though our projections have Henry more towards his 2019 version, that still makes him one of the most valuable fantasy assets in all of football. It’s just too bad that all of the Titans games can’t be played in December.
Kylen Granson 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Kylen Granson is expected to be the fantasy TE44. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as TE38 at pick 274, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 265 as of July. We currently expect a 5% target share which amounts to a projection of 32 targets (Rank 45) and 208 receiving yards (Rank 45) during the 17 week fantasy season.
While the Colts sure seem high on their fourth-round pick, Granson probably needs an injury to Jack Doyle or Mo Alie-Cox to really put a dent into this season from a fantasy perspective. Of course, he could always end up just outplaying one (or both) of them as the season progresses, but it’s rare you see a rookie tight end make a big splash like that. The fact that the Colts went with a three-headed monster at tight end last season does bode well for Granson’s playing time this season though, assuming he is able to earn it.
Marlon Mack 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Marlon Mack is expected to be the fantasy RB73. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB63 at pick 221, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 258 as of July. We currently expect 200 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 66) with a 11% share of team carries. We also expect a 1% target share which amounts to a projection of 8 targets (Rank 80) and 53 receiving yards (Rank 78).
With Jonathan Taylor being a Top 5-10 RB heading into this season, long gone are the days of Mack being RB1 for the Colts. After leading the team with 1,091 rushing yards and 8 rushing TD’s in 2019, things went downhill fast for Mack from there. Not only did the Colts draft Taylor following the 2019 season, but then Mack tore his Achilles in Week 1 of last season. He is said to already be at 100% for training camp, but where exactly his role falls is anyone’s guess with Taylor and Hines ahead of him on the depth chart. Apparently, the general public is a little higher on Mack’s fantasy outlook than our projections.
Mo Alie-Cox 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Mo Alie-Cox is expected to be the fantasy TE30. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as TE27 at pick 209, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 227 as of July. We currently expect a 8% target share which amounts to a projection of 48 targets (Rank 33) and 331 receiving yards (Rank 30) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Whereas Colts tight end Jack Doyle appears to be getting drafted later than he should be, Cox is right about in line with how the public is perceiving him right now. Where Cox and Doyle are similar though is that they will both benefit from Trey Burton being out of the equation. Whether the two of them can put a stranglehold on the tight end position, however, remains to be seen. The fact that these two guys are barely able to eke into the Top 30 tight ends is a reflection on 1) how strong the Colts run game is, and 2) how much they like to spread the ball around when throwing.
Jack Doyle 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Jack Doyle is expected to be the fantasy TE29. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as TE42 at pick 287, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 220 as of July. We currently expect a 9% target share which amounts to a projection of 53 targets (Rank 29) and 342 receiving yards (Rank 29) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Jack Doyle SZN anyone? With Trey Burton and his 12.2% target share no longer on the team, Doyle is looking like a sneaky guy to buy low on in drafts based on our projections. The projected increase in target share (7.5% last season) is resulting in him being projected for 20 more targets than he saw last season (33). And with all the discussion about which wide receiver for the Colts rises to the top, it is Doyle who could end up being one of Wentz’s most preferred targets when it’s all said and done.
Parris Campbell 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Parris Campbell is expected to be the fantasy WR72. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR64 at pick 134, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 151 as of July. We currently expect a 14% target share which amounts to a projection of 82 targets (Rank 75) and 548 receiving yards (Rank 79) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Injuries have marred the first two seasons for Campbell, as he has only been able to play in nine games total in that span. And considering the Colts project to have a below average Pass Offense Rating, the range of outcomes for Campbell this season are quite wide. It is tough to get too excited about him if we think he is in fact getting drafted too early, but his fantasy prospects could look a little rosier if he is able to surpass Pascal on the depth chart on a consistent basis.
T.Y. Hilton 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, T.Y. Hilton is expected to be the fantasy WR56. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR63 at pick 133, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 113 as of July. We currently expect a 16% target share which amounts to a projection of 98 targets (Rank 53) and 741 receiving yards (Rank 55) during the 17 week fantasy season.
It’s crazy to think that T.Y. is entering his 10th season as a Colt. While he is projecting for very similar numbers to what he put up last season, that is still leading to him being drafted a little later than he should be. However, like with all Colts pass-catchers this season, there is going to be a lot of volatility since they have a new quarterback in the fold. It will be interesting to see early on who Wentz develops the better rapport with, the aging veteran in T.Y. or one of the young guys like Pittman, Pascal, or Campbell.
Nyheim Hines 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Nyheim Hines is expected to be the fantasy RB48. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB45 at pick 142, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 171 as of July. We currently expect 191 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 68) with a 11% share of team carries. We also expect a 10% target share which amounts to a projection of 61 targets (Rank 18) and 364 receiving yards (Rank 19).
