DFS Alerts
No Mikey, Me Likey
You might sense a trend if you are reading all my takes as there is one game I will be definitely targeting on Sunday. I wrote up the two QBs from this game and now am coming back with DJax. I love the potential game script here and with Mike Evans out of the way against a Jets defense that is 22nd in fantasy points allowed to receivers, I am expecting a breakout game from DeSean. He’s been solid this year but hasn’t had a monster game and I am betting on that happening this week. He’s actually been targeted more this year than he has in the past but hasn’t hit many big plays like he is known for. Jackson will be in a lot of my GPP lineups and is probably fine for cash games this week.
This QB Faces One Of The Worst Defenses And Should Be Underowned
While I love Ryan Fitzpatrick and the upside he offers this week, I am as interested in the QB on the other side of the field. He comes at an elevated price, which makes me think he will be extremely low owned this week. He’s oddly been one of the most consistent fantasy QB’s this season as he’s only posted one bad game. The upside may be capped somewhat for GPP’s, but he is facing a Bucs team that is one of the worst defenses in the NFL (30th overall) and one of the worst in fantasy points allowed to QBs (27th). It’s hard to pass on McCown here and I feel so safe with this play I think you could use it in cash games. I like stacking him with Anderson, Kearse, and/or ASJ and running it back with a receiver from the Bucs.
Paul Richardson and CB Richard Sherman officially active Week 10
As expected, Eddie Lacy and S Earl Thomas are inactive Thursday night and C.J. Prosise will play. Richardson will play through his questionable tag but he “could be limited some” according to Adam Schefter. Although he’ll likely avoid Patrick Peterson most of the game, the injury risk hinders his fantasy outlook. Doug Baldwin has the best matchup among Seattle’s receiver group against PFF’s 83rd cover corner, Tyrann Mathieu, who’s allowed the eighth-most yards per cover snap when lined up inside (1.36) and the seventh-most receptions (23). Russell Wilson has been firing Baldwin’s way a ton over the past three weeks, peppering him with 10-12 targets each game. There doesn’t seem to be much reason for that trend to end given the matchups the receivers will face tonight. Further elevating Baldwin’s ceiling is Wilson’s aggressiveness over the past few weeks. He leads the league in deep passes by a wide margin since Week 8 with 20 attempts while Matt Stafford is second with 13. Baldwin has attracted six of those, the fourth-most in the league during that span. On the season, he has the seventh-best deep-passing catch rate (40%) and the 12th-best yards per route run. Teammate Tyler Lockett is second over the past three weeks with eight looks 20+ yards downfield but if he’s stuck with Peterson, those looks could shift in Baldwin’s direction. Sherman was considered questionable with an Achilles injury but he’ll suit up tonight. Sherman has earned the third-best rating in our CB model, setting up the sixth-worst matchup rating of the week for receiver John Brown. It won’t help having Drew Stanton under center either. The quarterback has a career 6.3 yards per attempt rate, which would be 27th in the league this season. Plus, he’s only completed 52.6% of his passes and Brown has had some serious efficiency problems the past two years, hauling in just 49.1% of his targets (38.9% this season), while primarily catching passes from a much better QB in Carson Palmer.
Other tagged players: Seattle Seahawks, Doug Baldwin, John Brown
Saints DB Kenny Vaccaro and LT Terron Armstead didn't practice Thursday
Vaccaro was held out of the second half of Week 9’s game after he tweaked his groin. He’s moved from safety to slot corner this season and he’s done well. Since Week 4 (his second game as a full-time slot CB), Vaccaro is eighth in yards per cover snap when lined up inside (0.83) and seventh in cover snaps per reception (12.8). That sets up a challenging matchup for Jordan Matthews this weekend if the corner is able to suit up. Armstead has earned PFF’s 23rd pass blocking grade among tackles. As a unit, the Saints line has been charged with the second-fewest pressures and fourth-fewest sacks (per PFF). They take on the Bills this weekend, whose offensive line ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate.
