DFS Alerts
If You Aren't Playing This Guy in Your Cash Games, You Are Just Going to Lose
A big thanks to the great Dan Back for the title of this blurb. Barring an injury, I have a hard time seeing Le’Veon Bell not smash this week against the Jaguars. We often talk about pass funnel defenses, but the Jaguars have the exact opposite. They are ranked first in DVOA against the pass and dead last in DVOA against the run. Last week, we saw Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire run all over this defense. Bell is expensive, but there is no doubt about it – I will be forcing him into my cash game lineups this week. He should see 25+ touches in a favorable matchup at home and potentially even many more if Ben Roethlisberger can’t get anything going through the air. Touchdowns can be a bit volatile in fantasy football, but we have to like Bell’s chances to rack up 100+ rushing yards, 40+ receiving yards, and hopefully find the endzone at least once.
Several injured Packers are practicing again Thursday; Ty Montgomery (ribs) may be sidelined
Coach Mike McCarthy said Montgomery would practice today but he wasn’t seen at the portion open to media. Offensive players Jamaal Williams, Davante Adams, and tackles David Bakhtiari (hamstring) and Bryan Bulaga (ankle) were out on the field along with CBs Davon House (hamstring) and DT Mike Daniels. This is all good news for a Green Bay squad that’s been battling a litany of injuries since the beginning of the season. They’ll be nearing full strength when they take on the Cowboys this weekend. Montgomery is shaping up to be a game-time decision and we may not know his status before lock as their game kicks off at 4:25 eastern.
Other tagged players: Ty Montgomery, Jamaal Williams, Davante Adams
Prime Matchup for a Team on the Ropes
To be honest, I didn’t think I would recommend playing Eli Manning at all this season, but there are a lot of reasons to like him this week. We’ll start with the obvious – the Giants are 0-4 and in desperate need of a win. They are playing at home against a Chargers’ team that has not fared well traveling east for 1 PM ET games in the past. With no semblance of a running game, the Giants have turned to a quick passing game. Manning has thrown the ball 96 times over the last two weeks and that’s a trend that should continue moving forward. The Chargers also like to air it out, as both teams are ranked inside the top four in pass play percentage this season. This should lead to a lot of big plays and a lot of clock stoppages on incompletions. In turn, this should lead to a lot of plays ran on both sides of the ball. Manning may not be the most efficient quarterback, but the volume will be there and he has plenty of weapons at his disposal against a Chargers’ defense that is ranked 20th in DVOA against the pass this season.
Ben Watson (calf), Maxx Williams (ankle), DT Brandon Williams (foot), and CB Jimmy Smith (Achilles) aren't practicing Thursday
None of them practiced Wednesday either. Brandon Williams is a key part of their run defense. He’s expected to be out again, which will be a boost for Marshawn Lynch. Smith has been their best cover corner this season. His absence would help Amari Cooper the most, but the receiver will still have E.J. Manuel throwing to him, which makes it tough to believe he can take produce if Smith is out. Watson is still tentatively expected to play Sunday – he played last week despite missing practice. He’ll be taking on an Oakland defense that currently ranks dead last in TE DVOA. Guys like Vernon Davis (5/58/1) and A.J. Derby (4/75/1) have been successful against them and Delanie Walker led the Titans with seven receptions and 76 yards in Week 1. Although Baltimore’s offense has been inefficient as a whole, Watson has been performing well, hauling in 16-of-18 passes and leading the team with 146 receiving yards. In a favorable spot against the Browns, he took advantage, catching eight passes for 91 yards, and will look to repeat that type of success in another friendly matchup this weekend.
Other tagged players: Baltimore Ravens, Maxx Williams, Amari Cooper, Marshawn Lynch Wendell Smallwood (knee) didn't practice Thursday
It’s his second straight day on the sidelines as he deals with a knee injury. If he can’t suit up Sunday, LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement would see increased workloads. Blount turned in his best game of the season last week against the Chargers, racking up 136 rushing yards on 16 carries. He’s now averaging a ridiculous 5.0 yards after contact this season, the highest rate among all backs with more than one carry (per PFF). He’ll have a tougher matchup this week with the Cardinals. The Chargers’ rush defense ranks 29th in adjusted line yards per carry (5.36, per FO) whereas Arizona ranks fourth in the metric (2.99) and has given up the eighth-fewest fantasy points to RBs this season.
Other tagged players: LeGarrette Blount, Corey Clement Kelvin Benjamin (knee) and Curtis Samuel are practicing Thursday
Samuel is expected to return this weekend after being inactive in Week 4. Benjamin was sidelined yesterday and returned Thursday, the same routine he followed last week. He ended up playing the entire game this past Sunday and eclipsed 100 yards for the first time this season. The receiver will have a much tougher matchup this week, possibly under Darius Slay’s shadow. The corner is allowing the sixth-lowest passer rating among qualifiers (46) and currently ranks as PFF’s 23rd cover corner. As a unit, Detroit has limited quarterbacks to the fifth-lowest passer rating (71.6) and check in at fifth in pass DVOA (per FO).
