DFS Alerts
Alfred Morris expected to start for Cowboys Week 9
A source informed reporter Jen Slater that Morris will get the nod this Sunday. Dallas is still expected to employ a committee with Darren McFadden and Rod Smith in their first game without Ezekiel Elliott this season. It will be McFadden’s first game of the season and he could be eased in. Cowboys beat writer Mike Fisher reported that Smith could be ahead of him this week but it looks like McFadden could end up leading the group in touches by the end of the six-week period. It’s not a great situation to target in fantasy this weekend despite a favorable matchup with the Chiefs, currently ranking 31st in rush DVOA. On top of the workload split, Dallas could see a decline in their ground game without Elliott, forcing them to the air more often than normal. Fortunately for receiver Dez Bryant, the Chiefs are 20th in pass DVOA and they’re giving up the second-most PPR points per game to receivers. Bryant hasn’t hit 100 receiving yards all season and he’s only topped 63 once but he should have a great spot this weekend to turn things around. He’s only run 26% of his routes where CB Marcus Peters lines up and the Cowboys may make a point to avoid the matchup. That likely leaves him with Kenneth Acker, who replaced Terrance Mitchell, for most of the game. Acker wasn’t great in his first start of the season, he allowed a 5/69/0 line on seven targets, coming in at 11th on the week in yards per cover snap (1.68). Whether it’s Mitchell or Acker, Bryant should have the advantage on Sunday and may have a volume boost headed his way – and he’s already averaging 9.1 targets per game.
Other tagged players: Darren McFadden, Rod Smith, Dez Bryant
Andrew Luck will be placed on IR
The Colts have decided to shut down Luck for the season as his shoulder continues to ail him. That leaves Jacoby Brissett under center for the rest of the year. In Week 9, he’ll face a Texans pass defense that was destroyed by Russell Wilson in Week 8 for 452 passing yards and four scores. While corner Jonathan Joseph has been solid, earning PFF’s tenth-best cover grade, the Texans are also using Kareem Jackson (93rd) and Kevin Johnson, who would have the worst grade in the league if he qualified. On the season, they’re allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and with the help of Wilson, they’ve allowed the most over the past four weeks. That sets up an interesting buy-low spot for Brissett. Although he’s only thrown two touchdowns in one game, he’s posted three multi-score outsings with help from his feet. He has three rushing touchdowns this season and his ability to produce on the ground adds to his floor. On DraftKings, Brissett will cost $5.2k and we’re projecting 2% ownership. With Deshaun Watson reaching $8.1k this week, Brissett is an affordable way to get exposure to this game which currently has the highest total on the board (51.5) after getting pushed up from it’s 48-point open.
Other tagged players: Jacoby Brissett Albert Wilson won't practice Thursday
Wilson is rehabbing a hamstring issue, it’ll be his second absence in a row. The receiver hasn’t seen more than four targets in a game and only picked up two in his first full game without Chris Conley, so his absence won’t shift a ton on this offense. It would be a slight boost for Demarcus Robinson, who may be a sneaky GPP option in Week 9. Despite leaving Week 8’s game briefly to be evaluated for a concussion, Robinson played 51-of-62 snaps and he led the Chiefs receivers in snaps in Weeks 6 and 7. Although he ended up logging just two targets last week, he had a tough matchup with Denver. This weekend, he’ll battle Anthony Brown and Jourdan Lewis of the Cowboys, who have allowed four (fifth) and three touchdowns (ninth), respectively. As a unit, Dallas is 25th in WR2 DVOA and have allowed the third-most passes to the position (7.5, per FO). In Week 7, Robinson logged eight targets against a similarly weak Raiders defense (23rd in WR2 DVOA) and turned them into five catches for 69 yards. Robinson has seen as many as three red zone targets in a game this year, showing the Chiefs are willing to use him in scoring position. He’s certainly a risky, low-floor play, but at $3.2k on DraftKings he may be worth a look in tournaments in this spot.
