DFS Alerts
Jay Cutler ruled out for Week 12, Matt Moore will start
Cutler remains in the concussion protocol and won’t be able to suit up this weekend. Per PFF’s Scott Barrett, when Matt Moore is under center, Stills has returned the fourth-most PPR points per route run over the past two seasons (0.53). He clearly benefited from Cutler’s absence last week and finished with a 7/8/180/1 line. The Patriots have allowed the third-most PPR points per game to receivers this season and the fifth-most over the past four weeks. Stills is expected to draw Malcolm Butler’s coverage most of the game. The CB has given up the fourth-most touchdowns (5) and a 62% catch rate this season. While New England has continued funneling a lot of production to receivers over the past four weeks, they’ve tightened up elsewhere and limited QBs to the fourth-fewest fantasy points overall.
Other tagged players: Matt Moore, Kenny Stills
Josh Bellamy and Danny Trevathan doubtful for Week 12; DL Akiem Hicks, DL Mitch Unrein, and LB Pernell McPhee are questionable
Dontrelle Inman and Dion Sims are both expected to play through questionable tags. Hicks was able to practice Friday after being sidelined all week with a knee injury while McPhee was absent from Friday’s session with his own knee issue. Hicks is PFF’s eighth-ranked interior defended in run defense and has the tenth-best run-stop rate at his position. Fellow interior defender Unrein is graded seventh in the area and has the third-best run-stop rate. The Bears run defense would certainly take a big hit if either or both of these guys end up inactive Sunday against the Eagles. Philly’s backfield has been effective since Jay Ajayi came to town but it’s a tough one in fantasy as they’ve given four different running backs touches over the past two games. Bellamy (concussion) has been operating as Chicago’s third receiver. His absence could elevate Tre McBride to that role this weekend.
Other tagged players: Dion Sims, Dontrelle Inman, Chicago Bears, Tre McBride John Brown ruled out for Week 12
This was expected as it was reported earlier this week that Brown would likely miss multiple games while he rehabs a toe injury. Jaguars CB Jalen Ramsey hurt his hand in practice Friday and told reporters he won’t be able to play against the Cardinals this week. It’s an obvious upgrade for Arizona’s outside receivers, Jaron Brown and J.J. Nelson, and quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Even so, the Jaguars are a strong unit and they shouldn’t crumble without Ramsey. Jacksonville currently ranks first in: yards per attempt (5.9), passer rating (64.5), sacks (40), and fantasy points allowed to QBs (9.92/g) and WRs (21.42/g). CB A.J. Bouye is PFF’s seventh-ranked cover corner and slot man Aaron Colvin is 31st. Bouye has held receivers to a 42% catch rate while Colvin has posted the sixth-fewest yards per cover snap (0.83, per PFF) when in the slot and he hasn’t been charged with a single touchdown. Gabbert will likely continue to lean on Larry Fitzgerald, who’s accounted for 31% of the team’s targets over the past three weeks but Colvin presents his toughest challenge since Carson Palmer went down. Tyler Patmon will likely see his significant snaps for the first time this season as the third corner; he’s earned poor marks over his career in limited playing time. It would make sense for Gabbert to try to pick on Patmon as much as he can when not throwing to Fitzgerald in the slot and Jaron Brown should see him the most.
Other tagged players: Jaron Brown, J.J. Nelson, Larry Fitzgerald QB Looks to Bounce Back Against Struggling Defense
Alex Smith and the Chiefs were rolling going into their bye last week, and expectations were high going into their matchup with the one-win Giants. The team proceeded to lay an egg in a 12-9 loss where high winds altered a number of passing attempts. The good news is that Alex Smith still attempted 40 passes in the game, and the better news is that the Chiefs draw their next matchup against a Buffalo defense that has allowed 101 points over their last two games. On the main slate, only Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Russell Wilson have more passing yards on the year than Alex Smith, yet Smith is only the 7th-most expensive QB on DraftKings at $6,500 and is only 8th on FanDuel at $7,600.
Allen Hurns ruled out for Week 12; LG Patrick Omameh and RT Jermey Parnell questionable
Hurns was inactive last week with an ankle injury. Keelan Cole served as the number two receiver with rookie Dede Westbrook working in as the third; both players received six targets and hauled in three catches. Considering it was Westbrook’s first game since being activated off the IR, it’s possible he picks up a bigger workload this weekend with Hurns out. The Jaguars visit the Cardinals on Sunday which could leave Marqise Lee under Patrick Peterson’s shadow. Although DeAndre Hopkins was able to get the best of Peterson on several plays, including a touchdown grab, it’s hard to trust Lee to replicate that type of success. Although a Peterson shadow would provide Westbrook a relatively better matchup with Tramon Williams, it’ll still be very challenging. Williams has earned PFF’s 15th-best cover grade while he’s limited receivers to a 48% catch rate, 0.75 yards per cover snaps, which would be ninth if he qualified, and he hasn’t given up a TD. Cole would see Tyrann Mathieu in the slot and have the best spot of the group – Mathieu is the 69th cover corner and he’s given up the ninth-most yards per cover snap when lined up inside (1.31).
