DFS Alerts
Terrelle Pryor didn't practice Thursday
Pryor has become a non-factor in the Redskins offense. Last week, he was out-snapped by Maurice Harris 41-28 after Ryan Grant went down with a concussion. Even if Grant, who’s been practicing this week, misses Week 11, Pryor could find himself as the fourth receiver. The Saints are fourth in pass DVOA and holding receivers to the sixth-fewest PPR points per game. Outside corners Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley have been excellent and converted safety Kenny Vaccaro has performed well in the slot. Vaccaro was absent last week with a groin injury though and collected a DNP today. If he remains sidelined, the Saints would have a soft spot inside. Jordan Matthews wasn’t able to take advantage of that last week as the entire Bills offense tanked, but Jamison Crowder has a shot to exploit the weakness. He’s come alive the past couple of games as he and Kirk Cousins have finally rekindled their 2016 chemistry, collecting 11 and 13 targets in those contests. P.J. Williams will be the primary slot defender for the Saints if Vaccaro can’t go. His 1.53 yards per cover snap would be the sixth-most if he qualified (per PFF) and he’s allowed a 71% catch rate. Crowder is just $4.3k on DK with projected ownership of 3%, making him an interesting GPP option. While it’s certainly risky targeting the Saints pass defense, Crowder should pick up a high number of targets for his price point.
Other tagged players: Jamison Crowder
Cowboys LT Tyron Smith won't play Week 11
Smith will reportedly miss his second game in a row. His absence proved to be detrimental to the Cowboys offense last week. His replacement, Chaz Green, was a complete disaster. Despite playing 67% of the passing snaps, he allowed a week-high four sacks and was benched. Byron Bell, who will start for Smith this weekend, came in for Green and promptly gave up two sacks in 14 passing snaps. Bell doesn’t appear to be an answer for this situation which is worrisome ahead of their showdown with the Eagles defensive front. The Eagles have the tenth-most sacks this season (25) and they’ve posted the fourth-most per game over the past three weeks (3.7). When under pressure this season, Dak Prescott is 27th in completion percentage (44.6%). That could cause problems for Dez Bryant, who’s only catching 50% of his targets as it is. The receiver is nursing knee and ankle injuries but he was able to play through them in Week 10 and is fully expected to do so this weekend. Although he’s only averaging 53.1 yards per game, he still brings plenty of scoring potential to the table. He’s fourth in the league with 14 RZ targets and he’s tallied nine looks inside the ten-yard line, which is good for second. That’s where his touchdown production comes from, all four of his scores are from inside the 20-yard line and three have come within ten yards of the goal line, so it’s crucial he continues to see a high volume of targets when Dallas is close to the end zone. With Ezekiel Elliott and Smith out and the Eagles boasting one of the best run defenses in the league, it’s a very good spot for Bryant to pick up opportunities where he’s most effective. So far this season, 70% of Philly’s opponents’ touchdowns have come through the air, the seventh-highest rate in the league. Given his scoring upside, he appears to be a decent GPP target on FanDuel’s main slate where we’re currently projecting just 5% ownership.