Other tagged players: Demarcus Robinson Dolphins will use two-man RB committee Week 9
This was the expected approach following the Jay Ajayi trade. On the bright side, they aren’t considering their third back, Senorise Perry, a part of the committee. Ajayi struggled to be productive in this offense, running behind the 31st offensive line in adjusted yards (3.15, per FO), and he was in a workhorse role with 23+ carries on four occasions. That makes these running backs in a timeshare unappealing in fantasy. On top of the general failure to successfully establish a ground game, the Dolphins are scoring the fewest points per drive in the NFL (1.12) – Ajayi hasn’t scored yet this season. Reporters covering the team seem to think Drake will start and have the edge on the early down work while Williams takes more of the passing down snaps. It’s definitely possible one of them gets a hot hand and eats into the other’s role or establishes themselves as the team’s featured option like Ajayi did last season. However, that’s just something worth keeping an eye on. Even in a favorable matchup with the Raiders, whose defense is allowing the ninth-most PPR points to RBs this season while ranking 23rd in rush DVOA, it looks like a backfield to avoid. The Raiders have been poor against the pass too, ranking 32nd in DVOA, but that hasn’t translated into a ton of fantasy production – they’ve allowed the 15th-most fantasy points to QBs. Both DeVante Parker and Jarvis Landry will have exploitable spots. Parker will likely see David Amerson the most, who would have the highest yards per cover snap rate (2.22) if he qualified. Landry is expected to battle T.J. Carrie in the slot. Although he’s earned PFF’s 36th cover grade, he’s allowing the sixth-most yards per cover snap out when lined up inside (1.55) and has posted the second-worst cover snaps per reception rate (6.4). While it’s normal to see elevated catch rates from slot corners, Carrie’s 77% is still appealing for target-monster Landry. The receiver is averaged 11.4 looks per game and hit double-digits in all but one game. Parker’s return could potentially eat into that volume but he was a full go in three of those outings and averaged 9.0 targets himself. It looks like those two are the top targets on the Dolphins this week.
Other tagged players: Damien Williams, Jay Cutler, Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker Bargain WR Gets Upgrade This Weekend
The entire Seattle offense should get an upgrade this weekend with the acquisition of tackle Duane Brown, and one overlooked beneficiary could be receiver Paul Richardson. Although Richardson’s 36 targets on the year are less than teammates Doug Baldwin (61 targets) and Tyler Lockett (39 targets), Richardson has made the most of his opportunities with 374 yards (only 56 behind Baldwin) and 5 touchdowns (most on the team). Seattle has the third highest projected point total this week in their matchup with Washington, and Richardson’s price makes him appealing at $5,800 on FanDuel and $4,700 on DraftKings (over $2,000 less than Baldwin).
Cole Beasley will return to practice Thursday
Beasley is in the concussion protocol. He only played 48% of the team’s snaps over the past five games and he hasn’t topped 33 yards all season. Whether he plays or not, the Cowboys will probably try to employ a run-first approach with Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris. However, as much as the Cowboys would prefer to control the game with their ground attack, if Ezekiel Elliott is officially suspended, they may need to go to the air more often which would open up more looks for Dez Bryant. The receiver hasn’t hit 100 receiving yards all season and he’s only topped 63 once. Overall, he’s had a tough schedule so far this season though. Fortunately for him, he’ll have a better one next Sunday against the Chiefs. He’s only run 26% of his routes where Peters lines up and the Cowboys may make a point to avoid the matchup. That likely leave him with Kenneth Acker, who replaced Terrance Mitchell this past weekend, for most of the game. Acker wasn’t great in his first start of the season, he allowed a 5/69/0 line on seven targets, coming in at 11th on the week in yards per cover snap (1.68). Whether it’s Mitchell or Acker, Bryant should have the advantage on Sunday. As a unit, the Chiefs are 20th in pass DVOA and they’re giving up the second-most PPR points per game to receivers.