Julio Jones didn't practice Thursday
Jones is dealing with an ankle injury that’s prevented him from practicing this week. He’s still expected to suit up on Sunday but he’ll likely need to return to the practice field tomorrow to do so. If he’s able to play, he’ll have an exploitable matchup with Cowboys CB Jourdan Lewis. Our WR/CB matchup tool gives him the eighth-best rating this week. As a unit, Dallas is 19th in WR1 DVOA and they’ve given up the sixth-most PPR points to receivers. Jones has picked up the tenth-most targets inside the ten yard line (5) and Dallas is allowing a touchdown on 56% of their opponents’ red zone trips, the 14th-highest rate.
Patriots CB Stephen Gilmore removed from injury report, Chris Hogan didn't practice Thursday
Gilmore missed the past three games with a concussion. He’s all set to return this weekend against the Broncos and he should have his hands full with Demaryius Thomas. Although the Patriots are 29th in pass DVOA and 30th against WR1s, Gilmore has posted decent numbers. He’s 16th is cover snaps per reception (15.4, per PFF) and 28th in yards per cover snap (0.93). Although he’s only been targeted 19 times, he’s permitted a 68.4% catch rate. Thomas logged a team-high 12 last week while Emmanuel Sanders finished second with five, picking up his 2015 trend of being Brock Osweiler’s favorite receiver. Hogan injured his shoulder late in Week 8’s game and is looking doubtful for this weekend’s matchup with the Broncos. If he can’t go, it would open up snaps for Danny Amendola and Phillip Dorsett and should provide more targets for Brandin Cooks and Rob Gronkowski. Gronk has hit double-digit targets in three games this season and he’s found the end zone five times. It’s already a solid spot for him with the Broncos allowing the third-most PPR points to TEs, so the added volume would be very welcome. Gronkowski is currently second among tight ends with 2.11 yards per route run (per PFF), a number that’s better than all but seven wide receivers. Despite a hefty price tag, Gronk currently projects in our top six points-per-dollar TEs on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Chris Hogan, Demaryius Thomas Buccaneers CB Brent Grimes practiced Thursday
It was his second practice in a row and he was a full participant today, indicating he’s set to make his return from a two-game absence this weekend when the Bucs face the Jets. He’s allowed a 66% catch rate and 1.28 yards per cover snap this season which would be the 18th-most if he had enough snaps to qualify. He’ll primarily battle Robby Anderson, setting up a nice spot. As a unit, the Bucs are 31st in pass DVOA and giving up the second-most PPR points to WRs.
Other tagged players: Robbie Chosen T.Y. Hilton limited Thursday
Hilton was downgraded to a limited practice Thursday due to a groin injury. If he’s able to play this weekend, he’ll have a tough matchup with the Steelers, whose defense ranks fifth in pass DVOA (per FO) and has limited receivers to the second-fewest PPR points per game. He’ll mainly line up across from Joe Haden, who’s posted the fifth-best yards per cover snap since Week 2 (0.57, per PFF). When he slips into the slot, he’ll see Mike Hilton, who’s allowed the third-fewest yards when lined up inside among full-time slot CBs (96). With the added injury risk, it may be best to not chase his big game against a much weaker Texans pass defense.
Bengals K Randy Bullock didn't practice Thursday
Bullock was inactive last week and it appears is back injury will keep him sidelined again this weekend. If he’s out, Marshall Koehn will take over the kicking duties. Both players are available for the minimum on FanDuel but the Bengals have a low implied total (18) and have attempted the fewest field goals this season (10).
Other tagged players: Marshall Koehn Patriots claimed Martellus Bennett off waivers
Bennett is still dealing with a shoulder injury, so it’s not clear when he’ll be ready to suit up for New England. It should be a relatively smooth transition considering Bennett was with the Patriots a season ago. He hauled in 55 receptions for 701 yards and a career-high seven scores with them in 2016.