Other tagged players: Dak Prescott, Dez Bryant Eddie Lacy and S Earl Thomas expected to play Week 11
Lacy will make his return following a one-game absence with a groin injury. It’s not yet clear if he’ll be the starter again as he was in Week 9 but Thomas Rawls didn’t do anything last week to warrant a switch. They’ll take on a Falcons rush defense currently 18th in adjusted line yards and third in rushing touchdowns allowed to RBs (0.33/g). Even if Lacy gets the start, he’ll like lose some early-down work to Rawls and J.D. McKissic will pick up work in passing situations. On the season, Lacy is averaging 2.7 yards per carry. Even if he was getting a full workload, he wouldn’t be a reliable fantasy option. It’s probably best to continue avoiding this backfield. Thomas’ return is huge for the Seahawks. He’s PFF’s seventh-ranked cover safety and will provide an upgrade for their banged-up secondary. CB Richard Sherman is down for the year and S Kam Chancellor is in real danger of missing some time as he tends to a stinger. Matt Ryan hasn’t had any huge games but he’s been consistent. The QB is sixth in the league with 7.93 yards per attempt, fifth in completion percentage (66.6%), and he’s tossed multiple touchdowns in three straight games. Seattle has held quarterbacks to the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game this season but with their injuries could hinder their production. If Chancellor is out, it would make things much easier for Austin Hooper, who’s been a very reliable weapon for Ryan. He’s caught 76% of his passes and returned an impressive 9.3 yards per target. He’s second on the team with nine red zone looks and five chances inside the ten-yard line. At $3.4k on DK, Hooper would become a pretty appealing option if Chancellor can’t go – he’s already our TE3 in points-per-dollar projections on the site.
Other tagged players: Thomas Rawls, JD McKissic, Seattle Seahawks, Austin Hooper Corey Coleman activated from IR, expected to have full workload Week 11
Coach Hue Jackson said Coleman is healthy and will be out there this weekend against the Jaguars. It’s possibly the worst matchup a receiver can come back to considering how dominant Jacksonville’s pass defense has been. They’re first in yards per attempt (5.9), passer rating (65.9), and PPR points allowed to WR (21.69/g). On the bright side, Coleman was dealing with a hand injury, so he shouldn’t have had any issues staying in football shape while on the IR. Plus, the Browns are desperate for a competent receiver. With Kenny Britt injured and in the dog house for most of Coleman’s absence, Ricardo Louis has been the de facto WR1 but he hasn’t caught more than three passes over the past four games and he’s failed to find the end zone once this year. Britt managed to pick up 55 snaps last week and even scored once but he only added one other catch for 19 yards. Running back Duke Johnson continues to pace the team in receptions (42), targets (54), and receiving yards (358). It’s possible Johnson loses some looks with Coleman back. The receiver will primarily line up across from A.J. Bouye, who’s shut down pass-catchers this season, limiting them to a 41.7% catch rate and the ninth-fewest fantasy points per route defended (0.18, per PFF). Even so, given the sheer lack of talent, quarterback DeShone Kizer may force-feed Coleman targets on Sunday. The question will be how productive Coleman can be with his opportunities against an elite secondary in his first NFL game in two months.
Shadow Coverage Will Help Me
There are so many great top end tight end options this weekend, and it might be a really good week to run two tight ends on DraftKings. Everyone is scared to play tight ends against Arizona, but they’re allowing the tenth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. With Hopkins being shadowed by Peterson, and Will Fuller expected to miss the game, I think Fiedorowicz has a big game against Arizona. He returned from injury last weekend, and only caught two of his five targets. While that’s concerning, he was on the field for 63 of 68 snaps in that game, and I really like his upside in this matchup.
Jordan Reed will be a game-time decision Week 11
Reed has missed the past two games and could be sidelined again this weekend against the Saints. He hasn’t practice yet this week but he says he wants to see how he feels Sunday before a decision is made regarding his playing status. It’s arguably the hardest matchup for tight ends; New Orleans has limited the position to the fewest receptions (3.22/g) and yards (34.22) per game this season. If Reed suits up, he’ll likely be limited in some fashion. Should he remain out, Vernon Davis would continue to operate as their top tight end. Even with Jamison Crowder back in the lineup last weekend, Davis came away with 11 targets and pulled down seven for 76 yards. He’s been a reliable weapon for Kirk Cousins, catching 71% of his passes, and could continue to pick up opportunities even in a difficult spot. It’s also worth noting the Saints have had trouble defending tight ends where it really counts, they’ve conceded the sixth-most touchdowns to the position (0.56), signaling some low-key upside in a tough matchup for Davis, who racked up three red zone targets last week alone.