Other tagged players: Dede Westbrook, Marqise Lee, Keelan Cole Danny Woodhead won't have a snap count Week 12
The running back only played 13 snaps last week but that was in part due to game flow as the Ravens shut out the Packers. He was very active when he was on the field, tallying six targets and a rushing attempt in just 13 plays. He’s supplanted Buck Allen as the passing down back ahead of their Monday night showdown with the Texans. While Houston has been poor against the pass in general, they’ve managed to stymie pass-catching backs. They’re currently fourth in receiving RB DVOA and holding the position to the third-fewest receptions (4.1/g) and fourth-fewest receiving yards (34.2/g). The Ravens are 7.0-point favorites in this contest.
JuJu Smith-Schuster ruled out for Week 12
Smith-Schuster’s hamstring injury was reportedly considered minor at the beginning of the week but he hasn’t been able to practice and he won’t play on Sunday. His absence will provide more snaps and targets for Martavis Bryant and Eli Rogers. Despite his issues and lost playing time, Bryant is 16th in the league with 14 targets 20+ yards downfield. However, he’s only pulled down one of those looks – and only two were catchable passes from quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. A year ago, Roethlisberger was 12th in deep-passing accuracy (43%, per PFF) and posted the eighth-best passer rating on those throws (110.4); this season, he’s 29th in accuracy (29%) and 26th in passer rating (55.2). He has a great spot to turn that around this weekend at home against a Packers pass defense that’s given up the seventh-most 20-yard plays (35) while allowing the fifth-most yards per attempt (7.7) and second-highest completion percentage (68.1%). Although Antonio Brown would be the biggest beneficiary if Roethlisberger improves his big-play performance as he leads the league with 32 targets 20+ yards downfield, Bryant should also reap some of the rewards with Smith-Schuster out. Bryant is available on FanDuel for $5.2k this week.
Other tagged players: Martavis Bryant, Eli Rogers, Ben Roethlisberger Kelvin Benjamin, Jordan Matthews, Charles Clay, and Deonte Thompson are questionable for Week 12
Benjamin seems closer to doubtful after missing practice all week while the others appear to be on track to play. Benjamin’s absence could open up targets for Matthews. The slot receiver would have a seemingly terrific spot against the struggling Steven Nelson, who’s allowed 1.6 yards per cover snap (sixth-most if he qualified, per PFF) and two TDs in the slot since returning in Week 8. Zay Jones would benefit as well and should mostly avoid Marcus Peters. Last week, Phillip Gaines was the KC’s third CB and played outside. He’s given up 1.58 yards/cover snap while the other potential options, Kenneth Acker and Terrance Mitchell, have been worse – 1.75 and 2.15, respectively – and Mitchell has been charged with the 4th-most TDs (5) despite being benched after Week 7. Although Jones struggled to catch the ball in his first six games, hauling in just 22% of his targets, he’s reeled in 68% over the past three weeks. As a result, his yards per route run rate jumped from 0.43 over the first six to 1.82 over the last three (per PFF), which would be good for 19th in the NFL this season. Jones has run 69% of his routes in the slot or on the opposite side of Peters, so he should have an exploitable spot most of the game. As a unit, KC is giving up the 2nd-most PPR points to WRs. Jones is available for $4.0k on DraftKings this week. While Charles Clay is the team’s leading receiver, he could have a challenging day at the office Sunday. The Chiefs are holding TEs to the third-fewest PPR points this season and Clay has only scored one touchdown on the road since joining the Bills in 2015 (18 games).
Other tagged players: Jordan Matthews, Deonte Thompson, Charles Clay Greg Olsen will play Week 12; C Ryan Kalil, C Tyler Larsen, and CB Captain Munnerlyn questionable
Olsen has been activated off the IR and the Panthers confirmed he will make his return this weekend against the Jets. Coach Ron Rivera said he looked “real good” in practice all week but added they would use the tight end “judiciously.” All reports seem to indicate he’s healthy and ready to go but he could still be limited in some capacity this week. He should benefit from Kelvin Benjamin’s departure. Back in 2015, Olsen averaged 14.3 PPR points per game while Benjamin was injured and he’s averaged 11.7 PPR points over the past two seasons with the receiver. The Jets aren’t strong against tight ends; they’re 23rd in DVOA and giving up the fourth-most touchdowns (0.6/g) and eighth-most PPR points to the position.
Rishard Matthews didn't practice Friday, will be a game-time decision Week 12
Matthews injured his hamstring in practice yesterday and may not be able to go this Sunday. His absence would open up snaps and targets for Corey Davis. The rookie receiver has had some efficiency problems this year, hauling in just 46% of his targets, but even with Matthews in the lineup, he’s still seen plenty of opportunities when healthy. He’s posted two games with 10 targets and picked up seven last week against a strong Steelers pass defense. He’ll have a much better matchup this week against a vulnerable Colts pass defense allowing the second-most touchdowns (1.5/g) and seventh-most PPR points to WRs. On top of that, Davis will mostly avoid their best corner, Rashaan Melvin, as he only lines up in Melvin’s area 34% of the time. Instead, he’ll mostly see Pierre Desir, who’s allowed two touchdowns in four starts and 1.73 yards per cover snap in those games (per PFF).