Other tagged players: Dez Bryant Sterling Shepard is practicing again Thursday, several other Giants still sidelined
Shepard is on track to play make his return this weekend following a two-game absence due to an ankle injury. It’ll be Shepard’s first game as the Giants top receiver. If he remains in the slot, he’ll have one of the tougher matchups against Rams CB Nickell Robey-Coleman. Although he’s 30th in PFF cover grades, he’s allowing the second-fewest yards per cover snap when lined up inside (0.47) and he’s posted the fifth-best cover snaps per reception rate (13.3). So far this season, quarterbacks have targeted his coverage just 14 times, the third-fewest among qualifying slot corners. Overall, the Rams are holding receivers to the seventh-fewest PPR points. It won’t get much easier for tight end Evan Engram as he’ll face a defensive unit giving up the fourth-fewest PPR points to his position. Based on fantasy production allowed, the Rams have become a major run-funnel unit. Only San Francisco is permitting more PPR points to RBs and they’re tied with the Colts for the most rushing touchdowns per game (1.0/g). Unfortunately, the Giants backfield is a bit murky. Last week Wayne Gallman led the group in snaps but logged just 22 while Orleans Darkwa (21) and Shane Vereen (16) were close behind and Darkwa out-touched Gallman 12 to 7. Darkwa should get the first crack to establish the hot hand but they’ll likely end up employing a committee, making it hard to trust this group in a very favorable spot. The Giants had several notables not practicing again today: LB BJ Goodson (ankle), RT Justin Pugh (back), C Weston Richburg (concussion), DE Olivier Vernon (ankle), and DE Kerry Wynn (knee). Wynn has been filling in for Vernon for the past few games, if neither player can go this weekend the Giants would be thin on the edge.
Other tagged players: New York Giants Marqise Lee isn't expected to practice Thursday
Lee is still dealing with a knee injury, it’ll be his second missed practice in a row. Rookie Dede Westbrook is off the IR and he’s expected to have a role right away. Should Lee end up missing this game, it could be bigger than originally anticipated. He’ll have a tough matchup though, the Bengals are allowing the fourth-fewest PPR points to receivers. Plus, the Jaguars are running the ball more than any other team (53%), limiting his potential volume. Running back Leonard Fournette is practicing today, he’s fully expected to return from a one-game absence due to an ankle injury. Cincy’s defense is tenth in rush DVOA but 28th in adjusted line yards (4.57, per FO). They have the best red zone defense in the league this year, allowing a touchdown on just 33% of trips inside the 20-yard line. As a result, they’ve given up the third-fewest rushing touchdowns to RBs this season (0.3/g). While the overall numbers have been solid, they’re adjusted line yards indicates they may be performing over their heads a little bit, potentially opening up a better-than-it-looks spot for Fournette. As a team, the Jaguars offense is 11th in adjusted line yards. Before taking a week off, Fournette delivered the two best games of his career in Weeks 5 and 6, scoring three touchdowns while picking up 322 total yards. The ankle injury is a bit of a concern as it’s something that bothered him throughout his final season at LSU and has been characterized as a chronic problem. Still, the Jaguars believe the two weeks off served him well and will try to feed him as much as they can on Sunday. The Jaguars are currently 4.5-point home favorites.
Other tagged players: Leonard Fournette, Dede Westbrook This Cheap RB Has Big Tourney Upside
Although the Giants have not yet committed to the run as fully as I would have expected, they have had two weeks to prepare for a Rams defense that ranks third in pass defense DVOA but 17th in run defense DVOA (while ranking 27th in yards allowed per rush attempt). The way to attack the Rams is on the ground, and with the Giants missing Brandon Marshall and Odell Beckham, it makes sense for them to lean on the running backs more heavily. Paul Perkins is healthy as well, and the Giants incredibly have only one game this year in which a single running back received more than 11 carries; that makes this a risky (tourney-only) spot, but if Darkwa sees the 18+ touches he has earned, he could pay off in a big way.
Enormous Upside At A Cheap Price Tag
Sammy Watkins has had one of the most difficult cornerback schedules in the NFL this season, taking on Washington (who has allowed the third-fewest receptions to wide receivers), Seattle, Jacksonville, and Patrick Peterson. This week, Watkins takes on a Giants team that ranks 22nd in DVOA against the pass and 19th in yards allowed per pass attempt, and that will be missing top perimeter corner Janoris Jenkins (suspension). Watkins quietly ranks eighth in the NFL in average depth of target, and while he still carries a low floor (as shown throughout this season), he also carries enormous upside at a cheap price tag in this matchup.