Hines projects to take a bit of step back based on what he did in 2020 (380 rushing yards, 76 targets, 482 receiving yards). And it looks like he is getting drafted based more on what he did last season as opposed to what he projects for this season. Remember, Marlon Mack is back in the fold for the Colts this season after tearing his Achilles in Week 1 last season. Hines will always carry more value in PPR scoring due to his superb pass-catching ability, and his ceiling in DFS is probably a little higher than most think if the game script works in his favor.
Michael Pittman 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Michael Pittman is expected to be the fantasy WR46. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR46 at pick 90, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 86 as of July. We currently expect a 19% target share which amounts to a projection of 111 targets (Rank 42) and 814 receiving yards (Rank 46) during the 17 week fantasy season.
We are projecting a big jump in production for Pittman’s second season. As you can see, the numbers above are a meaningful increase from the 14.8% target share, 61 targets, and 503 receiving yards he saw in his rookie season (in just 13 games, mind you). How well—and how quickly—he connects with new quarterback Carson Wentz will be huge for both fantasy football as well as Indy’s Super Bowl aspirations.
Jonathan Taylor 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Jonathan Taylor is expected to be the fantasy RB5. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB7 at pick 9, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 6 as of July. We currently expect 1,220 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 4) with a 63% share of team carries. We also expect a 9% target share which amounts to a projection of 51 targets (Rank 23) and 348 receiving yards (Rank 21).
How soon is too soon to draft Jonathan Taylor? Based on where he is going in drafts now, apparently not soon enough. We are expecting a slight increase in his passing-game work, which is only going to help his fantasy outlook. Considering Taylor is coming off of 1,169 rushing yards and 11 TD’s in 2020—and running this season behind one of the best offensive lines in the league—you have to think we are going to see a lot more of the same with his rushing numbers in 2021.
Carson Wentz 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Carson Wentz is expected to be the fantasy QB17. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as QB22 at pick 162, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 131 as of July. We currently expect 4,140 passing yards (Rank 23) and 27 passing touchdowns (Rank 10) during the 17 week fantasy season. We also expect 218 yards rushing (Rank 13) with a 13% share of team rush attempts.
There appears to be some value with where Wentz is being drafted if you are okay taking on a little volatility with him coming over to a new team after a disastrous last season in Philly. If he is going to turn things around, there would theoretically be no better man to play for than his old pal, Frank Reich. The two of them certainly did some big things together in Philly. Whether or not they can repeat that in Indy is anyone’s guess. Regardless though, it looks like there is value to be had.
Rhamondre Stevenson 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Rhamondre Stevenson is expected to be the fantasy RB81. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB70 at pick 248, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 295 as of July. We currently expect 41 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 83) with a 2% share of team carries. We also expect a 4% target share which amounts to a projection of 21 targets (Rank 62) and 143 receiving yards (Rank 53).
He’s an absolute behemoth at 231 lbs and an 88th percentile BMI, but offseason reports also suggest the videos of him doing stuff in the pass game at Oklahoma could be translated to the NFL. So in summary, he’s a bruiser who can act like more than an early down Grinder. He’ll have to usurp Sony Michel and probably have some misfortune befall Damien Harris in order make an immediate fantasy impact. The combination of size and versatility is appealing, but at this juncture he’s not likely to yield a big time best ball pay day in the 2021 season. For now, he’s just a preseason DFS guy but we’ll keep an eye out.
Sony Michel 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Sony Michel is expected to be the fantasy RB59. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB72 at pick 253, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 217 as of July. We currently expect 398 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 48) with a 21% share of team carries. We also expect a 1% target share which amounts to a projection of 8 targets (Rank 81) and 48 receiving yards (Rank 80).
The ranking and projections shown above rely heavily on two unknowns: 1) Will Rhamondre Stevenson earn playing time over Michel and 2) Will Michel even be on the team if #1 comes to fruition? As of now Stevenson starts his rookie campaign on the Non-football injury list, which does increase Michel’s chances of sticking around or having the Patriots keep both. However, the writing is on the wall and his days are numbered. Fantasy owners are clearly not drafting Michel, expecting Damien Harris to ascend to early down top dawg status. The margin for being ranked 59 vs. 90th in our ratings is small, and you might as well consider him undraftable with a rank well below 200 overall.
Mac Jones 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Mac Jones is expected to be the fantasy QB34. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as QB32 at pick 236, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 210 as of July. We currently expect 2117 passing yards (Rank 32) and 12 passing touchdowns (Rank 34) during the 17 week fantasy season. We also expect 98 yards rushing (Rank 30) with a 5% share of team rush attempts.
The description of his work ethic this offseason already rivals the kind of things you’ve always heard about Tom Brady, and the 4500 yards and 45 touchdowns against upper level college competition suggests he has a real chance to be a legitimate pocket passing QB in the league. The profile is a stark contrast to incumbent starter Cam Newton, who struggles more with his accuracy and passing ability (particularly in recent seasons). Without word of a clear starting role, you can’t bet the farm on a massive rookie season. You can, however, watch the news closely and know that any ascension to the starting role could mean serious fantasy production for both him and his most capable skill players.