Other tagged players: Corey Davis Devonta Freeman ruled out for Week 12
Tevin Coleman will start in his place against a vulnerable Tampa Bay defense that will be without their top edge defender and one of their best run-stoppers, Robert Ayers. Coleman struggled against the Seahawks last week, averaging 2.2 yards per carry while only catching one pass, although he did find the end zone once. Fortunately, he’ll have a better matchup this time around. While the Seahawks are giving up the fifth-fewest PPR points to RBs, the Bucs are allowing the 11th-most, in part because they’re permitting the ninth-most rushing TDs (0.7/g) and the tenth-most eceiving yards (48.6/g) to the position. The Falcons are monster 10-point home favorites and implied to score the second-most points of the week (29.25), both positive signs for Coleman. His price predictably increased this week but he’s still an excellent value on DraftKings ($6.5k) and on FanDuel in particular where his $6.2k salary makes him the 14th-most expensive RB. He’s our top points-per-dollar RB on FD’s main slate and RB4 on DK.
Other tagged players: Tevin Coleman Matt Forte questionable for Week 12
He returned to practice Friday and is officially considered questionable. He’s dealing with some swelling on his surgically-repaired knee which caused him to miss Week 10. If he remains out, Bilal Powell would likely start but he’d probably be in a timeshare with Elijah McGuire. The latter out-snapped the former 36-33 and out-touched him 12-11 last game. The Jets backfield has a tough matchup with the Panthers, whose defense is tenth in adjusted line yards (3.67, per FO) and holding RBs to the fourth-fewest PPR points.
Other tagged players: Bilal Powell, Elijah McGuire Bengals S Shawn Williams ruled out for Week 12, CB Darqueze Dennard questionable
The Bengals could have a thin secondary against the Browns on Sunday as Williams and Dennard are both starters. Corey Coleman would see Dennard the most, so he stands to benefit if the corner is sidelined. He was impressive last week, pulling down 6-of-10 targets for 80 yards against Jacksonville, whose pass defense is the best in football. The Bengals are 14th in pass DVOA but eighth against WR1s and they’ve conceded the fifth-fewest PPR points to receivers. With the sheer lack of talent around him, Coleman should pick up plenty of targets though and he’s only $4.3k on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Corey Coleman Jaguars CB Jalen Ramsey says he won't play Week 12
Ramsey hurt his hand in practice Friday and told reporters he won’t be able to play in Jacksonville’s Week 12 matchup with the Cardinals. It’s an obvious upgrade for Arizona’s outside receivers, Jaron Brown and J.J. Nelson, and quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Even so, the Jaguars are a strong unit and they shouldn’t crumble without Ramsey. Jacksonville currently ranks first in: yards per attempt (5.9), passer rating (64.5), sacks (40), and fantasy points allowed to QBs (9.92/g) and WRs (21.42/g). CB A.J. Bouye is PFF’s seventh-ranked cover corner and slot man Aaron Colvin is 31st. Bouye has held receivers to a 42% catch rate while Colvin has posted the sixth-fewest yards per cover snap (0.83, per PFF) when in the slot and he hasn’t been charged with a single touchdown. Gabbert will likely continue to lean on Larry Fitzgerald, who’s accounted for 31% of the team’s targets over the past three weeks but Colvin presents his toughest challenge since Carson Palmer went down. Tyler Patmon will likely see his first significant snaps of the season as the third corner; he’s earned poor marks over his career in limited playing time. It would make sense for Gabbert to try to pick on Patmon as much as he can and Jaron Brown should see him the most.
Other tagged players: Blaine Gabbert, Jaron Brown, J.J. Nelson, Larry Fitzgerald Buccaneers DE Robert Ayers ruled out for Week 12
Ayers hasn’t been able to practice all week as he deals with a concussion. It’s a big loss for the Bucs defense as Ayers is PFF’s 12th-ranked edge defender this season. William Gholston is ready to return and he’ll mix in with Ryan Russell and Will Clarke in place of Ayers, all of whom represent notable downgrades in pass rushing productivity. Tampa Bay already ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate (per FO), so the loss of their top performer will bode well for Matt Ryan. On top of that, the Falcons offensive line has posted the ninth-best pass-blocking efficiency rate (per PFF). Ayers is a well-rounded player and he’s posted the ninth-best run stop rate among edge defenders. His absence should open things up for Tevin Coleman if Devonta Freeman (concussion) is sidelined again. TB has given up the 11th-most PPR points to RBs with Ayers playing in every game so far this year.
Other tagged players: Matt Ryan, Tevin Coleman