DFS Alerts
Is This The Cheap Tight End To Own?
While Martellus Bennett has not done much with his looks this year – failing to find the end zone, while remaining under 50 yards in every game on the year – he has three games already with six or more targets, and he has been targeted three times inside the 10-yard-line already (Dez Bryant leads the NFL in this category with six such targets). The Cowboys’ defense is designed to filter targets toward the middle of the field (which we have seen with tight ends and slot receivers week in and week out – with Larry Fitzgerald and Cooper Kupp as notable examples the last two weeks), which should lead to a safe target load for Martellus, and for plenty of opportunities for these looks to pay off. In what may end up as the highest-scoring offense on the main slate, Martellus is a great way to gain inexpensive exposure.
This Wide Receiver Can Pop Off For A Huge Game On The Cheap
With John Brown healthy last week, Jaron Brown played 82 snaps – seemingly cementing his role as one of the primary wide receivers on the pass-heaviest offense in the NFL. In DFS, where volume is one of the most important things to target, it is worth noting that the Cardinals not only rank first in the NFL in passing play percentage, but also rank first in plays per game. Through four games, Carson Palmer has thrown the ball 48 or more times on three occasions. The Eagles allowed 300+ yards through the air each of the last two weeks against similarly pass-heavy offenses (the Giants rank second in passing play percentage, while the Chargers rank fourth), indicating we should see tons of targets and decent efficiency for Jaron once again.
Schefter: Rob Gronkowski (thigh, questionable) will be limited if active Thursday night
He added that it was “no sure thing” that he’ll suit up tonight against the Bucs. If Gronk can’t go, it’ll be an interesting spot for Dwayne Allen. Although the Bucs rank fourth in TE DVOA, they’ve allowed the fifth-most passes to the position (8.4 per game, per FO) and they won’t be at full strength – they’re expected to be without two linebackers and two safeties. There should be plenty of volume through the air as Tampa Bay’s strong defensive line play has set up a pass-funnel defense. Through three games, their DL ranks fifth in adjusted line yards per carry (3.09, per FO) and the Bucs check in at third in rush DVOA. On the other end of the spectrum, they’re 27th in pass defense and have given up the second-most passing yards per game (316). They’ve allowed WR1s the second-most yards per game (114.2) and Brandin Cooks will square off with Vernon Hargreaves the most, who’s allowed the third-most yards per cover snap (2.0, per PFF). With two of their starting linebackers on the shelf, the Bucs have ranked 30th in receiving RB DVOA, setting up a nice spot for James White. The back has accounted for the second-most targets on the team (26) and he’s been very efficient, hauling in 22 of those looks. In a shootout last week with the Panthers, White out-snapped Mike Gillislee by a mile 43 to 18 and could easily do so again in a favorable spot that features the highest total of the week (55 points) and a reasonably close spread for a Patriots game (4.5 in favor of New England).
Other tagged players: Dwayne Allen, James White, Brandin Cooks
Ty Montgomery (ribs) got in a limited practice Thursday
Despite being absent from the portion of practice open to the media, Montgomery was able to participate in the later session in a limited fashion. He remains questionable for Week 5.
Bills CB E.J. Gaines (shoulder) practiced Thursday
He was able to get in limited sessions for the past two days. Gaines could cause problems for A.J. Green and Brandon LaFell on the outside this Sunday. He’s currently PFF’s 18th-ranked CB and he’s limited opposing quarterbacks to a 41.0 passer rating after being targets 23 times (11/95/0 line with a pick). Green lines up on Gaines’ side for roughly 50% of his routes and the receiver will also have to contend with Tre’Davious White on the other side, who’s earned the eight-best cover grade this season. On top of that, this game has the second-lowest total of the week (39.5) and Green has averaged 5.5 fewer PPR points per game when playing at home over the course of his career. LaFell hasn’t topped 30 yards all season, nor has he found the end zone – this doesn’t look like a good spot for him to turn things around, Buffalo currently ranks fourth in WR2 DVOA (per FO).
Other tagged players: A.J. Green, Brandon LaFell Chargers waived K Younghoe Koo, signed Nick Novak
Make sure Koo is out of your lineups this weekend. Novak won’t be available to roster.
Other tagged players: Nick Novak Update: Paul Perkins (ribs) didn't practice Thursday
It’s a downgrade for Perkins after being limited Wednesday; he looks to be on the doubtful side of things for Week 5. ESPN’s Jordan Ranaan believes Perkins will take the week off to heal while Orleans Darkwa and rookie Wayne Gallman both get opportunities as the early-down backs. Coach Ben McAdoo will still have Shane Vereen “play his role” as the passing-down back but he left it open for one of these guys to take over the backfield against the Chargers, adding “if somebody gets hot, we’ll ride him.” Gallman rushed for 42 yards against the Buccaneers in his NFL debut this past weekend. Sadly, that marks the most yardage by any Giants running back in a game this season. With Perkins picking up 1.9 ypc so far this year, the Giants have no choice but to give Darkwa and/or Gallman bigger workloads even if Perkins suits up. The Chargers rush defense ranks 29th in adjusted line yards per carry (5.36, per FO) and is currently allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (163.5). Even so, with a committee approach, it’ll be hard to trust any of the backs to get a large enough volume of touches to capitalize on the favorable matchup.
Other tagged players: Wayne Gallman, Orleans Darkwa, Shane Vereen Jason Pierre-Paul (shoulder, knee) expects to play Sunday
Pierre Paul is dealing with a sprained shoulder but said there’s “no question” he’s playing Sunday against the Chargers. JPP is having a down season so far, earning a 46.7 PFF grade after scoring 86.4 a season ago. He’s only generated nine pressures through four games but if he can return to form, he could get after Philip Rivers this weekend. In 2016, Pierre-Paul ranked 22nd among edge defenders with a 9.2 pass-rushing productivity rate.