Other tagged players: Curtis Samuel Sam Bradford (knee) will practice Thursday
The Vikings will test out Bradford’s knee in practice Thursday – he still has a shot to play Monday night. If he’s able to return, he’ll have a decent spot against the Bears, whose pass defense is allowing the sixth-highest passer rating (103.8). It would be an obvious upgrade for Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph. If he can’t go, Case Keenum will get another start. After a monster Week 3 performance against a weak Tampa Bay defense, he posted a poor 219-yard performance with a 53.3% completion rate and zero touchdowns against the Lions. While Chicago has had a worse pass defense on paper than Detroit so far, they’ve also had a stronger strength of schedule – all four of their opponents rank in the top 12 in offense DVOA (per FO). It would be hard to trust Keenum’s pass-catchers if he gets the nod.
Other tagged players: Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph Paul Perkins (ribs) remains limited Thursday, Jason Pierre-Paul (shoulder, knee) isn't practicing
Perkins was working in a limited capacity on the sidelines with DE Olivier Vernon. Meanwhile, Orleans Darkwa and Janoris Jenkins appeared to be full participants. ESPN’s Jordan Ranaan believes Perkins (ribs) will take the week off to heal while Darkwa and rookie Wayne Gallman both get opportunities as the early-down backs. Coach Ben McAdoo will still have Shane Vereen “play his role” on passing downs but he left it open for one of these guys to take over the backfield against the Chargers, adding “if somebody gets hot, we’ll ride him.” Gallman rushed for 42 yards against the Buccaneers in his NFL debut this past weekend. Sadly, that marks the most yardage by any Giants running back in a game this season. With Perkins picking up 1.9 ypc so far this year, the Giants have no choice but to give Orleans Darkwa and/or Gallman bigger workloads even if Perkins suits up. They have a solid spot against the Chargers, whose defense ranks 29th in adjusted line yards per carry (5.36, per FO) and is currently allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (163.5). Even so, it’ll be hard to trust anyone to get a large enough volume to capitalize on the favorable matchup.
Other tagged players: Orleans Darkwa, New York Giants Kenny Britt (knee, groin) isn't practicing Thursday, DT Danny Shelton is participating
It’s the second day in a row Britt will be sidelined; it’s possible they use his injury as an excuse to bench him this weekend. Coach Hue Jackson remains optimistic Shelton will suit up this weekend. If Britt sits, the Jets could stick corner Morris Claiborne on Ricardo Louis. Claiborne has only been targeted 11 times this season and he’s permitting the seventh-fewest yards per cover snap among corners (0.52, per PFF). That would leave slot receiver Rashard Higgins with a comparative advantage in the slot against Buster Skrine, who’s allowing the tenth-most yards per cover snap when in slot coverage (1.14) and a 71.4% catch rate. Britt’s absence could also help Duke Johnson, the team’s leading receiver, and the Jets are allowing the ninth-most receiving yards to RBs (57.1, per FO). Still, it’s an ugly game to target with the second-lowest total on the slate (39.5 points).
Other tagged players: Ricardo Louis, Rashard Higgins, Duke Johnson Ty Montgomery (ribs) and Davante Adams (concussion) will practice Thursday
Coach Mike McCarthy said Montgomery “practiced well yesterday” and they’re going to see how he handles a padded practice today. Adams remains in the concussion protocol but he’s tentatively expected to play this weekend. The Packers are an important team to follow this week as their Week 5 opponent, the Dallas Cowboys, are giving up the eighth-most fantasy points per game this year. Montgomery’s absence would open up opportunities for Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. If Adams can’t go, it would elevate Geronimo Allison into the WR3 role in a favorable spot. It’s also possible these guys are limited in some capacity if they do play. Unfortunately, their game kicks off at 4:25 eastern on Sunday – in the event they end up as game-time decisions, we may not know if either guy is suiting up until after lock.
Other tagged players: Davante Adams LT Tyron Smith (back) won't practice Thursday
Cowboys left tackle Tyron Smith is dealing with back tightness and will be sidelined Thursday. If he misses any time, it would be bad news for Dak Prescott as Smith is currently PFF’s 15th-ranked tackle in pass blocking. They take on the Packers on Sunday, whose defense ranks fourth in adjusted sack rate (per FO).