Change In Offensive Focus Could Benefit This QB
With an Over/Under of 51 and a close point spread, the Kansas City – Dallas game has the best potential of any game to turn into a shootout this weekend. While the Cowboys back-up running backs have drawn the headlines as the biggest upgrades from the Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension this week, we shouldn’t overlook the fact that Dak Prescott has averaged the second most FanDuel points and the third most DraftKings points among QBs this season. The Chiefs pass defense has been mediocre this year allowing 261 passing yards per game (28th in the league) and Prescott should be an excellent point-per-dollar-option this weekend.
Overlooked QB Could Be In Shootout This Weekend
Alex Smith is second in the league in average DraftKings points this season and third in average FanDuel points, but he is only sixth and fifth respectively in salary at the position this week. Smith is one of only five quarterbacks starting this Sunday to average at least two throwing touchdowns per game this season, but incredibly the Kansas City QB is the only one of those five who has yet to throw an INT. Three games this weekend have an over/under over 45, but of those game, only the Chiefs – Cowboys is projected to be close, increasing the possibility of a shootout. Smith often gets overlooked because of his tendency to minimize risks, but with his low salary and the possibility of a high point total in Dallas this week, he could be a winning choice this Sunday.
Veteran QB Gets Major Upgrade To Offensive Line
Although rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson has grabbed the headlines and the top price on FanDuel and DraftKings after the Seattle – Houston offensive explosion last weekend, for a discount off the top price, Russell Wilson is looking mighty appealing this Sunday. Wilson is second in the league in passing yards per game this season, and over the past five games Wilson has averaged an incredible 329.2 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, and 27.6 FanDuel points (29.4 DraftKings points) per game. Seattle has the third highest implied point total this weekend, and just made a major upgrade to their offensive line with the acquisition of tackle Duane Brown. There is a good chance Wilson can turn that increased protection into even more fantasy points in his showdown with Washington on Sunday.
49ers will start C.J. Beathard Week 9; Pierre Garcon didn't practice Wednesday
The 49ers aren’t going to rush Jimmy Garoppolo onto the field, they’ll wait until he’s comfortable with the playbook. Beathard hasn’t been good over the past three games. He’s posted a 22.5 QBR and despite throwing at least 36 times in each game, he’s only averaged 215.7 yards per game (5.9 ypa) with two total touchdowns to three interceptions. San Francisco’s line is very banged up and they’ve already allowed the fifth-most pressures this season (107, per PFF). Last week, Beathard was under pressure on a ridiculous 60% of his throws. Although the Cardinals, their Week 9 opponent, only rank 29th in adjusted sack rate (per PFF), they could still find success against this 49ers unit. If Pierre Garcon (neck) plays, he’ll likely be shadowed by Patrick Peterson, limiting his upside in fantasy and what he can do for Beathard. Peterson is the top cornerback in both yards per cover snap (0.32) and cover snaps per reception (36.9). If Garcon is out, it’ll provide more snaps/opportunities for Marquise Goodwin, Trent Taylor, and Aldrick Robinson, although Goodwin is at risk of being chased by Peterson. As a team, the Cardinals are 11th in pass DVOA but they’re giving up the fourth-most PPR points to receivers. That’s in large part due to Justin Bethel, who’s been charged with a league-high six touchdowns and the second-most yards. He was benched last game in favor of Tramon Williams. Although Williams didn’t give up a score, he wasn’t good, the corner was responsible for six catches and 62 yards on eight targets against the Rams. Goodwin may be better off if Garcon plays while Robinson would be an appealing value option if Garcon sits.
Other tagged players: Pierre Garcon, Marquise Goodwin, Aldrick Robinson, Trent Taylor Jay Ajayi may not be active Week 9
Coach Doug Pederson wouldn’t commit to dressing Ajayi this Sunday against the Broncos. The runner just joined the team and needs to learn the system before he can carve out a sizable role. If Ajayi does end up playing, he’ll likely pick up a limited workload against the best rush defense in the NFL in terms of DVOA (per FO). They’re second in adjusted line yards and they’re holding RBs to the fewest PPR points per game. If he sits this one out, LeGarrette Blount, Wendell Smallwood, and Corey Clement could all earn touches. It looks like a backfield to avoid this weekend.
As reported by: Daily Times Sports Other tagged players: LeGarrette Blount, Wendell Smallwood, Corey Clement