DFS Alerts
Chris Hogan won't play Week 12; Martellus Bennett isn't practicing Friday, Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are participating
Hogan (shoulder) hasn’t been able to practice all week and beat writer Jeff Howe reports he won’t play on Sunday. Brady is dealing with an Achilles issue but isn’t in danger of missing their upcoming matchup with the Dolphins. Without his favorite red zone target, Hogan, Brady should look for Gronkowski often in scoring position. He’s picked up four targets within the 20-yard line over the past two games but wasn’t able to find the end zone during that stretch. The Dolphins have struggled to contain tight ends this season; they’re 25th in DVOA while giving up the fourth-most touchdowns to the position (0.6/g) and the fifth-most PPR points to the position. Brandin has averaged 10.0 targets during Hogan’s absence and he should be in line for a nice volume boost again this week. Miami is giving up the eighth-most touchdowns to receivers (1.0/g) but the 13th-fewest PPR points as they funnel some production towards tight ends.
Other tagged players: Brandin Cooks, Rob Gronkowski, Tom Brady
Kelvin Benjamin won't practice Friday; Mike Tolbert ruled out for Week 12
Head coach Sean McDermott still considers Benjamin day-to-day and won’t rule him out for Sunday. At this point, Benjamin is doubtful after missing practice all week with a knee injury. Benjamin’s absence could open up targets for Jordan Matthews, who appears to be on track to suit up in Week 12. The slot receiver would have a seemingly terrific spot against the struggling Steven Nelson, who’s allowed 1.6 yards per cover snap (sixth-most if he qualified, per PFF) and two TDs in the slot since returning in Week 8. Zay Jones would benefit as well and should mostly avoid Marcus Peters. Last week, Phillip Gaines was the KC’s third CB and played outside. He’s given up 1.58 yards/cover snap while the other potential options, Kenneth Acker and Terrance Mitchell, have been worse – 1.75 and 2.15, respectively – and Mitchell has been charged with the 4th-most TDs (5) despite being benched after Week 7. Although Jones struggled to catch the ball in his first six games, hauling in just 22% of his targets, he’s reeled in 68% over the past three weeks. As a result, his yards per route run have jumped from 0.43 over the first six to 1.82 over the last three (per PFF), which would be good for 19th in the NFL this season. Jones has run 69% of his routes in the slot or on the opposite side of Peters, so he should have an exploitable spot most of the game. As a unit, KC is giving up the 2nd-most PPR points to WRs. He’s available for $4.0k on DraftKings this week.
Other tagged players: Zay Jones, Jordan Matthews He Was Good Last Week. He Can Be Even Better This Week.
When I am paying down or stacking the 49ers, I will be taking a long look at Celek. I love the potential of their game with the Seahawks and Celek has as good of a chance to succeed as any receiver on their team. He had four catches on six targets and a score last week, and the Seahawks defense is so banged up that, for the first time in years, I think they are a poor defensive team. If he can replicate his game from last week, I’d be happy with it, but I think he has potential to do even more.
This TE Makes For a Good Pivot Off the Chalk
Most of my TE exposure will be to Jack Doyle and Delanie Walker in that Colts-Titans game that I love so much, but I think Cook is an interesting pivot play. He may not seem like a value option, but he has a great spot and will go underowned because his price is similar to Doyle and Walker. Denver has a very good defense that has been lit up by TEs this season, as they allow the third-most fantasy points to the position. Cook has shown a good connection with Derek Carr and makes for a nice contrarian play at the TE position this week. He could outscore Doyle and Walker, and it would not surprise me in the least.
The Breakout Game is Coming - Get In Now Before It's Too Late
It was a tough call between Davis, Rishard Matthews, and Corey Coleman as to which WR I would write up here, but I think I am just going to be way overweight on the first round draft pick regardless of his potential ownership. It is impossible to ignore the targets he’s been getting, and the production should follow soon. This week he goes against a Colts defense that allows the fifth-most points to WRs. Like Dede Westbrook, I believe in this player and think he has a great future in the league. He has a breakout game coming and I believe it will be this weekend. I can see 100 yards with a couple scores, so he makes for a great GPP play.
