DFS Alerts
Danny Amendola and Dont'a Hightower aren't practicing Wednesday; CB Stephon Gilmore returned
Gilmore appears to be on track for a Week 8 return following a two-game absence with a concussion – it’s good news for the Patriots considering fellow corner Eric Rowe remains sidelined. He’s been much more effective than his counterpart, Malcolm Butler. While Butler has been targeted 41 times and ranks 43rd in cover snaps per reception, Gilmore has only seen 19 passes thrown his way and is 14th in cover snaps per reception. Hightower exited Week 7 early with an ankle injury, we’ll have to see if he can get back on the field by Friday. Amendola doesn’t have a known injury at this time, he could be receiving a rest day.
Other tagged players: New England Patriots, Keenan Allen
DeVante Parker, DT Jordan Phillips, and LT Laremy Tunsil questionable for Week 8; Jay Cutler and LG Anthony Steen ruled out
Parker appears to be headed for a game-time decision Thursday night. If he plays, he’ll have a difficult matchup with the Ravens, whose defense has held receivers to the second-fewest PPR points this season. Parker will have Matt Moore throwing to him with Jay Cutler out. In four starts last season, Moore averaged 240.8 yards and 2.25 touchdowns while completing 68.6% of his passes. He’ll have a very tough matchup with the Ravens though; they’ve limited QBs to a 70.6 passer rating (third), 55.2% completion rate (second), and the fourth-fewest fantasy points. In those four starts, Parker averaged a 3.5/5.75/50.5/0.25 line while Moore showed a better connection with Jarvis Landry, providing him a 6.5/9.0/78.75/0.5 average. Landry has been a target monster all year, picking up double-digit targets in all but one outing this season, and that should continue Thursday night with or without Parker. He’ll also have the better individual matchup with Baltimore’s primary slot CB, Ladarius Webb. When lined up inside, Webb, PFF’s 104th-ranked cover corner, has allowed the most yards per cover snap (2.25). Meanwhile, Parker will battle outside CBs Jimmy Smith and Brandon Carr, who’ve held receivers to 0.47 (5th) and 0.83 (21st) yards/cover snap, respectively.
Other tagged players: Jarvis Landry, Matt Moore, Jay Cutler, Miami Dolphins Stefon Diggs and Michael Floyd are practicing Wednesday; Sam Bradford isn't participating
Diggs will try to make his return this week following a two-game absence. Bradford isn’t expected to play in Week 8, likely leaving Case Keenum under center. However, The Vikings haven’t ruled out Teddy Bridgewater yet and he’s practicing today. If Diggs is able to suit up, he could be shadowed by Jason McCourty which presents a difficult matchup on the surface. The cornerback is having a renaissance year in Cleveland after a few down seasons and finishing in the bottom-18 in yards per cover snap and cover snaps per reception with the Titans in 2016. In 2017, he’s found himself as PFF’s third-ranked cover corner, although that grade may be a bit inflated due to his three interceptions – great production in real life, but worse for QBs than WRs in fantasy. In terms of receiver production, he’s 35th in yards per cover snap and 39th in cover snaps per reception while allowing a 65.5% catch rate. Essentially, this appears to be a case where his PFF grade doesn’t mean he’s a shutdown corner to fear in DFS. The Browns may have one of those in slot corner Briean Boddy-Calhoun though. Despite playing all seven games, he’s only been targeted an absurdly-low five times, allowing him to lead the league with 0.1 yards per cover snap and 54.5 cover snaps per reception. He was forced to the outside a little more than normal with McCourty out against the Titans last week but he still defended 18 routes in the slot. Eric Decker, who worked into his coverage on the outside and in the slot, finished with a blank sheet with just two targets. That sets up a daunting challenge for Adam Thielen this weekend whether Diggs is in or not. Tight end Kyle Rudolph could see an uptick in targets if Diggs remains sidelined and he’ll have the best matchup of the bunch with the Browns giving up the second-most PPR points to his position this season.