Jerick McKinnon (ankle) practicing Thursday
He was forced from Week 4’s game with an ankle injury but he appears on track to suit up this weekend. With Dalvin Cook out, McKinnon is expected to serve as the passing-down and change-of-pace back behind Latavius Murray. While he won’t be an appealing fantasy target himself, his presence on the field would take snaps and touches from Murray.
Other tagged players: Latavius Murray Panthers DE Julius Peppers (shoulder) didn't practice Thursday
He had a rest day Wednesday but remained sidelined today with a shoulder issue that’s lingering from last week. Peppers hasn’t been great defending the run in his 12th season, earning a poor grade of 50.7 from PFF, but he’s still producing when rushing the passer. His 12.5 pass-rushing productivity rate is good for 15th among edge defenders and he’s racked up six sacks (third). His presence on the field could cause problems for Matthew Stafford in Week 5. The quarterback is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in football, currently ranking 29th in pass-blocking efficiency.
Other tagged players: Matthew Stafford Marcus Mariota (hamstring) "did a little bit more" in practice Thursday
Mariota didn’t make huge strides in practice today but he was out there and built upon yesterday’s session. He’s heading towards a game-time decision Sunday. If Mariota ends up being ruled out, Matt Cassel will start. He’s an inaccurate passer with a career completion percentage of 58.8%. That was on display last Sunday when he went 4-for-10 with two picks. Although the Titans have a favorable matchup with a fantasy-friendly secondary, it’s going to be a little hard to trust the pass-catchers to produce with Cassel throwing the ball. At least he has a terrific offensive line protecting him that ranks second in pass-blocking efficiency (per PFF) and the Dolphins defensive line currently ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate (per FO). If Mariota can suit up, he’ll have a great outlook and so will his pass-catchers – Miami has allowed the third-highest passer rating (112.4) and sixth-most passing yards per game (272).
Kenny Golladay (hamstring) isn't practicing Thursday
He wasn’t able to practice yesterday either, putting his Week 5 status in doubt. The receiver was inactive this past Sunday due to a hamstring injury and if he can’t get out there tomorrow, he’ll likely miss another game. T.J Jones operated as the third receiver in his absence and would resume those duties against the Panthers this weekend. He could see corner Daryl Worley a bunch if Worley suits up. The Panthers CB has given up a 116.7 passer rating and a 12/95/2 line on 18 targets (per PFF). It still seems doubtful Jones can get enough targets to produce a strong fantasy game – he picked up five last game as the WR3. Instead, Golden Tate should continue to receive the most looks; his 32 targets represents a 23.2% market share this season. He’ll square off with Captain Munnerlyn in the slot, who’s only been targeted seven times in that position but has allowed a catch each time and has given up the ninth-most cover yards per snap there (1.22, per PFF).
Other tagged players: TJ Jones, Golden Tate John Ross and Tyler Eifert not expected to play Week 5
Beat writer Paul Dehner Jr. said to “count out” Ross and Eifert, which isn’t surprising as neither player has been able to practice the past couple of weeks. That leaves quarterback Andy Dalton with Tyler Boyd as his third receiver, who’s picked up just three targets with Ross sidelined over the past two weeks. Instead of looking Boyd’s way, Dalton will likely provide A.J. Green a huge workload. Following Green’s monster game with 13 targets against the Packers in Week 3, he tallied seven looks against the Browns. The Bengals focused on their tight ends and running backs – 18 combined targets – as many teams do when playing Cleveland and they got out to an early lead, limiting them to 30 pass attempts. Their Week 5 game against Buffalo should be closer, it currently has a three-point spread favoring the Bengals at home. Green will have a tough matchup if corner E.J. Gaines suits up though – Gaines suffered a groin injury Sunday and looks questionable. He’s currently PFF’s 18th-ranked CB and he’s limited opposing quarterbacks to a 41.0 passer rating after being targets 23 times (11/95/0 line with a pick). Green lines up on Gaines’ side for roughly 50% of his routes and he’ll also have to contend with Tre’Davious White on the other side, who’s earned the eight-best cover grade this season. On top of that, this game has the second-lowest total of the week (39.5) and Green has averaged 5.5 fewer PPR points per game when playing at home over the course of his career.
If it Ain't Broke, Don't Fix it
Zach Ertz has seen at least eight targets in every game so far this season (36 total). He has at least five catches in every game and he has amassed at least 80 receiving yards or a touchdown in every game. If he’s not on your radar by this point, I’m not sure he ever will be. I will continue going back to Ertz in cash games and tournaments. The Cardinals have an excellent cover corner in Patrick Peterson, who is likely going to shadow Alshon Jeffery all game. With Jeffery out of the equation, who else is Carson Wentz going to throw the ball to? The Cardinals have historically defended the tight end position well, but are ranked 22nd in DVOA against the position this season. Look for 8-10 targets for Ertz with potentially one or two redzone looks.
A High Floor is Nice in Cash Games, but so is a High Ceiling
In general, we want to target players with high floors in cash games. Our goal is basically to beat half of the field (or close to it), so we don’t want to take players that are extremely volatile. However, most people don’t build enough upside into their cash game lineups. If you have a player that breaks out, he can make up for production that the rest of your lineup fell short on. While T.Y. Hilton is a big play receiver, that doesn’t automatically mean that he has a low floor. He has seen at least six targets in every game this season and he runs a nice mix of short and deep passing routes. He draws arguably his best matchup of the season, as he takes on a shaky Niners’ secondary at home on the fast-track in Indianapolis. The Colts are currently ranked 26th in DVOA against the pass and we know that Hilton has historically performed much better at home than he has on the road.