Marqise Lee (ribs) won't practice Thursday
He missed Wednesday’s session as well and looks questionable for Week 5. The receiver hasn’t found the end zone yet this season and he’s seen his targets decline each week since Allen Robinson’s injury, falling from 12 in Week 2 to three this past Sunday. Meanwhile, Allen Hurns picked up ten looks against the Jets and he’s caught two touchdown passes over the last three games. Unfortunately for Lee, he’s going to see a bunch of Artie Burns on the left side of the formation (if he plays), where he primarily runs his routes. Burns is currently third in yards per cover snap (0.39, per PFF) and despite being targeted 21 times (28th-most), he’s allowed just 61 yards (fourth-fewest). It won’t get much easier for Hurns in the slot; he’ll square off against Mike Hilton, who ranks fourth in yards per cover snap when in slot coverage (0.72). On the positive side, Burns doesn’t shadow, which means Lee would get some run against Joe Haden. The corner has been the weak link of the Pittsburgh secondary, allowing 13 receptions for 181 yards on 19 targets. It’s also worth considering Pittsburgh’s strength of schedule; they’ve faced the Browns, Bears, Ravens, and a Case Keenum-led Vikings squad – three of those teams rank 26th or worse in offense DVOA (per FO). It’s certainly possible, if not likely, that’s inflated their defense’s production and current standings in the top ten in both pass and rush DVOA. Even so, Jacksonville is currently passing on just 47.7% of their passing plays, the second-lowest rate in the league. If anyone is in a position to produce against this defense, it may be Fournette. Dalvin Cook was able to average 5.3 yards per carry in his limited workload – 12 carries as game flow worked against him – and the Jordan Howard-Tarik Cohen duo piled up 218 rushing yards on 25 attempts in Chicago’s overtime victory a week later. They added a combined 9/50/0 receiving line for good measure. This past weekend, Alex Collins produced another strong ypc rate (9.1) but had just nine attempts due to poor game script. If Jacksonville’s defense can keep the game competitive – which may be wishful thinking as it would require their rush defense drastically improve against Le’Veon Bell – the Jaguars will likely continue to feed Fournette in what may be a better-than-it-looks matchup for runners.
Other tagged players: Leonard Fournette, Allen Hurns Matt Forte (toe) isn't practicing Thursday
Robby Anderson isn’t practicing either but he reportedly missed Wednesday’s practice for personal reasons. Forte is still battling turf toe and could miss another week. With the starting RB sidelined in Week 4, Bilal Powell went off for 190 yards and a touchdown on 25 touches. RB3 Elijah McGuire got in on the fun too, racking up 138 yards and a score against a Jacksonville defense that now ranks 32nd in rush DVOA. If Forte is out again this week, they’ll have a tougher matchup with the Browns, whose defense has been surprisingly efficient against the rush, ranking sixth in DVOA and third in adjusted line yards per carry (2.93). Cleveland is setting up to be a pass-funnel defense as they’re 30th in pass DVOA and 25th against receiving running backs. Fortunately, Powell is plenty capable of producing through the air and he could still do some damage this weekend in the featured role. His price has jumped $1.6k on DraftKings but he’ll still have appeal on the full PPR site at $6.2k and should see reduced ownership in tournaments due to the price bump.
John Ross (knee) isn't practicing Thursday
The rookie receiver is working on the Bengals rehab field and looking doubtful for Week 5. That leaves quarterback Andy Dalton with Tyler Boyd as his third receiver, who’s picked up just three targets with Ross sidelined over the past two weeks. With Tyler Eifert not expected to play, Dalton will likely provide A.J. Green a huge workload. Following Green’s monster game with 13 targets against the Packers in Week 3, he tallied seven looks against the Browns. The Bengals focused on their tight ends and running backs – 18 combined targets – as many teams do when playing Cleveland and they got out to an early lead, limiting them to 30 pass attempts. Their Week 5 game against Buffalo should be closer, it currently has a three-point spread favoring the Bengals at home. Green will have a tough matchup if corner E.J. Gaines suits up though – Gaines suffered a groin injury Sunday and looks questionable. He’s currently PFF’s 18th-ranked CB and he’s limited opposing quarterbacks to a 41.0 passer rating after being targets 23 times (11/95/0 line with a pick). Green lines up on Gaines’ side for roughly 50% of his routes and he’ll also have to contend with Tre’Davious White on the other side, who’s earned the eight-best cover grade this season. On top of that, this game has the second-lowest total of the week (39.5) and Green has averaged 5.5 fewer PPR points per game when playing at home over the course of his career.
Other tagged players: A.J. Green Ranaan on Giants backfield: "It looks like Darkwa and Gallman's turn"
ESPN’s Jordan Ranaan believes Paul Perkins (ribs) will take the week off to heal while Orleans Darkwa and rookie Wayne Gallman both get opportunities as the early-down backs. Coach Ben McAdoo will still have Shane Vereen “play his role” as the passing-down back but he left it open for one of these guys to take over the backfield against the Chargers, adding “if somebody gets hot, we’ll ride him.” Gallman rushed for 42 yards against the Buccaneers in his NFL debut this past weekend. Sadly, that marks the most yardage by any Giants running back in a game this season. With Perkins picking up 1.9 ypc so far this year, the Giants have no choice but to give Orleans Darkwa and/or Gallman bigger workloads even if Perkins suits up. Darkwa remains on the injury report with a back issue after being inactive in Week 4, although he thinks he could’ve played last weekend. If both Perkins and Darkwa can’t suit up this weekend, Gallman will be a very interesting value option against the Chargers, whose defense ranks 29th in adjusted line yards per carry (5.36, per FO) and is currently allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (163.5). If Darkwa and/or Perkins are active, it’ll be hard to trust anyone to get a large enough volume to capitalize on the favorable matchup. It’s a situation worth monitoring leading up to Sunday.
Other tagged players: Orleans Darkwa