Other tagged players: Michael Floyd, Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph Buccaneers DE Noah Spence placed on IR
Spence has played through a shoulder injury since Week 2 and the Bucs have decided to put him on the IR to focus on rehab. Tampa will likely give more snaps to William Gholston and Ryan Russell in his absence. While Gholston hasn’t been able to generate any pressure – just two total this season – Russell has been more productive with seven, providing him a pass rushing productivity rate of 6.3 (slightly above Spence’s 5.5). As a unit, the Bucs are dead last in adjusted sack rate (per FO). Robert Ayers has been the top performer in the area, ranking 27th with a 10.2 PRP rate but he’s only come away with one sack. Since Mitch Trubisky took over as Chicago’s starters he’s had a tough pass-rush schedule, facing Carolina (second), Minnesota (eighth), and Baltimore (14th). His offensive line performed poorly during that stretch, allowing eight sacks (seventh-most), but they should be much more successful in Week 8 against this Bucs unit.
Update: Panthers LB Luke Kuechly remains in concussion protocol
Beat writer Joe Person believed Kuechly’s presence at practice today suggested he had cleared the protocol but Ian Rapoport disputed that claim. Either way, Kuechly is practicing Wednesday and appears to be on track to play this Sunday against the Bucs. PFF’s sixth-ranked LB would provide a nice boost for the already-strong Panthers rushing defense. Even without Kuechly against the Bears in Week 7, they held Jordan Howard to 65 rushing yards on 21 attempts. As a team, they’re fifth in rush DVOA while their line ranks eighth in adjusted line yards (3.78). Not surprisingly, they’ve given up the seventh-fewest PPR points to RBs this season. Doug Martin, who recorded a season-high 22 touches last week, will have his work cut out for him against this group – it’ll be even tougher if Kuechly suits up.
Panthers LB Luke Kuechly cleared the concussion protocol
Kuechly is practicing Wednesday and appears to be on track to play this Sunday against the Bucs. PFF’s sixth-ranked LB would provide a nice boost for the already-strong Panthers rushing defense. Even without Kuechly against the Bears in Week 7, they held Jordan Howard to 65 rushing yards on 21 attempts. As a team, they’re fifth in rush DVOA while their line ranks eighth in adjusted line yards (3.78). Not surprisingly, they’ve given up the seventh-fewest PPR points to RBs this season. Doug Martin, who recorded a season-high 22 touches last week, will have his work cut out for him against this group – it’ll be even tougher if Kuechly suits up.
Other tagged players: Doug Martin Browns DE Myles Garrett placed in concussion protocol
Garrett entered the protocol Tuesday after coming down with concussion-like symptoms. Browns reporter Mary Kay Cabot believes “there’s a good chance” he sits out this weekend’s game against the Vikings. Garrett has been a beast rushing the passer. Since making his pro debut in Week 5, he’s fourth in the league with a 15.4 pass rushing productivity rate (per PFF) while being credited with four sacks and 12 total pressures. His absence would be a clear downgrade for the Browns defense against a solid offensive line – the Vikings are currently 11th in pass blocking efficiency and they’ve been charged with the fewest sacks (4).
The Volume and Talent Are There -- This Week the Production Will Be Too
I’m a Seahawks fan and Jimmy Graham has really been dropping the ball lately (literally). Every time I watch this team play, it seems like I see Graham blow a surefire long pass or red-zone target, but this is a great time for him to get things right. He draws a matchup against the Texans, and while they’re ranked near the top of the league in DVOA, they’re also giving up the second-highest percentage of targets to opposing TEs (28.49%). Graham has the sixth-most targets of all tight ends on the slate (40) and had six this last weekend. He also leads all TEs in red-zone targets with 10. Graham has multi-TD and 100+-yard upside in this type of matchup, and his price is only $4,600 on DK this week. He has a decent shot at to be the highest scoring TE on the entire slate. Ignore Graham’s recent production and realize he’s still one of the most talented TEs in the league.
DeShone Kizer will start Week 8
The Browns have decided to give Kizer, the league-leader in interceptions (11), another shot after benching him in Week 7. He’ll have a tough spot against Minnesota, whose defense has limited opposing QBs to the fifth-fewest fantasy points, the eighth-lowest rating (83.0), and has picked off the eighth-most passes (7). With one of the best pass-blocking tackles, Joe Thomas, out for the year, Kizer will probably face more pressure than normal and the Vikings are eighth in adjusted sack rate (per FO). The rookie QB has struggled to release the ball in a timely manner, averaging the third-longest time to throw (3.07, per PFF) and the longest time to sack (4.25) by a wide margin. Minnesota’s D/ST will likely be a popular option this week and rightfully so.