He Didn't Get 200 Yards Last Week. This Week Maybe?
I wrote up Westbrook last week the day before the team announced they would limit his snaps. Keep an eye out for news announcing the same, but I am expecting a significantly higher workload this week for the future star. He’s excellent, and with Peterson on Marqise Lee, it opens up the rest of the field for Dede. We have seen what secondary receivers do to this Cardinals defense, as they allow the seventh-most fantasy points to receivers, and that’s with Peterson allowing essentially nothing. Play Dede! I wouldn’t be surprised if he sees double-digit targets, which makes his upside immense. He will line up in the slot and on the outside and can run off huge plays from either with his game-breaking speed. I’m guessing his ownership will be fairly high, so check with Chris Gimino’s ownership projections before pulling the trigger. As of now, he is my favorite value receiver on the board, and it isn’t close.
This QB May Go Overlooked in one of the Juiciest Matchups of the Week
My favorite game stack of this week will be the Titans and Colts game. While Mariota is my preferred QB from this game, Jacoby is the guy I’ll use most if I am looking to pay down at the position. He is currently in the concussion protocol but should be able to play. The matchup is much better than what the numbers may say, as the Titans have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL and have been fortunate with their schedule or the numbers would be even worse. These two teams played five weeks ago and Brissett wasn’t great, but this is a much better environment playing at home, on turf, where they have excelled. The Colts’ inability to run should force them to have to air it out, and I am interested in the upside this creates for Brissett. Expect the total in this game to continue to rise — I would pair Jacoby with Hilton and/or Doyle and run it back with Delanie Walker, Rishard Matthews, or Corey Davis in GPPs. I see the Colts QB as a safe play with plenty of upside.
Time To Smash
A big Rob Gronkowski week is coming at some point. He has failed as a chalk option in each of the last two games, both of which were favorable matchups for tight end production. That will likely have people scared off of him in Week 12, especially since he costs you a pretty penny. I’m definitely fine going back to the well against a bad defense. In addition, I don’t love the matchup for Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz this week, making Gronk the most logical spend at the tight end position if you have the salary available.
An Elite GPP Spot
I love this spot for LeSean McCoy in tournaments. Buffalo has gotten waxed in each of their last two games, and they should go with a run-heavy game plan this week to try and keep their poor defense off the field. The matchup is great for McCoy against a Chiefs rush defense that ranks as one of the worst in the league by almost any metric. McCoy should see the ball a ton in the first half, and he is a capable pass catcher as well. I think he has the potential to be one of the better point per dollar running back options on the board this week
The Old Man is Still Ticking
I generally don’t love rostering DeMarco Murray, but I will make an exception this week. Plus, someone already put in a write up about Corey Davis, so I couldn’t use him. In actuality, I will be overweight on virtually the entire Tennessee offense in Week 12. They have a get right matchup against a poor Indianapolis defense and check in as road favorites with a healthy team total north of 24 points. All the skill players are relatively cheap, too. As for Murray, he continues to play on about three-quarters of the offensive snaps, and it is apparent that they are going to ride him until he breaks. Until that happens, fire him up as a fine mid-range RB option.
Top Play in All Formats
The Seahawks have not had a running back top 60 rushing yards in a game since Chris Carson did so in Week 2. Russell Wilson has led the team in rushing in three of the last four games. In a word, Wilson IS the Seahawks offense right now. A date with a weak 49ers defense is on tap, and Wilson should be considered a top two quarterback option in all DFS formats. He’s a rock solid play with a high floor for cash games and a high ceiling for tournaments.