Kenny Golladay and LT Greg Robinson limited Thursday
Golladay hasn’t logged a snap since Week 3 but this could be the week he finally returns. He was on track to play Week 8 prior to suffering a mid-week setback. If he’s able to get on the field, he’ll man the WR3 role but will likely be limited in some capacity and lose some plays to T.J. Jones. If Golladay is ultimately ruled out, it would set up an interesting spot for T.J. Jones as Marvin Jones will likely be stuck under Jason McCourty’s shadow and Golden Tate will matchup with Briean Boddy-Calhoun in the slot, both of whom are among the top 12 cover corners by PFF grading. That leaves T.J. with Jamar Taylor, who’s allowed the fifth-most yards per cover snap (1.58, per PFF) and the third-highest passer rating (123.6). If Golladay suits up, it muddles things because of his potential limitations in his first game back.
Other tagged players: TJ Jones Volatile WR Could Break Out at Bargain Price This Sunday
Perhaps no Wide Receiver has a wider range of outcomes this week than Pittsburgh’s Martavis Bryant. Coming off of a week suspension by the team and seemingly sparring with the coaching staff and his teammates all season, Bryant enters Week 10 with only 234 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown on the year. This is a player with undeniable talent, however, who put up 14 receiving touchdowns and 1,314 receiving yards in 21 games from 2014-2015. He’s also reportedly practicing with the first team offense this week and facing one of the worst pass defenses in the league in Indianapolis this week. Priced at only $3,900 on DraftKings and $5,100 on FanDuel, Bryant has as sky-high ceiling and a rock bottom floor this Sunday.
Overlooked WR Could Be Team's Leading WR on Sunday
Robert Woods exploded for two touchdowns last Sunday, and it seemed like a performance that came out of nowhere with the Wide Receiver only averaging 5 receptions and 65 yards over his previous three games. It’s worth considering, however that Woods was facing Arizona, Jacksonville, and Seattle in those games, three teams with major talent in their secondary. This week, Woods is facing Houston, a team whose pass defense has been faring worse recently allowing large yardage totals to Indianapolis and Seattle over the past two weeks. Woods leads the Rams with 49 targets, 31 receptions, and 451 receiving yards, yet he is cheaper than teammate Sammy Watkins on FanDuel at $6,200, and only $200 more expensive on DraftKings at $5,000, making Woods a potentially overlooked bargain this weekend.
Ezekiel Elliott will serve six-game suspension
Elliott’s motion for an injunction was denied by the Second Circuit Thursday, meaning his suspension will be reinstated. The ban will begin immediately and he’ll miss the Cowboys’ Week 10 matchup with the Falcons. Alfred Morris is expected to start in his place with Darren McFadden and Rod Smith working in behind him. Although they’ll begin with a committee approach, it’s possible Morris or McFadden seizes control of the backfield and secures the feature role while Zeke is sidelined. The general consensus among beat writers is that McFadden has the best shot to do so based on his three-down skill set. He’s been inactive all season, so he’s fresh heading into his first game of the year. He only appeared in three contests last year but back in 2015, before Elliott arrived in Dallas, McFadden racked up 1,089 rushing yards and added 40 catches for 328 yards. His ability to produce as a receiver is an advantage this week as the Falcons rank 22nd in receiving RB DVOA and have allowed the most receptions to the position this season (6.7/g). They’re also 21st in adjusted line yards, which could enable Morris to get in a groove early though. Fortunately for McFadden, game flow could turn in his favor. The Cowboys were three-point road dogs before the Elliott news hit and the spread should widen. However, it’s possible he’ll lose some of the receiving work to Smith, potentially limiting his market share/ceiling. It’s definitely a backfield to watch but targeting any one of them will be risky in DFS this week as it’ll be tough to predict volume distribution in Dallas’ first game without Elliott.
Other tagged players: Darren McFadden, Alfred Morris Cowboys LT Tyron Smith isn't expected to play Week 10
Smith, the 13th-ranked tackle in pass protection (per PFF), is dealing with a groin injury which will likely keep him sidelined on Sunday against the Falcons. He was replaced by Chaz Greene after suffering the injury in Week 9. Greene is 48th in the pass blocking and is a clear downgrade for the Cowboys. Even so, Atlanta is just 25th in adjusted sack rate (per FO) and only came away with one sack against Carolina’s 24th-ranked offensive line in pass blocking efficiency.
As reported by: Jane Slater