Other tagged players: Vernon Davis Play Me For My Workload
There has been a lot of talk about high priced running backs this weekend, and I feel like Todd Gurley is going overlooked yet again this weekend. He has a tough matchup against the Vikings, but this game has one of the highest totals on the slate. Gurley is going to be on the field a lot, and he’s going to get looks out of the backfield. They’re running the ball 31 times per game this season, which is the fourth most, and Gurley is averaging 19.1 carries per game, which is the fourth most. Gurley leads the NFL in goal line carries, and he’s second in red zone touches this season. The Rams are still leading the NFL in points per game this season, and they’re a team that continues to keep scoring when they’re up in football games.
Ty Montgomery and S Morgan Burnett aren't practicing Thursday
Montgomery is dealing with a ribs injury that’s been lingering for weeks and forced him from Week 10’s game early. It’s starting to look like he’ll miss Week 11 but we’ll have to see if he can practice tomorrow. If he’s out, Jamaal Williams would need to step up and would likely take on a monster workload. Rookie Devante Mays, who hasn’t logged a touch yet, would be his backup. The Ravens defense is giving up the third-most rushing yards (110.8/g) and ninth-most rushing scores (0.7/g) to RBs and the Packers will try to hide Hundley, potentially providing a ton of touches for their backfield. Plus, over Hundley’s three starts, Green Bay has scored five rushing touchdowns (two by Hundley) and two through the air. With Baltimore’s stout secondary heading to town, the Packers will likely need to score on the ground instead of relying on Hundley’s arm. Burnett missed last week due to a groin injury and could be out again. He moves all over the field but they like to use him in the slot and linebacker. His absence would be good for Baltimore’s tight ends and backs. It would also ensure slot receiver Jeremy Maclin lines up across from Damarious Randall most of the game The CB is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per route defended (0.37, per PFF). Maclin is coming off one of his best performances of the year against the Titans in which he caught eight passes for 98 yards. He’s seen targets of eight and nine in two of the past three games; he only saw five in the other one but the Ravens hardly threw the ball in that game because they blew out the Dolphins 40-0. With a rising market share in a favorable spot, Maclin could turn out to be a strong GPP play at $4.5k on DraftKings where we’re currently projecting 5% ownership.
Other tagged players: Jamaal Williams, Devante Mays, Jeremy Maclin, Green Bay Packers I'm Back and I've Taken Over
Since returning from injury, Rex Burkhead’s workload is trending in the right direction. He’s played 13, 27 and 36 snaps in the last three games, and he led all New England running backs in snaps last weekend. I love pass catching running backs against Oakland, and this spot reminds me a lot of the Chris Thompson spot from a few weeks ago. Oakland is 28th in DVOA against pass catching backs this season, and they’re in the bottom top against the pass and run. It’s always a guessing game when it comes to the pass catching backs for New England, but with the snaps increasing for Burkhead, he’s the guy I’m taking a shot on this weekend.
High Upside Pivot Off The Chalk
I love Tom Brady this weekend, and I love Derek Carr on the other side of that game. I’m expecting a lot of people to agree with me, and I expect both of them to be chalk this weekend. Alex Smith isn’t getting enough love this week, and he’s in a great spot against the Giants. The Giants have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in five of the last six games. C.J. Beathard threw for 288 and two passing touchdowns against the Giants last weekend. They’ve also allowed over 300 yards passing in five of the last six games. Smith has thrown at least one passing touchdown in every game this season, and I think he has three touchdowns upside in this matchup. He always gives you rushing upside as well.
Stone Cold Lock of the Week x2
Sterling Shepard was my lock of the week against the Niners and he came through with a solid outing, catching 11 of his 13 targets for 142 yards. The Giants are not an offense that I feel great about, but they are going to be playing from behind and their entire passing game is basically flowing through Shepard and Evan Engram. There are very few wide receivers that we can project to see double-digit targets this week, especially at Engram’s price point.
How do you not Load Up on this Offense?