Sterling Shepard, CB Eli Apple, RT Justin Pugh, RG D.J. Fluker, and LB B.J. Goodson inactive Week 12; DT Damon Harrison, DE Olivier Vernon, and LB Jonathan Casillas will play
Shepard has been dealing with migraines and won’t be able to suit up tonight. Travis Rudolph will take over the slot role again while Roger Lewis would become the de facto number one wideout and Tavarres King gets a bump. Tight end Evan Engram already has a strong outlook against a Redskins defense giving up the most yards and fourth-most PPR points to tight ends and his market share should rise with Shepard out. The Giants are going to be thin on their line which is troubling considering they’ve already been charged with the sixth-most sacks and the Redskins rank ninth in adjusted sack rate. Fortunately for Orleans Darkwa, Washington isn’t as strong against the run; they’re currently placing 31st in adjusted line yards (per FO). With Apple out, Ross Cockrell will operate as the third CB. He’s allowed a 65% catch rate and 1.35 yards per cover snap (per PFF), which would be the 18th-most if he qualified. Cockrell played outside last week while Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie stuck in the slot; with Jamison Crowder operating inside, the Giants will probably employ a similar strategy.
Redskins LT Trent Williams inactive for Week 12
Williams played the past two games but won’t be able to suit up Thursday night against the Giants. With C Spencer Long and his backup, Chase Roullier, also out, the Redskins will be thin on their line once again. Washington listed many notable players as questionable heading into Thursday night although most were fully expected to play – Ryan Grant, Samaje Perine, and RG Brandon Scherff are all officially active. Jordan Reed was ruled out earlier this week, leaving Vernon Davis as Washington’s top tight end again. It’s a great matchup for him. A tight end has scored on the Giants in every game but one this season and they’ve allowed the third-most yards (75.2/g and fourth-most receptions (5.9/g) to the position. Davis has picked up five red zone targets over the past three games and he’s picked up 8.7 total looks per game during that stretch. He’s delivered an impressive 11.0 yards per target this season (for comparison, Rob Gronkowski averages 10.6 and Travis Kelce returns 8.9) and his 16.0 yards per catch leads all tight ends (13th overall).
Matt Forte didn't practice Thursday
It’s not a great start to the week for Forte following a bye – he hasn’t practice yet this week. He’s dealing with some swelling on his surgically-repaired knee which caused him to miss Week 10. If he remains out, Bilal Powell would likely start but he’d probably be in a timeshare with Elijah McGuire. The latter out-snapped the former 36-33 and out-touched him 12-11 last game. The duo has a tough matchup with the Panthers, whose defense is tenth in adjusted line yards (3.67, per FO) and holding RBs to the fourth-fewest PPR points.
Other tagged players: Bilal Powell, Elijah McGuire Cowboys LT Tyron Smith, RT La'el Collins, and K Dan Bailey active Week 12, Darren McFadden inactive
Collins was added to the injury report Tuesday with a back injury but he’s been able to practice in a limited fashion and will suit up Thursday afternoon. Smith’s return is definitely an important upgrade for the Cowboys. Over the past two weeks with Smith down, backup tackles Chaz Green and Byron Bell, have combined for 16 total pressures allowed (per PFF). Put together, that’s five more than any other tackle during that span. The Chargers present a tough challenge as they’re currently seventh in adjusted sack rate and eighth in pressure rate. Smith’s return will also provide an improvement on the ground; he’s currently PFF’s 27th-ranked tackle in run blocking. Alfred Morris handled 63% of the Cowboys running attempts last week and appears to have hold of a lead role, although he’ll continue to lose passing downs to Rod Smith. Morris was productive against one of the best run defenses last week, picking up 91 yards on 17 attempts. While the Eagles are first in adjusted line yards, the Chargers are 26th and the Bills ran all over them. As a team, they piled up 173 rushing yards and two scores on 22 attempts, although most of the game was garbage time. LeSean McCoy racked up 114 on 13 carries and found the end zone. As mentioned, Morris won’t have much involvement in the passing game, limiting his upside, but he could certainly pay off his $4.8k DK salary if game flow works in his favor. Although the Chargers found themselves as 2.5-point favorites yesterday, the line has moved in Dallas’ direction today; the Chargers are now favored by one point. Perhaps the primary concern with Morris is his ability to get in the end zone. While Dallas has converted the third-most red zone trips into touchdowns (62%), the Chargers defense is allowed the fewest touchdown conversions in the league (40%). Morris hasn’t scored yet this season and hasn’t attempted a single rush inside the ten-yard line despite playing two games without Ezekiel Elliott.
Other tagged players: Alfred Morris