It's All About the Ownership, Baby!
The Falcons got blitzed in New England on Sunday night, and Devonta Freeman let down the approximately 75% of players who rostered him on the big prime time slate. Throw in recent big time performances by the likes of Le’Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, and Ezekiel Elliott, and it’s very easy to overlook Freeman this week. He draws a fine matchup against the Jets in what should be a favorable game script, giving him plenty of GPP upside at what will almost assuredly be low ownership. There’s lots of potential here.
Give This Man More Touches!
I’m not sure why the Bengals refuse to play Joe Mixon on more than 50% of the snaps on a weekly basis. It’s maddening. He is clearly the most talented running back they have, and maybe a positive game script will earn him some more touches this week at the expense of Giovani Bernard. You can’t risk this in cash games, but the GPP appeal is absolutely there in a game the Bengals could win by double figures. Mixon is also cheap, which carries plenty of value on a week where the value plays leave a lot to be desired.
Building on a Potential MVP Season?
Carson Wentz has been absolutely fantastic for the Eagles this season, as he currently ranks fourth in the league in passing yards, and he leads the league with 17 touchdown passes. That likely isn’t going to stop this week in a dandy of a matchup against the 49ers, who lack any semblance of a reasonable defense. It’s easy to sleep on him with all the other glitzy names at quarterback, but Wentz is a top three QB option on the thin Week 8 slate — and he may stay there for the rest of the season.
A Rising Sleeper?
It is hard to put into words just how bad Terrelle Pryor has been for the Redskins, and the coaching staff is starting to act on those struggles. A week after promising to get Josh Doctson more involved, Jay Gruden gave him a surprise start on Monday against the Eagles, and he played on over 80% of the offensive snaps in the game. While the production wasn’t all that great, this is a decent matchup against Dallas in the game with the highest projected total of the week. Doctson is a fine value option again this week, and he could very easily be one of the best point per dollar producers on the slate.
Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman, and Jeremy Maclin are practicing again Tuesday; Terrance West and Michael Campanaro aren't participating
Benjamin Watson isn’t participating either but he was present yesterday and could be getting a vet’s rest day Tuesday. Overall, Baltimore’s pass-catchers are pretty banged up heading into their Thursday night showdown against Miami. Perriman and Maclin were inactive Sunday and Wallace exited early with a concussion so Flacco peppered Allen with a team-high 11 targets. The Dolphins are allowing the 11th-most receptions to RBs this season (5.8 per game) and ranked 21st in receiving RB DVOA heading into Week 7 – before Matt Forte and Bilal Powell combined for a 7/81/0 line. Allen out-snapped Alex Collins 88 to 38 over the past two weeks without West and he should continue that trend against the pass-funnel Miami defense that ranked second in rush DVOA and 28th against the pass heading into Week 7. At receiver, Chris Moore and Griff Whalen both played 58-of-65 snaps last Sunday. Moore was second on the team with eight looks and hauled in Flacco’s lone TD but he finished with just two receptions. He ended up leading the team in receiving yards despite only having 44 of them. Even if the top three receivers miss another game, it doesn’t seem like he’ll offer much upside. If Maclin is able to make his return, he’ll have a nice matchup with Dolphins slot CB Bobby McCain, who’s given up 16 receptions on 18 targets when lined up inside. It’s not a particularly appealing game though as it features two inept offenses. Not surprisingly, Vegas has given it the lowest total on the board (37.5).
Other tagged players: Breshad Perriman, Jeremy Maclin, Terrance West, Michael Campanaro, Javorius Allen, Alex Collins, Benjamin Watson Cowboys signed K Mike Nugent
With Dan Bailey injured, the Cowboys decided to bring in Nugent to kick for them. He last kicked for the Bengals in 2016, making 79.3% of his attempts while missing all three attempts over 50 yards. Since 2014, Nugent has only connected on two kicks from 50+ despite playing in 45 games. Bailey has made 14 across 54 games during the same stretch.