The Giants have all but given up on their season and on their head coach. They are now ranked 29th in DVOA against the pass and 27th in DVOA against the run. The Chiefs will be able to attack them however they want this week. The fact that they are 10-point favorites bodes well for the running game. Kareem Hunt has been quiet, but he’s had a string of difficult matchups. He should see 20+ touches in a dream matchup against the Giants and I like his chances to score his first touchdown for the first time in six weeks. Kansas City wants to get their running game going heading into the final stretch of the season.
Strange Lineup Construction in Week 11
Over the course of a season, we tend to pay down at two positions — quarterback and tight end. Based on how this slate is shaping up, these are the two positions that I am looking to spend on. Tom Brady is in a smash spot this week against a Raiders’ defense that is ranked dead last in DVOA against the pass. The Patriots have the highest implied team total of the slate and it makes all the sense in the world for them to air it out this week in Mexico City. With the high altitude, both defenses could get gassed early, which plays right into the hands of a potential shootout between these two passing games.
Jordan Reed and LT Trent Williams aren't practicing Thursday
Reed has missed the past two games and could be sidelined again this weekend against the Saints. It’s arguably the hardest matchup for tight ends; New Orleans has limited the position to the fewest receptions (3.22/g) and yards (34.22) per game this season. If Reed suits up, he’ll likely be limited in some fashion. Should he remain out, Vernon Davis would continue to operate as their top tight end. Even with Jamison Crowder back in the lineup last weekend, Davis came away with 11 targets and pulled down seven for 76 yards. He’s been a reliable weapon for Kirk Cousins, catching 71% of his passes, and could continue to pick up opportunities even in a difficult spot. It’s also worth noting the Saints have had trouble defending tight ends where it really counts, they’ve conceded the sixth-most touchdowns to the position (0.56), signaling some low-key upside in a tough matchup for Davis, who racked up three red zone targets last week alone. Williams returned from a two-game absence last weekend after not practicing until Friday. It’s possible he follows a similar pattern this week. Washington was much healthier up front after battling injuries across the entire line for the past couple of games. Even so, they struggled against a Vikings defensive front that was without one of their most productive pass-rushers, Everson Griffen, conceding the second-most pressures of the week (18). Cousins hasn’t responded well to pressure this season, throwing the fourth-most interceptions when under duress (5). It won’t be any easier this week in New Orleans as the Saints have posted the third-best pressure rate this year (7.1%). They’ve also picked off the seventh-most passes (10). With New Orleans favored by eight points at home and the Redskins rolling with the ineffective Samaje Perine as their lead runner, Washington may need to abandon the run at some point and go pass-heavy. Not only would that make them predictable, but it would open up a lot of opportunities for sacks and picks for the Saints defense. They’re priced up on DraftKings this week as the fourth-most expensive option ($3.5k) but they’re 14th on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Washington Commanders Alex Collins will remain Ravens featured back Week 11
Terrance West and Danny Woodhead are both practicing this week and questionable for Sunday. Despite their potential returns to the field, offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg told reporters Thursday that Collins will keep his featured role this weekend against the Packers. The Ravens are road favorites and their stout secondary could overwhelm Brett Hundley and keep game flow in Collins’ favor. Green Bay is eighth in adjusted line yards (3.61) but they’re allowing the tenth-most rushing touchdowns to RBs (0.67/g) and the 13th-most rushing yards (99.33/g). Collins hardly gets any action in the passing game – three receptions all year – and Woodhead’s presence would further diminish the limited potential Collins has in the area. It would also be a big drag on Buck Allen’s production. Allen currently leads the team in targets and derives most of his fantasy production through his work in the passing game, so if Woodhead is expected to handle a decent workload, Allen would slip off the fantasy radar. If West is active, he could steal some early-down work from Collins, limiting Collins’ upside. It’s worth following this situation into the weekend as Collins may also lose his fantasy appeal if West plays despite his “featured” designation.
Other tagged players: Terrance West, Javorius Allen, Danny Woodhead